Research on Early Warning of Banking Crises from the Perspective of Credit Structures

The relationship between credit expansion and banking crises is complex and cannot be fully explained by total credit alone.A systematic analysis of the relationship between the amount and structure of total credit and banking crises is important for an objective prediction of the influence of potential financial risks.This paper,drawing on data from 15 selected countries,delves into the power of credit indicators in the early warning of banking crises from the perspectives of industrial structure,sector structure,and term structure of credit.Various machine learning methods were used,including Logistic Regression,Random Forest,Decision Tree,Support Vector Machine(SVM),Bagging,and Boosting models.The empirical findings indicate that credit expansion plays a crucial role in triggering banking crises.However,total credit is better suited for the early warning of short-term banking crises,whereas credit structure is more useful for the early warning of long-term banking crises.Moreover,in an early warning system,identifying key early warning indicators is more meaningful than merely increasing the number of indicators.Machine learning can somewhat enhance the early warning power,but it may not always be robust.Therefore,more attention should be paid to potential systemic banking crises resulting from an imbalance in credit structure while regulating the total credit threshold.

Management of hypertensive crises in the elderly

Hypertensive crises are elevations of blood pressure higher than 180/120 mmHg. These can be urgent or emergent, depending on the presence of end organ damage. The clinical presentation of hypertensive crises is quite variable in elderly patients, and clinicians must be suspicious of non-specific symptoms. Managing hypertensive crises in elderly patients needs meticulous knowledge of the pathophysiological changes in them, pharmacological options, pharmacokinetics of the medications used, their side effects, and their interactions with other medications. Clevidipine, nicardipine, labetalol, esmolol, and fenoldopam are among the preferred choices in the elderly due to their efficacy and tolerability. Nitroprusside, hydralazine, and nifedipine should be avoided, unless there are no other options available, due to the high risk of complications and unpredictable responses.

Diagnosis and treatment of hypertensive crises in the elderly patients

Hypertension is a common clinical problem in the elderly worldwide and physicians of all types are likely to encounter patients with hypertensive urgencies and emergencies in these patients. Although various terms have been applied to these conditions, they are all characterized by acute elevations in blood pressure and evidence of end-organ injury. Prompt, but carefully considered therapy is necessary to limit morbidity and mortality. A wide range of pharmacologic alternatives are available to the practitioner to control blood pressure and treat complications in these patients. The management of the elderly patient with hypertensive crises needs to include close monitoring and a gentle decline in blood pressure to avoid catastrophic complications, exacerbation of ischemic myopathy, and vascular insufficiency.

Was There a Contagion during the Asian Crises?

The contagion of financial crises surrounding the markets around the world has been in the forefront of academic and public discussions. In this paper, we attempt to study the “contagion effect” of the stock market crises around the world by studying the correlations of global stock returns and volatility. We analyze the daily returns of major stock indexes around the world to discover the timing and path of the transmission of shocks that manifest themselves in stock market returns. We construct VARs of major stock market index returns and volatilities. Our work differs from the literature in analyzing spillover effects between emerging markets and other major stock markets.

Food Crises and Market Mechanisms

Since the 1950s, there have been several food crises with severe humanitarian, economic, political and market-related consequences. In the last decade, food crises occurred during 2007-2008 and again in 2010-2011. In the paper, the main explanations for the food crises are discussed with a focus on the 2007-2008 food crisis, and the main causes are divided into temporary/random and structural/long term and are listed. Although there are a large number of factors, the size of reserves, speculation and bioenergy seem to be significant causes of the rapidly increasing food prices which were a major cause of the food crisis. The consequences of the food crisis in 2007-2008 in particular are discussed, and some major lessons learnt are listed. Also, the present market situation is assessed, the conclusion of which is that there does not seem to be an immediate risk of another food crisis occurring in the short term. However, international cereal reserves are still vulnerable and lower compared to the level in the 1990s.

A Nonlinear Dynamic Model of the Financial Crises Contagions

Employing the Differential Dynamics Method, a nonlinear dynamic model is set up to describe the international financial crises contagion within a short time between two countries. The two countries’ control force depending on the timely financial assistance, the positive attitude and actions to rescue other infected countries, and investor confidence aggregation, and the immunity ability of the infected country are considered as the major reasons to drive the nonlinear fluctuations of the stock return rates in both countries during the crisis. According to the Ordinary Differential Equations Qualitative Theory, we found that there are three cases of financial crises contagion within a brief time between two countries: weak contagion with instability but inhibition, contagion with limit and controllable oscillation, and strong contagion without control in a brief time.

Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices of Parents in the Vaso-Occlusive Crises of the Sick Children in Brazzaville

Objectives: to evaluate the parents’ knowledge of vaso-occlusive crises, to identify their attitudes and practices. Method: a retrospective, transversal, descriptive and analytical study carried out between January and June 2016 at the HUC of Brazzaville. The parents of sickle cell children aged 2 to 17 years, followed for at least one year, were interviewed. Results: a total of 319 parents were interviewed, including 221 women (69.3%) and 98 men (30.7%) with a mean age of 40.8 ± 9 years. They were unschooled 65 cases (20.4%), had primary education 41 cases (12.9%), secondary 149 cases (46.7%) and higher level 64 cases (20.1%). They had one child sickle cell 258 cases (80.9%). They knew sickle cell disease 283 cases (88.7%), its genetic transmission 249 cases (78.1%). The source of information was a health worker 211 cases (66.1%). They had a good knowledge of the vaso-occlusive crisis 101 cases (31.7%). In a vaso-occlusive crisis, they used a health facility 207 cases (64.8%), self-medicated 66 cases (20.7%). Their home practices were good 99 cases (31%), fairly good 135 cases (42.3%) and bad 85 cases (26.5%). Parents aged 25 to 34 (OR = 1.8 95% 1 - 3), secondary (OR = 1.7 95% 1 - 2.7) and with good practices (OR = 4.5 95% 2.7 - 7.5) are those who have a good knowledge of vaso-occlusive crises. Conclusion: The importance and severity of vaso-occlusive crises in the sickle-cell child’s life experience, the crucial role played by parents in their care requires that the information, education and communication of these children be strengthened To improve their quality of life.

Communicating in Product Harm Crises: Do the Right Thing

Food recalls can have very serious aftermath from many points of view: starting from the outbreak consequences on public health, on company’s reputation, sell-out, finance, up to putting at risk the survival of the firm itself. From a formal point of view, a product harm crisis presents similarities with other emergency situations: both of them consist in unpredictable events, often due to unknown or undervalued causes, which can significantly alter normal business and compromise the safety of the company, of its employees and customers. Given the potential damage resulting from a dangerous product crisis, it is surprising that in the food industry alongside mere procedures (often reducible to botched manuals compiled solely because their presence reassures auditors and authorities) there is still little attention to an approach based on a method. Formal corporate procedures (manuals and crisis management plans) are important, but can cause a false sense of security and preparedness, if executives do not possess an adequate crisis management culture, which depends, as well as on experience and training, also on the ability to assume the correct behavioral posture, and which involves psychological, organizational and communicational skills that can not be undervalued. The purpose of this article is to provide a practical approach based on the experience of crisis-management (applied in emergency situations by health professionals, armed forces and civil protection) useful to support food industry during a food recall, in order to avoid the most classic errors that can undermine speed of reaction, corrective measures effectiveness and leadership, in the most delicate moments for a company life. If it is true the way a firm manages the recall affects its impact, it is necessary to assess the fundamental factors to be observed at such times: timeliness, lucidity, responsibility, leadership.

“Blessing or Curse”?Introduction of Bond Notes as an Antidote to Zimbabwe’s Liquidity Crises

The Zimbabwean financial sector has been retrogressive,constrained,and unpredictable since the year 2000,serving for the multiple currency periods(2009-2013)after the demonetization of the domestic dollar.The sector since then has seen a number of commercial banks fail to meet RBZ(Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe)minimum capital requirements,put under curatorship,delisted or liquidated because of a myriad of operational and financial challenges.The objective of this study is to make an assessment of whether or not the introduction of bond notes has been a curse or blessing.The study drew raw data from bank account holders,academics,general public,corporate world and commercial banks in Masvingo for analysis and interpretation.The study established that the majority of people,corporate world and commercial banks were sceptical to embrace the surrogate bond notes because of the uncertainties,operational and financial risks that they paused on the domestic financial markets.It was also discovered that most banks were quick to pay clients’withdrawals in bond notes,deduct US dollar equivalences from their accounts,and distinguish bond notes from US dollars at the point of making deposits and foreign business transactions.It was also realized that there was market indiscipline and trading in bigger US dollar notes in the informal sector and serious shortage of the same notes in the formal sector.The study concluded that the introduction of bond notes to trade parallel to the US dollar brought a serious shortage of cash on formal markets and increases in the general price level of goods and services.The study therefore recommends that the RBZ should completely withdraw the bond notes from the market to accord the US dollar its world market value and restore confidence and discipline in the Zimbabwean financial sector.The study also recommends another option of the adoption of the South African Rand as an interventionist way of solving Zimbabwe’s liquidity crises.

