Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models:An Empirical Validation of ISW-Ridge Relationships

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p 〈0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to cheek the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height （X1 ） and potential energy （X2 ） significantly impact （p 〈 0. 0001 ） the amplitude-based refleeted rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all 〉 0.05 （0.2839, 0.3438, respectively）. That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height （ X1 ） and potential energy （X2） can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model. Investigation of 6 predictive powers （ R2, Max-rescaled R^2, Sorners＇ D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively） indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.

A new mathematical model for horizontal wells with variable density perforation completion in bottom water reservoirs

Horizontal wells are commonly used in bottom water reservoirs,which can increase contact area between wellbores and reservoirs.There are many completion methods used to control cresting,among which variable density perforation is an effective one.It is difficult to evaluate well productivity and to analyze inflow profiles of horizontal wells with quantities of unevenly distributed perforations,which are characterized by different parameters.In this paper,fluid flow in each wellbore perforation,as well as the reservoir,was analyzed.A comprehensive model,coupling the fluid flow in the reservoir and the wellbore pressure drawdown,was developed based on potential functions and solved using the numerical discrete method.Then,a bottom water cresting model was established on the basis of the piston-like displacement principle.Finally,bottom water cresting parameters and factors influencing inflow profile were analyzed.A more systematic optimization method was proposed by introducing the concept of cumulative free-water production,which could maintain a balance（or then a balance is achieved）between stabilizing oil production and controlling bottom water cresting.Results show that the inflow profile is affected by the perforation distribution.Wells with denser perforation density at the toe end and thinner density at the heel end may obtain low production,but the water breakthrough time is delayed.Taking cumulative free-water production as a parameter to evaluate perforation strategies is advisable in bottom water reservoirs.

Nonlinear Modeling for a Two-Stage Degradation System Based on Nonhomogeneous Poisson Process

The degradation process modeling is one of research hotspots of prognostic and health management(PHM),which can be used to estimate system reliability and remaining useful life(RUL).In order to study system degradation process,cumulative damage model is used for degradation modeling.Assuming that damage increment is Gamma distribution,shock counting subjects to a homogeneous Poisson process(HPP)when degradation process is linear,and shock counting is a non-homogeneous Poisson process(NHPP)when degradation process is nonlinear.A two-stage degradation system is considered in this paper,for which the degradation process is linear in the first stage and the degradation process is nonlinear in the second stage.A nonlinear modeling method for considered system is put forward,and reliability model and remaining useful life model are established.A case study is given to validate the veracities of established models.

Ecological Land Suitability for Arid Region at River Basin Scale:Framework and Application Based on Minmum Cumulative Resistance(MCR) Model

As an important and typical arid inland region in China,Shiyang River Basin plays an important role in maintaining the sustainable development of eco-environment,whose ecological land suitability restricts the development of the local human activities.Therefore,Shiyang River Basin was selected as the case study,the minimum cumulative resistance(MCR)model and GIS technique were integrated to create land suitability evaluation map.We calculated the MCR value of ecological source and living source,and divided the whole basin into five partitions according to the difference between ecological source and living source,and analyzed the patterns and characteristics of the ecological land suitability evaluation(ELSE)regions,respectively.The results showed that:1)The suitable ecological land includes prohibited development region and restricted development region,which accounts for 15.45%and 23.35%of the total land area of the Shiyang River Basin,respectively.These two regions mainly distributed high altitude region in the southern Qilian Mountain and low altitude region where had high density of rivers.2)The protection of ecological land requires not only conserving existing ecological land but also focusing on ecological buffer belts around ecological sources and improving ecological land service ability.3)Ecological networks should be constructed through artificial planting trees around the boundary of oasis and ecological restoration region.Buffer greenbelts should also be established between optimized development region and ecological restoration region.

NEW FATIGUE CUMULATIVE DAMAGE PROBABILISTIC MODEL OFTHE MECHANICAL PARTS

Fatigue failure of mechanical part is treated as a random event.the fatigue reliablility problem can be solved through researching the random event.A new definition δb that measures fatigue damage quantity in a cycle under cyclic stress is put forward. According to δ.the paper presents two new definitions K and D is fatigue damage strength.D is overall fatigue damage quantity.Using K and D to describe the fatigue failure of the parts,the paper puts forward a new fatigue cumulative damage probabilistic model of the mechanical parts.The model can be used to solve reliability fatigue problem.

Dual-objective pattern optimization method for land suitability zoning in mountain counties

As the basic administrative unit of China,counties have grown rapidly in recent years in the context of rapid urbanization,especially for counties located in mountainous areas.The drastic changes in land in mountainous areas can easily cause irreversible damage to the sensitive ecological environment.Through the dual-objective suitability zoning of ecological and construction balance,regional sustainable land use patterns can be realized.In this study,Hantai District in Southern Shaanxi province,China,was chosen as the research area aiming at creating a balance between ecological supply and the development of construction in spatial planning.A dual-objective process evaluation system for ecological protection and construction development was proposed with 15 resistance factors selected from three attributes:natural ecology,economic society,and policy.The minimum resistance surface discrimination methods for ecological land and construction development land were proposed based on vertical space superposition and horizontal minimum cumulative resistance models.Finally,the land in Hantai District was divided into four development grades from the optimal angle of dual goals,i.e.,the construction core zone being 134.56 km^(2),the suitable construction zone 115.77 km2,the ecological buffer zone 153.74 km^(2),and the ecological control zone 151.93 km^(2),using the method combining resistance difference and threshold division.In addition,the development direction of each town under jurisdiction was identified.This study compensates for the deficiency of traditional methods that evaluate land only from a single vertical or horizontal process.

