Financial crisis early-warning model of listed companies based on predicted value

To establish a financial early-warning model with high accuracy of discrimination and achieve the aim of long-term prediction, principal component analysis (PCA), Fisher discriminant, together with grey forecasting models are used at the same time. 110 A-share companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange are selected as research samples. And 10 extractive factors with 89.746% of all the original information are determined by applying PCA, which obtains the goal of dimension reduction without information loss. Based on the index system, the early-warning model is constructed according to the Fisher rules. And then the GM(1,1) is adopted to predict financial ratios in 2004, according to 40 testing samples from 2000 to 2003. Finally, two different methods, a self-validated and a forecasting-validated, are used to test the validity of the financial crisis warning model. The empirical results show that the model has better predictability and feasibility, and GM(1,1) contributes to the ability to make long-term predictions.

The Study of Model About Enterprise Crisis Early-warning Based on Fuzzy Classification and

Toward the problem of judgement of enterprise crisis degree, the paper adopts fuzzy classification and fuzzy recognition method, forms enterprise character objective function in fuzzy condition, and brings forward to solve approach of optimal fuzzy classification center matrix, optimal fuzzy recognition matrix and optimal index weight under different crisis degree. By using the method in enterprise crisis early-warning example, it can distinguish enterprise crisis degree effectively.

Exploring the Contribution of Pharmacists in Addressing the Opioid Crisis through Naloxone Prescriptions and Pharmacist-Led Interventions

The opioid epidemic in the United States continues to take the lives of many individuals, with overdoses continuing to rise every year. Naloxone is an opioid antagonist that is efficacious in temporarily reversing opioid overdoses. Pharmacists play an important role in the accessibility and education of naloxone in both the community and health system settings. Recent efforts, such as co-dispensing naloxone with opioid prescriptions, naloxone training programs, and approval of naloxone to be over-the-counter, have been implemented in hopes to better control the opioid epidemic. Despite the efforts to make naloxone more accessible, there are still some barriers to overcome such as lack of training, cost, stigma, and patient refusal. This review aims to explore the contributions pharmacists have made thus far and define the barriers that still have to be resolved.

Impact of the economic crisis and drug shortage on Lebanese cancer patients’care

BACKGROUND As a consequence of the economic crisis,the sociopolitical instability and the advent of the coronavirus disease-19 pandemic,nested challenges faced the Lebanese healthcare system.These have resulted in critical shortages of essential resources,including medications vital for oncologic patients.AIM To assess the ramifications of the ongoing economic crisis on oncology patient care focusing on our outpatient oncology department.METHODS A questionnaire was distributed during the month of February 2022 to oncology patients in Hôtel Dieu de France University Hospital in Beirut during their outpatient therapy.The primary objective was to assess the far-reaching impact of the economic crisis on patient care and the resulting psychological implications.RESULTS Among 182 interviewed patients,31.87%experienced treatment interruption mainly due to acute drug shortages.Despite 87.91%of the patients benefiting from third-party coverage,69.60%had to self-pay for their medications leading to 69.78%of patients perceiving that healthcare was more difficult to access after 2020.Psychologically,one-third of the patients exhibited symptoms of anxiety and/or depression,with 7 patients reporting suicidal ideations.Notably,37.93%of patients who interrupted cancer treatment reported a history of comorbidities,and 89.66%who altered their treatment cited financial difficulties.CONCLUSION Lebanese cancer patients face complex challenges spanning economic,healthcare,and psychological realms.Income inequalities exacerbated by the economic crisis hindered healthcare access.

Modeling Study of the Evolution of the Climate Crisis over Time

The research proposal has the following scope. In relation to the general objective, the aim is to model the evolution of the climate crisis over time taking as variables global warming, greenhouse gases, atmospheric temperature and ocean temperature, as well as the continuity of the natural phenomena in terms of their measurement, temporality and projection. To achieve the above, the description of the following specific objectives is proposed: - Identify the variables corresponding to the climate crisis, their relationship and correlation between them;- Develop projection models with mathematical and statistical arrangements to project them in a given time and, in this way, - Propose mitigation measures for different unfavorable scenarios. The main variables that are currently directly linked to Climate Change are: CO2, the atmospheric index, precipitation, temperature and wind speed. The correlation that exists between climatic elements is very high, both in historical behavior and projected behavior for 2035, their correlation is estimated at 0.90, 0.95, 0.93 and 91 respectively. The mathematical models used to manipulate the historical and projected analysis of the variables studied: are the normal arrangements, this ensures that the values can be used on a common scale;Then there is the analysis of the historical variables using the linear trend, and finally there is the analysis of the variables projected to the year 2035 using the polynomial trend. In both situations, the direct relationship of greenhouse gases, mainly CO2, is directly related to the variations of the variables over time, which is a very worrying result because we can no longer talk about climate change, but rather about CLIMATE CRISIS. To a large extent, a change in the paradigm of exploitation of the resources of our mother earth is required. Alert in an SOS manner to the great powers, which make reasonable use of technology, for this attenuation measures are proposed.

