A path analysis of the cultivated land change in Hubei Province,China

Hubei Province is one of the critical grain production regions in China with the quantitative cultivated landand good natural condition; it plays an important role in grain security in China. However, owing to rapid economicgrowth, population pressures, anthropogenic activities, and natural disasters, the quality of the cultivated land hassignificantly decreased in recent years and environmental resources are under increasing stress. In order to research onthe mechanism of the change of the cultivated land, this paper analyzes qualitatively the influencing factors of thecultivated land change in Hubei Province from 1978 to 2004, and distinguishes the direct factors from indirect influentones by means of the approach of the path analysis. The result shows that the area of the rent land in the total non-agricultural land, the total population growth and the fixed asset investment are the main factors deciding the change ofthe cultivated land. Meanwhile, the density of the transportation network, the proportion of per capita income of ruralcitizens to that of urban citizens, non-agricultural gross domestic production’s share of the total GDP has a less directeffect but a more indirect influence on the decrease of the cultivated land in Hubei Province. The result means that whilesome factors have less direct influence on the change of the cultivated land, its indirect influence are significant, viceversa. Thus it’s necessary to adopt a comprehensive measurement to protect the cultivated land.

The Path Analysis and Its Application Study on Cultivated Land Change in Hubei Province

On the basis of introducing the principle of path analy- sis, this paper positively analyzes the influence factors of culti- vated land change from 1978 to 2002 in Hubei Province. The relationship between the influence factors and cultivated land change is studied by means of the path analysis. The results show that the construction rearrangement of agriculture, grain security and market mechanism are the main factors that decide the culti- vated land change. Meanwhile, the impact of investment, urbani- zation and benefit gap among the different utilizing ways also leads to the change of cultivated land. The result means that though some factors have less direct influence on the change of cultivated land, their indirect influence is significant or vice versa.

Quantitative Simulation of Dynamic Changes in Cultivated Land in Areas of Reclamation and Returning Cultivated Land to Forest or Pastures under RCPs Climate Scenarios

Northeast China as one of important agricultural production bases is an area under reclamation and returning cultivated land to forests or pastures. Therefore, it is of great practical significance in guaranteeing the sustainable development and national food security to study the spatial and temporal variation of cultivated land in Northeast China under future climate scenarios. In this study, based on data of land use, natural environment and social-economy, dynamics of land system（DLS） model was used to to simulate the spatial distribution and changing trends of cultivated land in the typical areas of reclamation and returning cultivated land to forest or pastures in Northeast China during 2010-2030 under land use planning scenario and representative concentration pathways（RCPs） scenarios quantitatively.The results showed that the area of cultivated land had an overall decreasing trend under the land use planning scenario, but the area of upland field increased slightly from 2000 to 2010 and then declined greatly, while the area of paddy field continuously declined from 2000 to 2030. Under the Asia-Pacific Integrated model（AIM）scenario, the total area of cultivated land had a tendency to increase considerably,with the upland field expanding more obviously and the paddy field declining slightly.In addition, the cultivated land showed a greater decreasing trend under the model for energy supply strategy alternatives and their general environmental impact（MESSAGE） scenario compared to the land use planning scenario. Moreover, analysis on the conversion between different land use types indicated that the reclamation and returning cultivated land to forests or pastures was likely to continue under future scenarios, but the frequency of occurrence could decrease as the time goes by. The conclusions can provide significant decision-making information for the rational agricultural planning and cultivated land protection in Northeast China to adapt to the climate change.

Analysis to the Driving Force Model and Driving Factor on the Utilized Changes of Cultivated Land in Gonghe County

Using gradually regression analysis to establish the driving force model of utilized change of cultivated land in Gonghe County, and using path analysis, correlation analysis, partial correlation analysis and system dynamics method to inspect the effect of driving changing on cultivated land change under different change situations. Driving factors, action mechanism and process of utilized change of cultivated land were analyzed from the county territory scale level. At last, some corresponding policies and measures were put forward.

