This paper proposes the day-ahead electricity price forecasting using the artificial neural networks （ANN） and weighted least square （WLS） technique in the restructured electricity markets. Price forecasting is ve...This paper proposes the day-ahead electricity price forecasting using the artificial neural networks （ANN） and weighted least square （WLS） technique in the restructured electricity markets. Price forecasting is very important for online trading, e-commerce and power system operation. Forecasting the hourly locational marginal prices （LMP） in the electricity markets is a very important basis for the decision making in order to maximize the profits/benefits. The novel approach pro- posed in this paper for forecasting the electricity prices uses WLS technique and compares the results with the results obtained by using ANNs. To perform this price forecasting, the market knowledge is utilized to optimize the selection of input data for the electricity price forecasting tool. In this paper, price forecasting for Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland （PJM） interconnec- tion is demonstrated using the ANNs and the proposed WLS technique. The data used for this price forecasting is obtained from the PJM website. The forecasting results obtained by both methods are compared, which shows the effectiveness of the proposed forecasting approach. From the simulation results, it can be observed that the accuracy of prediction has increased in both seasons using the proposed WLS technique. Another important advantage of the proposed WLS technique is that it is not an iterative method.展开更多
The large-scale integration of renewable energy sources (RESs) brings huge challenges to the power system. A cost-effective reserve deployment and uncertainty pricing mechanism are critical to deal with the uncertaint...The large-scale integration of renewable energy sources (RESs) brings huge challenges to the power system. A cost-effective reserve deployment and uncertainty pricing mechanism are critical to deal with the uncertainty and variability of RES. To this end, this paper proposes a novel locational marginal pricing mechanism in day-ahead market for managing uncertainties from RES. Firstly, an improved multi-ellipsoidal uncertainty set (IMEUS) considering the temporal correlation and conditional correlation of wind power forecasting is formulated to better capture the uncertainty of wind power. The dimension of each ellipsoidal subset is optimized based on a comprehensive evaluation index to reduce the invalid region without large loss of modeling accuracy, so as to reduce the conservatism. Then, an IMEUS-based robust unit commitment (RUC) model and a robust economic dispatch (RED) model are established for the day-ahead market clearing. Both the reserve cost and ramping constraints are considered in the overall dispatch process. Furthermore, based on the Langrangian function of the RED model, a new locational marginal pricing mechanism is developed. The uncertainty locational marginal price (ULMP) is introduced to charge the RES for its uncertainties and reward the generators who provide reserve to mitigate uncertainties. The new pricing mechanism can provide effective price signals to incentivize the uncertainty management in the day-ahead market. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed mechanism is verified via numerous simulations on the PJM 5-bus system and IEEE 118-bus system.展开更多
文摘This paper proposes the day-ahead electricity price forecasting using the artificial neural networks （ANN） and weighted least square （WLS） technique in the restructured electricity markets. Price forecasting is very important for online trading, e-commerce and power system operation. Forecasting the hourly locational marginal prices （LMP） in the electricity markets is a very important basis for the decision making in order to maximize the profits/benefits. The novel approach pro- posed in this paper for forecasting the electricity prices uses WLS technique and compares the results with the results obtained by using ANNs. To perform this price forecasting, the market knowledge is utilized to optimize the selection of input data for the electricity price forecasting tool. In this paper, price forecasting for Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland （PJM） interconnec- tion is demonstrated using the ANNs and the proposed WLS technique. The data used for this price forecasting is obtained from the PJM website. The forecasting results obtained by both methods are compared, which shows the effectiveness of the proposed forecasting approach. From the simulation results, it can be observed that the accuracy of prediction has increased in both seasons using the proposed WLS technique. Another important advantage of the proposed WLS technique is that it is not an iterative method.
基金This work was supported in part by the National Key R&D Program of Chi‐na(No.2020YFE0200400)the National Nature Science Foundation of Chi‐na(No.51907140).
文摘The large-scale integration of renewable energy sources (RESs) brings huge challenges to the power system. A cost-effective reserve deployment and uncertainty pricing mechanism are critical to deal with the uncertainty and variability of RES. To this end, this paper proposes a novel locational marginal pricing mechanism in day-ahead market for managing uncertainties from RES. Firstly, an improved multi-ellipsoidal uncertainty set (IMEUS) considering the temporal correlation and conditional correlation of wind power forecasting is formulated to better capture the uncertainty of wind power. The dimension of each ellipsoidal subset is optimized based on a comprehensive evaluation index to reduce the invalid region without large loss of modeling accuracy, so as to reduce the conservatism. Then, an IMEUS-based robust unit commitment (RUC) model and a robust economic dispatch (RED) model are established for the day-ahead market clearing. Both the reserve cost and ramping constraints are considered in the overall dispatch process. Furthermore, based on the Langrangian function of the RED model, a new locational marginal pricing mechanism is developed. The uncertainty locational marginal price (ULMP) is introduced to charge the RES for its uncertainties and reward the generators who provide reserve to mitigate uncertainties. The new pricing mechanism can provide effective price signals to incentivize the uncertainty management in the day-ahead market. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed mechanism is verified via numerous simulations on the PJM 5-bus system and IEEE 118-bus system.
