Customer churns remains a key focus in this research, using artificial intelligence-based technique of machine learning. Research is based on the feature-based analysis four main features were used that are selected o...Customer churns remains a key focus in this research, using artificial intelligence-based technique of machine learning. Research is based on the feature-based analysis four main features were used that are selected on the basis of our customer churn to deduct the meaning full analysis of the data set. Data-set is taken from the Kaggle that is about the fine food review having more than half a million records in it. This research remains on feature based analysis that is further concluded using confusion matrix. In this research we are using confusion matrix to conclude the customer churn results. Such specific analysis helps e-commerce business for real time growth in their specific products focusing more sales and to analyze which product is getting outage. Moreover, after applying the techniques, Support Vector Machine and K-Nearest Neighbour perform better than the random forest in this particular scenario. Using confusion matrix for obtaining the results three things are obtained that are precision, recall and accuracy. The result explains feature-based analysis on fine food reviews, Amazon at customer churn Support Vector Machine performed better as in overall comparison.展开更多
As the banking industry gradually steps into the digital era of Bank 4.0,business competition is becoming increasingly fierce,and banks are also facing the problem of massive customer churn.To better maintain their cu...As the banking industry gradually steps into the digital era of Bank 4.0,business competition is becoming increasingly fierce,and banks are also facing the problem of massive customer churn.To better maintain their customer resources,it is crucial for banks to accurately predict customers with a tendency to churn.Aiming at the typical binary classification problem like customer churn,this paper establishes an early-warning model for credit card customer churn.That is a dual search algorithm named GSAIBAS by incorporating Golden Sine Algorithm(GSA)and an Improved Beetle Antennae Search(IBAS)is proposed to optimize the parameters of the CatBoost algorithm,which forms the GSAIBAS-CatBoost model.Especially,considering that the BAS algorithm has simple parameters and is easy to fall into local optimum,the Sigmoid nonlinear convergence factor and the lane flight equation are introduced to adjust the fixed step size of beetle.Then this improved BAS algorithm with variable step size is fused with the GSA to form a GSAIBAS algorithm which can achieve dual optimization.Moreover,an empirical analysis is made according to the data set of credit card customers from Analyttica official platform.The empirical results show that the values of Area Under Curve(AUC)and recall of the proposedmodel in this paper reach 96.15%and 95.56%,respectively,which are significantly better than the other 9 common machine learning models.Compared with several existing optimization algorithms,GSAIBAS algorithm has higher precision in the parameter optimization for CatBoost.Combined with two other customer churn data sets on Kaggle data platform,it is further verified that the model proposed in this paper is also valid and feasible.展开更多
In view of the fact that the prediction effect of influential financial customer churn in the Internet of Things environment is difficult to achieve the expectation,at the smart contract level of the blockchain,a cust...In view of the fact that the prediction effect of influential financial customer churn in the Internet of Things environment is difficult to achieve the expectation,at the smart contract level of the blockchain,a customer churn prediction framework based on situational awareness and integrating customer attributes,the impact of project hotspots on customer interests,and customer satisfaction with the project has been built.This framework introduces the background factors in the financial customer environment,and further discusses the relationship between customers,the background of customers and the characteristics of pre-lost customers.The improved Singular Value Decomposition(SVD)algorithm and the time decay function are used to optimize the search and analysis of the characteristics of pre-lost customers,and the key index combination is screened to obtain the data of potential lost customers.The framework will change with time according to the customer’s interest,adding the time factor to the customer churn prediction,and improving the dimensionality reduction and prediction generalization ability in feature selection.Logistic regression,naive Bayes and decision tree are used to establish a prediction model in the experiment,and it is compared with the financial customer churn prediction framework under situational awareness.The prediction results of the framework are evaluated from four aspects:accuracy,accuracy,recall rate and F-measure.The experimental results show that the context-aware customer churn prediction framework can be effectively applied to predict customer churn trends,so as to obtain potential customer data with high churn probability,and then these data can be transmitted to the company’s customer service department in time,so as to improve customer churn rate and customer loyalty through accurate service.展开更多
