Evaluation and Driving Force Analysis of Cultivated Land Quality in Black Soil Region of Northeast China

Cultivated land is an important natural resource to ensure food,ecological and economic security.The cultivated land quality evaluation(CQE)is greatly significant for protecting and managing cultivated land.In this study,320 counties in the black soil region of Northeast China(BSRNC)represent the research units used to construct the CQE system measuring the soil properties(SP),cultivated land productivity(CLP),ecological environment(EE)and social economy(SE).The total of 19 factors were selected to calculate the integrated fertility index(IFI)and divided into grades.Simultaneously,we used the coupling coordination degree model to comprehensively analyze the spatial pattern of the cultivated land quality(CLQ)in the BSRNC,and use the structural equation model(SEM)to analyze the driving mechanism.The results show the following:1)The CLQ of 262 counties in the BSRNC is in a state of coupling and coordination,and the coupling and coordination degree presents a spatial distribution pattern of‘high in the southwest and northeast,low in the northwest and southeast’.The coordinated development degree of 271 counties is between 0.4 and 0.6,which is in a transitional state between coordination and disorder.2)The CLQ in the BSRNC is generally good,with an average grade of 3.High-quality cultivated land accounts for 58.45%of all counties,middle-and upper-quality cultivated land accounts for 27.05%,and poor-quality cultivated land accounts for 14.49%.3)The SEM analysis shows that the SP,CLP,EE,and SE all influence the CLQ.Among them,the SP has the largest driving force on the CLQ,while the SE has the smallest driving force on it.The results confirm that the main factors affecting the evaluation results are crop productivity level,normalized difference vegetation index,ratio vegetation index,difference vegetation index,and organic carbon content.When implementing protection measures in counties with a low CLQ,considering a balanced coordination of multiple systems and reasonably controlling the quality degradation are important.This study provides the current situation and driving factors of the CLQ in the BSRNC and will play an important role in black soil governance and utilization.

Long-term Dynamics of Cultivated Land Resources and Their Driving Forces of Guyuan City in Upper Reaches of Jinghe River

The land use patterns in Guyuan City,Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region of China,have changed greatly over the years,due to population growth and farming and stock raising development.This study,using 50-year statis-tical data of cultivated land and 14-year spatial data of land use pattern,analyzed the developmental stages,the char-acter,and the spatial variance of farmland in the city,and discussed the driving forces of cultivated land changes based on empirical and conceptual statistical models.First,the change of cultivated land area went through different stages of rapid increase,fluctuating change,decrease and rapid decrease from 1949 to 2004,additionally,social and economic policies in different stages had an important impact on farmland variance.Second,from 1986 to 2000,the quantity of cultivated land increased,but its quality decreased.Third,social and economic factors are determinant factors in culti-vated land transition.Five constructed paths explain cultivated land transition.Factors that have direct or indirect ef-fects on farmland include the economy(Xeco),the population(Xpop),agricultural output(Xagr),and scientific input(Xsci).The sequence of impact was Xeco>Xpop>Xsci>Xagr.Among all these impacts,Xeco was the major positive one,and Xpop was the major negative one.It is urgent to take measures or adopt a policy to stop the vicious cycle in eco-environment and agriculture production.Otherwise,negative patterns of farmland use will increase,and high-quality cultivated land will continue to decline.

Analysis to the Driving Force Model and Driving Factor on the Utilized Changes of Cultivated Land in Gonghe County

Using gradually regression analysis to establish the driving force model of utilized change of cultivated land in Gonghe County, and using path analysis, correlation analysis, partial correlation analysis and system dynamics method to inspect the effect of driving changing on cultivated land change under different change situations. Driving factors, action mechanism and process of utilized change of cultivated land were analyzed from the county territory scale level. At last, some corresponding policies and measures were put forward.

