Prediction and critical transition mechanism for granite fracture:Insights from critical slowing down theory

Rock fracture warning is one of the significant challenges in rock mechanics.Many true triaxial and synchronous acoustic emission(AE)tests were conducted on granite samples.The investigation focused on the characteristics of AE signals preceding granite fracture,based on the critical slowing down(CSD)theory.The granite undergoes a transition from the stable phase to the fracture phase and exhibits a clear CSD phenomenon,characterized by a pronounced increase in variance and autocorrelation coefficient.The variance mutation points were found to be more identifiable and suitable as the primary criterion for predicting precursor information related to granite fracture,compared to the autocorrelation coefficient.It is noteworthy to emphasize that the CSD factor holds greater potential in elucidating the underlying mechanisms responsible for the critical transition of granite fracture,in comparison to the AE timing parameters.Furthermore,a novel multi-parameter collaborative prediction method for rock fracture was developed by comprehensively analyzing predictive information,including abnormal variation modes and the CSD factor of AE characteristic parameters.This method enhances the understanding and prediction of rock fracture-related geohazards.

Study on Critical Slowing Down Phenomenon before the Two Medium-strong Earthquakes in Xinjiang

We study the critical slowing down phenomenon in deformation and groundwater observations before the Nilka-Gongliu MS6. 0 earthquake on November 1, 2011 and Xinyuan-Hejing M S6. 6 earthquake on June 30,2012. Firstly,we remove the annual variation and tendency change of basic data by means of wavelet transform analysis.Secondly,we calculate the autocorrelation coefficients and variance of the critical slowing down phenomenon. Lastly,we try to verify the critical slowing down phenomenon before an earthquake. The result indicates that there was obvious critical slowing down of the records at different stations before earthquakes.

Evidence of Invariance of Time Scale at Critical Point in Ising Meanfield Equilibrium Equation of State

We solve the equilibrium meanfield equation of state of Ising ferromagnet （obtained from Bragg-Williams theory） by Newton-Raphson method. The number of iterations required to get a convergent solution （within a specified accuracy） of equilibrium magnetisation, at any particular temperature, is observed to diverge in a power law fashion as the temperature approaches the critical value. This is identified as the critical slowing down. The exponent is also estimated. This value of the exponent is compared with that obtained from analytic solution. Besides this, the numerical results are also compared with some experimental results exhibiting satisfactory degree of agreement. It is observed from this study that the information of the invariance of time scale at the critical point is present in the meanfield equilibrium equation of state of Ising ferromagnet.

Early warning signals of abrupt temperature change in different regions of China over the past 50 years

In this paper, the early warning signals of abrupt temperature change in different regions of China are investigated. Seven regions are divided on the basis of different climate temperature patterns, obtained through the rotated empirical orthogonal function, and the signal-to-noise temperature ratios for each region are then calculated. Based on the concept of critical slowing down, the temperature data that contain noise in the different regions of China are preprocessed to study the early warning signals of abrupt climate change. First, the Mann-Kendall method is used to identify the instant of abrupt climate change in the temperature data. Second, autocorrelation coefficients that can identify critical slowing down are calculated. The results show that the critical slowing down phenomenon appeared in temperature data about 5-10 years before abrupt climate change occurred, which indicates that the critical slowing down phenomenon is a possible early warning signal for abrupt climate change, and that noise has less influence on the detection results of the early warning signals. Accordingly, this demonstrates that the model is reliable in identifying the early warning signals of abrupt climate change based on detecting the critical slowing down phenomenon, which provides an experimental basis for the actual application of the method.

A study of the early warning signals of abrupt change in the Pacific decadal oscillation

In recent years, the phenomenon of a critical slowing down has demonstrated its major potential in discovering whether a complex dynamic system tends to abruptly change at critical points. This research on the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO) index has been made on the basis of the critical slowing down principle in order to analyze its early warning signal of abrupt change. The chaotic characteristics of the PDO index sequence at different times are determined by using the largest Lyapunov exponent(LLE). The relationship between the regional sea surface temperature(SST) background field and the early warning signal of the PDO abrupt change is further studied through calculating the variance of the SST in the PDO region and the spatial distribution of the autocorrelation coefficient, thereby providing the experimental foundation for the extensive application of the method of the critical slowing down phenomenon. Our results show that the phenomenon of critical slowing down, such as the increase of the variance and autocorrelation coefficient, will continue for six years before the abrupt change of the PDO index. This phenomenon of the critical slowing down can be regarded as one of the early warning signals of an abrupt change. Through calculating the LLE of the PDO index during different times, it is also found that the strongest chaotic characteristics of the system occurred between 1971 and 1975 in the early stages of an abrupt change(1976), and the system was at the stage of a critical slowing down, which proves the reliability of the early warning signal of abrupt change discovered in 1970 from the mechanism. In addition, the variance of the SST,along with the spatial distribution of the autocorrelation coefficient in the corresponding PDO region, also demonstrates the corresponding relationship between the change of the background field of the SST and the change of the PDO.

Ising Model on an Infinite Ladder Lattice

In this paper we propose an Ising model on an infinite ladder lattice, which is made of two infinite Ising spin chains with interactions. It is essentially a quasi-one-dimessional Ising model because the length of the ladder lattice is infinite, while its width is finite. We investigate the phase transition and dynamic behavior of Ising model on this quasi-one-dimessional system. We use the generalized transfer matrix method to investigate the phase transition of the system. It is found that there is no nonzero temperature phase transition in this system. At the same time, we are interested in Glauber dynamics. Based on that, we obtain the time evolution of the local spin magnetization by exactly solving a set of master equations.