Improving cultivated land use eco-efficiency(CLUE)can effectively promote agricultural sustainability,particularly in developing countries where CLUE is generally low.This study used provincial-level data from China t...Improving cultivated land use eco-efficiency(CLUE)can effectively promote agricultural sustainability,particularly in developing countries where CLUE is generally low.This study used provincial-level data from China to evaluate the spatiotemporal evolution of CLUE from 2000 to 2020 and identified the influencing factors of CLUE by using a panel Tobit model.In addition,given the undesirable outputs of agricultural production,we incorporated carbon emissions and nonpoint source pollution into the global benchmark-undesirable output-super efficiency-slacks-based measure(GB-US-SBM)model,which combines global benchmark technology,undesirable output,super efficiency,and slacks-based measure.The results indicated that there was an upward trend in CLUE in China from 2000 to 2020,with an increase rate of 2.62%.The temporal evolution of CLUE in China could be classified into three distinct stages:a period of fluctuating decrease(2000-2007),a phase of gradual increase(2008-2014),and a period of rapid growth(2015-2020).The major grain-producing areas(MPAs)had a lower CLUE than their counterparts,namely,non-major grain-production areas(non-MPAs).The spatial agglomeration effect followed a northeast-southwest strip distribution;and the movement path of barycentre revealed a"P"shape,with Luoyang City,Henan Province,as the centre.In terms of influencing factors of CLUE,investment in science and technology played the most vital role in improving CLUE,while irrigation index had the most negative effect.It should be noted that these two influencing factors had different impacts on MPAs and non-MPAs.Therefore,relevant departments should formulate policies to enhance the level of science and technology,improve irrigation condition,and promote sustainable utilization of cultivated land.展开更多
Sustainable intensification of cultivated land use(SICLU) and large-scale operations(LSO) are widely acknowledged strategies for enhancing agricultural performance.However,the existing literature has faced challenges ...Sustainable intensification of cultivated land use(SICLU) and large-scale operations(LSO) are widely acknowledged strategies for enhancing agricultural performance.However,the existing literature has faced challenges in precisely defining SICLU and constructing comprehensive indicators,which has hindered the exploration of factors influencing LSO within the SICLU framework.To address this gap,we integrated self-efficacy theory into the design of an index framework for evaluating SICLU.We subsequently employed econometric models to analyze the significant factors that impact LSO.Our findings reveal that SICLU can be divided into four key dimensions:intensive management,efficient output,resource conservation,and ecological environment optimization.Furthermore,it is crucial to incorporate belief-based cognitive factors into the index system,as farmers’ understanding of fertilizer and pesticide application significantly influences their willingness to engage in LSO.Moreover,we identify grain market turnover as the most influential factor in promoting LSO,with single-factor contribution rates reaching 70.9% for cultivated land transfer willingness and 62.5% for the total planting areas.Interestingly,unlike irrigation and agricultural machinery inputs,increased labor inputs correspond to larger planting areas for farmers.This trend may be attributed to reduced labor availability because of rural labor migration,whereas the reduction in irrigation and agricultural input is contingent on innovations in production practices and the transfer of cultivated land management rights.Importantly,SICLU dynamically influences LSO,with each index related to SICLU having an optimal range that fosters LSO.These insights offer valuable guidance for policymakers,emphasizing farmers as their central focus,with the adjustment of input and output factors as a means to achieve LSO as the ultimate goal.In conclusion,we propose research avenues for further enriching the SICLU framework to ensure that it aligns with the specific characteristics of regional agricultural development.展开更多
Protection and optimization of cultivated land resources are of great significance to national food security.Cultivated land conversion in northern China has increased in recent years due to the industrialization and ...Protection and optimization of cultivated land resources are of great significance to national food security.Cultivated land conversion in northern China has increased in recent years due to the industrialization and urbanization of society.However,the assessment of cultivated land conversion in this area is insufficient,posing a potential risk to cultivated land resources.This study evaluated the evolution and spatiotemporal patterns of cultivated land conversion in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,China,and the driving factors to improve rational utilization and to protect cultivated land resources.The spatiotemporal patterns of cultivated land conversion in Inner Mongolia were analyzed using the cultivated land conversion index,kernel density analysis,a standard deviation ellipse model,and a geographic detector.Results showed that from 2000 to 2020,the trends in cultivated land conversion area and rate in Inner Mongolia exhibited fluctuating growth,with the total area of cultivated land conversion reaching 7307.59 km^(2) at a rate of 6.69%.Spatial distribution of cultivated land conversion was primarily concentrated in the Hetao Plain,Nengjiang Plain,Liaohe Plain,and the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos urban agglomeration.Moreover,the standard deviational ellipse of cultivated land conversion in Inner Mongolia exhibited a directional southwest-northeast-southwest-northeast distribution,with the northeast-southwest direction identified as the main driving force of spatial change in cultivated land conversion.Meanwhile,cultivated land conversion exhibited an increase-decrease-increase change process,indicating that spatial distribution of cultivated land conversion in Inner Mongolia became gradually apparent within the study period.The geographic detector results further revealed that the main driving factors of cultivated land conversion in Inner Mongolia were the share of secondary and tertiary industries and per-unit area yield of grain,with explanatory rates of 57.00%,55.00%,and 51.00%,respectively.Additionally,improved agricultural production efficiency and the coordinated development of population urbanization and industry resulted in cultivated land conversion.Collectively,the findings of this study indicated that,from 2000 to 2020,the cultivated land conversion in Inner Mongolia was significant and fluctuated in time,and had strong spatial heterogeneity.The primary drivers of these events included the effects of agriculture,population,and social economy.展开更多
It is of great significance to systematically analyze the cultivated land system resilience(CLSR) for the black soil protection and national food security.The CLSR is impacted by planting structure adjustment and cult...It is of great significance to systematically analyze the cultivated land system resilience(CLSR) for the black soil protection and national food security.The CLSR is impacted by planting structure adjustment and cultivated land quality decline,posing major hidden dangers to food security.It is urgent to evaluate the CLSR at multiple spatio-temporal scales.This study took Liaoning Province in the black soil region of Northeast China as an example.Based on the resilience theory,this study constructed the CLSR evaluation system from the input-feedback perspective at the provincial-scale and the city-scale,and used the rank-sum ratio comprehensive evaluation method(RSR) to analyze the key influencing factors of CLSR in Liaoning Province and its 14 cities from 2000 to 2019.The results showed that:1) the time series changes of CLSR at the provincial-scale and the city-scale in Liaoning Province were similar,both showing an increasing trend.2) The CLSR in Liaoning Province presented a spatial pattern of ‘high in the west and low in the east’ at the city-scale.3) There were seven and six main influencing factors of CLSR at the provincial-scale and the city-scale,respectively.In addition to the net income per capita of rural households,other influencing factors of CLSR were different at the provincial-scale and the city-scale.The feedback factors were dominant at the provincial-scale,and the input factors and feedback factors were dominant at the city-scale.The results could provide a reference for the utilization of black soil and draw on the experience of regional agricultural planning and adjustment.展开更多