Analysis to the Driving Force Model and Drives Factor on the Utilized Changes of Cultivated Land in Qinghai Lake Area

Using path analysis, correlation analysis, partial correlation analysis and system dynamics method to study the driving force of cultivated land in Qinghai Lake Area, and using gradually regression analysis to establish the driving force model of utilized change of cultivated land. Driving factors, action mechanism and process of utilized change of cultivated land were analyzed, and the differences during all factors were compared. The study provides some decision basis for sustainable utilization and management of land resources in Qinghai Lake Area.

Spatial-temporal Evolution and Driving Force of Cultivated Land Quality in Henan Province

The purpose of this study was to find out the spatial-temporal rules and driving force of cultivated land quality in Henan Province in the last ten years. Agricultural land grading factor evaluation was used to evaluate the cultivated land quality of 2002 and 2012 in Henan Province, and to research the change laws. Method of correlation coefficient was employed to select the driving forces affecting cultivated land quality evolution. The results indicated that the cultivated land quality in Henan Province increased slightly in the last ten years in general, and in spatial there were unchanged regions, increased regions and decreased regions. The cultivated land quality in spatial presented the trend of good becoming better, bad becoming worse, which should be highly valued in cultivated land quality protection and management. Land development and consolidation projects had significant contributions to increasing the cultivated land quality. Driving forces between the sudden change regions and gradual change regions were significantly different. The paper concluded that the research on the spatial-temporal evolution and driving force of cultivated land quality based on cultivated land quality evolution had important academic significance and practical value.

Cultivated Land Changes and Their Driving Forces——A Satellite Remote Sensing Analysis in the Yellow River Delta,China

Taking Kenli County in the Yellow River Delta, China, as the study area and using digital satellite remote sensing techniques, cultivated land use changes and their corresponding driving forces were explored in this study. An interactive interpretation and a manual modification procedure were carried out to acquire cultivated land information. An overlay method based on classification results and a visual change detection method which was supported by land use maps were employed to detect the cultivated land changes. Based on the changes that were revealed and a spatial analysis between cultivated land use and related natural and socio-economic factors, the driving forces for cultivated land use changes in the study area were determined.The results showed a decrease in cultivated land in Kenli County of 5321.8 ha from 1987 to 1998, i.e.,an average annual decrement of 483.8 ha, which occurred mainly in the central paddy field region and the northeast dry land region. Adverse human activities, soil salinization and water deficiencies were the driving forces that caused these cultivated land use changes.

Changes in cultivated land patterns and driving forces in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China, from 1992 to 2015

Changes of cultivated land patterns caused by major water conservation projects are rarely reported. We selected the Three Gorges Reservoir area in China to study the change in area and landscape pattern of the cultivated land in the head,central, and tail areas of the reservoir that took place between 1992 and 2015;we then studied the spatial distribution of the cultivated land in the three parts of the reservoir;finally, we studied the driving forces behind the changes in the cultivated land. The results derived are as follows.(1) During the construction of the Three Gorges Project(TGP, 1992–2015), the area of cultivated land around the reservoir decreased by30.23 million ha. This reduction occurred in phases:the most severe change in cultivated land occurred during the later stage of the project(2002–2010);only 0.62 million ha of cultivated land did not change between 1992 and 2015.(2) Spatial pattern analysis showed that the cultivated land in the three parts of the reservoir changed from a northern distribution to a southern distribution;thus, the area of cultivated land in the north decreased over the time period. The area of cultivated land in the head and tail areas decreased by varying degrees, while it increased in the central area over the 23 years, indicating that the change in cultivated land showed regional differences.(3) The TGP, the policy of reverting farmland to forest,and urbanization were the main driving factors for the change of cultivated land, but there were differences in their impacts at different stages.(4) According to the patch dynamics of the land cover change, the degree of change gradually intensified during the early and later stages of the project and then stabilized during the operational period. Our research provides scientific support for the protection of cultivated land resources and food security in the reservoir area and for the coordination of social and economic development, which is of great significance to sustainable development in the reservoir area.