Analysis to the Driving Force Model and Drives Factor on the Utilized Changes of Cultivated Land in Qinghai Lake Area

Using path analysis, correlation analysis, partial correlation analysis and system dynamics method to study the driving force of cultivated land in Qinghai Lake Area, and using gradually regression analysis to establish the driving force model of utilized change of cultivated land. Driving factors, action mechanism and process of utilized change of cultivated land were analyzed, and the differences during all factors were compared. The study provides some decision basis for sustainable utilization and management of land resources in Qinghai Lake Area.

Forces Driving Changes in Cultivated Land and Management Countermeasures in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area,China

The Three Gorges project accelerates economic development in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.This paper aimed to investigate the distribution,changes and features of cultivated land in this area,analyze the forces driving the changes in cultivated land area,and propose the countermeasures for cultivated land management.Transition matrix was used to analyze the features of cultivated land changes,and quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis were adopted to research the driving forces according to the features of cultivated land changes.Cultivated land in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area mainly lay to the northwest of the Yangtze River,especially the upper reaches.The areas of cultivated land increased from 1996 to 1999,then decreased from 2000 to 2006,and finally increased again from 2007 to 2009.The important forces driving changes in cultivated land included government policies,employment and food security,increasing construction land,agriculture structure adjustment,land rearrangement,inundation.During cultivated land management,firstly,it is necessary to insist on the principle of cultivated land protection,standardize land exploitation and strictly restrict the transformation of cultivated land into non-farming land.Secondly,land rearrangement must be implemented,which can not only increase the area of the cultivated land,but also improve the quality of the cultivated land.Thirdly,it is feasible to intensify eco-agriculture construction to increase the quantity and quality of cultivated land.Fourthly,it is helpful to improve the traditional agriculture production methods to promote cultivated land quality.Lastly,it is important to propagandize cultivated land protection and realize the enormous pressure of cultivated land shortage,making more people obligated to protect cultivated land.

Understanding cultivated land dynamics and its driving forces in northern China during 1983-2001

Based on the long-term serial NOAA/NDVI dataset during 1983-1999 and SPOT/VGT dataset in 2001, the land use/cover change information in the 13 provinces of northern China was extracted based on the analysis of the cultivated landscape characteristics at first, then the effects of human activities on cultivated land process were explored by GIS and the driving forces of cultivated land change were investigated. The conclusions can be drawn as follows： （1） The constant increase of weak ecological function land as desert and cultivated land and the decrease of the ecological function land of forest and shrub were the main characteristics of the land use/cover change in the 13 provinces from 1983 to 1999, which showed the effects on the ecological adjustment fimction. However, such situations were changed to some extent in the 2000s because of the eco-construction policy of the government. （2） From 1983 to 2001, the Barycenter of cultivated land tended to move from northeast to southwest with the topography and transportation situations being the main influences on the cultivated land distribution. It is found that the cultivated land use intensity decreased noticably with the increase of distance from the main communication arteries. （3） The improvement of the people＇s living standard is closely related with the cultivated land change. The structural adjustment in the agricultural land caused by economic development and the improvement of the people＇s living standard ig an important factor affecting the cultivated land change in northern China from 1983 to 2001

Analysis of ecological effects of comprehensive treatment in the Tarim River Basin using remote sensing data

Based on multi-type,multi-temporal remote sensing data,we have monitored recent changes in cultivated land use and vegetation,in sandy areas and salinized desertification in the Green Corridor zone of the main channel of the Tarim River Basin.The results of our investigation show that the ecological environment in the Green Corridor of the main channel of the Tarim River Basin has conspicuously improved from 2002 to 2004.These improvements show up largely in such aspects as an increase in the rate of vegetation cover,a reduction in desertification land areas and a weakening in the intensity of sandy and the salinized land.On the other hand,the cultivated area in the Tarim River Basin significantly increased from 2002 to 2004.The rate of growth in cultivated areas during this period was significantly higher than that from 1999 to 2002.The increase in the use of irrigation resulting from the substantial increase in cultivated areas has a long-term potential restraining effect on the restoration of ecological functions of the Tarim River.