The multiple roles of crop structural change in productivity,nutrition and environment in China:A decomposition analysis

China's crop structure has undergone significant changes in the last two decades since 2000,with an increase in the share of cereals,vegetables,and fruit,squeezing out other crops.As a result,land productivity,nutrient supply,and carbon emissions have changed.How to reallocate limited farmland among crops to achieve the multiple goals of agrifood systems becomes an important issue.This study explores the sources of land productivity and nutrition supply growth and carbon emissions reduction,and identifies the multiple roles of crop structural change from 2003 to 2020 based on a decomposition analysis.The results reveal that the growth within crops is still the primary driver in land productivity and nutrition supply and the reduction in carbon emissions.However,structural change also plays various roles at different periods.From 2003 to 2010,crop structural change increased the total calorie supply but lowered land productivity and contributed at least 70%of the total growth of carbon emissions.The crop structure was relatively stable,and their effects were modest from 2010 to 2015.From 2015 to 2020,the crop structural change began to play a greater role and generate synergistic effects in improving land productivity,micronutrient supply,and reducing carbon emissions,contributing to approximately a quarter of the growth of land productivity and 30%of total carbon emissions reduction.These results suggest that strategies for crop structural change should comprehensively consider its multiple impacts,aiming to achieve co-benefits while minimizing trade-offs.

Research Progress on the Growth-Promoting Effect of Plant Biostimulants on Crops

A Plant Biostimulant is any substance or microorganism applied to plants to enhance nutrition efficiency,abioticstress tolerance,and/or crop quality traits,regardless of its nutrient content.The application of Plant biostimulants(PBs)in production can reduce the application of traditional pesticides and chemical fertilizers and improvethe quality and yield of crops,which is conducive to the sustainable development of agriculture.An in-depthunderstanding of the mechanism and effect of various PBs is very important for how to apply PBs reasonablyand effectively in the practice of crop production.This paper summarizes the main classification of PBs;Thegrowth promotion mechanism of PBs was analyzed from four aspects:improving soil physical and chemical properties,enhancing crop nutrient absorption capacity,photosynthesis capacity,and abiotic stress tolerance;At thesame time,the effects of PBs application on seed germination,seedling vigor,crop yield,and quality were summarized;Finally,how to continue to explore and study the use and mechanism of PBs in the future is analyzedand prospected,to better guide the application of PBs in crop production in the future.

Change Point Analysis to Detect the Effect of Pruning Severity on Tree Growth

The effect of pruning severity on tree growth was analyzed by change point detection using segmented regression. The present study applied this analysis to a well-known published data set including diameter growth response, tree age, pruning severity and pretreatment crown size. First, multiple regression analysis was performed to assess the effect of tree age, pruning severity and pretreatment crown size on diameter growth response. Next, segmented regression analysis was performed to assess the effect of pruning severity on diameter growth response. The results of the multiple regression showed that diameter growth response was significantly influenced by pruning severity and pretreatment crown size. The results of the segmented regression showed that in the whole data set, an abrupt change toward a decrease in diameter growth response was detected at 25% of the live crown removed. However, in the group of fully crowned and open-grown, diameter growth response continuously decreased with increasing pruning severity with no significant abrupt change, whereas in the group of 70% - 90% live crown, diameter growth response did not significantly decrease up to the break point (53% crown removed) and then abruptly decreased. This may be the first study to show the numerical evaluation of the effect of pruning severity on tree growth by change point analysis.