Cultivated land is an important natural resource to ensure food,ecological and economic security.The cultivated land quality evaluation(CQE)is greatly significant for protecting and managing cultivated land.In this st...Cultivated land is an important natural resource to ensure food,ecological and economic security.The cultivated land quality evaluation(CQE)is greatly significant for protecting and managing cultivated land.In this study,320 counties in the black soil region of Northeast China(BSRNC)represent the research units used to construct the CQE system measuring the soil properties(SP),cultivated land productivity(CLP),ecological environment(EE)and social economy(SE).The total of 19 factors were selected to calculate the integrated fertility index(IFI)and divided into grades.Simultaneously,we used the coupling coordination degree model to comprehensively analyze the spatial pattern of the cultivated land quality(CLQ)in the BSRNC,and use the structural equation model(SEM)to analyze the driving mechanism.The results show the following:1)The CLQ of 262 counties in the BSRNC is in a state of coupling and coordination,and the coupling and coordination degree presents a spatial distribution pattern of‘high in the southwest and northeast,low in the northwest and southeast’.The coordinated development degree of 271 counties is between 0.4 and 0.6,which is in a transitional state between coordination and disorder.2)The CLQ in the BSRNC is generally good,with an average grade of 3.High-quality cultivated land accounts for 58.45%of all counties,middle-and upper-quality cultivated land accounts for 27.05%,and poor-quality cultivated land accounts for 14.49%.3)The SEM analysis shows that the SP,CLP,EE,and SE all influence the CLQ.Among them,the SP has the largest driving force on the CLQ,while the SE has the smallest driving force on it.The results confirm that the main factors affecting the evaluation results are crop productivity level,normalized difference vegetation index,ratio vegetation index,difference vegetation index,and organic carbon content.When implementing protection measures in counties with a low CLQ,considering a balanced coordination of multiple systems and reasonably controlling the quality degradation are important.This study provides the current situation and driving factors of the CLQ in the BSRNC and will play an important role in black soil governance and utilization.展开更多
The abandonment of cultivated land in southern China was gradually obvious.This research aims to provide a reference for solving the abandonment of cultivated land in hilly regions and promote rural development in Chi...The abandonment of cultivated land in southern China was gradually obvious.This research aims to provide a reference for solving the abandonment of cultivated land in hilly regions and promote rural development in China.We examined Longnan county located in the hilly regions of southern China as an example,where abandoned cultivated land is very common.We analyzed its land use data with a field survey to identify the abandoned cultivated land and geospatial characteristics.From the two aspects of social and natural factors,we analyzed the factors driving cultivated land abandonment with the help of Geodetector.The results showed that in 2019,the total area of the abandoned cultivated land in Longnan county was 4,962.35 hm^(2),covering 39.51% of this region.Among the topographic factors,the abandonment rate is positively correlated with elevation and slope gradient,but not with slope direction.Among the land parcel conditions,the abandonment rate is positively correlated with the access to road network and cultivation distance from settlement.At the county level,the abandonment of cultivated land in study area was affected by multiple factors,among which,the direct factor was the reduction in the labor force,such as the decrease of farming laborers and the increase of female population,which made farming unsustainable.Changes in production factors also promoted transformations in farmers’motivation to engage in production,such as the decrease of grain crops and the increase of cash crops,which was the indirect factor affecting cultivated land abandonment.The development of the rural nonagricultural industry affected farmers’enthusiasm,such as the decrease of farming households,which was the fundamental factor leading to cultivated land abandonment in this area.展开更多
Cultivated land pressure represents a direct reflection of grain security. Existing relevant studies rarely approached the spatiotemporal pattern of cultivated land pressure or the spatial heterogeneity of its influen...Cultivated land pressure represents a direct reflection of grain security. Existing relevant studies rarely approached the spatiotemporal pattern of cultivated land pressure or the spatial heterogeneity of its influencing factors from the level of economic zones.Taking the Huaihai Economic Zone(HEZ), China for case analysis, this study investigated the spatiotemporal pattern of cultivated land pressure in diverse periods from 2000 to 2018 based on a modified cultivated land pressure index and spatial correlation models. On this basis, it explored the influencing factors of the spatial differentiation of cultivated land pressure in the late stage of the study using geographical detector as well as multi-scale geographically weighted regression model. The results indicated that: 1) in the study period, the global cultivated land pressure index of the study area decreased gradually, but cultivated land pressure increased locally in a significant way, especially in the central and southern Shandong Province;2) the spatial pattern of cultivated land pressure manifested global clustering features. Hot and secondary-hot spots presented a narrowing and clustering trend, whereas cold and secondary-cold spots manifested a spreading and clustering trend;3) average slope, the proportion of non-grain crops, population urbanization rate, and multiple cropping index have significant effects on the spatial differentiation of cultivated land pressure. The former three factors were positively correlated with cultivated land pressure, and the last factor was negatively correlated with cultivated land pressure;and 4) the amount of cultivated land has increased in the central and southern Shandong Province through land consolidation which, nonetheless, failed to improve the grain production. In regards to major grain producing areas similar to the HEZ in China, the authors suggest that great importance should be given to the balance of the quality and quantity of cultivated land, the optimization of agricultural production factors and the rational control of non-grain crops, thus providing a powerful guarantee for grain security in China.展开更多
Settlements and cultivated land are important production and living spaces in promoting rural revitalization.However,few studies have explored the relationship between rural settlements and cultivated land from spatio...Settlements and cultivated land are important production and living spaces in promoting rural revitalization.However,few studies have explored the relationship between rural settlements and cultivated land from spatiotemporal interaction perspective.This paper analyzed the spatiotemporal conversion and the interactive mechanism between rural settlements and cultivated land in a karst mountainous area(Qixingguan District of Guizhou Province)with fragile ecological environment in China during 2009–2018.The results showed that the expansion of rural settlements and the loss of cultivated land coexisted in Qixingguan District.Only 2.68%of the new cultivated land was reclaimed from rural settlements,whereas 85.45%of the new rural settlements occupied cultivated land.Six spatial expansion modes of rural settlements when occupying cultivated land were identified.Among these six modes,the area of the edge-expansion&along traffic roads(EA)mode accounted for 52.75%.The occupation by rural settlements made the cultivated land landscape more fragmented.The area ratio index of cultivated land to rural settlements(ARICR)of Qixingguan District averaged 18.75in 2009 and 17.21 in 2018,respectively.The ARICR reduced in all township administrative regions.Cultivated land with suitable slope condition for farming or without rocky desertification was more likely to be occupied by rural settlements.The probability of cultivated land occupied by rural settlements increased with the decrease of the distance to traffic roads,towns,and old rural settlements.The better the economic and social development of the township administrative regions,the more the ARICR decreased,while the richer the agricultural resources and the better the rural development of the township administrative regions,the less the ARICR decreased.The optimal reconstruction path of rural settlements,the comprehensive conservation path of cultivated land and the urban-rural integration development path in karst mountainous area were proposed.The findings would contribute to our understanding of the spatiotemporal interaction between rural settlements and cultivated land,and would provide a theoretical basis for promoting the coordinated development of rural man-land relationship and rural revitalization in karst areas.展开更多