Understanding cultivated land dynamics and its driving forces in northern China during 1983-2001

Based on the long-term serial NOAA/NDVI dataset during 1983-1999 and SPOT/VGT dataset in 2001, the land use/cover change information in the 13 provinces of northern China was extracted based on the analysis of the cultivated landscape characteristics at first, then the effects of human activities on cultivated land process were explored by GIS and the driving forces of cultivated land change were investigated. The conclusions can be drawn as follows： （1） The constant increase of weak ecological function land as desert and cultivated land and the decrease of the ecological function land of forest and shrub were the main characteristics of the land use/cover change in the 13 provinces from 1983 to 1999, which showed the effects on the ecological adjustment fimction. However, such situations were changed to some extent in the 2000s because of the eco-construction policy of the government. （2） From 1983 to 2001, the Barycenter of cultivated land tended to move from northeast to southwest with the topography and transportation situations being the main influences on the cultivated land distribution. It is found that the cultivated land use intensity decreased noticably with the increase of distance from the main communication arteries. （3） The improvement of the people＇s living standard is closely related with the cultivated land change. The structural adjustment in the agricultural land caused by economic development and the improvement of the people＇s living standard ig an important factor affecting the cultivated land change in northern China from 1983 to 2001

Forces Driving Changes in Cultivated Land and Management Countermeasures in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area,China

The Three Gorges project accelerates economic development in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.This paper aimed to investigate the distribution,changes and features of cultivated land in this area,analyze the forces driving the changes in cultivated land area,and propose the countermeasures for cultivated land management.Transition matrix was used to analyze the features of cultivated land changes,and quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis were adopted to research the driving forces according to the features of cultivated land changes.Cultivated land in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area mainly lay to the northwest of the Yangtze River,especially the upper reaches.The areas of cultivated land increased from 1996 to 1999,then decreased from 2000 to 2006,and finally increased again from 2007 to 2009.The important forces driving changes in cultivated land included government policies,employment and food security,increasing construction land,agriculture structure adjustment,land rearrangement,inundation.During cultivated land management,firstly,it is necessary to insist on the principle of cultivated land protection,standardize land exploitation and strictly restrict the transformation of cultivated land into non-farming land.Secondly,land rearrangement must be implemented,which can not only increase the area of the cultivated land,but also improve the quality of the cultivated land.Thirdly,it is feasible to intensify eco-agriculture construction to increase the quantity and quality of cultivated land.Fourthly,it is helpful to improve the traditional agriculture production methods to promote cultivated land quality.Lastly,it is important to propagandize cultivated land protection and realize the enormous pressure of cultivated land shortage,making more people obligated to protect cultivated land.

Comparative Study on the Human Driving Force of Cultivated Land and Construction Land Use Change in Hubei Province,China

Change trend of cultivated land and construction land in Hubei Province is analyzed.The years 1998-2003 are the reduction period of cultivated land;the years 2004-2007 are the increase period of cultivated land;the years 1988-2002 are the slow growth period of construction land;and the years of 2003 and 2007 are the increase period of construction land.Based on related social economic statistical data in 1988-2007,human driving forces on cultivated land and construction land in Hubei Province are analyzed quantitatively and comparatively by using SPSS software and mathematical statistics method.Result shows that driving force factors have negative driving effect on cultivated land,and positive driving effect on construction land.Driving force factors have significant differences of driving effects on cultivated land and construction land.Three principal components affecting the changes of cultivated land and construction land are policy,population and economic development level,and gap between urban and rural living standards.The three principal components have different degrees of sensitivity on the two land use types and the effects direction are reverse.The other factor driving abilities are relatively weak,and these factors have relatively stronger driving force on construction land than that on cultivated land.It is put forward that Hubei Province should implement rational allocation of land resources and scientific and rational use in order to ensure land security and to realize the sustainable development of regional economy and society based on the intensive land use,the planning policy constraints,and the agricultural and industrial production.