Impacts of climate change on the yields of leguminous crops in the Guinea Savanna agroecological zone of Ghana

The impacts of climate change on crop yields are receiving renewed interest,with focus on cereals and staple crops at the regional and national scales.Yet,the impacts of climate change on the yields of leguminous crops in the local context has not been explored.Thus,an in-depth understanding of climate change in the local context may support the design of locally relevant adaptation responses to current and future climate risks.This study examined the impacts of climate variables(annual rainfall,annual average temperature,rainfall indices(rainfall onset,rainfall cessation,and the length of rainy days),and the number of dry days)on the yields of leguminous crops(groundnuts,cowpeas,and soybeans)in the Guinea Savanna agroecological zone of Ghana during the period of 1989-2020.The data were analysed using Mann-Kendall’s trend,Sen’s slope test,correlation analysis,and Multiple Regression Analysis(MRA).The findings revealed that annual rainfall,annual average temperature,rainfall onset,rainfall cessation,and the length of rainy days,and the number of dry days all showed varied impacts on the yields of groundnuts,cowpeas,and soybeans.The trend analysis detected a marginal decrease in the amount of rainfall,rainfall onset,and the number of dry days from 1989 to 2020(P>0.050).Annual average temperature and the length of rainy days substantially varied(P<0.050)from 1989 to 2020,showing an increasing trend.The findings also showed a marked upward trend for the yields of groundnuts,cowpeas,and soybeans during 2005-2020.The climate variables analysed above increased the yields of groundnuts,cowpeas,and soybeans by 49.0%,55.0%,and 69.0%,respectively.The yields of groundnuts,cowpeas,and soybeans fluctuated with the variability of 30.0%,28.0%,and 27.0%from 2005 to 2020,respectively.The three leguminous crops under study demonstrated unpredictable yields due to the variations of annual rainfall,annual average temperature,rainfall onset,rainfall cessation,the length of rainy days,and the number of dry days,which stressed the need for agricultural diversification,changing planting dates,using improved seed variety,and irrigation to respond to climate change.The results of this study implied that climate change considerably impacts crop production in the Guinea Savanna agroecological zone of Ghana,emphasizing the urgency of locally based and farmer-induced adaptation measures for food security and resilient agricultural systems.

Effects of Cropping System Change for Paddy Field with Double Harvest Rice on the Crops Growth and Soil Nutrient

The effects of the cropping system change for paddy field with double harvest rice on crops growth and soil nutrient in red soil were studied. The results indicated that the economic benefit and the ratio of the output to input were all increased in terms of the market price for the crops under various treatments. The greatest economic benefit was obtained in the treatment of paddy-upland rotation, and the corresponding economic benefit was increased by 34.7, 21.4, and 2.2% in comparison with that of control （rice-rice-astragali）, pasture, and upland cropping treatments. The economic benefits in pasture and upland cultivation treatments were increased by I 1.0 and 31.8%, respectively, when compared with that of the control treatment （CK）. The ratio of output to input in pasture, paddy-upland rotation, and upland cropping treatments was enhanced by 0.9, 0.6, and 0.3, respectively, in comparison with that of control. To grow pasture is beneficial for improving soil fertility since the contents of soil organic matter, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and available phosphorus are all enhanced significantly. However, the concentrations of the soil available nitrogen, the total potassium, the available potassium were somewhat reduced in all the treatments, suggesting that increasing the input of nitrogen, particularly potassium, was necessary under the present fertilization level. Based on the conditions of fertility, climate, cultivation, and management of paddy field with double harvest rice in red soil regions, it is feasible to alter the cultivation system of paddy field with bad irrigation condition. In particular, cultivation systems such as pasture and paddy-upland rotation can be selected to extend because better economic benefit and improvement of soil fertility in the purpose region were obtained.

Analysis on Change Tendency of the Precipitation Resource during Growth Period of the Conventional Crops in Plain Area before Taihang Mountains