Background:Given the importance of customers as the most valuable assets of organizations,customer retention seems to be an essential,basic requirement for any organization.Banks are no exception to this rule.The comp...Background:Given the importance of customers as the most valuable assets of organizations,customer retention seems to be an essential,basic requirement for any organization.Banks are no exception to this rule.The competitive atmosphere within which electronic banking services are provided by different banks increases the necessity of customer retention.Methods:Being based on existing information technologies which allow one to collect data from organizations’databases,data mining introduces a powerful tool for the extraction of knowledge from huge amounts of data.In this research,the decision tree technique was applied to build a model incorporating this knowledge.Results:The results represent the characteristics of churned customers.Conclusions:Bank managers can identify churners in future using the results of decision tree.They should be provide some strategies for customers whose features are getting more likely to churner’s features.展开更多
Recently, it has been seen that the ensemble classifier is an effective way to enhance the prediction performance. However, it usually suffers from the problem of how to construct an appropriate classifier based on a ...Recently, it has been seen that the ensemble classifier is an effective way to enhance the prediction performance. However, it usually suffers from the problem of how to construct an appropriate classifier based on a set of complex data, for example,the data with many dimensions or hierarchical attributes. This study proposes a method to constructe an ensemble classifier based on the key attributes. In addition to its high-performance on precision shared by common ensemble classifiers, the calculation results are highly intelligible and thus easy for understanding.Furthermore, the experimental results based on the real data collected from China Mobile show that the keyattributes-based ensemble classifier has the good performance on both of the classifier construction and the customer churn prediction.展开更多
Customer churn prediction model refers to a certain algorithm model that can predict in advance whether the current subscriber will terminate the contract with the current operator in the future.Many scholars currentl...Customer churn prediction model refers to a certain algorithm model that can predict in advance whether the current subscriber will terminate the contract with the current operator in the future.Many scholars currently introduce different depth models for customer churn prediction research,but deep modeling research on the features of historical behavior sequences generated by users over time is lacked.In this paper,a customer churn prediction model based on user behavior sequences is proposed.In this method,a long-short term memory(LSTM)network is introduced to learn the overall interest preferences of user behavior sequences.And the multi-headed attention mechanism is used to learn the collaborative information between multiple behaviors of users from multiple perspectives and to carry out the capture of information about various features of users.Experimentally validated on a real telecom dataset,the method has better prediction performance and further enhances the capability of the customer churn prediction system.展开更多
To address the prominent problems faced by customer churn in telecom enterprise management, a telecom customer churn prediction model integrating GA-XGBoost and SHAP is proposed. By using the ADASYN algorithm for data...To address the prominent problems faced by customer churn in telecom enterprise management, a telecom customer churn prediction model integrating GA-XGBoost and SHAP is proposed. By using the ADASYN algorithm for data processing on the unbalanced sample set;based on the GA-XGBoost model, the XGBoost algorithm is used to construct the telecom customer churn prediction model, and the hyperparameters of the model are optimized by using the genetic algorithm. The experimental results show that compared with traditional machine learning methods such as GBDT, decision tree, KNN and single XGBoost model, the improved XGBoost model has better performance in recall, F1 value and AUC value;the GA-XGBoost model is integrated with SHAP framework to analyze and explain the important features affecting telecom customer churn, which is more in line with the telecom industry to predict customer the actual situation of churn.展开更多
With the rapid development of interest rate market and big data,the banking industry has shown the obvious phenomenon of“two or eight law”,20%of the high quality customers occupy most of the bank’s assets,how to pr...With the rapid development of interest rate market and big data,the banking industry has shown the obvious phenomenon of“two or eight law”,20%of the high quality customers occupy most of the bank’s assets,how to prevent the loss of bank credit card customers has become a growing concern for banks.Therefore,it is particularly important to establish a customer churn early warning model.In this paper,we will use the random forest method to establish a customer churn early warning model,focusing on the churn of bank credit card customers and predicting the possibility of future churn of customers.Due to the large data size of banks,the complexity of their customer base,and the diversity of user characteristics,it is not easy for banks to accurately predict churned customers,and there are few customer churn early warning studies suitable for banks.Compared with the traditional bank credit risk prediction algorithm,this method is proved to be useful in the early stage of churn warning,and has the advantages of high prediction accuracy,large amount of processed data,and good model interpretability,which can help to retain valuable customers in advance and thus achieve the purpose of reducing cost and increasing efficiency.展开更多
