Glacier area change (1993-2019) and its relationship to debris cover, proglacial lakes, and morphological parameters in the Chandra-Bhaga Basin, Western Himalaya, India

Glacier inventories serve as critical baseline data for understanding the impacts of climate change on glaciers.The present study maps the outlines of glaciers in the Chandra-Bhaga Basin(western Himalaya)for the years 1993,2000,2010,and 2019 using Landsat Thematic Mapper(TM),Enhanced Thematic Mapper(ETM),and Operational Land Imager(OLI)datasets.A total of 251 glaciers,each having an area above 0.5 km^(2),were identified,which include 216 clean-ice and 35 debris-covered glaciers.Area changes are estimated for three periods:1993-2000,2000-2010,and 2010-2019.The total glacierized area was 996±62 km^(2) in 1993,which decreased to 973±70 km^(2) in 2019.The mean rate of glacier area loss was higher in the recent decade(2010-2019),at 0.036 km^(2),compared to previous decades(0.029 km^(2) in 2000-2010 and 0.025 km^(2) in 1993-2000).Supraglacial debris cover changes are also mapped over the period of 1993 and 2019.It is found that the supraglacial debris cover increased by 14.12±2.54 km^(2)(15.2%)during 1993-2019.Extensive field surveys on Chhota Shigri,Panchi II,Patsio,Hamtah,Mulkila,and Yoche Lungpa glaciers were carried out to validate the glacier outlines and supraglacial debris cover estimated using satellite datasets.Controls of various morphological parameters on retreat were also analyzed.It is observed that small,clean ice,south oriented glaciers,and glaciers with proglacial lakes are losing area at faster rates than other glaciers in the basin.

Disaster Reduction Decision Support System Against Debris Flows and Landslides Along Highway in Mountainous Area

Highways in mountainous areas are easy to be damaged by such natural disasters as debris flows and landslides and disaster reduction decision support system (DRDSS) is one of the important means to mitigate these disasters. Guided by the theories and technologies of debris flow and landslide reduction and supported by geographical information system (GIS), remote sensing and database techniques, a DRDSS against debris flow and landslide along highways in mountainous areas has been established on the basis of such principles as pertinence, systematicness, effectiveness, easy to use, open and expandability. The system consists of database, disaster analysis models and decisions on reduction of debris flows and landslides, mainly functioning to zone disaster dangerous degree, analyze debris flow activity, simulate debris flow deposition and diffusion, analyze landslide stability, select optimal highway renovation scheme and plan disaster prevention and control engineering. This system has been applied successfully to the debris flow and landslide treatment works along Palongzangbu Section of Sichuan-Tibet Highway.

The Critical Rainfall Characteristics for Torrents and Debris Flows in the Wenchuan Earthquake Stricken Area

Critical rainfall assessment is a very important tool for hazard management of torrents and debris flows in mountainous areas. The Wenchuan Earthquake 2008 caused huge casualties and property damages in the earthquake-stricken area,which also generated large quantities of loose solid materials and increased occurrence probabilities of debris flows. There is an urgent need to quantify the critical rainfall distribution in the area so that better hazard management could be planned and if real time rainfall forecast is available,torrent and debris flow early-warning could be issued in advance. This study is based on 49-year observations (1954-2003) of up to 678 torrent and debris flow events. Detailed contour maps of 1 hour and 24 hour critical rainfalls have been generated (Due to the data limitation,there was insufficient 10 minute critical rainfall to make its contour map). Generally,the contour maps from 1 hour and 24 hours have similar patterns. Three zones with low,medium and high critical rainfalls have been identified. The characteristics of the critical rainfall zones are linked with the local vegetation cover and land forms. Further studies and observations are needed to validate the finding and improve the contour maps.

Magnitude-frequency relationship of debris flows in the Jiangjia Gully, China

The magnitude-frequency(MF) relationship of debris flows is the basis for engineering designs and risk quantification. However, because of the lack of debris flow monitoring data, research progress in this area has been relatively slow. The MF relationship of debris flows in Jiangjia Gully, Yunnan Province was evaluated based on a regression analysis of 178 debris flow events that occurred from 1987-2004. The magnitude-cumulative frequency(MCF) relationship of the debris flows in the Jiangjia Gully is consistent with the linear logarithmic transformation function. Moreover, observed data for debris flows in Hunshui Gully of Yunnan Province and Huoshao Gully, Liuwan Gully, and Niwan Gully of Gansu Province were used to verify the function. The results showed that the MCF relationship of highfrequency debris flows is consistent with the power law equation, although the regression coefficients in the equation are considerably different. Further analysis showed a strong correlation between the differences in the constants and the drainage area and daily maximum precipitation.