Models for Analyzing the Driving Force of Cultivated Land Supply Change

This paper focuses on a series of quantitative an al ysis models, such as grey relational analysis model, hierarchical cluster an alysis model, principal component analysis model, linear regression model and elastic coefficient model. These models are used to analyze the comprehensive function and effect of driving forces systemically, including analysis on featur es, analysis for differentiating the primary and the secondary, analysis on comp rehensive effects, analysis of elasticity, analysis of prediction. The primary a nd characteristic factors can be extracted by analysis of features and analysis for differentiating the primary and the secondary. Analysis on prediction an d elasticity can predict the area of cultivated land in the future and find out which factors exert great influence on the cultivated land supply.

An Analysis on Driving Forces of Arable Land Resource Change in Jieshou City

By the qualitative and quantitative analysis method,we analyze the driving forces of arable land resource change in Jieshou City and find that the arable land resource change in Jieshou City arises mainly from social and economic driving forces. Based on the social and economic indicator data about arable land resource in Jieshou City,we use principal component analysis to establish evaluation index system,and analyze the driving forces of dynamic arable land resource change in Jieshou City during 2006-2015. It is concluded that Jieshou's arable land change is mainly affected by economic and social factors.

Characteristics of Steep Cultivated Land and the Impact of the Grain-for-Green Policy in China

The Grain-for-Green Policy in China could not only improve China＇s ecological quality, but also influence grain supplies for a short term. Based on data from the detailed nationwide land use survey in 1996 and the steep cultivated land survey update in 2000, a regression model for the driving forces affecting steep cultivated lands was developed, and cluster analysis was used to identify seven steep cultivated land types in order to analyze the grain availability impact of the project with land usage estimates for 2010 and 2030. The results suggested that consecutive days with minimum daily temperature over 10 ℃ and the dominant slope in a county constrained the spatial distribution of steep cultivated lands. In terms of socioeconomic factors, steep cultivated land was a complex interaction of population size, gross domestic production level, and the richness and quality of cultivated lands having slopes less then 15°. The trends for steep cultivated land in 2010 and 2030 were forecast using a driving forces model and China＇s grain security criteria and showed that the Grain-for-Green Policy at the national level would not cause a grain shortage or threaten food security criteria. However, if steep sloped lands were to be retired from production, some regions would need grain supplements as early as 2010. Also, assuming that only 60% of the cultivated land at the national level was needed, population and economic development pressures in 2030 would require some steep cultivated lands to be used for grain production.

ANALYSIS AND MODELING ON CULTIVATED LAND CONVERSION——Case Study of Hebei Province

： With the acceleration of thc urbanization and industrialization of China, it is inevitable that cultivated land convcrts to built-up land for industrial, commercial and residential uses, which would impose pressure both on food security and on the sustainability of urbanization itself tbr such a country with large population and few cultivated land. Based on thc three-time Landsat Thematic Mapper （TM） digital imagcs and statistic data of Hebei Province, the general facts of cultivated land conversion and its driving forces were analyzcd by establishing econometric model in this papcr. Some conclusions werc drawn as the following： during 1985 2000, the rate of cultivated land converting to built-up arca in Hebei was 4.01% or 0.27% pcr year. Of all the converted cultivated land, 20.96% was converted to built-up area and of all the new built-up areas, 83.4% was converted from cultivated land; meanwhile the conversion is uneven not only in time but also in space; factors such as edgc length shared by cultivated land and built-up land, agricultural value per hectare, non-agriculture value per hectarc, GDP, total population, farmer＇s net income per capita and time had significant effects on this conversion.

