Forecasting of Cultivated Area in Egyptian Lands Using a Time Series Model for Sustainable Development

The cultivated area is an important component of land resources that has a direct impact on food security. Egyptian cultivated area was estimated to be 3.86 million hectares in 2020. Recently, there has been a decline in cultivated areas, which could be attributed to a number of factors, including climatic changes and urban sprawl, endangering Egyptian sustainable development. So, the aim of the current study was to forecast the values of cultivated areas in Egypt for the next five years using the ARIMA model based on data from 1990 to 2020. The model predicted a decrease in cultivated area in coming years of about 3.06, 3.19, 3.084, 3.082 and 3.21 million hectares, respectively, according to the results. This forecasting will aid the country’s policy development for future land using planning and agricultural production.

Sustainable Intensification and Large-scale Operation of Cultivated Land Use at the Farmers’ Scale:A Case Study of Shandong Province,China

Sustainable intensification of cultivated land use(SICLU) and large-scale operations(LSO) are widely acknowledged strategies for enhancing agricultural performance.However,the existing literature has faced challenges in precisely defining SICLU and constructing comprehensive indicators,which has hindered the exploration of factors influencing LSO within the SICLU framework.To address this gap,we integrated self-efficacy theory into the design of an index framework for evaluating SICLU.We subsequently employed econometric models to analyze the significant factors that impact LSO.Our findings reveal that SICLU can be divided into four key dimensions:intensive management,efficient output,resource conservation,and ecological environment optimization.Furthermore,it is crucial to incorporate belief-based cognitive factors into the index system,as farmers’ understanding of fertilizer and pesticide application significantly influences their willingness to engage in LSO.Moreover,we identify grain market turnover as the most influential factor in promoting LSO,with single-factor contribution rates reaching 70.9% for cultivated land transfer willingness and 62.5% for the total planting areas.Interestingly,unlike irrigation and agricultural machinery inputs,increased labor inputs correspond to larger planting areas for farmers.This trend may be attributed to reduced labor availability because of rural labor migration,whereas the reduction in irrigation and agricultural input is contingent on innovations in production practices and the transfer of cultivated land management rights.Importantly,SICLU dynamically influences LSO,with each index related to SICLU having an optimal range that fosters LSO.These insights offer valuable guidance for policymakers,emphasizing farmers as their central focus,with the adjustment of input and output factors as a means to achieve LSO as the ultimate goal.In conclusion,we propose research avenues for further enriching the SICLU framework to ensure that it aligns with the specific characteristics of regional agricultural development.

Study on the Status of Urbanization Development and the Change of Cultivated Land Area in Nanjing

The urbanization rate of Nanjing has increased in the past 55 years.Its development process can be roughly divided into the reverse urbanization phase,the stagnant development phase,the recovery development phase,the steady development phase,and the accelerated development phase.The area of cultivated land has a decreasing trend at each stage.In 1971 and beyond,urbanization development had a significant negative effect on the area of cultivated land,and the coordination between the two was not high and there was a downward trend.

The Process of Cultivated Land and Water Resource Distribution Changing in Recent Decades in Upstream and Downstream in Shiyang Inland River Basin in Arid Area of Northwest China

Last century 50 - 70 years, the dam construction of Shiyang Inland River Basin (SIRB) profound impact on the distribution of water resources and arable land in the basin. Through data collection, field surveys and remote sensing image interpretation, we analysis the use of land and water resources change process in the middle and lower reaches of SIRB in recent decades. The results show: (1) The cultivated area of SIRB has been an upward trend in recent decades, The whole basin cultivated area has increased total 229,000 hm2 from 1973 to 2010 and mainly in the middle and lower reaches. Midstream increased by 149,700 hm2 accounting for 65.36 percent of total, downstream increased by 70,000 hm2 accounting for 30.70 percent of total. (2) The amount of surface water resources of downstream reduce significantly gradually since dam construction, and the water table sharp decline. While the volume of surface water resources come downstream from the 1950s accounted for 30 to 40 percent of the total gradually reduced to less than 10% in 2012;(3) since the arable land area of middle and lower reaches of SIRB basin substantial increase, so the surface water resource does not meet irrigation needs. Agricultural irrigation relies heavily on exploitation of groundwater to supplement, resulting in Regional Groundwater Depth dropped rapidly, and forming several huge funnel groundwater settlements. 20 years from 1981 to 2001 the groundwater level of midstream dropped from around 5m to around 10m in Wuwei, and in Minqin dam-region of downstream along faster rate of decline in 20 years fell from 8.52 m to 22.68 m. Dam construction project has changed the pattern of the basin water cycle, the middle reaches closure a large number of surface water resources led to downstream sharp decline. Downstream continued exploitation of groundwater formed a few huge funnel groundwater settlements, it caused serious ecological problems. The basin should adjust the industrial structure and develop water saving irrigation, promote a virtuous cycle of water resources, to achieve sustainable development, seek a sustainable development ways conversion natural oasis to artificial oasis efficiency in arid zone.