Guangzhou,a significant hub city in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,has seen fast social and economic growth as well as steady progress in the degree of urbanization.This research,taking Guangzhou city ...Guangzhou,a significant hub city in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,has seen fast social and economic growth as well as steady progress in the degree of urbanization.This research,taking Guangzhou city as an example,aims to provide an understanding of how land resources,urbanization,and spatial planning are coordinated in the study area.It also aims to explore how the coordination degree of land resources,urbanization,and spatial planning changes over time.It seeks to provide effective suggestions for land resource protection,national spatial planning,and urban transformation development to promote the coordinated development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area into a world-class Bay Area.展开更多
It is of great significance to study the influence of spatial pattern change of cultivated land on eco-system service,including the sustainable utilization and ecological protection in black soil region in Northeast C...It is of great significance to study the influence of spatial pattern change of cultivated land on eco-system service,including the sustainable utilization and ecological protection in black soil region in Northeast China.Taking Lishu County of Jilin Province as the study area,we quantitatively evaluated soil conservation,habitat quality,carbon storage and grain production service,and analyzed the change of cultivated land and ecosystem service pattern in Lishu County from 1990 to 2020 by using Pearson correlation analysis on the correlation between cultivated land change and ecosystem service.The results show that:(1)The cultivated land area of Lishu County was reduced by 19.67 km2,the characteristics of cultivated land change are signifi-cant;(2)the overall change rate of carbon storage,habitat quality,soil conservation and grain production ser-vice in the study area was 10.82%,-0.09%,4.07%and 1.80%,respectively.They all had significant spatial differentiation features;(3)the change of habitat quality,grain production service showed a significant pos-itive correlation with the change of cultivated land area.The change in soil conservation and carbon storage were negatively related to cultivated land area.In order to promote the rational development and utilization of cultivated land in the research area,it is suggested to scientifically carry out the comprehensive utilization of cultivated land reserve resources such as saline-alkali land,strengthen the management and protection of newly added cultivated land at the same time.The results can provide scientific reference for formulating comprehensive land use planning under ecological security conditions.展开更多
The paper evaluates the changes in the ecological environment of cultivated land in the major crop-producing areas major crop-producing areas in the past 20 years by constructing an ecological pollution index;and quan...The paper evaluates the changes in the ecological environment of cultivated land in the major crop-producing areas major crop-producing areas in the past 20 years by constructing an ecological pollution index;and quantitatively analyzes the effects of the existing policies and their main influencing factors by applying the PSM-DID method based on the frequency of policy enactment.The results are as follows:first,the existing ecological compensation policies for cultivated land are effective but not significant in improving the ecological environment in the major crop-producing areas.The economic development level and grain cultivation area of the major crop-producing areas are significantly and positively correlated with the improvement of the arable land ecological environment,while the level of agricultural infrastructure construction is significantly and negatively correlated with the improvement of the arable land ecological environment.Second,the reason for the ineffectiveness of the current arable ecological land compensation policy in protecting the arable land ecological environment in the main grain-producing regions is that the existing arable ecological land compensation policy in China has its own institutional defects and needs to be further improved.At the same time,the level of environmental pollution of cultivated land in the main grain-producing regions is positively correlated with the level of income from cultivated land and cultivated area.展开更多
Generation of electricity using solar PV is picking up in India in a big way in recent years. It needs a clear direction such that it can optimally be utilized and the benefits, without being concentrated in a few loc...Generation of electricity using solar PV is picking up in India in a big way in recent years. It needs a clear direction such that it can optimally be utilized and the benefits, without being concentrated in a few locations, can reach the majority of poor population as well. Indian farmers, for the last few decades are affected in terms of availability of electrical power. The present study suggests the use of fertile and cultivated land with about 5 m elevated structure with solar panels. It creates shade on the crops. In the present study, the shade effect on the crops below the structure has been examined systematically through modeling studies. Different solar panel design configurations are suggested such that the crops or plants below, on the ground surface, can also be grown without any reduction in their yield. The effect of the elevated structure on the neighboring lands is also examined. It is shown that the present concept can easily be implemented in India, perhaps in the world, at all the locations such that power can be generated using farmer’s own land for his own benefit, perhaps with some profit to him. The present concept, if implemented, also reduces the huge cost involved in establishing the network of transmission and distribution lines.展开更多
The cultivated area is an important component of land resources that has a direct impact on food security. Egyptian cultivated area was estimated to be 3.86 million hectares in 2020. Recently, there has been a decline...The cultivated area is an important component of land resources that has a direct impact on food security. Egyptian cultivated area was estimated to be 3.86 million hectares in 2020. Recently, there has been a decline in cultivated areas, which could be attributed to a number of factors, including climatic changes and urban sprawl, endangering Egyptian sustainable development. So, the aim of the current study was to forecast the values of cultivated areas in Egypt for the next five years using the ARIMA model based on data from 1990 to 2020. The model predicted a decrease in cultivated area in coming years of about 3.06, 3.19, 3.084, 3.082 and 3.21 million hectares, respectively, according to the results. This forecasting will aid the country’s policy development for future land using planning and agricultural production.展开更多
Affected by topographical conditions,the distribution of cultivated land in karst areas is relatively fragmented.More effective cultivated land protection measures can be taken in a targeted manner by grasping the spa...Affected by topographical conditions,the distribution of cultivated land in karst areas is relatively fragmented.More effective cultivated land protection measures can be taken in a targeted manner by grasping the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of regional cultivated land.In this study,with the cultivated land of four county-level administrative regions(Debao County,Jingxi City,Daxin County,and Tiancheng County)in typical karst landform areas in southwestern Guangxi as the research object,combining with the spatial analysis function of the GIS software platform,the spatial distribution characteristics and temporal and spatial changes of cultivated land in the study area were investigated from 2009 to 2020 using the quantitative analysis method of landscape pattern indices,revealing the main problems of cultivated land utilization,and the multi-dimensional management ideas of cultivated land protection in karst areas under the background of rural revitalization strategy were proposed.展开更多