Identity Crisis and Construction in The Magic Barrel

Based on a detailed analysis of the text of the short story-The Magic Barrel,this article aims to explore the identity crisis and construction of the Jewish nation.Using Leo’s moral choices and dilemmas as clues,it showcases the development of Leo’s spiritual world,explores the protagonist’s love pursuit and sacrifice spirit,and includes discussions on the Jewish classic themes of suffering and redemption,which is hoped to provide a new perspective for the study of this short story.

Research on the Status Quo of Psychological Crisis Among College Students in Ethnic Areas

The article discusses the significance of the research,and outlines the concepts of psychological crisis,its intervention,and psychological crisis among college students,as well as relevant theories on psychological crisis.The research mainly adopts case study and interview methods.Through scientific analysis of psychological crisis cases in four grades of X College in ethnic regions,it summarizes the current situation of crisis psychology among X College students,hoping to provide some first-hand data and research ideas for relevant researchers.

Leveraging Predictive Analytics for Strategic Corporate Communications: Enhancing Stakeholder Engagement and Crisis Management

This study explores the integration of predictive analytics in strategic corporate communications, with a specific focus on stakeholder engagement and crisis management. Our mixed-methods approach, which combines a comprehensive literature review with case studies of five multinational corporations, allows us to investigate the applications, challenges, and ethical implications of leveraging predictive models in communication strategies. While our findings reveal significant potential for enhancing personalized content delivery, real-time sentiment analysis, and proactive crisis management, we stress the need for careful consideration of challenges such as data privacy concerns and algorithmic bias. This emphasis on ethical implementation is crucial in navigating the complex landscape of predictive analytics in corporate communications. To address these issues, we propose a framework that prioritizes ethical considerations. Furthermore, we identify key areas for future research, thereby contributing to the evolving field of data-driven communication management.

An Appraisal of the Major National Dialogue as a Panacea to the Anglophone Crisis in Cameroon

This paper explores the Major National Dialogue organised by Paul Biya from the 30th of September to the 4th of October,2019 as a panacea to the Anglophone.The paper also seeks to find out if this dialogue has been the panacea Cameroonians as a whole and the people of Southern Cameroons in particular have been waiting for to end this conflict.This research uses a qualitative research design.This is because the researcher culled information from Jeune Afrique Economie(2019a),Cameroon Tribune,and from Phoenix.Descriptive analysis was used to analyse the collected data.Descriptive analysis is used to get the views of the public whether the Major National Dialogue was really a panacea to the Anglophone crisis.The analysis revealed that there were two opposing opinions on the holding of this dialogue.The government thinks the dialogue was a panacea to put an end to this crisis because there is ongoing construction work in the war zones,and economic activities have witnessed an increase in the regions as the various production units of the Cameroon Development Corporation(CDC)and Pamol plantations have regained agricultural activities.The Ndawara tea estate now functions without problems.Trans-border trade is on the rise and transportation is fluid,except in the rural areas where the state of the road network is poor to name but these.On the other hand,politicians,political parties like the Social Democratic Front,activists,religious leaders,the affected populations,and Cameroonians at large think that the Major National Dialogue was a monologue and therefore was bound to fail because first,key actors arrested and detained in connection to this crisis were not part of this dialogue.For this reason,they are calling for a genuine and an inclusive dialogue.In addition,they argue that we cannot be talking of peace when fighting is still raging on and people are being killed,houses and schools are being burnt,and people are being kidnapped every day for ransom to mention but these.

Construction of Early-warning Model for Plant Diseases and Pests Based on Improved Neural Network

By studying principles and methods related to early-warning model of plant diseases and using PSO method, parameter optimization was conducted to backward propagation neural network, and a pre-warning model for plant diseases based on particle swarm and neural network algorithm was established. The test results showed that the construction of early-warning model is effective and feasible, which will provide a via- ble model structure to establish the effective early-warning platform.

