Cotton Reserves Auctions Touch 57% of Release Plan but Prices Rally

With manufacturing slowly recovering amid improving economic conditions, cotton demand has increased prompting more orders among mills. However, with a deficient supply of cotton in the market, prices extend gains since Oct. 2009.

Reserve estimation of an open pit mine under price uncertainty by real option approach

Reserve estimation is a key to find the correct NPV in a mining project. The most important factor in reserve estimation is the metal price. Metal price fluctuations in recent years were exaggerated, and imposed a high degree of uncertainty to the reserve estimation, and in consequence to the whole mine planning procedure. Real option approach is an efficient method of decision making in the uncertain conditions. This approach has been used for evaluation of defined natural resources projects until now. This study considering the metal price uncertainty used real option approach to prepare a methodology for reserve estimation in open pit mines. This study was done on a copper cylindrical deposit, but the achieved methodology can be adjusted for all kinds of deposits. This methodology was comprehensively described through the examples in such a manner that can be used by the mine planners.

China’s Price System Jeopardizes its Grain Reserves

2008 is a year of bumper harvest in summer grain across China. The failure of numerous state-owned grain depots to purchase grain in times of bumper harvest, however, directly threatens grain reserve security and state control over grain prices in the upcoming year. An important factor underpinning the difficulty of state grain depots to purchase grain is the unwillingness of farmers to sell grain due to the excess of the current market price over the government "protected price" aimed at preventing cheap grain from harming farmers. When grassroots grain depots find themselves in trouble, foreign capital stealthily moves in by taking advantage of this situation. To fulfill grain storage tasks and receive various state subsidies, some state-owned grain depots have no alternative but to surreptitiously raise the purchase price. By contrast, some not so courageous state-owned grain depots can only borrow money to finance the purchase of commodity grain at market prices and subsequently figure out a way to pay back such loans. Behind such distorted grain purchase behavior lies a rough and rugged history of grain price reform in China.

Optimizing continuous cover management of boreal forest when timber prices and tree growth are stochastic

Background： Decisions on forest management are made under risk and uncertainty because the stand development cannot be predicted exactly and future timber prices are unknown. Deterministic calculations may lead to biased advice on optimal forest management. The study optimized continuous cover management of boreal forest in a situation where tree growth, regeneration, and timber prices include uncertainty. Methods： Both anticipatory and adaptive optimization approaches were used. The adaptive approach optimized the reservation price function instead of fixed cutting years. The future prices of different timber assortments were described by cross-correlated auto-regressive models. The high variation around ingrowth model was simulated using a model that describes the cross- and autocorrelations of the regeneration results of different species and years. Tree growth was predicted with individual tree models, the predictions of which were adjusted on the basis of a climate-induced growth trend, which was stochastic. Residuals of the deterministic diameter growth model were also simulated. They consisted of random tree factors and cross- and autocorrelated temporal terms. Results： Of the analyzed factors, timber price caused most uncertainty in the calculation of the net present value of a certain management schedule. Ingrowth and climate trend were less significant sources of risk and uncertainty than tree growth. Stochastic anticipatory optimization led to more diverse post-cutting stand structures than obtained in deterministic optimization. Cutting interval was shorter when risk and uncertainty were included in the analyses. Conclusions： Adaptive optimization and management led to 6%-14% higher net present values than obtained in management that was based on anticipatory optimization. Increasing risk aversion of the forest landowner led to earlier cuttings in a mature stand. The effect of risk attitude on optimization results was small.

Integrating innovative library e-reserves service into teaching and learning at Shanghai Jiao Tong University

Purpose: Fully integrating its e-reserves service into the university's course management system has become the primary design goal of the innovative e-reserves service system at Shanghai Jiao Tong University(SJTU) Library.Design/methodology/approach: Through blending library and information service into the teaching and learning process, SJTU Library has effectively combined its reserves service into the user learning environment. The main metadata model and the design of various interfaces of the e-reserves service system are introduced.Findings: E-reserves has been integrated into the course management system. Users can directly access relevant resources when they browse the customized course page. It is more convenient for teachers to add reserves items, and the added items can be made available simultaneously on SJTU Library's resource discovery platform automatically.Research limitations: At present, e-reserves items are mainly books, and more other types of reserves materials are needed to be provided. Some relevant copyright issues should be addressed.Practical implications: Using a series of interface interactions, the e-reserves service has been integrated into the university's course management system. It is convenient for students to access customized e-reserves service during their learning process.Originality/value: We achieved interconnection between the e-reserves and the university's course management system. Information on the e-reserves Web page is automatically updated.SJTU Library provides customized e-reserves service in the course management system.