[Objective] The aim was to study change tendency of the precipitation resource during growth period of the conventional crops in plain area before Taihang Mountains. [ Method] Based on daily precipitation data at Shijiazhuang meteorological station in recent 51 years, average rainfall dudng growth periods of the 9 kinds of conventional crops was obtained. Precipitation tendency dudng growth periods of the 9 kinds of conventional crops in plain area before Taihang Mountains was analyzed by Mann-Kendall nonparametric test. [ Result] Seen from rainfall during growth pedods of the different crops, rainfall was the least during the growth period of winter wheat, followed by summer corn. Rainfall during growth peri- ods of the cotton, oil plant, vegetable, fruit tree, potato, rice and legumes was more. Under different guaranteed rates, precipitation change also had difference. Rainfall change during growth periods of the wheat and corn was bigger, and rainfall change during growth period of the rice was smaller. Change degree of the precipitation during growth periods of the cotton, oil plant, vegetable, fruit tree and legumes was equivalent, while precipitation change during growth period of the potato was the biggest. Seen from change tendency of the precipitation during growth periods of the different crops, precipitation in the growth period of winter wheat was increasing at a speed of 0.62 mm/a. However, precipitation in growth periods of the other crops had a decreasing tendency. Precipitation in the growth periods of summer corn and legumes decreased at the same speed which was 2.11 mm/a, while precipitation in growth periods of the cotton, oil plant, vegetable, fruit tree, potato and rice decreased insignificantly. [ Con dusion] The study laid foundation for determination of the agricultural irrigation water and provided theoretical reference for regional agricultural water-saving.

Changes in Rainfall and Temperature and Its Impact on Crop Production in Moyamba District, Southern Sierra Leone

Rainfall and temperature are the important variables that are often used to trace climate variability and change. A Perception study and analysis of climatic data were conducted to assess the changes in rainfall and temperature and their impact on crop production in Moyamba district, Sierra Leone. For the perception study, 400 farmers were randomly selected from Farmer-Based Organizations (FBOs) in 4 chiefdoms and 30 Agricultural Extension Workers (AWEs) in the Moyamba district were purposely selected as respondents. Descriptive statistics and Kendall’s test of concordance was used to analyze the data collected from the farmers and AEWs. Data for the analysis of variability and trends of rainfall and temperature from 1991 to 2020 were obtained from the Sierra Leone Meteorological Agency and Njala University and grouped into monthly, seasonal and annual time series. Regression analyses were used to determine the statistical values and trend lines for the seasonal and annual time series data. The Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s Slope Estimator were used to analyze the significance and magnitude of the trends respectively. The results of both studies show evidence of climate change in the Moyamba district. A substantial number of farmers and AEWs perceived a decrease in the annual rainfall amount, length of the rainy season, a late start and end of the rainy season, an increase in the temperature during the day and night, and a shortened harmattan period over the last 30 years. Analysis of the meteorological data shows evidence of variability in the seasonal and annual distribution of rainfall and temperature, a decreasing and non-significant trend in the rainy season and annual rainfall and an increasing and significant trend in seasonal and annual temperature from 1991 to 2020. However, the observed changes in rainfall and temperature by the farmers and AEWs partially agree with the results of the analyzed meteorological data. The majority of the farmers perceived that;adverse weather conditions have negatively affected crop production in the district. Droughts, high temperatures, and irregular rainfall are the three major adverse weather events that farmers perceived to have contributed to a substantial loss in the yields of the major crops cultivated in the district. In response to the negative effects of adverse weather events, a substantial number of farmers take no action due to their lack of knowledge, technical or financial capacity to implement climate-sensitive agricultural (CSA) practices. Even though few farmers are practicing some CSA practices on their farms, there is an urgent need to build the capacity of farmers and AEWs to adapt to and mitigate the negative impacts of climate change. The most priority support needed by farmers is the provision of climate-resilient crop varieties whilst the AEWs need training on CSA practices.

Climate Change Modelling and Its Roles to Chinese Crops Yield

Climate has been changing in the last fifty years in China and will continue to change regardless any efforts for mitigation. Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and highly sensitive to climate changes and climate variability. Understanding the interactions between climate change and agricultural production is essential for society stable development of China. The first mission is to fully understand how to predict future climate and link it with agriculture production system. In this paper, recent studies both domestic and international are reviewed in order to provide an overall image of the progress in climate change researches. The methods for climate change scenarios construction are introduced. The pivotal techniques linking crop model and climate models are systematically assessed and climate change impacts on Chinese crops yield among model results are summarized. The study found that simulated productions of grain crop inherit uncertainty from using different climate models, emission scenarios and the crops simulation models. Moreover, studies have different spatial resolutions, and methods for general circulation model （GCM） downscaling which increase the uncertainty for regional impacts assessment. However, the magnitude of change in crop production due to climate change （at 700 ppm CO2 eq correct） appears within ±10% for China in these assessments. In most literatures, the three cereal crop yields showed decline under climate change scenarios and only wheat in some region showed increase. Finally, the paper points out several gaps in current researches which need more studies to shorten the distance for objective recognizing the impacts of climate change on crops. The uncertainty for crop yield projection is associated with climate change scenarios, CO2 fertilization effects and adaptation options. Therefore, more studies on the fields such as free air CO2 enrichment experiment and practical adaptations implemented need to be carried out.