从CRISIS探究美国经济状况——基于语料库的CRISIS研究

本文以COHA、COCA两个美国语料库提供的大量客观、真实的数据为依据,探讨CRISIS在近200年的历时演变及其搭配词的特征,以期从话语研究中获取美国的经济状况信息。研究表明:(1)从20世纪30年代开始,CRISIS的使用频率突然飙升,而后一直都是美国大众关注的重点;(2)CRISIS的搭配词具有很强的商务性倾向,ECONOMIC CRISIS与FINANCIAL CRISIS共现频率最高;ECONOMIC CRISIS与ENERGY CRISIS分别对应20世纪30年代和70年代美国面临的最严重的两次危机,也成为了这两个时期美国经济的标志性事件;(3)在动词性搭配词方面,最常见的搭配词是FACING。统计对比后发现,应对危机的具有积极语义韵动词在语料库中共现的频率高于具有消极语义韵的动词,这表明美国社会在积极寻求解决危机的途径与方法。

Nutritional Status of Children during and post-Global Economic Crisis in China

Objective To describe the impact of the global economic crisis on the nutritional status of children in China during and after the crisis.Methods Data from 1990 to 2010 were sourced from the National Food and Nutrition Surveillance System.Approximately 16 000 children under 5 years old were selected using a stratified random cluster method from 40 surveillance sites.Anthropometric and hemoglobin measurements for children under 5 were conducted.Nutritional status was determined according to WHO child growth standards.Results Prevalence of underweight and stunting in children under 5 had a downward trend.Underweight prevalence was close to normal （less than 5%）,with prevalence of stunting 12.6% in 2009 and 12.1% in 2010 in rural areas.Prevalence of stunting in infants under 6 months and 6‐12 months old in poorer rural areas increased from 5.7%‐9.1% and 6.7%‐12.5%,respectively,in 2008‐2009.This trend also continued post‐crisis in 2010.Prevalence of stunting in children left behind by mothers was 20%‐30% higher than in children the same age in general and poorer rural areas.Prevalence of anemia in children did not change in rural areas,but prevalence of anemia in all age groups increased in poorer rural areas,especially in children under 24 months old.Level reached 30%‐40% in 2009,and fluctuated in 2010.Conclusion The nutritional status of children under 5 was comparatively stable during and after the global economic crisis,attributable to the Chinese government＇s policy response.The nutritional status in poorer rural areas fluctuated in response to the economic crisis and,thus,relevant action and intervention must be taken immediately to help the most vulnerable population in poorer rural areas.A proper national nutritional strategy for children under 2 years old,including nutrition supplementation for pregnant women and in‐home fortification for complementary feeding,should be initiated.

Changes of TXA_2 and PGI_2 during Postoperative Hypertensive Crisis in Patients with Hypertensive Intracerebral Hemorrhage

In order to explore the changes and the roles of TXA2 and PGI2 during postoperative hypertensive crisis in patients with hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage, 31 cases subject to craniotomy were divided into three groups： group A, 9 patients with postoperative hypertensive crisis; group B, 13 patients without postoperative hypertensive crisis; and group C, 9 patients without history of hypertension and hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage. TXA2, TXB2, 6-keto-PGF1α and PGI2 were measured after operation in the three groups respectively. The postoperative blood pressure in group A, including SBP and DBP, was elevated more obviously than that in the other two groups. TXA2 and PGI2 in group A were significantly higher than those in other two groups （P〈0.01）. Moreover, the ratio of TXB2 to 6-keto-PGF1α in group A was significantly higher than that in other two groups （P〈0.05）. The increase of TXA2 and the relative inadequacy of prostacyclin, especially 6-keto-PGF1α, may play roles in the postoperative hypertensive crisis. And the increased value of TXB2 to 6-keto-PGF1α could provide the basis for diagnosis of postoperative hypertensive crisis.

China agricultural outlook for 2015–2024 based on China Agricultural Monitoring and Early-warning System(CAMES)

The primary goal of Chinese agricultural development is to guarantee national food security and supply of major agricultural products. Hence, the scientiifc work on agricultural monitoring and early warning as wel as agricultural outlook must be strengthened. In this study, we develop the China Agricultural Monitoring and Early-warning System (CAMES) on the basis of a comparative study of domestic and international agricultural outlook models. The system is a dynamic and multi-market partial equilibrium model that integrates biological mechanisms with economic mechanisms. This system, which includes 11 categories of 953 kinds of agricultural products, could dynamical y project agricultural market supply and demand, assess food security, and conduct scenario analysis at different spatial levels, time scale levels, and macro-micro levels. Based on the CAMES, the production, consumption, and trade of the major agricultural products in China over the next decade are projected. The fol owing conclusions are drawn:i) The production of major agricultural products wil continue to grow steadily, mainly because of the increase in yield. i ) The growth of agricultural consumption wil be slightly higher than that of agricultural production. Meanwhile, a high self-sufifciency rate is expected for cereals such as rice, wheat, and maize, with the rate being stable at around 97%. i i) Agricultural trade wil continue to thrive. The growth of soybean and milk im-ports wil slow down, but the growth of traditional agricultural exports such as vegetables and fruits is expected to continue.