Using gradually regression analysis to establish the driving force model of utilized change of cultivated land in Gonghe County, and using path analysis, correlation analysis, partial correlation analysis and system d...Using gradually regression analysis to establish the driving force model of utilized change of cultivated land in Gonghe County, and using path analysis, correlation analysis, partial correlation analysis and system dynamics method to inspect the effect of driving changing on cultivated land change under different change situations. Driving factors, action mechanism and process of utilized change of cultivated land were analyzed from the county territory scale level. At last, some corresponding policies and measures were put forward.展开更多
Using the multi-temporal Landsat data and survey data of national resources, the authors studied the dynamics of cultivated land and landcover changes of typical ecological regions in China. The results of investigati...Using the multi-temporal Landsat data and survey data of national resources, the authors studied the dynamics of cultivated land and landcover changes of typical ecological regions in China. The results of investigation showed that the whole distribution of the cultivated land shifted to Northeast and Northwest China, and as a result, the ecological quality of cultivated land dropped down. The seacoast and cultivated land in the area of Yellow River Mouth expanded by an increasing rate of 0.73 kma-1, with a depositing rate of 2.1 kma-1. The desertification area of the dynamic of Horqin Sandy Land increased from 60.02% of the total land area in1970s to 64.82% in1980s but decreased to 54.90% in early 1990s. As to the change of North Tibet lakes, the water area of the Namu Lake decreased by 38.58 km2 from year 1970 to 1988, with a decreasing rate of 2.14 km2a-1.展开更多
Using path analysis, correlation analysis, partial correlation analysis and system dynamics method to study the driving force of cultivated land in Qinghai Lake Area, and using gradually regression analysis to establi...Using path analysis, correlation analysis, partial correlation analysis and system dynamics method to study the driving force of cultivated land in Qinghai Lake Area, and using gradually regression analysis to establish the driving force model of utilized change of cultivated land. Driving factors, action mechanism and process of utilized change of cultivated land were analyzed, and the differences during all factors were compared. The study provides some decision basis for sustainable utilization and management of land resources in Qinghai Lake Area.展开更多
[Objective] This paper aimed at exploring the countermeasures for cultivated land protection and food security assurance and providing references for the formulation of policies related to cultivated land and grain pr...[Objective] This paper aimed at exploring the countermeasures for cultivated land protection and food security assurance and providing references for the formulation of policies related to cultivated land and grain production of the whole province.[Methods] Data of population,cultivated land,grain and others in Hunan Province during 1989 to 2008 were collected by county(district).The changes of cultivated land and grain production of the whole province were analyzed using Geographical Information System(GIS).[Results] The population was increasing continuously,the total area of cultivated land was reducing as a whole in spite of increasing in one or two year in one or two county,the total grain production and per capita grain yield was fluctuated within a certain range in recent 20 years of the whole province.The reducing of cultivated land was mainly due to the industrialization and urbanization development.The unbalanced quantity and quality of cultivated land,various natural disasters,readjustment of industry structure and inner readjustment in the agriculture,variety improvement and improvement of cultivated technology mainly affected of the grain production.[Conclusions] The protection of the quantity and quality of cultivated land has to be strengthened to ensure food security.It is important to enhance the ability of resisting drought and flood disasters by improving the construction of agriculture establishment in order to insure the productivity of cultivated land,to increase farmer’s enthusiasm for growing grain with favourable food policy,to improve the per unit area yield of grain by variety improvement and to increase grain sown area by enlarging the double-cropping rice sown area.展开更多
Based upon ArCGIS,the vertical spatial transfer law of cultivated land in Yunnan was studied through referring to three periods of remote sensing data of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change(LUCC) in Yunnan in 1986,1995 a...Based upon ArCGIS,the vertical spatial transfer law of cultivated land in Yunnan was studied through referring to three periods of remote sensing data of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change(LUCC) in Yunnan in 1986,1995 and 2000,Digital Elevation Model(DEM) of Yunnan Province and LUCC data in Yunnan from 2000 to 2008.The main factors that promote vertical spatial transfer law of cultivated land were analyzed by using SPSS,and the influence of policies and government acts upon the change of cultivated land was clarified.The findings indicated that for Yunnan cultivated land there is a trend that in the vertical direction steep slope areas and gentle slope areas divert into mid-slope areas.The primary factor influencing the vertical spatial transfer of cultivated land was policies and government acts.Also,the gradient of ground,total population and number of agriculture employed persons were also main factors in influencing the change of cultivated land,whose influence was obviously below policies and government acts.展开更多
[Objective] Water shortage is a key natural factor limiting arid economic development and ecological security.However,the large-scale land reclamation against natural laws has been speeding up water consumption,and th...[Objective] Water shortage is a key natural factor limiting arid economic development and ecological security.However,the large-scale land reclamation against natural laws has been speeding up water consumption,and the ecological water use which is the primary condition for maintaining ecological security was squeezed.Moreover,the fragile oasis ecosystem would be destroyed dramatically.In order to maintain ecological security,it is urgent to evaluate the threshold value of cultivated land.[Method] The method of water-soil balance was used to evaluate the threshold value of cultivated-land on the premise of allocating downstream ecological water demand.[Result] Under the frequency of 75%(P =75 for short) in Hotan River,the threshold value of cultivated-land in Hotan Oasis would be 13.83×10^4,16.78×10^4and 16.50×10^4hm^2in 2010,2020 and 2030 respectively.Under the frequency of 50%(P=50 for short),the threshold value of cultivated land in Hotan Oasis would be 14.95 ×10^4,18.08 ×10^4and 17.78 ×10^4hm^2in 2010,2020 and 2030 respectively.If effective measures are not taken to control cultivated-land expansion,the cultivated land area will be 2.78×10^4and 5.07×10^4hm^2more than the threshold values of cultivated land at P =75 in 2020 and 2030 respectively.Even if the efficient water-saving technique are adopted,the water requirement of crop use will increase from 19.77×108to 20.82×108and 21.95×108m3during 2010-2030,and then the ecological water use cannot be guaranteed.[Conclusion] The cultivated-land expansion would threaten the ecological security in Hotan River and Tarim River.Therefore,some strict measures should be taken to protect desert-oasis ecotone,an important constituent of oasis ecosystem which has vital role in maintaining the stability of oasis,and to prohibit cultivated-land expansion.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(72373117)the Chinese Universities Scientific Fund(Z1010422003)+1 种基金the Major Project of the Key Research Base of Humanities and Social Sciences of the Ministry of Education(22JJD790052)the Qinchuangyuan Project of Shaanxi Province(QCYRCXM-2022-145).