A Comparative Study of the Two Global Financial Crises

This paper examines the differences and similarities of the two global financial crises to find out the fundamental reasons why these two crises have occurred and what we can learn from these two crises. In 2010, we launched a comparative study on the Great Depression of the 1930s and today＇s international financial crisis. This paper is the main summary of the project we have accomplished together. This research draws on the historical event and data to analyze the true reasons behind these two global crises. It concludes that the endogenous conflicts of capitalism, with the inability to self-adjust have caused these crises to take place.

The Pattern of Financial Crises in Greece＇ A Historical Perspective

The main goal of this paper is to trace the long record of financial crises from the perspective of an emerging economy. Two questions are addressed. First, what explains the incidence and severity of financial crises in an emerging market economy？ And, second, what is the role of learning; how does the country learn from its past experience in financial crises to improve institutions and develop better techniques so as to successfully manage successive crisis events？ To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to provide a crisis event taxonomy looking at a systematic categorisation of the crises episodes that the country experienced over its 200-year life span, from its independence and the foundation of the Modem Greek state in 1829 to the recent 2008 crisis. To answer the above questions, I first present evidence on financial crises in Greece over a long time span of two centuries. Greece is chosen as our working template since it is a country with a rich history in financial crises. In particular, we try to identify different varieties of crises events, providing thus a crisis chronology. Moreover, we present some stylised facts on the incidence, the frequency and the severity of crises events. And second, we discuss the key determinants of the crises episodes, closely related to country specific factors, such as credit expansion, fiscal imbalances and the limited reserve coverage of the monetary base.

Continuities of Historical Crises and Discourses of Europe From the “Neo-Latin Past” to the 21st Century

Europe and the EU have been facing many crises and challenges in recent years.From Brexit and rising nationalism to economic problems and unanimous refugee policies,most of them remain unsolved.Instead of moving forward with the European integration project,Europe seems to regress in many instances.Considering this turmoil,it seems all the more important to historicize the affirmative discourse of Europe and to expand the knowledge of the European unification process with novel insights into its history.Only if a broad understanding of its roots and developments prevails,the conflicts of the present can be better evaluated and addressed.Particularly one set of so far neglected sources from Europe’s past serves as guiding light in that respect:the early modern Europe literature written in the Latin language.Between 1400 and 1800,Latin enjoyed a similar status in promoting scientific discoveries,negotiating political affairs and generally communicating on an international level as modern-day English.By offering a brief glance at some historically influential Latin texts from the early modern discourse of Europe,this article will show that the early modern European crises strikingly resemble Europe’s current crises despite the difference in political,social,and economic circumstances.The discourse of Europe has from the beginning been a stable discourse,characterized by the same recurring questions for centuries.When used as reference point for the crises of the 21st century,the prospects for the European integration look better than presumed.

Banking crises and financial system in Turkey

The important part of the macroeconomic policies is related to financial sector. Banking, which is a portion of this sector, takes the most important place in both the operation of economic system and the realization of the institutional or individual activities. It is well known that the foundation of banking system is based on trust, stability and strong capital formation. The birth and development of the banking sector in Turkey is relatively new. If the roots of the Turkish banking are traced, it is seen that the history goes back to the middle of the nineteenth century. Since the establishment of the Republic of Turkey, the targets of the economic development have been tried to be reached through supporting the industry and banking in the leadership of the State. But the obstacles in the financial system have limited the development of the Turkish banking sector. Since the application of the liberalization policies in the markets, particularly after 1980＇s, the banking sector has been one of the most affected sectors from the liberalization. When the fundamental problems of the Turkish banking sector have been analyzed, they can be enumerated as economic instability, being the financier of the public deficits, being too sensitive to the market risks and being fragile, high input costs, inefficient use of capital, defects in the booking system or weaknesses in the control, problems with restructuring, defects in domestic control, lack of risk management and institutional inner-management. In this study, the development of banking sector will be briefly analyzed for determined periods since 1923. The analysis will include the developments which create economic crises, the role of banks in this process, the defects of the banking sector and the financial system, and the effects of crises on the banking sector on the basis of the cause and effect relation. Economic crisis of February 2001 and the banking crisis will be examined in detail. The new arrangements after the 2001 crisis in the banking sector have been overviewed.