In the insurance sector, a massive volume of data is being generatedon a daily basis due to a vast client base. Decision makers and businessanalysts emphasized that attaining new customers is costlier than retainingex...In the insurance sector, a massive volume of data is being generatedon a daily basis due to a vast client base. Decision makers and businessanalysts emphasized that attaining new customers is costlier than retainingexisting ones. The success of retention initiatives is determined not only bythe accuracy of forecasting churners but also by the timing of the forecast.Previous works on churn forecast presented models for anticipating churnquarterly or monthly with an emphasis on customers’ static behavior. Thispaper’s objective is to calculate daily churn based on dynamic variations inclient behavior. Training excellent models to further identify potential churningcustomers helps insurance companies make decisions to retain customerswhile also identifying areas for improvement. Thus, it is possible to identifyand analyse clients who are likely to churn, allowing for a reduction in thecost of support and maintenance. Binary Golden Eagle Optimizer (BGEO)is used to select optimal features from the datasets in a preprocessing step.As a result, this research characterized the customer’s daily behavior usingvarious models such as RFM (Recency, Frequency, Monetary), MultivariateTime Series (MTS), Statistics-based Model (SM), Survival analysis (SA),Deep learning (DL) based methodologies such as Recurrent Neural Network(RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU),and Customized Extreme Learning Machine (CELM) are framed the problemof daily forecasting using this description. It can be concluded that all modelsproduced better overall outcomes with only slight variations in performancemeasures. The proposed CELM outperforms all other models in terms ofaccuracy (96.4).展开更多
Customer retention is one of the challenging issues in different business sectors,and variousfirms utilize customer churn prediction(CCP)process to retain existing customers.Because of the direct impact on the company ...Customer retention is one of the challenging issues in different business sectors,and variousfirms utilize customer churn prediction(CCP)process to retain existing customers.Because of the direct impact on the company revenues,particularly in the telecommunication sector,firms are needed to design effective CCP models.The recent advances in machine learning(ML)and deep learning(DL)models enable researchers to introduce accurate CCP models in the telecom-munication sector.CCP can be considered as a classification problem,which aims to classify the customer into churners and non-churners.With this motivation,this article focuses on designing an arithmetic optimization algorithm(AOA)with stacked bidirectional long short-term memory(SBLSTM)model for CCP.The proposed AOA-SBLSTM model intends to proficiently forecast the occurrence of CC in the telecommunication industry.Initially,the AOA-SBLSTM model per-forms pre-processing to transform the original data into a useful format.Besides,the SBLSTM model is employed to categorize data into churners and non-chur-ners.To improve the CCP outcomes of the SBLSTM model,an optimal hyper-parameter tuning process using AOA is developed.A widespread simulation analysis of the AOA-SBLSTM model is tested using a benchmark dataset with 3333 samples and 21 features.The experimental outcomes reported the promising performance of the AOA-SBLSTM model over the recent approaches.展开更多
文摘Customer churns remains a key focus in this research, using artificial intelligence-based technique of machine learning. Research is based on the feature-based analysis four main features were used that are selected on the basis of our customer churn to deduct the meaning full analysis of the data set. Data-set is taken from the Kaggle that is about the fine food review having more than half a million records in it. This research remains on feature based analysis that is further concluded using confusion matrix. In this research we are using confusion matrix to conclude the customer churn results. Such specific analysis helps e-commerce business for real time growth in their specific products focusing more sales and to analyze which product is getting outage. Moreover, after applying the techniques, Support Vector Machine and K-Nearest Neighbour perform better than the random forest in this particular scenario. Using confusion matrix for obtaining the results three things are obtained that are precision, recall and accuracy. The result explains feature-based analysis on fine food reviews, Amazon at customer churn Support Vector Machine performed better as in overall comparison.
基金This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.72071150,71871174).
文摘As the banking industry gradually steps into the digital era of Bank 4.0,business competition is becoming increasingly fierce,and banks are also facing the problem of massive customer churn.To better maintain their customer resources,it is crucial for banks to accurately predict customers with a tendency to churn.Aiming at the typical binary classification problem like customer churn,this paper establishes an early-warning model for credit card customer churn.That is a dual search algorithm named GSAIBAS by incorporating Golden Sine Algorithm(GSA)and an Improved Beetle Antennae Search(IBAS)is proposed to optimize the parameters of the CatBoost algorithm,which forms the GSAIBAS-CatBoost model.Especially,considering that the BAS algorithm has simple parameters and is easy to fall into local optimum,the Sigmoid nonlinear convergence factor and the lane flight equation are introduced to adjust the fixed step size of beetle.Then this improved BAS algorithm with variable step size is fused with the GSA to form a GSAIBAS algorithm which can achieve dual optimization.Moreover,an empirical analysis is made according to the data set of credit card customers from Analyttica official platform.The empirical results show that the values of Area Under Curve(AUC)and recall of the proposedmodel in this paper reach 96.15%and 95.56%,respectively,which are significantly better than the other 9 common machine learning models.Compared with several existing optimization algorithms,GSAIBAS algorithm has higher precision in the parameter optimization for CatBoost.Combined with two other customer churn data sets on Kaggle data platform,it is further verified that the model proposed in this paper is also valid and feasible.