Occurrence Regularity of Tobacco Cutworm Moth (Spodoptera Litura) in Low-Altitude Tobacco Cultivation Areas in Lincang

[ Objective ] The paper was to study the occurrence and damage regularity of tobacco cutworm moth （Spodoptera Litura Fabricius） in low-altitude area in Lincang city. [ Method] The adult sex attractant monitoring, field investigation of occurrence and damage, and observation of continuous generation development of natural populations were carried out in natural flue-cured tobacco fields. [ Result] In field growth period of flue-cured tobacco under low-altitude of 1 000 - 1300 m, tobacco cutworm moth occurred for 4 generations, the duration of each generation was about 33 d, and the main injurious generation was the third generation. [ Conclusion] The paper provided reference for comprehensive control of tobacco cutworm moth in the low altitude areas.

Rice cultivation changes and its relationships with geographical factors in Heilongjiang Province,China

Rice planting patterns have changed dramatically over the past several decades in northeast China （NEC） due to the combined influence of global change and agricultural policy. Except for its great implications for environmental protection and climate change adaption, the spatio-temporal changes of rice cultivation in NEC are not clear. In this study, we conducted spatio-temporal analyses of NEC＇s major rice production region, Heilongjiang Province, by using satellite-derived rice cultivation maps. We found that the total cultivated area of rice in Heilongjiang Province increased largely from 1993 to 2011 and it expanded spatially to the northern and eastern part of the Sanjiang Plain. The results also showed that rice cultivation areas experienced a larger increase in the region managed by the Reclamation Management Bureau （RMB） than that managed by the local provincial government. Rice cultivation changes were closely related with those geographic factors over the investigated periods, represented by the geomorphic （slope）, climatic （accumulated temperature）, and hydrological （watershed） variables. These findings provide clear evidence that crop cultivation in NEC has been modified to better cope with the global change.

Delineating the rice crop activities in Northeast China through regional parametric synthesis using satellite remote sensing time-series data from 2000 to 2015

Accurate rice area extraction and yield simulations are important for understanding how national agricultural policies and environmental issues affect regional spatial changes in rice farming. In this study, an improved regional parametric syntheses approach, that is, the rice zoning adaptability criteria and dynamic harvest index(RZAC-DHI), was established, which can effectively simulate the rice cultivation area and yield at the municipal level. The RZAC was used to extract the rice area using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer time-series data and phenological information. The DHI was calculated independently, and then yield was obtained based on the DHI and net primary productivity(NPP). Based on the above results, we analyzed the spatial–temporal patterns of the rice cultivation area and yield in Northeast China(NEC) during 2000–2015. The results revealed that the methods established in this study can effectively support the yearly mapping of the rice area and yield in NEC, the average precisions of which exceed 90 and 80%, respectively. The rice planting areas are mainly located on the Sanjiang, Songnen and Liaohe plains, China, which are distributed along the Songhua and Liaohe rivers. The rice cultivation area and yield in this region increased significantly from 2000 to 2015, with increases of nearly 58 and 90%, respectively. The rice crop area and yield increased the fastest in Heilongjiang Province, China, whereas small changes occurred in Jilin and Liaoning provinces, China. Their gravity centers exhibited evident northward and eastward shifts, with offset distances of 107 and 358 km, respectively. Moreover, Heilongjiang Province has gradually become the new main rice production region. The methodologies used in this study provide a valuable reference for other related studies, and the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of the rice activities have raised new attention as to how these shifts affect national food security and resource allocation.

Classification method of cultivated land based on UAV visible light remote sensing

The accurate acquisition of the grain crop planting area is a necessary condition for realizing precision agriculture.UAV remote sensing has the advantages of low cost use,simple operation,real-time acquisition of remote sensor images and high ground resolution.It is difficult to separate cultivated land from other terrain by using only a single feature,making it necessary to extract cultivated land by combining various features and hierarchical classification.In this study,the UAV platform was used to collect visible light remote sensing images of farmland to monitor and extract the area information,shape information and position information of farmland.Based on the vegetation index,texture information and shape information in the visible light band,the object-oriented method was used to study the best scheme for extracting cultivated land area.After repeated experiments,it has been determined that the segmentation scale 50 and the consolidation scale 90 are the most suitable segmentation parameters.Uncultivated crops and other features are separated by using the band information and texture information.The overall accuracy of this method is 86.40%and the Kappa coefficient is 0.80.The experimental results show that the UAV visible light remote sensing data can be used to classify and extract cultivated land with high precision.However,there are some cases where the finely divided plots are misleading,so further optimization and improvement are needed.