Use of genomic selection and breeding simulation in cross prediction for improvement of yield and quality in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)

In wheat breeding, it is a difficult task to select the most suitable parents for making crosses aimed at the improvement of both grain yield and grain quality. By quantitative genetics theory,the best cross should have high progeny mean and large genetic variance, and ideally yield and quality should be less negatively or positively correlated. Usefulness is built on population mean and genetic variance, which can be used to select the best crosses or populations to achieve the breeding objective. In this study, we first compared five models(RR-BLUP, Bayes A, Bayes B, Bayes ridge regression, and Bayes LASSO) for genomic selection(GS) with respect to prediction of usefulness of a biparental cross and two criteria for parental selection, using simulation. The two parental selection criteria were usefulness and midparent genomic estimated breeding value(GEBV). Marginal differences were observed among GS models. Parental selection with usefulness resulted in higher genetic gain than midparent GEBV. In a population of 57 wheat fixed lines genotyped with 7588 selected markers, usefulness of each biparental cross was calculated to evaluate the cross performance, a key target of breeding programs aimed at developing pure lines. It was observed that progeny mean was a major determinant of usefulness, but the usefulness ratings of quality traits were more influenced by their genetic variances in the progeny population. Near-zero or positive correlations between yield and major quality traits were found in some crosses, although they were negatively correlated in the population of parents. A selection index incorporating yield, extensibility, and maximum resistance was formed as a new trait and its usefulness for selecting the crosses with the best potential to improve yield and quality simultaneously was calculated. It was shown that applying the selection index improved both yield and quality while retaining more genetic variance in the selected progenies than the individual trait selection. It was concluded that combining genomic selection with simulation allows the prediction of cross performance in simulated progenies and thereby identifies candidate parents before crosses are made in the field for pure-line breeding programs.

Extended Range(10–30 Days) Heavy Rain Forecasting Study Based on a Nonlinear Cross-Prediction Error Model

Extended range （10-30 d） heavy rain forecasting is difficult but performs an important function in disaster prevention and mitigation. In this paper, a nonlinear cross prediction error （NCPE） algorithm that combines nonlinear dynamics and statistical methods is proposed. The method is based on phase space reconstruction of chaotic single-variable time series of precipitable water and is tested in 100 global cases of heavy rain. First, nonlinear relative dynamic error for local attractor pairs is calculated at different stages of the heavy rain process, after which the local change characteristics of the attractors are analyzed. Second, the eigen-peak is defined as a prediction indicator based on an error threshold of about 1.5, and is then used to analyze the forecasting validity period. The results reveal that the prediction indicator features regarded as eigenpeaks for heavy rain extreme weather are all reflected consistently, without failure, based on the NCPE model; the prediction validity periods for 1-2 d, 3-9 d and 10-30 d are 4, 22 and 74 cases, respectively, without false alarm or omission. The NCPE model developed allows accurate forecasting of heavy rain over an extended range of 10-30 d and has the potential to be used to explore the mechanisms involved in the development of heavy rain according to a segmentation scale. This novel method provides new insights into extended range forecasting and atmospheric predictability, and also allows the creation of multi-variable chaotic extreme weather prediction models based on high spatiotemporal resolution data.

A prediction technique for single-event effects on complex integrated circuits

The sensitivity of complex integrated circuits to single-event effects is investigated. Sensitivity depends not only on the cross section of physical modules but also on the behavior of data patterns running on the system.A method dividing the main functional modules is proposed. The intrinsic cross section and the duty cycles of different sensitive modules are obtained during the execution of data patterns. A method for extracting the duty cycle is presented and a set of test patterns with different duty cycles are implemented experimentally. By combining the intrinsic cross section and the duty cycle of different sensitive modules, a universal method to predict SEE sensitivities of different test patterns is proposed, which is verified by experiments based on the target circuit of a microprocessor. Experimental results show that the deviation between prediction and experiment is less than 20%.