Effects of Climate Change on the Main Food Crops in Summer,Autumn and the Countermeasures Study

By using the full and accurate meteorological data,the changes of major meteorological factors in the half century during 1950-2008 in Xuzhou were analyzed.The results showed that the rainfall increased 23% in summer,and the temperature in winter,spring respectively rose by 1.9 and 2.5 ℃.It illustrated that the climate in Xuzhou had the obvious change.The more rainfall in summer caused that the flood disaster aggravated,and autumn maturing dry crops severely reduced the yield.The warming in winter caused that the wheat grew luxuriantly,and the frost resistance declined.In spring,the premature senility was easy to happen,which affected the high and stable yield.All of these directly affected the food security and peasant increase income.By the change of wheat suitable sowing date and contrasting,analyzing on the yields of paddy rice,dry crops,the necessity of adjusting the crops variety,sowing date and layout was demonstrated.The measures which answered the climate change were given,and the huge economic benefits which were brought by these measures were also analyzed.

Precipitation Change and Agricultural Drought and Flood Degrees during Crop Growth Season in Binzhou City

[Objective]The research aimed to analyze precipitation change and agricultural drought and flood degrees during crop growth season in Binzhou.[Method]Based on monthly rainfall and average temperature data at Binzhou meteorological observatory during March-November of1981-2010,by using linear regression,climatic tendency rate and dry-wet coefficient,precipitation change and agricultural drought and flood degrees during crop growth season of the past 30 years in Binzhou were analyzed from natural precipitation tendency change and satisfaction degree of agricultural water demand during crop growth season.[Result]In the past 30 years,precipitation during growth season in Binzhou presented increasing tendency.Spring,summer and autumn precipitation all increased somewhat,especially summer precipitation.Monthly average rainfall distribution was very uneven,and rainfall in July and August was more.In the past 30 years,average dry-wet coefficient K value during crop growth season in Binzhou was 0.60,it overall belonged to moderate drought climate type,and occurrence frequency of drought was 97%.It belonged to serious drought climate type in spring and autumn and light drought climate type in summer.Dry-wet coefficient presented rising tendency,illustrating that climate was developing toward wet direction.Seen from mean over the years,except humid in July,it was over light drought in other months.[Conclusion]Climate was overall arid during crop growth season in Binzhou,but precipitation somewhat increased in the past 30 years.Therefore,we suggested that artificial rainfall work should be enhanced.

Genetically modified crops and climate change linkages: An Indian perspective

Genetically Modified Crops (GMCs) and Climate Change (CC) are the two most contentious ecological issues the world faces today. Application of transgenics in agriculture is most debated because of its direct and indirect implications. The advertized benefits in the backdrop of the potentially harmful effects on health and environment make this an issue of greater concern. On the other hand, Climate Change is a problem of enormous scale and its after-effects even more grave. The impact of climate change on agriculture, though well researched, is still very uncertain. Further, the introduction and global embrace of a technology with unverified credentials may prove to be an ill-conceived and ill-timed act. The future of GMC technology in India will be both challenging as well as exciting. Therefore any decision on this front should be taken with scientific rigor and logic. Our aim is to explore this complex inter-relationship and provide impetus for further research.