Risk assessment of glacial debris flow on alpine highway under climate change: A case study of Aierkuran Gully along Karakoram Highway

Glacial debris flows(GDFs) often occur in alpine regions that are subject to rapid climate change, and pose a serious threat to road systems. However, the ways that climate change impacts GDF risks along road systems remain poorly understood. Aierkuran Gully, located in eastern Pamir along Karakoram Highway(KKH), is a hotspot for GDF activity and climate change, and was thus selected to investigate the GDF risk to road systems under climate change conditions. Reg CM4.6 climate data for northwestern China were selected as climate projections during baseline(2011–2020) and future periods(2031–2040) under the Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP) 8.5. To reflect the coupling effect of rainfall and melt water that triggers GDF, a glacial hydrological model DETIM that considers both factors was applied to calculate the peak debris flow discharge. A FLO-2D model was calibrated based on high-quality data collected from a detailed field investigation and historical debris flow event. The FLO-2D model was used to simulate the debris flow depth and velocity during baseline and future periods under RCP8.5. The debris flow hazard was analyzed by integrating the maximum flow depth and momentum. Road structure vulnerability was further determined based on the economic value and susceptibility of hazard-affected objects. The GDF risk along KKH was assessed based on the GDF hazard and vulnerability analysis. Our results show that climate change would lead to amplified peak debris flow discharge, trigger highermagnitude GDF, and induce more severe damage and threats to the road system. Compared with the baseline period, the debris flow damage risk for culverts and bridges would increase and the areas that inundate the road and pavement would expand. Our findings provide valuable insights for the development of mitigation strategies to adapt road systems to climate change, especially in alpine regions with highly active GDFs.

The formation of the Wulipo landslide and the resulting debris flow in Dujiangyan City, China

The Wulipo landslide, triggered by heavy rainfall on July 10, 2013, transformed into debris flow,resulted in the destruction of 12 houses, 44 deaths, and 117 missing. Our systematic investigation has led to the following results and to a new understanding about the formation and evolution process of this hazard. The fundamental factors of the formation of the landslide are a high-steep free surface at the front of the slide mass and the sandstone-mudstone mixed stratum structure of the slope. The inducing factor of the landslide is hydrostatic and hydrodynamic pressure change caused by heavy continuous rainfall. The geological mechanical model of the landslide can be summarized as "instability-translational slide-tension fracture-collapse" and the formation mechanism as "translational landslide induced by heavy rainfall". The total volume of the landslide is 124.6×104 m3, and 16.3% of the sliding mass was dropped down from the cliff and transformed into debris flow during the sliding process, which enlarged 46.7% of the original sliding deposit area. The final accumulation area is found to be 9.2×104 m2. The hazard is a typical example of a disaster chain involving landslide and its induced debris flow. The concealment and disaster chain effect is the main reason for the heavy damage. In future risk assessment, it is suggested to enhance the research onpotential landslide identification for weakly intercalated slopes. By considering the influence of the behaviors of landslide-induced debris flow, the disaster area could be determined more reasonably.

On the criteria to create a susceptibility map to debris flow at a regional scale using Flow-R

Studies on susceptibility to debris flows at regional scale(100-1000 km^2) are important for the protection and management of mountain areas. To reach this objective, routing models, mainly based on land topography, can be used to predict susceptible areas rapidly while necessitating few input data. In this research, Flow-R model is implemented to create the susceptibility map for the debris flow of the Vizze Valley(BZ, North-Eastern Italy; 134 km^2). The analysis considers the model application at local scale for three sub-catchments and then it explores the model upscaling at the regional scale by verifying two methods to generate the source areas of debris-flow initiation. Using data of an extreme event occurred in the Vizze Valley(4 August 2012) and historical information, the modeling verification highlights that the propagation parameters are relatively simple to set in order to obtain correct runout distances. A double DTM filtering-using a threshold for the upslope contributing area(0.1 km^2) and a threshold for the terrain-slope angle(15°)-provides a satisfactory prediction of source areas and susceptibility map within the geological conditions of the Vizze Valley.