文摘Improving cultivated land use eco-efficiency(CLUE)can effectively promote agricultural sustainability,particularly in developing countries where CLUE is generally low.This study used provincial-level data from China to evaluate the spatiotemporal evolution of CLUE from 2000 to 2020 and identified the influencing factors of CLUE by using a panel Tobit model.In addition,given the undesirable outputs of agricultural production,we incorporated carbon emissions and nonpoint source pollution into the global benchmark-undesirable output-super efficiency-slacks-based measure(GB-US-SBM)model,which combines global benchmark technology,undesirable output,super efficiency,and slacks-based measure.The results indicated that there was an upward trend in CLUE in China from 2000 to 2020,with an increase rate of 2.62%.The temporal evolution of CLUE in China could be classified into three distinct stages:a period of fluctuating decrease(2000-2007),a phase of gradual increase(2008-2014),and a period of rapid growth(2015-2020).The major grain-producing areas(MPAs)had a lower CLUE than their counterparts,namely,non-major grain-production areas(non-MPAs).The spatial agglomeration effect followed a northeast-southwest strip distribution;and the movement path of barycentre revealed a"P"shape,with Luoyang City,Henan Province,as the centre.In terms of influencing factors of CLUE,investment in science and technology played the most vital role in improving CLUE,while irrigation index had the most negative effect.It should be noted that these two influencing factors had different impacts on MPAs and non-MPAs.Therefore,relevant departments should formulate policies to enhance the level of science and technology,improve irrigation condition,and promote sustainable utilization of cultivated land.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42071226,41671176)Taishan Scholars Youth Expert Support Plan of Shandong Province(No.TSQN202306183)。
文摘Sustainable intensification of cultivated land use(SICLU) and large-scale operations(LSO) are widely acknowledged strategies for enhancing agricultural performance.However,the existing literature has faced challenges in precisely defining SICLU and constructing comprehensive indicators,which has hindered the exploration of factors influencing LSO within the SICLU framework.To address this gap,we integrated self-efficacy theory into the design of an index framework for evaluating SICLU.We subsequently employed econometric models to analyze the significant factors that impact LSO.Our findings reveal that SICLU can be divided into four key dimensions:intensive management,efficient output,resource conservation,and ecological environment optimization.Furthermore,it is crucial to incorporate belief-based cognitive factors into the index system,as farmers’ understanding of fertilizer and pesticide application significantly influences their willingness to engage in LSO.Moreover,we identify grain market turnover as the most influential factor in promoting LSO,with single-factor contribution rates reaching 70.9% for cultivated land transfer willingness and 62.5% for the total planting areas.Interestingly,unlike irrigation and agricultural machinery inputs,increased labor inputs correspond to larger planting areas for farmers.This trend may be attributed to reduced labor availability because of rural labor migration,whereas the reduction in irrigation and agricultural input is contingent on innovations in production practices and the transfer of cultivated land management rights.Importantly,SICLU dynamically influences LSO,with each index related to SICLU having an optimal range that fosters LSO.These insights offer valuable guidance for policymakers,emphasizing farmers as their central focus,with the adjustment of input and output factors as a means to achieve LSO as the ultimate goal.In conclusion,we propose research avenues for further enriching the SICLU framework to ensure that it aligns with the specific characteristics of regional agricultural development.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(2023SHZR0540)the National Science and Technology Support Program of China(NMTDY2021-78).
文摘Protection and optimization of cultivated land resources are of great significance to national food security.Cultivated land conversion in northern China has increased in recent years due to the industrialization and urbanization of society.However,the assessment of cultivated land conversion in this area is insufficient,posing a potential risk to cultivated land resources.This study evaluated the evolution and spatiotemporal patterns of cultivated land conversion in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,China,and the driving factors to improve rational utilization and to protect cultivated land resources.The spatiotemporal patterns of cultivated land conversion in Inner Mongolia were analyzed using the cultivated land conversion index,kernel density analysis,a standard deviation ellipse model,and a geographic detector.Results showed that from 2000 to 2020,the trends in cultivated land conversion area and rate in Inner Mongolia exhibited fluctuating growth,with the total area of cultivated land conversion reaching 7307.59 km^(2) at a rate of 6.69%.Spatial distribution of cultivated land conversion was primarily concentrated in the Hetao Plain,Nengjiang Plain,Liaohe Plain,and the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos urban agglomeration.Moreover,the standard deviational ellipse of cultivated land conversion in Inner Mongolia exhibited a directional southwest-northeast-southwest-northeast distribution,with the northeast-southwest direction identified as the main driving force of spatial change in cultivated land conversion.Meanwhile,cultivated land conversion exhibited an increase-decrease-increase change process,indicating that spatial distribution of cultivated land conversion in Inner Mongolia became gradually apparent within the study period.The geographic detector results further revealed that the main driving factors of cultivated land conversion in Inner Mongolia were the share of secondary and tertiary industries and per-unit area yield of grain,with explanatory rates of 57.00%,55.00%,and 51.00%,respectively.Additionally,improved agricultural production efficiency and the coordinated development of population urbanization and industry resulted in cultivated land conversion.Collectively,the findings of this study indicated that,from 2000 to 2020,the cultivated land conversion in Inner Mongolia was significant and fluctuated in time,and had strong spatial heterogeneity.The primary drivers of these events included the effects of agriculture,population,and social economy.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42301296)Postdoctoral Research Foundation of China(No.2022M723130)Key Projects of Social Science Planning Fund of Liaoning Province,China(No.L23AGL001)。
文摘It is of great significance to systematically analyze the cultivated land system resilience(CLSR) for the black soil protection and national food security.The CLSR is impacted by planting structure adjustment and cultivated land quality decline,posing major hidden dangers to food security.It is urgent to evaluate the CLSR at multiple spatio-temporal scales.This study took Liaoning Province in the black soil region of Northeast China as an example.Based on the resilience theory,this study constructed the CLSR evaluation system from the input-feedback perspective at the provincial-scale and the city-scale,and used the rank-sum ratio comprehensive evaluation method(RSR) to analyze the key influencing factors of CLSR in Liaoning Province and its 14 cities from 2000 to 2019.The results showed that:1) the time series changes of CLSR at the provincial-scale and the city-scale in Liaoning Province were similar,both showing an increasing trend.2) The CLSR in Liaoning Province presented a spatial pattern of ‘high in the west and low in the east’ at the city-scale.3) There were seven and six main influencing factors of CLSR at the provincial-scale and the city-scale,respectively.In addition to the net income per capita of rural households,other influencing factors of CLSR were different at the provincial-scale and the city-scale.The feedback factors were dominant at the provincial-scale,and the input factors and feedback factors were dominant at the city-scale.The results could provide a reference for the utilization of black soil and draw on the experience of regional agricultural planning and adjustment.