Adaptation Strategies to Mitigate Impact of Climate Change on Food Crops Farming in Oyo State,Nigeria

The research investigated the adaptation strategies to mitigate consequence of climate change on food crops farming in Oyo State.120 respondents were selected for this study using multi-stage sampling procedures.Primary data was collected through interview schedule and analyzed using both descriptive and inferential statistics.Available results indicated that 84.2% of the respondents were male,93.3% of them were married and maize(45.8%),cassava(37.5%)are the mainly crops cultivated.Results also revealed that 70.0% of the respondents have knowledge of climate change with majority(84.17%)of them regularly accessed information on climate change through radio and 88.3%of them claimed to adopt planting crops favorable for the present weather condition as an adaptation techniques to mitigate the consequences of climate change more frequently.Chi-square and Correlation results revealed a significant relationship existed between farmers educational levels(X2=4.861;p=0.003);household size(r=-0.089;p=0.002);knowledge(r=-0.157;p=0.002),and adaptation strategies to reduce the consequences of climate change on the food crops farming.It was recommended that food crop farmers should be provided with better education and sensitized in order for them to be acquainted with adaptation techniques and coping mechanisms that are currently been offered by research.

An Econometric Analysis on the Effect of Climate Change on Wheat Cropping Area in China

[Objective] This study aimed to explore the impact of climate change on wheat cropping by using province-specific historical data during 1996-2007. [Method] We established a panel data econometric model with lagged wheat cropping area and province-specific fixed-effects model to control the unobserved factors. [Result] The results showed that the temperature positively affects wheat cropping area, while precipitation does not have such impact. [Conclusion] The study provided empirical evidence for analysis of the determinants of wheat cropping area in China.

Cointegration analysis with structural changes between consumption and economic growth in China

In order to investigate the existence of a stable long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and consumption in China, the relationship between the gross domestic product （GDP） and consumption in China was investigated by the cointegration analysis method. Using the Engle-Granger （EG） test and considering the possibility of structural changes, the impact of external economic shocks on the long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and consumption in China was analyzed. Analysis results show that without considering structural changes, the EG test cannot detect cointegration in the series subjected to structural changes; in considering structural changes, cointegration is successfully detected by specifying the dummy variable. In addition, the error correction models were constructed in different periods. This study verifies the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and consumption in China, and this relationship has significantly changed in 1989 and 1997, respectively.

Estimation of the potential geographical distribution of a new potato pest(Schrankia costaestrigalis) in China under climate change

Global food security is threatened by the impacts of the spread of crop pests and changes in the complex interactions between crops and pests under climate change.Schrankia costaestrigalis is a newly-reported potato pest in southern China.Early-warning monitoring of this insect pest could protect domestic agriculture as it has already caused regional yield reduction and/or quality decline in potato production.Our research aimed to confirm the potential geographical distributions(PGDs)of S.costaestrigalis in China under different climate scenarios using an optimal MaxEnt model,and to provide baseline data for preventing agricultural damage by S.costaestrigalis.Our findings indicated that the accuracy of the optimal MaxEnt model was better than the default-setting model,and the minimum temperature of the coldest month,precipitation of the driest month,precipitation of the coldest quarter,and the human influence index were the variables significantly affecting the PGDs of S.costaestrigalis.The highly-and moderately-suitable habitats of S.costaestrigalis were mainly located in eastern and southern China.The PGDs of S.costaestrigalis in China will decrease under climate change.The conversion of the highly-to moderately-suitable habitat will also be significant under climate change.The centroid of the suitable habitat area of S.costaestrigalis under the current climate showed a general tendency to move northeast and to the middle-high latitudes in the 2030s.The agricultural practice of plastic film mulching in potato fields will provide a favorable microclimate for S.costaestrigalis in the suitable areas.More attention should be paid to the early warning and monitoring of S.costaestrigalis in order to prevent its further spread in the main areas in China’s winter potato planting regions.