Late Miocene Environmental Crises and Their Impacts:Desiccation of the Mediterranean and Its bearing on World Desertification and Hominid Appearance

The ancient Mediterranean was once dried up around6~5.3million years ago.It is a landmark event,which had great impact on global environment and climate.However,few references are available in the literatures on this topic,

WORLD MILITARY SITUATION 2016: ANTAGONISM INTENSIFIES BUT CRISES REMAIN CONTROLLABLE

The world military situation in 2016was complex,military strategies of major countries undergoing profound readjustment,contest in emerging fields increasing and a new round of populism cropping up worldwide which resulted in'Black swan events'happening one after another,major-country contest and geopolitical conflicts piling up and local

Frequent Crises Usher in Deepgoing Adjustments

The past year witnessed an extremely complicated world scene characterised byemergence of frequent crises accompanied by deepgoing adjustments as well asof fierce competition coupled with strengthening cooperation. The dangers of finan-cial storms, economic recession, political turmoils and military jeopardies emergingat the turn of the century bring to the world both big-scale tensions on the negativeside and unusual early warnings on the positive side. The tendencies toward glob-alization, multi-polarization and a new-type relationship among nations have

A Discussion on Forewarning and Management of Crises to Vocational and Technical School

Some vocational and technical schools, facing every kind of crises, should have scientific forewarning and management methods to resolve these problems. After classifying the crises and analyzing the cause, this paper makes use of the modem-forewarning and management theories to discuss the forewarning and management method of the crises of the vocational and technical school.

Education Under Siege: Exploring How International Economic Sanctions Create Crises of Pedagogy

Purpose:This article examines the adverse impact of international economic sanctions on pedagogy.The article considers the contemporary times as a period of misinformation,false news,and untruths.Utilizing anti-hegemonic literature,international economic sanctions are viewed as neoliberalism's instrument of coercion,a Western weapon used to enforce Western values on thosewithdifferentperceptions toward thefreemarket system.Design/Approach/Methods:This article utilizes critical scholarship to unmask authoritarian neoliberalism and a scoping review of sanctioned societies.Critical analytics are deployedto interpret and make sense of the dominant educational policy framework that appears to be against diversity.Findings:Neoliberalism has caused a crisis in pedagogy.Education is under siege as academics and scientific evidence are being disregarded.The call is for pedagogues from all over the world to continue to avail evidence to power by practicing critical education.Literature is utilized to propose critical pedagogy when scientific evidence is disputed,and non-Western epistemologies are considered anachronous.Originality/Value:Linking sanctions and neoliberalism is relativelynovel,as is the contribution of the same lenses to authoritarian neoliberalism.The assault on divergent epistemologies is critical,and the defense of critical scholarship is every academic's duty.The article joins conversations on the neoliberal assault on education and society.

Roles of commodity futures derivatives and financial crises in global food security

Commodity futures have been largely blamed for the price hikes in 2007/mid-2008 and 2010/2011 and the decreased food security around the world,especially in less developed countries.There still exist serious disagreements between most economists and policymakers as to whether this is the case.We run time-series regressions for all samples and subsamples for lower-income,middle-income,and high-income countries respectively.The empirical results show that commodity futures have a more significant negative impact on food security in low-income countries than in middle-income and high-income economies.Financial crises,however,have a significant impact on food security in all the regional divisions as a whole and are seen to exasperate the negative effect of some of the commodity futures on food security.We also find evidence that a certain degree of speculation in some commodities stabilises prices of those commodities as expected by theory.Our results have important policy implications as policymakers must control these speculations but should also be careful not to overregulate the market.

Evolution of Planning Rationality and Its Implications for Urban Planning in Public Health Crises

Rationality is the cornerstone of planning.In recent years,increasing frequency of public health crises and the powerlessness of planning in dealing with such crises have prompted us to rethink the role of planning rationality.This paper argues that both reason as a term specific in philosophy and rationality in decision science are finite,diverse,and complex,and should be understood and applied moderately.Those features also apply to planning rationality,which is based on both philosophical reasoning and decision rationality.In addition,frequent public health crises have greatly undermined the ideal thinking of optimization in a complex city and highlighted the importance of knowledge and methods,and communications and collaborations between professional and non-professional areas.Therefore,it is necessary to put the discussion of planning rationality in terms of its concept,categories,and evolution in the domain of public reason.This can be achieved through joint actions including communication and collaboration.