基金Under the auspices of National Key R&D Program of China(No.2021YFD1500104-4)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42171407,42077242)+1 种基金Natural Science Foundation of Jilin Province(No.20210101098JC)Special Investigation on Basic Science and Technology Resources(No.2021FY100406)。
文摘Cultivated land is an important natural resource to ensure food,ecological and economic security.The cultivated land quality evaluation(CQE)is greatly significant for protecting and managing cultivated land.In this study,320 counties in the black soil region of Northeast China(BSRNC)represent the research units used to construct the CQE system measuring the soil properties(SP),cultivated land productivity(CLP),ecological environment(EE)and social economy(SE).The total of 19 factors were selected to calculate the integrated fertility index(IFI)and divided into grades.Simultaneously,we used the coupling coordination degree model to comprehensively analyze the spatial pattern of the cultivated land quality(CLQ)in the BSRNC,and use the structural equation model(SEM)to analyze the driving mechanism.The results show the following:1)The CLQ of 262 counties in the BSRNC is in a state of coupling and coordination,and the coupling and coordination degree presents a spatial distribution pattern of‘high in the southwest and northeast,low in the northwest and southeast’.The coordinated development degree of 271 counties is between 0.4 and 0.6,which is in a transitional state between coordination and disorder.2)The CLQ in the BSRNC is generally good,with an average grade of 3.High-quality cultivated land accounts for 58.45%of all counties,middle-and upper-quality cultivated land accounts for 27.05%,and poor-quality cultivated land accounts for 14.49%.3)The SEM analysis shows that the SP,CLP,EE,and SE all influence the CLQ.Among them,the SP has the largest driving force on the CLQ,while the SE has the smallest driving force on it.The results confirm that the main factors affecting the evaluation results are crop productivity level,normalized difference vegetation index,ratio vegetation index,difference vegetation index,and organic carbon content.When implementing protection measures in counties with a low CLQ,considering a balanced coordination of multiple systems and reasonably controlling the quality degradation are important.This study provides the current situation and driving factors of the CLQ in the BSRNC and will play an important role in black soil governance and utilization.
基金supported by the University Humanities and Social Sciences Project of Jiangxi Province(Grant No.JC20108 and GL20225)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42267068)。
文摘The abandonment of cultivated land in southern China was gradually obvious.This research aims to provide a reference for solving the abandonment of cultivated land in hilly regions and promote rural development in China.We examined Longnan county located in the hilly regions of southern China as an example,where abandoned cultivated land is very common.We analyzed its land use data with a field survey to identify the abandoned cultivated land and geospatial characteristics.From the two aspects of social and natural factors,we analyzed the factors driving cultivated land abandonment with the help of Geodetector.The results showed that in 2019,the total area of the abandoned cultivated land in Longnan county was 4,962.35 hm^(2),covering 39.51% of this region.Among the topographic factors,the abandonment rate is positively correlated with elevation and slope gradient,but not with slope direction.Among the land parcel conditions,the abandonment rate is positively correlated with the access to road network and cultivation distance from settlement.At the county level,the abandonment of cultivated land in study area was affected by multiple factors,among which,the direct factor was the reduction in the labor force,such as the decrease of farming laborers and the increase of female population,which made farming unsustainable.Changes in production factors also promoted transformations in farmers’motivation to engage in production,such as the decrease of grain crops and the increase of cash crops,which was the indirect factor affecting cultivated land abandonment.The development of the rural nonagricultural industry affected farmers’enthusiasm,such as the decrease of farming households,which was the fundamental factor leading to cultivated land abandonment in this area.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.42071229,41671174)Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (No.164320H116)。
文摘Cultivated land pressure represents a direct reflection of grain security. Existing relevant studies rarely approached the spatiotemporal pattern of cultivated land pressure or the spatial heterogeneity of its influencing factors from the level of economic zones.Taking the Huaihai Economic Zone(HEZ), China for case analysis, this study investigated the spatiotemporal pattern of cultivated land pressure in diverse periods from 2000 to 2018 based on a modified cultivated land pressure index and spatial correlation models. On this basis, it explored the influencing factors of the spatial differentiation of cultivated land pressure in the late stage of the study using geographical detector as well as multi-scale geographically weighted regression model. The results indicated that: 1) in the study period, the global cultivated land pressure index of the study area decreased gradually, but cultivated land pressure increased locally in a significant way, especially in the central and southern Shandong Province;2) the spatial pattern of cultivated land pressure manifested global clustering features. Hot and secondary-hot spots presented a narrowing and clustering trend, whereas cold and secondary-cold spots manifested a spreading and clustering trend;3) average slope, the proportion of non-grain crops, population urbanization rate, and multiple cropping index have significant effects on the spatial differentiation of cultivated land pressure. The former three factors were positively correlated with cultivated land pressure, and the last factor was negatively correlated with cultivated land pressure;and 4) the amount of cultivated land has increased in the central and southern Shandong Province through land consolidation which, nonetheless, failed to improve the grain production. In regards to major grain producing areas similar to the HEZ in China, the authors suggest that great importance should be given to the balance of the quality and quantity of cultivated land, the optimization of agricultural production factors and the rational control of non-grain crops, thus providing a powerful guarantee for grain security in China.