Enhancing customers prevention efforts:An incentive feedback mechanism design

To improve the inefficient prevention caused by customers unwillingness to adopt prevention strategies in health management,an incentive feedback mechanism that is based on game theory and contract design theory is introduced.The conditions for making customers and health maintenance organizations(HMOs)willing to participate in the proposed mechanism are given.A dual nonlinear programming model is used to identify the optimal prevention effort of customers and the pricing strategy of HMOs.Results show that to generate increased benefits,HMOs need to consider cost sharing when customers are not familiar with the proposed health services.When health services are gradually accepted,the cost sharing factor can be gradually reduced.Simulation shows that under random circumstances in which the market reaches a certain size,the proposed method exhibits a positive network externality.Motivated by network externality,HMOs only need to make their customers understand that the larger the number of participants,the greater the utility of each person.Such customers may then spontaneously invite others to purchase insurance.

Analysis of Influence of Price to Customer Satisfaction Based on the Prediction Models

For the purpose of improvement of the sales, confirming the influence of price to the sales and customer satisfaction of the product is important. The most suitable price should be determined from the view point of customers, and it is extremely important to implement a high quality product corresponding to the real need of customers. It may have close relationship between cost and an expense to implement the individual inherent attribute of system product. Also, it may have close relationship between production cost and price of product. For the purpose of improvement of the customer satisfaction for quality of system product, the method of quantitative quality requirement and evaluation based on the ISO/IEC9126 quality model that includes six quality characteristics is widely recognized. In the precedent study, I have introduced the requirements definition method for the quality of system product based on the system quality model defined in ISO/IEC9126 and proposed the effectiveness of it statistically. In the previous study, I have also confirmed the relationship between inherent attributes of the product and quantitative result of the measured value of total customer satisfaction from the view point of six quality characteristics statistically. I performed the development of the prediction model to estimate the total customer satisfaction for the system product from the view point of inherent attribute of the product. And, I have proposed the effectiveness of application of the estimated prediction model and possibility of improvement of the total customer satisfaction of a system product. Based on the result of previous study, in this paper, I propose the result of investigation of influence of price to customer satisfaction, and the possibility of application of estimated prediction model for improvement of the total customer satisfaction of system product based on the price of product. Also, based on the result of investigation of relationship among price and inherent attributes of product, I propose the possibility of application of estimated prediction model and improvement of the price of system product from the view point of inherent attributes of product.

Low cost development strategy for oilfields in China under low oil prices

By reviewing the challenges in the development of oilfields in China under low oil prices,this study analyzes the root causes of cost rising,put forwards the low cost oilfield development strategy and specific paths to realize the strategy,and predicts the development potential and prospect of oilfields in China.In addition to the low grade of the reservoir and high development maturation,the fundamental reasons of development full cost rising of oilfields in China are as follows:(1)Facing the problem of resources turning poorer in quality,we have built production capacity at a pace too fast before making enough technical and experimental preparation;(2)technical engineering service model leads to high service cost;(3)team of oil development expertise and matched engineering system cannot satisfy the technical requirements of stabilizing oil production,controlling water cut and fine development.To realize development at low cost,the core is to increase economic recoverable reserves.The concrete paths include:(1)to explore the"Daqing oilfield development culture",improve the ability of leaders in charge of development,and inspire potential of staff;(2)to improve the ability of reservoir dynamics control,and implement precise development by following scientific principles;(3)to speed up integration of water flooding and enhanced oil recovery(EOR)and technological upgrading in order to enhance oil recovery;(4)to innovate key techniques in gas flooding and accelerate the industrial popularization of gas flooding;(5)to break the related transaction barriers and create new management models;and(6)to collaboratively optimize strategic layout and cultivate key oil bases.Although oilfield development in China faces huge challenges in cost,the low-cost development strategy will succeed as long as strategic development of mature and new oil fields is well planned.The cores to lower cost are to control decline rate and enhance oil recovery in mature oil fields,and increase single well productivity through technical innovation and improve engineering service efficiency through management innovation in new oil fields.

The Changes in World Oil Prices, Monetary Factors, and Foreign Index Toward Composite Index Movement： Indonesian Case for the Period of 2005-2011

Capital market is one of the drivers of the economy through the formation of capital investor excess as well as an indicator of a country＇s economy. Movement of stock price index is often influenced by many factors, derived from the company＇s performance, monetary factor, and changes in world oil prices. This study highlights the problem in world oil prices due to political turmoil in the Middle East. The samples are taken from the Jakarta Composite Stock Price Index （JCI）, oil prices, Indonesian inflation rate, Certificate of Bank Indonesia＇s （CBI） rate, and the reserve assets, during the period from January 2005 to December 2011 （84 months）. Using the data published by the Bank of Indonesia, reports of the Central Bureau of Statistics （Biro Pusat Statistik, BPS）, and other relevant sources, the data analyzed through the Eviews 7.1. The main objective of this study is to examine the effect of oil prices, foreign stock price index, and monetary variables （inflation rate, CBI rate, country＇s foreign reserves, and others） toward the JCI analyzed through the error correction model （ECM）. Hypothesis testing with the F-test for the 95% confidence level indicates that the oil price, exchange rate （Indonesian Rupiah （IDR）/United States Dollar （USD））, CBI rate, foreign exchange reserves, the Dow Jones Index, and the Taiwan stock index, both simultaneously as well as partially have a significant influence on the JCI.