中部六省耕地生态足迹动态演变及驱动力研究

文章运用生态足迹模型,分析了中部六省耕地生态足迹演化趋势,利用SPSS 26.0探讨了其驱动因素。结果表明:山西等四省人均耕地生态足迹波动上升,湖北等两省相对稳定。河南人均耕地生态承载力呈波动上升趋势,山西呈波动下降趋势,安徽等四省相对稳定。河南等五省耕地资源呈现可持续利用状态,山西则为不可持续状态。中部六省耕地生态足迹变化驱动力和演变趋势存在差异,江西和山西呈现增长-下降-增长的态势,湖南、湖北和河南呈现增长-下降态势。通过提高耕地产出能力、优化配置耕地资源、建设高标准农田等,利于实现耕地可持续性利用。

近20年河南省耕地非粮化时空分异及驱动力分析

耕地是育种成粮的基础条件,研究耕地非粮化的时空演变格局及驱动因素,对于严格保护耕地、保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。基于河南省2000—2020年土地利用数据,利用标准差椭圆模型、热点分析、地理探测器等方法对河南省耕地非粮化水平进行了时空演变分析和驱动因子探测。研究结果表明:(1)2000—2020年间河南省耕地非粮化面积达到3007.10 km2,占现状研究区耕地总面积的2.90%,尤以2015—2020年最多;其中信阳市的耕地非粮化面积最多,达到754.14 km2,占耕地非粮化总面积的25.08%。(2)2000—2020年间耕地非粮化热点区域集中在研究区的西部和南部,耕地非粮化重心主要分布在平顶山市,重心整体向南迁移。(3)河南省耕地非粮化受农业、经济和社会因素的共同影响,农业因素对研究区的耕地非粮化影响力较大,任一影响因子与其他因子交互作用表现出双因子增强和非线性增强效果。河南省耕地非粮化呈现出明显的时空分异特征。

秦岭陕西段耕地质量时空变化特征及其驱动力

为深入研究秦岭耕地资源环境变化规律,基于动态度模型、区位指数、重心迁移模型以及地理探测器等方法,采用陕西省2005~2019年1∶10000县级年度耕地质量等别更新评价以及统计年鉴数据,探究秦岭陕西段6个市、39个县(市、区)、353个乡镇的耕地质量时空变化格局和驱动机制。结果表明:①在时间上,秦岭陕西段在2005~2010年、2010~2015年、2015~2019年间耕地资源数量有所减少,且年平均减少率分别为0.45%、0.12%、0.20%,耕地数量变化趋于平稳,耕地质量等别平均值为10.98,相比陕西省耕地质量等别平均值(11.34)略高,相比全国耕地质量等别平均值(9.96)还处于较低的水平;②在空间上,2005~2019年秦岭陕西段耕地质量呈现出靠近关中平原的北线与西南线以及中部较高,东部、西部较低的分布格局;从区位指数变化来看,自然地理条件较好的西安市和渭南市耕地质量等别较高且为高等地的聚集区,处于陕南地区的汉中市、安康市、商洛市耕地质量较差,中等地、低等地的聚集程度较高;从重心迁移角度来看,高等地重心由周至县迁移至西安市鄠邑区,中等地重心由宁陕县迁移至镇安县,低等地重心由安康市汉滨区迁移至柞水县,然后再迁移至镇安县,坐标迁移量从大到小为低等地、中等地、高等地;③秦岭陕西段耕地质量时空变化的主要驱动力是人类活动,各驱动因子交互作用后解释力增强,共同影响秦岭陕西段耕地质量的变化。