基金Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41871182)the Open Fund of Key Laboratory of National Geographic Census and Monitoring,Ministry of Natural Resources(No.2022NGCM10)。
文摘Settlements and cultivated land are important production and living spaces in promoting rural revitalization.However,few studies have explored the relationship between rural settlements and cultivated land from spatiotemporal interaction perspective.This paper analyzed the spatiotemporal conversion and the interactive mechanism between rural settlements and cultivated land in a karst mountainous area(Qixingguan District of Guizhou Province)with fragile ecological environment in China during 2009–2018.The results showed that the expansion of rural settlements and the loss of cultivated land coexisted in Qixingguan District.Only 2.68%of the new cultivated land was reclaimed from rural settlements,whereas 85.45%of the new rural settlements occupied cultivated land.Six spatial expansion modes of rural settlements when occupying cultivated land were identified.Among these six modes,the area of the edge-expansion&along traffic roads(EA)mode accounted for 52.75%.The occupation by rural settlements made the cultivated land landscape more fragmented.The area ratio index of cultivated land to rural settlements(ARICR)of Qixingguan District averaged 18.75in 2009 and 17.21 in 2018,respectively.The ARICR reduced in all township administrative regions.Cultivated land with suitable slope condition for farming or without rocky desertification was more likely to be occupied by rural settlements.The probability of cultivated land occupied by rural settlements increased with the decrease of the distance to traffic roads,towns,and old rural settlements.The better the economic and social development of the township administrative regions,the more the ARICR decreased,while the richer the agricultural resources and the better the rural development of the township administrative regions,the less the ARICR decreased.The optimal reconstruction path of rural settlements,the comprehensive conservation path of cultivated land and the urban-rural integration development path in karst mountainous area were proposed.The findings would contribute to our understanding of the spatiotemporal interaction between rural settlements and cultivated land,and would provide a theoretical basis for promoting the coordinated development of rural man-land relationship and rural revitalization in karst areas.
文摘Guangzhou,a significant hub city in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,has seen fast social and economic growth as well as steady progress in the degree of urbanization.This research,taking Guangzhou city as an example,aims to provide an understanding of how land resources,urbanization,and spatial planning are coordinated in the study area.It also aims to explore how the coordination degree of land resources,urbanization,and spatial planning changes over time.It seeks to provide effective suggestions for land resource protection,national spatial planning,and urban transformation development to promote the coordinated development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area into a world-class Bay Area.
基金Supported by projects of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42071255)Jilin Province Philosophy and Social Science Think Tank Fund(No.2023JLSKZKZB066)Special Research of Northeast Revitaliza tion and Development of Jilin University(No.23dbzx10).
文摘It is of great significance to study the influence of spatial pattern change of cultivated land on eco-system service,including the sustainable utilization and ecological protection in black soil region in Northeast China.Taking Lishu County of Jilin Province as the study area,we quantitatively evaluated soil conservation,habitat quality,carbon storage and grain production service,and analyzed the change of cultivated land and ecosystem service pattern in Lishu County from 1990 to 2020 by using Pearson correlation analysis on the correlation between cultivated land change and ecosystem service.The results show that:(1)The cultivated land area of Lishu County was reduced by 19.67 km2,the characteristics of cultivated land change are signifi-cant;(2)the overall change rate of carbon storage,habitat quality,soil conservation and grain production ser-vice in the study area was 10.82%,-0.09%,4.07%and 1.80%,respectively.They all had significant spatial differentiation features;(3)the change of habitat quality,grain production service showed a significant pos-itive correlation with the change of cultivated land area.The change in soil conservation and carbon storage were negatively related to cultivated land area.In order to promote the rational development and utilization of cultivated land in the research area,it is suggested to scientifically carry out the comprehensive utilization of cultivated land reserve resources such as saline-alkali land,strengthen the management and protection of newly added cultivated land at the same time.The results can provide scientific reference for formulating comprehensive land use planning under ecological security conditions.
文摘The paper evaluates the changes in the ecological environment of cultivated land in the major crop-producing areas major crop-producing areas in the past 20 years by constructing an ecological pollution index;and quantitatively analyzes the effects of the existing policies and their main influencing factors by applying the PSM-DID method based on the frequency of policy enactment.The results are as follows:first,the existing ecological compensation policies for cultivated land are effective but not significant in improving the ecological environment in the major crop-producing areas.The economic development level and grain cultivation area of the major crop-producing areas are significantly and positively correlated with the improvement of the arable land ecological environment,while the level of agricultural infrastructure construction is significantly and negatively correlated with the improvement of the arable land ecological environment.Second,the reason for the ineffectiveness of the current arable ecological land compensation policy in protecting the arable land ecological environment in the main grain-producing regions is that the existing arable ecological land compensation policy in China has its own institutional defects and needs to be further improved.At the same time,the level of environmental pollution of cultivated land in the main grain-producing regions is positively correlated with the level of income from cultivated land and cultivated area.
文摘Generation of electricity using solar PV is picking up in India in a big way in recent years. It needs a clear direction such that it can optimally be utilized and the benefits, without being concentrated in a few locations, can reach the majority of poor population as well. Indian farmers, for the last few decades are affected in terms of availability of electrical power. The present study suggests the use of fertile and cultivated land with about 5 m elevated structure with solar panels. It creates shade on the crops. In the present study, the shade effect on the crops below the structure has been examined systematically through modeling studies. Different solar panel design configurations are suggested such that the crops or plants below, on the ground surface, can also be grown without any reduction in their yield. The effect of the elevated structure on the neighboring lands is also examined. It is shown that the present concept can easily be implemented in India, perhaps in the world, at all the locations such that power can be generated using farmer’s own land for his own benefit, perhaps with some profit to him. The present concept, if implemented, also reduces the huge cost involved in establishing the network of transmission and distribution lines.
文摘The cultivated area is an important component of land resources that has a direct impact on food security. Egyptian cultivated area was estimated to be 3.86 million hectares in 2020. Recently, there has been a decline in cultivated areas, which could be attributed to a number of factors, including climatic changes and urban sprawl, endangering Egyptian sustainable development. So, the aim of the current study was to forecast the values of cultivated areas in Egypt for the next five years using the ARIMA model based on data from 1990 to 2020. The model predicted a decrease in cultivated area in coming years of about 3.06, 3.19, 3.084, 3.082 and 3.21 million hectares, respectively, according to the results. This forecasting will aid the country’s policy development for future land using planning and agricultural production.