Climate Change Impacts on Agroecosystems in China:Processes,Mechanisms and Prospects

Building a more resilient response system to climate change for sustainable development and reducing uncertainty in China’s food markets,requires access to historical research gaps and mapping future research progress for decision making.However,the lack of quantitative and objective analyses to ensure the stability and development of agroecosystems increases the complexity of agro-climatic mechanisms,which leads to uncertainty and undesirable consequences.In this paper,we review the characteristics of climate change in China(1951–2020),reveal the mechanisms of agroecosystem structure in response to climate,and identify challenges and opportunities for future efforts in the context of research progress.The aim is to improve the scientific validity and relevance of future research by clarifying agro-climatic response mechanisms.The results show that surface temperature,precipitation,and frequency of extreme weather events have increased to varying degrees in major agricultural regions of China in 1951–2020.And they have strong geographic variation,which has resulted in droughts in the north and floods in the south.Moreover,climate change has complicated the mechanisms of soil moisture,Net Primary Productivity(NPP),soil carbon pool,and crop pest structure in agroecosystems.This lends to a reduction in soil water holding capacity,NPP,soil carbon content,and the number of natural enemies of diseases and insects,which in turn affects crop yields.However,human interventions can mitigate the deterioration of these factors.We have also realized that the methodology and theory of historical research poses a great challenge to future agroecosystem.Historical and projected climate trends identified current gaps in interdisciplinary integration and multidisciplinary research required to manage diverse spatio-temporal climate change impacts on agroecosystems.Future efforts should highlight integrated management and decision making,multidisciplinary big data coupling,and numerical simulations to ensure sustainable agricultural development,ecological security,and food security in China.

Effects of Allelochemicals on Root Growth and Pod Yield in Response to Continuous Cropping Obstacle of Peanut

Continuous cropping(CC)obstacle is a major threat in legume crops production;however,the underlying mechanisms concerning the roles allelochemicals play in CC obstacle are poorly understood.The current 2-year study was conducted to investigate the effects of different kinds and concentrations of allelochemicals,p-hydroxybenzoic acid(H),cinnamic acid(C),phthalic acid(P),and their mixtures(M)on peanut root growth and productivity in response to CC obstacle.Treatment with H,C,P,and M significantly decreased the plant height,dry weight of the leaves and stems,number of branches,and length of the lateral stem compared with control.Exogenous application of H,C,P,and M inhibited the peanut root growth as indicated by the decreased root morphological characters.The allelochemicals also induced the cell membrane oxidation even though the antioxidant enzymes activities were significantly increased in peanut roots.Meanwhile,treatment with H,C,P,and M reduced the contents of total soluble sugar and total soluble protein.Analysis of ATPase activity,nitrate reductase activity,and root system activity revealed that the inhibition effects of allelochemicals on peanut roots might be due to the decrease in activities of ATPase and NR,and the inhibition of root system.Consequently,allelochemicals significantly decreased the pod yield of peanut compared with control.Our results demonstrate that allelochemicals play a dominant role in CC obstacle-induced peanut growth inhibition and yield reduction through damaging the root antioxidant system,unbalancing the osmolytes accumulation,and decreasing the activities of root-related enzymes.

How Himalayan communities are changing cultivation practices in the context of climate change

Climate change can have significant impacts on crop yields and food security.This study assessed the linkages between climate change and crop yields to obtain a better understanding on the drivers of food security.The study was conducted in Pasagaun village of Lamjung District in Nepal,where household surveys and focus group discussions(FGDs)were used to collect data including crop cultivation,irrigation facilities,and adaptation strategies.Moreover,climate data(temperature and precipitation)from 1992 to 2020 were collected from the Khudi Bazar meteorological station and crop yield data were obtained from the Agri-Business Promotion and Statistics Division.Trend analysis of temperature and precipitation was conducted using MannKendall trend test and Sen’s slope method,and the results showed an increase in the average temperature of approximately 0.02℃/a and a decrease in the annual precipitation of 9.84 mm/a.The cultivation of traditional varieties of rice and foxtail millet(Kaguno)has vanished.Although,there was no significant impact of the maximum temperature on the yield of rice and maize,the regression analysis revealed that there are negative relationships between rice yield and annual minimum temperature(r=-0.44),between millet yield and annual precipitation(r=-0.30),and between maize yield and annual minimum temperature(r=-0.31),as well as positive relationship between rice yield and annual precipitation(r=0.16).Moreover,average rice yield and millet yield have decreased by 27.0% and 57.0% in 2000-2020,respectively.Despite other reasons for the decrease in crop yield such as the lack of irrigation facilities,out-migration of farmer,and increased pest infestation,respondents have adopted adaptation strategies(for example,shifts in cultivation time and changes in crop types)to minimize the impacts of climate change.More investigation and community-based farming education are needed to understand and alleviate the harmful impacts of climate change on crop yield,as effective adaptation coping strategies are still insufficient.This study provides insights into the adaptation strategies that are necessary to keep food security in the face of climate change.