基金This work was supported by Shandong social science planning and research project in 2021(No.21CPYJ40).
文摘In view of the fact that the prediction effect of influential financial customer churn in the Internet of Things environment is difficult to achieve the expectation,at the smart contract level of the blockchain,a customer churn prediction framework based on situational awareness and integrating customer attributes,the impact of project hotspots on customer interests,and customer satisfaction with the project has been built.This framework introduces the background factors in the financial customer environment,and further discusses the relationship between customers,the background of customers and the characteristics of pre-lost customers.The improved Singular Value Decomposition(SVD)algorithm and the time decay function are used to optimize the search and analysis of the characteristics of pre-lost customers,and the key index combination is screened to obtain the data of potential lost customers.The framework will change with time according to the customer’s interest,adding the time factor to the customer churn prediction,and improving the dimensionality reduction and prediction generalization ability in feature selection.Logistic regression,naive Bayes and decision tree are used to establish a prediction model in the experiment,and it is compared with the financial customer churn prediction framework under situational awareness.The prediction results of the framework are evaluated from four aspects:accuracy,accuracy,recall rate and F-measure.The experimental results show that the context-aware customer churn prediction framework can be effectively applied to predict customer churn trends,so as to obtain potential customer data with high churn probability,and then these data can be transmitted to the company’s customer service department in time,so as to improve customer churn rate and customer loyalty through accurate service.
文摘Background:Given the importance of customers as the most valuable assets of organizations,customer retention seems to be an essential,basic requirement for any organization.Banks are no exception to this rule.The competitive atmosphere within which electronic banking services are provided by different banks increases the necessity of customer retention.Methods:Being based on existing information technologies which allow one to collect data from organizations’databases,data mining introduces a powerful tool for the extraction of knowledge from huge amounts of data.In this research,the decision tree technique was applied to build a model incorporating this knowledge.Results:The results represent the characteristics of churned customers.Conclusions:Bank managers can identify churners in future using the results of decision tree.They should be provide some strategies for customers whose features are getting more likely to churner’s features.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grants No.71271044 and 71572029
文摘Recently, it has been seen that the ensemble classifier is an effective way to enhance the prediction performance. However, it usually suffers from the problem of how to construct an appropriate classifier based on a set of complex data, for example,the data with many dimensions or hierarchical attributes. This study proposes a method to constructe an ensemble classifier based on the key attributes. In addition to its high-performance on precision shared by common ensemble classifiers, the calculation results are highly intelligible and thus easy for understanding.Furthermore, the experimental results based on the real data collected from China Mobile show that the keyattributes-based ensemble classifier has the good performance on both of the classifier construction and the customer churn prediction.
文摘Customer churn prediction model refers to a certain algorithm model that can predict in advance whether the current subscriber will terminate the contract with the current operator in the future.Many scholars currently introduce different depth models for customer churn prediction research,but deep modeling research on the features of historical behavior sequences generated by users over time is lacked.In this paper,a customer churn prediction model based on user behavior sequences is proposed.In this method,a long-short term memory(LSTM)network is introduced to learn the overall interest preferences of user behavior sequences.And the multi-headed attention mechanism is used to learn the collaborative information between multiple behaviors of users from multiple perspectives and to carry out the capture of information about various features of users.Experimentally validated on a real telecom dataset,the method has better prediction performance and further enhances the capability of the customer churn prediction system.