Experimental Study on Performance of Plain Concrete Due to Triaxial Variable-Amplitude Tension-Compression Cyclic Loading

An experimental study on performance of plain concrete under triaxial constant-amplitude and variable amplitude tension- compression cyclic loadings was carded out. The low level of the cyclic stress is 0. 2f and the upper level ranges between 0. 20f and 0. 55f., while the constant lateral pressure is 0. 3 f . The specimen failure mode, the three-stage evolution rule of the longitudinal strains and the damage evolution law under cyclic loading were analyzed. Furthermore, Miner＇s rule is proved not to be applicable to the cyclic loading conditions, hereby, a nonlinear cumulative damage model was established. Based on the model the remaining fatigue life was evaluated. The comparison whh the experiment resuhs shaws that the model is of better precision and applicability.

Landscape Ecological Security Assessment of Low-Slope Hilly Region in Lu County,China

Low-slope hilly land( LSHL) refers to regions with relatively lower altitude,smaller topographic changes and gentler slopes. Exploitation and utilization of such areas is acting as an efficient approach to release the intensity in land utilization for mountainous areas in China, and needs further study. By summarizing related domestic concepts regarding LSHL,and taking Lu County of Sichuan province as the sample,this paper defined the scope of LSHL and extracted a total coverage of 331. 71 km2 LSHL.Then based on the landscape ecological security patterns theory,we have established the landscape ecological security pattern of Lu County by the minimum cumulative resistance model,targeting to achieve ecological land protection. Moreover,LSHL of different landscape security levels is further classified through overlay analysis on the current utilization status of the LSHL. The LSHL is classified into four categories, including prioritized development type,moderate development type, limited development type and prohibited development type. Their scopes of areas are 108. 72,97. 03,68. 36 and 57. 60 km2 respectively. In addition,respective land utilization and exploitation plan for LSHL are proposed according to the analysis of characteristics of each type. The result has provided scientific references for the definition,establishment of landscape ecological security pattern as well as the appropriate exploitation and utilization of the LSHL.

Long-Term Cumulative Damage Model of Historical Timber Member under Varying Hygrothermal Environment

A long-term damage cumulative model for the duration of load effect of structural timber is proposed in this paper, which is economical in analysis as well as involving long-term hygrothermal effect. Based on the Miner linear damage cumulative theory, the cumulative damage model is applied to analyze the annual hygrothermal, daily cyclic thermal and daily cyclic relative humidity＇s effect on load-duration behavior and to calculate the sum of damage in one year. The results indicate that the annual and daily hygrothermal effect should be taken into consideration when calculating the damage accumulation, in which the influence levels from large to small are annual hygrothermal, daily relative humidity and daily thermal effect, Considering both annual and daily hygrothermal variations as external loads the long-term model is determined. Its application to service-life prediction of a historic timber structure verifies the feasibility and high-efficiency of the proposed approach.

Statistical Inference for a Simple Step Stress Model with Competing Risks Based on Generalized Type-ⅠHybrid Censoring

This paper investigates a simple step-stress accelerated lifetime test(SSALT)model for the inferential analysis of exponential competing risks data.A generalized type-I hybrid censoring scheme is employed to improve the efficiency and controllability of the test.Firstly,the MLEs for parameters are established based on the cumulative exposure model(CEM).Then the conditional moment generating function(MGF)for unknown parameters is set up using conditional expectation and multiple integral techniques.Thirdly,confidence intervals(CIs)are constructed by the exact MGF-based method,the approximate normality-based method,and the bias-corrected and accelerated(BCa)percentile bootstrap method.Finally,we present simulation studies and an illustrative example to compare the performances of different methods.

Research of Step-down Stress Accelerated Degradation Data Assessment Method of a Certain Type of Missile Tank

The performance degradation rates of the missile tank are generally time-varying functions uneasily evaluated by general classical evaluation methods. This paper develops a segmented nonlinear accelerated degradation model （SNADM） based on the equivalent method of accumulative damage theory, which tackles the problem that product life is difficult to be determined with degradation rate being a function of the variable of time. A segmented expression of the function of population accumulative degradation is derived. And combined with nonlinear function, an accelerated degradation function, i.e., SNADM is obtained. The parameters of the SNADM are identified by numerical iteration, and the statistical function of degradation track is extrapolated. The reliability function is determined through the type of random process of the degradation distribution. Then an evaluation of product storage life is undertaken by combining the statistical function of degradation track, reliability function and threshold. An example of a missile tank undergoes a step-down stress accelerated degradation test （SDSADT）, in which the results with the SNADM and the classical method are evaluated and compared. The technology introduced is validated with the resultant coincidence of both evaluated and field storage lives.