Deformation early-warning index for heightened gravity dam during impoundment period

The mechanical parameters of materials in a dam body and dam foundation tend to change when dams are reinforced in aging processes.It is important to use an early-warning index to reflect the safety status of dams,particularly of heightened projects in the impoundment period.Herein,a new method for monitoring the safety status of heightened dams is proposed based on the deformation monitoring data of a dam structure,a statistical model,and finite-element numerical simulation.First,a fast optimization inversion method for estimation of dam mechanical parameters was developed,which used the water pressure component extracted from a statistical model,an improved inversion objective function,and a genetic optimization iterative algorithm.Then,a finite element model of a heightened concrete gravity dam was established,and the deformation behavior of the dam with rising water levels in the impoundment period was simulated.Subsequently,mechanical parameters of aged dam parts were calculated using the fast optimization inversion method with simulated deformation and the water pressure deformation component obtained by the statistical model under the same conditions of water pressure change.Finally,a new earlywarning index of dam deformation was constructed by means of the forward-simulated deformation and other components of the statistical model.The early-warning index is useful for forecasting dam deformation under different water levels,especially high water levels.

Data Processing Model of Coalmine Gas Early-Warning System

The data processing mode is vital to the performance of an entire coalmine gas early-warning system, especially in real-time performance. Our objective was to present the structural features of coalmine gas data, so that the data could be processed at different priority levels in C language. Two different data processing models, one with priority and the other without priority, were built based on queuing theory. Their theoretical formulas were determined via a M/M/I model in order to calculate average occupation time of each measuring point in an early-warning program. We validated the model with the gas early-warning system of the Huaibei Coalmine Group Corp. The results indicate that the average occupation time for gas data processing by using the queuing system model with priority is nearly 1/30 of that of the model without priority.

Characteristics Analysis and the Early-warning Service System of Heavy Fog in Chizhou City

By analyzing the heavy fog data in Chizhou City in recent 50 years(1959-2007),the general rules of meteorological elements variations were found when the heavy fog happened.The meteorological elements included the temperature,humidity,wind direction,wind speed,air pressure and so on.The conceptual models of high-altitude and ground situation were established when the heavy fog happened in Chizhou City.Based on considering sufficiently the special geographical environment in Chizhou City,we found the key factors which affected the local heavy fog via the relative analyses.By using the statistical forecast methods which included the second-level judgment method and regression method of event probability and so on,the forecast mode equation of heavy fog was established.Moreover,the objective forecast system of heavy fog in Chizhou City was also manufactured.It provided the basis and platform which could be referred for the heavy fog forecast,service and the release of early-warning signal.

On the Crisis of Geotectonical Science in China and the World

The crisis in the present-day geotectonics consists in that leading specialists do not recognize the rotation of the Earth. The absolute majority of tectonists base their constructions on the model of an unmovable Earth. The laws of geodynamics differ essentially from the models of the unmovable or rotating Earth. As the Earth does rotate, it is to be hoped that sooner or later the researchers will be made to use a model of the rotating Earth. But the adoption of a new model is not a simple matter. It is necessary to overcome some traditions so that many tectonical regularities can be established anew on “a clean sheet”.

Some Characteristics and Impacts of the Drought and Water Crisis in Southeastern Brazil during 2014 and 2015

Since the austral summer of 2014 southeastern Brazil has been experiencing one of the most severe droughts in decades. This rainfall deficiency has generated water shortages and a water crisis that have affected population and local economies in the metropolitan region of Sao Paulo, the largest megacity in South America. By January 2015, main reservoirs had reached storage levels of only 5% of their 1.3 billion m3 capacity. The meteorological causes of the drought situation were linked to changes in the regional circulation, characterized by a mid-troposphere blocking high that lasted 45 days during the summer of 2014 over southeastern Brazil, something not seen in five decades. The water crisis was aggravated by a combination of lack of rainfall and higher temperatures, the summer of 2014 being the warmest and driest over the Cantareira reservoir system since 1951. Increasing population and water consumption increased vulnerability in the region, and while human-induced warming may not have generated the atmospheric conditions behind the 2014 and 2015 summer droughts in Southeast Brazil, it is more likely that the warm temperatures have affected the severity of the drought and exacerbated the impacts on the population.

Implications of the U.S.Financial Crisis for the Development of China's Telecom Sector

The financial turbulence caused by the U.S.subprime crisis has a far-reaching impact on the global financial system and economic development.Based on an in-depth analysis of the cause of U.S.subprime crisis and its effects on China and global economy,in combi-nation with the current status of China's telecom sector,this article puts forward policy suggestions for the de-velopment and regulation of China's telecom sector.