The Effects of Climate Change on the Planting Boundary and Potential Yield for Different Rice Cropping Systems in Southern China

Based on climate data from 254 meteorological stations, this study estimated the effects of climate change on rice planting boundaries and potential yields in the southern China during 1951-2010. The results indicated a signiifcant northward shift and westward expansion of northern boundaries for rice planting in the southern China. Compared with the period of 1951-1980, the average temperature during rice growing season in the period of 1981-2010 increased by 0.4＆#176;C, and the northern planting boundaries for single rice cropping system （SRCS）, early triple cropping rice system （ETCRS）, medium triple cropping rice system （MTCRS）, and late triple cropping rice system （LTCRS） moved northward by 10, 30, 52 and 66 km, respectively. In addition, compared with the period of 1951-1980, the suitable planting area for SRCS was reduced by 11%during the period of 1981-2010. However, the suitable planting areas for other rice cropping systems increased, with the increasing amplitude of 3, 8, and 10%for ETCRS, MTCRS and LTCRS, respectively. In general, the light and temperature potential productivity of rice decreased by 2.5%. Without considering the change of rice cultivars, the northern planting boundaries for different rice cropping systems showed a northward shift tendency. Climate change resulted in decrease of per unit area yield for SRCS and the annual average yields of ETCRS and LTCRS. Nevertheless, the overall rice production in the entire research area showed a decreasing trend even with the increasing trend of annual average yield for MTCRS.

Inter-provincial Differences in Rice Multi-cropping Changes in Main Double-cropping Rice Area in China: Evidence from Provinces and Households

Since the early 1980 s, the multi-cropping index for rice has decreased significantly in main double-cropping rice area in China, which is the primary double-cropping rice(DCR) production area. This decline may bring challenges to food security in China because rice is the staple food for more than 60% of the Chinese population. It has been generally recognized that rapidly rising labor costs due to economic growth and urbanization in China is the key driving force of the ‘double-to-single' rice cropping system adaption. However, not all provinces have shown a dramatic decline in DCR area, and labor costs alone cannot explain this difference. To elucidate the reasons for these inter-provincial distinctions and the dynamics of rice cropping system adaption, we evaluated the influencing factors using provincial panel data from 1980 to 2015. We also used household survey data for empirical analysis to explore the mechanisms driving differences in rice multi-cropping changes. Our results indicated that the eight provinces in the study can be divided into three spatial groups based on the extent of DCR area decline, the rapidly-declining marginal, core, and stable zones. Increasing labor cost due to rapid urbanization was the key driving force of rice cropping system adaption, but the land use dynamic vary hugely among different provinces. These differences between zones were due to the interaction between labor price and accumulated temperature conditions. Therefore, increasing labor costs had the greatest impact in Zhejiang, Anhui, and Hubei, where the accumulated temperature is relatively low and rice multi-cropping index declined dramaticly. However, labor costs had little impact in Guangdong and Guangxi. Differences in accumulated temperature conditions resulted in spatially different labor demands and pressure on households during the busy season. As a result, there have been different profits and rice multi-cropping changes between provinces and zones. Because of these spatial differences, regionally appropriate policies that provide appropriate subsidies for early rice in rapidly-declining marginal zone such as Zhejiang and Hubei should be implemented. In addition, agricultural mechanization and the number of agricultural workers have facilitated double-cropping; therefore, small machinery and agricultural infrastructure construction should be further supported.