文摘To address the prominent problems faced by customer churn in telecom enterprise management, a telecom customer churn prediction model integrating GA-XGBoost and SHAP is proposed. By using the ADASYN algorithm for data processing on the unbalanced sample set;based on the GA-XGBoost model, the XGBoost algorithm is used to construct the telecom customer churn prediction model, and the hyperparameters of the model are optimized by using the genetic algorithm. The experimental results show that compared with traditional machine learning methods such as GBDT, decision tree, KNN and single XGBoost model, the improved XGBoost model has better performance in recall, F1 value and AUC value;the GA-XGBoost model is integrated with SHAP framework to analyze and explain the important features affecting telecom customer churn, which is more in line with the telecom industry to predict customer the actual situation of churn.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.72073041)Open Foundation for the University Innovation Platform in Hunan Province(No.18K103)+2 种基金2011 Collaborative Innovation Center for Development and Utilization of Finance and Economics Big Data Property,Universities of Hunan Province,Open Project(Nos.20181901CRP03,20181901CRP04,20181901CRP05)2020 Hunan Provincial Higher Education Teaching Reform Research Project(Nos.HNJG-2020-1130,HNJG-2020-1124)2020 General Project of Hunan Social Science Fund(No.20B16).
文摘With the rapid development of interest rate market and big data,the banking industry has shown the obvious phenomenon of“two or eight law”,20%of the high quality customers occupy most of the bank’s assets,how to prevent the loss of bank credit card customers has become a growing concern for banks.Therefore,it is particularly important to establish a customer churn early warning model.In this paper,we will use the random forest method to establish a customer churn early warning model,focusing on the churn of bank credit card customers and predicting the possibility of future churn of customers.Due to the large data size of banks,the complexity of their customer base,and the diversity of user characteristics,it is not easy for banks to accurately predict churned customers,and there are few customer churn early warning studies suitable for banks.Compared with the traditional bank credit risk prediction algorithm,this method is proved to be useful in the early stage of churn warning,and has the advantages of high prediction accuracy,large amount of processed data,and good model interpretability,which can help to retain valuable customers in advance and thus achieve the purpose of reducing cost and increasing efficiency.
文摘In the insurance sector, a massive volume of data is being generatedon a daily basis due to a vast client base. Decision makers and businessanalysts emphasized that attaining new customers is costlier than retainingexisting ones. The success of retention initiatives is determined not only bythe accuracy of forecasting churners but also by the timing of the forecast.Previous works on churn forecast presented models for anticipating churnquarterly or monthly with an emphasis on customers’ static behavior. Thispaper’s objective is to calculate daily churn based on dynamic variations inclient behavior. Training excellent models to further identify potential churningcustomers helps insurance companies make decisions to retain customerswhile also identifying areas for improvement. Thus, it is possible to identifyand analyse clients who are likely to churn, allowing for a reduction in thecost of support and maintenance. Binary Golden Eagle Optimizer (BGEO)is used to select optimal features from the datasets in a preprocessing step.As a result, this research characterized the customer’s daily behavior usingvarious models such as RFM (Recency, Frequency, Monetary), MultivariateTime Series (MTS), Statistics-based Model (SM), Survival analysis (SA),Deep learning (DL) based methodologies such as Recurrent Neural Network(RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU),and Customized Extreme Learning Machine (CELM) are framed the problemof daily forecasting using this description. It can be concluded that all modelsproduced better overall outcomes with only slight variations in performancemeasures. The proposed CELM outperforms all other models in terms ofaccuracy (96.4).
文摘Customer retention is one of the challenging issues in different business sectors,and variousfirms utilize customer churn prediction(CCP)process to retain existing customers.Because of the direct impact on the company revenues,particularly in the telecommunication sector,firms are needed to design effective CCP models.The recent advances in machine learning(ML)and deep learning(DL)models enable researchers to introduce accurate CCP models in the telecom-munication sector.CCP can be considered as a classification problem,which aims to classify the customer into churners and non-churners.With this motivation,this article focuses on designing an arithmetic optimization algorithm(AOA)with stacked bidirectional long short-term memory(SBLSTM)model for CCP.The proposed AOA-SBLSTM model intends to proficiently forecast the occurrence of CC in the telecommunication industry.Initially,the AOA-SBLSTM model per-forms pre-processing to transform the original data into a useful format.Besides,the SBLSTM model is employed to categorize data into churners and non-chur-ners.To improve the CCP outcomes of the SBLSTM model,an optimal hyper-parameter tuning process using AOA is developed.A widespread simulation analysis of the AOA-SBLSTM model is tested using a benchmark dataset with 3333 samples and 21 features.The experimental outcomes reported the promising performance of the AOA-SBLSTM model over the recent approaches.