广州市耕地非粮化时空演变及驱动力分析

【目的】耕地非粮化问题给粮食安全带来风险,落实耕地保护措施刻不容缓。广州市作为国内一线城市,耕地非粮化现象普遍。分析广州市耕地非粮化时空演变特征,探究非粮化过程的驱动力,提出防止耕地非粮化的相关建议,可为广州市耕地非粮化的管控提供参考。【方法】运用GIS空间分析法研究广州市耕地非粮化的时空演变过程,运用地理探测器模型研究非粮化的影响因素。【结果】(1)2005—2016年广州市耕地非粮化率由60.46%小幅升高至67.17%,2016—2018年耕地非粮化率由67.17%大幅上升至87.53%,2018—2020年耕地非粮化率由87.53%降低至86.91%,耕地非粮化问题严峻。(2)从区域来看,中心城区耕地非粮化水平普遍高于外围城区。2020年,北部从化区非粮化水平较低,耕地非粮化率为58%,荔湾区、海珠区和天河区非粮化水平最高,耕地非粮化率均为100%。(3)广州市耕地非粮化受多种因素综合影响,影响因子间大多表现出双因子增强关系,少数表现出非线性增强关系。各单因子中城镇化率、人均消费水平、地均GDP平均影响力最高,分别为0.9176、0.7059和0.6674,自然资源禀赋维度的因子影响力相对较小。【结论】广州市整体耕地非粮化水平高,内部经济发展的不平衡深刻影响着耕地非粮化的空间分布格局。应更加重视耕地保护,加强耕地保护制度建设,落实各方责任;要深入完善惠农政策、建立高标准永久基本农田,给予资金和技术支持,助力粮食生产提质增效,提高农民种粮的积极性;要培养专业人才,推动产业融合升级,提高粮食生产的附加收益。从多方面入手防范对耕地的非法侵占,稳定农作物播种面积,防止耕地的非粮化用途,保障粮食增产增收。

广东省耕地资源承载力时空演变及其驱动机理研究

【目的】研究耕地资源承载力及其内在驱动机理,为国家制定耕地政策与高效管护耕地,维持耕地资源可持续利用、保障粮食安全提供参考依据。【方法】运用泰尔指数、变异系数、重心模型等方法分析二级区、市级和县级尺度下广东省耕地资源承载力的时空分异特征,在此基础上利用地理探测器探寻其空间分异的驱动机理。【结果】(1)2000—2020年,二级区、市级、县级尺度下广东省耕地资源承载力的泰尔指数和变异系数均呈现不断增加的趋势且随空间尺度的降低而加剧,县级尺度的耕地资源承载力失衡最显著。(2)研究期内,广东省整体耕地资源承载力不断下降,县级尺度的变化幅度最大,低值区在珠三角地区形成聚集分布,逐渐形成倒“U”型格局;广东省耕地资源承载力重心呈波浪式不断向西南方向移动。(3)广东省市级尺度的驱动因子作用力整体上大于县级尺度,市级尺度下耕地资源承载力受人均农业生产总值的显著影响,县级尺度下则受人均耕地面积的显著影响;广东省耕地资源承载力整体上受社会经济发展和资源禀赋条件的驱动作用最大。(4)不同尺度下的因子相互作用均表现为双因子增强和非线性增强,因子相互作用呈协同增强的效果,自然立地条件与生产要素投入水平等因素能显著增强两两因子间的相互作用力。【结论】建议提高广东省农业生产收入,平衡粮食供需矛盾,助力农业发展,为乡村生产体系提供技术、金融资本,加大财政支持,推动粮食生产转型,以提高广东省耕地资源承载力、保障耕地资源可持续利用。

乱占耕地建房扩张驱动力分析——以A地区为例

为了落实国务院对农村乱占耕地建房问题的整治工作,以A地区为例,摸清A地区乱占耕地建房情况,探究乱占耕地建房的驱动力因素。利用A地区乱占耕地的现状调查与统计数据,结合历年统计年鉴的社会经济数据,分析了A地区2016—2020年乱占耕地建房扩张的过程与特点,采用灰色关联度分析、线性相关分析方法定量分析乱占耕地建房变化的驱动因素。研究结果表明:A地区乱占耕地建房面积变化总体呈现迅速增长趋势,乱占耕地建房的现象突出;各类社会经济驱动因素中,第一产业的不断发展、地区生产总值的增长、人均GDP的增长是影响该地区乱占耕地建房扩张的最重要因素。