Methodology for Obtaining Electricity-Price Patterns in Customer Response Programs

The main objective of electricity regulators when establishing electricity markets is to decrease the cost of electricity through competition. However, this scenario cannot be achieved without a full participation of the electricity demand by reacting against electricity prices. The aim of this research is to develop tools for helping customers and aggregators to join price and demand response programs, while helping them to hedge against the risk of short-term price volatility. In this way, the capacity of and hybrid methodology （Self-Organizing Maps and Statistical Ward＇s Linkage） to classify high electricity market prices is analysed. Besides, with the help of Non-Parametric Estimation, some price-patterns were found in the abovementioned clusters. The contained knowledge within these patterns supplies customer market-based information on which to base its energy use decisions. The interest for this participation of customers in markets is growing in developed countries to obtain a higher elasticity in demand. Results show the capability of this approach to improve data management and select coherent policies to accomplish cleared demand offers amongst different price scenarios in a more flexible way.

A Practical Framework for Pricing of Backup Reserve and Wheeling in Power System

This paper presents a practical pricing model for backup reserve and wheeling, which attains a balanced strategy that ensures perceived benefits to both the buyer and the seller. The model and the associated computerized algorithm deal collectively with diverse issues, including： （1） fulfilling local firm real （and reactive） power demand requirements, （2） fulfilling local power reserve requirements, （3） buying firm real （and reactive） power from the grid, （4） buying reserve power from the grid, （5） exporting firm real （and reactive） power demand to remote load centers via the grid, （6） exporting reserve power via the grid, （7） wheeling of firm power demand to remote owned sites using the grid, and （8） wheeling reserve power to remote owned sites using grid. Practical implementation features of the computerized algorithms are also discussed with an illustrative case example.

A model of targeted advertising with customer recognition

A two-period duopoly model is developed to examine the competitive effects of targeted advertising with customer recognition （TACR）. In the model, two competing firms sell goods to end consumers in the first period, during which customer recognition is obtained. In the second period, advertising can be targeted toward different consumer types. Advertising is assumed to be persuasive in the way that consumer valuation is increased. Equilibrium decisions and profits in each period are derived, showing that the firm who loses the current competition will win in the future. As a result, forward-looking firms price less aggressively so that their long-term profits can be enhanced with the help of TACR. Particularly, TACR improves profits through three important effects： valuation increasing, customer poaching, and anti-competition. Finally, this paper investigates the welfare issues, showing that firms enhance profits at the expense of consumer surplus. It is, therefore, suggested that public sectors take a step to protect consumers with the rapid development of targeting technology.

基于Priceline的网上逆向拍卖的保留价策略

目的分析基于Pricline的网上逆向拍卖的保留价策略。方法采用不完全信息静态博弈。结果卖方最优保留价低于其成本,且随成本递增。结论所得出的结果对卖方有参照意义,符合现实情况。

基于Priceline的买方/卖方定价收益管理问题

以著名逆向拍卖网站 Priceline 为背景,研究买方定价和卖方定价下的收益管理问题.假定顾客到达是一任意的更新过程,决策时刻为顾客到达时刻,所以决策是离散时间的.建立了两种定价方式下的马氏决策过程模型,获得了最优策略的表达式.在传统收益管理问题中,通常是卖方定价、连续时间决策、同时需要假定顾客到达是一 Poisson 过程.对于买方定价,文中证明了,卖方是否知道到达顾客的报价信息不影响他的收益;同时,随着剩余物品数的增加,卖方的期望收益递增,而边际收益递减,最优价格(或报价)递减.文中讨论两种定价方式下卖方的期望收益之间的关系.考虑了顾客需求是多重的情形.最后,数值分析表明文中所得的结论是成立的.

Hidden Reserve Prices with Risk-Averse Bidders

In this paper, we provide an alternative explanation for why auctioneers often keep the reserve price hidden or secret. We consider a standard independent private values environment in which the buyers are risk-averse and the seller has private information about her valuation of the object to be auctioned. The seller uses a first-price sealed-bid auction mechanism combined with either an announced reserve price or a hidden reserve price. We compare the seller＇s ex ante expected profits under these two policies and find that the optimal hidden reserve price policy generates higher expected profits for the seller when the buyers are fairly risk-averse under particular restrictions on buyers＇ preferences and the distributions of private values. As the number of the buyers increases, the hidden reserve price is more likely to dominate. Numerical methods are used to demonstrate the generality of our main results.