文摘Affected by topographical conditions,the distribution of cultivated land in karst areas is relatively fragmented.More effective cultivated land protection measures can be taken in a targeted manner by grasping the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of regional cultivated land.In this study,with the cultivated land of four county-level administrative regions(Debao County,Jingxi City,Daxin County,and Tiancheng County)in typical karst landform areas in southwestern Guangxi as the research object,combining with the spatial analysis function of the GIS software platform,the spatial distribution characteristics and temporal and spatial changes of cultivated land in the study area were investigated from 2009 to 2020 using the quantitative analysis method of landscape pattern indices,revealing the main problems of cultivated land utilization,and the multi-dimensional management ideas of cultivated land protection in karst areas under the background of rural revitalization strategy were proposed.
基金Supported by the National Social Science Fund(06XMZ014)~~
文摘Using gradually regression analysis to establish the driving force model of utilized change of cultivated land in Gonghe County, and using path analysis, correlation analysis, partial correlation analysis and system dynamics method to inspect the effect of driving changing on cultivated land change under different change situations. Driving factors, action mechanism and process of utilized change of cultivated land were analyzed from the county territory scale level. At last, some corresponding policies and measures were put forward.
基金National Natural Sci-ence Foundation of China (Grant No. 39900084) and KZCX1-10-07.
文摘Using the multi-temporal Landsat data and survey data of national resources, the authors studied the dynamics of cultivated land and landcover changes of typical ecological regions in China. The results of investigation showed that the whole distribution of the cultivated land shifted to Northeast and Northwest China, and as a result, the ecological quality of cultivated land dropped down. The seacoast and cultivated land in the area of Yellow River Mouth expanded by an increasing rate of 0.73 kma-1, with a depositing rate of 2.1 kma-1. The desertification area of the dynamic of Horqin Sandy Land increased from 60.02% of the total land area in1970s to 64.82% in1980s but decreased to 54.90% in early 1990s. As to the change of North Tibet lakes, the water area of the Namu Lake decreased by 38.58 km2 from year 1970 to 1988, with a decreasing rate of 2.14 km2a-1.
基金Supported by The Regional Sustainable Development of the Qing-TibetPlateau(2004)~~
文摘Using path analysis, correlation analysis, partial correlation analysis and system dynamics method to study the driving force of cultivated land in Qinghai Lake Area, and using gradually regression analysis to establish the driving force model of utilized change of cultivated land. Driving factors, action mechanism and process of utilized change of cultivated land were analyzed, and the differences during all factors were compared. The study provides some decision basis for sustainable utilization and management of land resources in Qinghai Lake Area.
基金Supported by National Key Basic Research Program of China(2007CB407203)Project of Teaching Research and Transformation in Hunan Agricultural University(B2010111)~~
文摘[Objective] This paper aimed at exploring the countermeasures for cultivated land protection and food security assurance and providing references for the formulation of policies related to cultivated land and grain production of the whole province.[Methods] Data of population,cultivated land,grain and others in Hunan Province during 1989 to 2008 were collected by county(district).The changes of cultivated land and grain production of the whole province were analyzed using Geographical Information System(GIS).[Results] The population was increasing continuously,the total area of cultivated land was reducing as a whole in spite of increasing in one or two year in one or two county,the total grain production and per capita grain yield was fluctuated within a certain range in recent 20 years of the whole province.The reducing of cultivated land was mainly due to the industrialization and urbanization development.The unbalanced quantity and quality of cultivated land,various natural disasters,readjustment of industry structure and inner readjustment in the agriculture,variety improvement and improvement of cultivated technology mainly affected of the grain production.[Conclusions] The protection of the quantity and quality of cultivated land has to be strengthened to ensure food security.It is important to enhance the ability of resisting drought and flood disasters by improving the construction of agriculture establishment in order to insure the productivity of cultivated land,to increase farmer’s enthusiasm for growing grain with favourable food policy,to improve the per unit area yield of grain by variety improvement and to increase grain sown area by enlarging the double-cropping rice sown area.
基金Supported by National Natural and Scientific Foundation Project(40761009)Yunnan Province Applied Fundamental Research Project(2007D081M)Assisted by the Project of Yunnan Province Department of Education(06Y045A)~~
文摘Based upon ArCGIS,the vertical spatial transfer law of cultivated land in Yunnan was studied through referring to three periods of remote sensing data of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change(LUCC) in Yunnan in 1986,1995 and 2000,Digital Elevation Model(DEM) of Yunnan Province and LUCC data in Yunnan from 2000 to 2008.The main factors that promote vertical spatial transfer law of cultivated land were analyzed by using SPSS,and the influence of policies and government acts upon the change of cultivated land was clarified.The findings indicated that for Yunnan cultivated land there is a trend that in the vertical direction steep slope areas and gentle slope areas divert into mid-slope areas.The primary factor influencing the vertical spatial transfer of cultivated land was policies and government acts.Also,the gradient of ground,total population and number of agriculture employed persons were also main factors in influencing the change of cultivated land,whose influence was obviously below policies and government acts.
文摘[Objective] Water shortage is a key natural factor limiting arid economic development and ecological security.However,the large-scale land reclamation against natural laws has been speeding up water consumption,and the ecological water use which is the primary condition for maintaining ecological security was squeezed.Moreover,the fragile oasis ecosystem would be destroyed dramatically.In order to maintain ecological security,it is urgent to evaluate the threshold value of cultivated land.[Method] The method of water-soil balance was used to evaluate the threshold value of cultivated-land on the premise of allocating downstream ecological water demand.[Result] Under the frequency of 75%(P =75 for short) in Hotan River,the threshold value of cultivated-land in Hotan Oasis would be 13.83×10^4,16.78×10^4and 16.50×10^4hm^2in 2010,2020 and 2030 respectively.Under the frequency of 50%(P=50 for short),the threshold value of cultivated land in Hotan Oasis would be 14.95 ×10^4,18.08 ×10^4and 17.78 ×10^4hm^2in 2010,2020 and 2030 respectively.If effective measures are not taken to control cultivated-land expansion,the cultivated land area will be 2.78×10^4and 5.07×10^4hm^2more than the threshold values of cultivated land at P =75 in 2020 and 2030 respectively.Even if the efficient water-saving technique are adopted,the water requirement of crop use will increase from 19.77×108to 20.82×108and 21.95×108m3during 2010-2030,and then the ecological water use cannot be guaranteed.[Conclusion] The cultivated-land expansion would threaten the ecological security in Hotan River and Tarim River.Therefore,some strict measures should be taken to protect desert-oasis ecotone,an important constituent of oasis ecosystem which has vital role in maintaining the stability of oasis,and to prohibit cultivated-land expansion.