Chinese Honey Positioning and Price Trend in Domestic Market

China's bee industry is a small proportion of domestic agriculture with fewer farmers, and the government didn't attach much attention to or give supports to it. Agricultural production sector does not fully recognize the economic value of honeybee pollination. Chinese beekeepers gain profits only from products such as honey, royal jelly and bee pollen. Because of the production mode that aims at gathering and producing more honey while neglecting the health care of bees and the quality of products; export enterprises lack guidance and knowledge in export inspection and quarantine and technical regulations, and thus, the average price of China's bee honey exports is much lower than that of other countries in the world. Meanwhile, in domestic market, given the sustained development of China's macro economy and increasing incomes of residents, people show increasing interests in the health care function of honey. Based on the survey data of honey market in Beijing, Hangzhou, Qingdao, Zhengzhou and Chengdu from 2012 to 2015, the paper analyzes the price feature of China's honey market and its formulation basis, and also compares prices of honey with the same quality in different markets. Moreover, the paper combines data from fixed observation places of honey products production, which is carried out by the economic research group of bee industry in 11 provinces, to discuss reasons for continuous honey price rising in domestic market. Lastly, the paper uses the honey as an example to analyze pricing strategy of agricultural products with health care functions. The paper hold the opinions that the keys to solve the problem that high quality agricultural material couldn't sell in high price and good and bad are mixed in the market, is to build up quality and price mechanism in the processing of raw material purchasing to the terminal market, publicize more products information and superior customer attractiveness on health care effect.

Cotton Reserves Auctions Touch 57% of Release Plan but Prices Rally

With manufacturing slowly recovering amid improving economic conditions, cotton demand has increased prompting more orders among mills. However, with a deficient supply of cotton in the market, prices

基于柔性契约的应急物资政企联合储备定价博弈模型

为提高突发事件应急物资保障能力与韧性、控制政府采购成本,构建基于柔性契约的应急物资政企联合储备定价博弈模型。以政府采购成本最小化、供应商利润最大化为目标,运用逆向归纳法依次求解供应商最优实物、原材料储备量决策和政府最优定价决策,并进行数值模拟仿真验证及变量敏感性分析。研究结果表明:与政府单独储备模式相比,该模型能够提升应急物资储备水平,提高政府应对突发事件的能力,同时降低政府采购成本并提高供应商收益,实现政企双方共赢。高灾害概率促使政府增加储备、企业调整生产,政府大规模的常规采购会给企业带来稳定收益,企业在现货市场供给率较大时会提高原材料储备量。灾害发生概率、现货市场采购价格、政府常规采购量、现货市场供给率等因素对政企双方决策及成本收益均有影响。研究结果可为政企双方应急物资储备量、采购价格以及激励双方合作储备提供决策参考。

大数据杀熟是否可以避免——基于演化博弈和仿真的分析

以节约公共资源和支持市场自由发展为出发点,建立平台与用户之间的演化博弈模型,探讨用户在可以自由切换平台的情境下,不同均衡点的形成条件及其稳定性。根据理论推导的条件,使用Octave进行数值仿真,以分析影响平台算法杀熟定价的因素,并确定不使用杀熟定价的理想状态所需满足的条件。同时,研究旨在探索除监管外,哪些措施可以帮助实现这一理想状态。研究结果表明,避免大数据杀熟并不一定需要依赖实时监控或罚款等手段,以市场化手段发展多个平台和鼓励平台竞争可能是最直接且可行的方法。

供应链客户的稳定能够促进金融市场的稳定吗——基于股价崩盘风险视角

利用2010—2020年沪深A股上市公司前五名客户结构动态变化数据,实证检验供应链客户的稳定是否能够抑制企业股价崩盘风险,以考察产品市场上的客户稳定对股票市场乃至整个金融市场体系安全稳定性的影响。研究发现,客户稳定度越高,企业的股价崩盘风险越低;异质性检验结果显示,在外部监督力量弱、客户集中度高、业务复杂度高以及客户地理距离近的企业中,客户稳定度对股价崩盘风险的抑制作用更强;机制分析表明,客户稳定度影响企业股价崩盘风险的两条作用路径分别是降低经营风险和提高信息披露质量。建议有关部门继续确保产业链供应链稳定,企业管理层积极维护与客户之间的稳定业务关系并引入大客户参与公司治理,投资者充分关注上市公司客户结构动态变化情况及其带来的影响。