泥石流危险范围Laharz修正模型及其应用

泥石流危险区研究涉及触发条件、物源与地形等多种因素,需要开发快速、有效的方法进行危险范围分析。本文基于Laharz基本原理,以泥石流样本为数据基础拟合得到修正模型,并以重庆市巫溪县杨家湾沟为例,采用修正的Laharz ArcGIS工具包,在不同降雨重现期条件下对泥石流堆积范围进行模拟计算。结果表明:1)采用修正参数使Laharz模型统计量参数的和方差(SSE)和均方根误差(RMSE)减小,确定系数(R^(2))增大,拟合优度得到明显提高;2)基于数字高程模型,结合现场调查推算的物源体积,在ArcGIS平台采用Laharz工具包可快速模拟不同降雨重现期(10、20、50、100 a)条件下的泥石流堆积范围,并且模拟泥石流堆积宽度与现场调查堆积范围接近,大部分重合;3)采用Laharz修正模型与传统的FLO-2D软件模拟进行对比,其中最远冲出距离、最大堆积宽度和堆积面积在两种方法下模拟结果的差值比率分别在10.00%、15.00%和20.00%量级,采用两种方法模拟结果与实地勘查结果也相近,表明Laharz修正模型具可靠性。

考虑冻融侵蚀型物源的不同流域单元泥石流易发性评价——以藏东贡觉地区为例

在全球气候变暖背景下,高原山区潜在泥石流暴发的概率将增大,定量评估泥石流易发性是区域减灾防灾的先行手段。基于现场调查和研究结果,首次计算了藏东贡觉地区的冻融侵蚀强度(DR)。选取物源条件和地形条件,采用加权信息量法评价了藏东贡觉地区泥石流的易发性,以四组流量阈值划分的不同流域单元作为评价单元对比分析了易发性评价结果。结果显示,四组易发性评价结果差异明显,随着流域单元划分数量的降低(流量阈值增大),研究区中风险区面积逐渐增大,高~极高风险区面积先增大后降低。受试者特征曲线(ROC)验证结果表明,使用G2组(流量阈值5000)划分得到的流域单元模型评估效果更好,AUC值为0.895,高易发区、极高易发区面积占全区约34.1%。八个评价因子中,冻融侵蚀强度(DR)、地形特征指数(TCI)和平面曲率(Pl_cv)是泥石流易发程度贡献率较大的三个因子。考虑冻融侵蚀型物源和地形水文因子建立的泥石流易发性评价模型,为冻融侵蚀现象明显的藏东地区泥石流易发性评价提供了新的方法和思路,对指导地方防灾减灾具有重要实践意义。

沟谷型泥石流特征参数的等代面积递归精细求解

为解决“沟谷型”泥石流在不规则断面处特征参数的精细求解问题,笔者以曼宁公式为基础,建立“等代”面积递归逼近的数学模型,实现了最深泥位、流体速度、威胁范围的求解计算,其结果比较符合实际。利用该模型在豫西某泥石流受威胁对象段任取10个断面进行研究分析:①计算出10年一遇、20年一遇、50年一遇、100年一遇等降水概率工况下最深泥位、流速、行洪断面大小,研究其随雨强大小的演变规律。②定量分析了各断面泄洪能力强弱。③结合泥石流强度判定标准对所选区域进行危险度分区,划分了极高危险区、高危险区、中危险区、低危险区。该模型不仅可以为预测泥石流各项指标提供基本参数,而且可为灾害防治提供科学依据。研究成果对泥石流的精细化防治方面具有重要支撑作用。

基于非线性回归的暴雨泥石流堵河预测

堵河型泥石流灾害在汶川震区较为常见,其链式灾害效应严重威胁到了区域内人民的生命财产安全。故准确预测泥石流堵河程度,并采取相应的防治措施是至关重要的。以四川省绵竹市清平镇于2010年8月13日暴发的群发性泥石流为研究对象,通过分析因子权重,利用非线性回归建立了泥石流堵河程度的预测模型,并与已有模型进行了对比,论证了所建立模型的可用性,其后对不同降雨频率下的泥石流堵河程度进行预测。结果表明:流量比和流域面积是最佳的建模因子,所建立的模型绝对平均误差为0.049;与不同模型对比发现本文模型对于清平镇泥石流堵河预测具有很好的适用性;在极端降雨下,部分沟道堵河预测程度为1,会造成绵远河堵断。研究成果可为该地区泥石流灾害的防治和治理提供参考。

合水地区长6_(3)深水重力流沉积特征研究

合水地区是鄂尔多斯盆地近年来原油勘探的重点区块,在系统分析沉积构造、岩石学特征、结构粒度特征等沉积相识别标志的基础上,结合区域沉积背景,开展了合水地区长6_(3)重力流沉积类型及展布特征研究。结果表明,合水地区长6_(3)油层亚组为湖泊-重力流沉积体系,发育半深湖-深湖沉积亚相,可进一步划分为浊流沉积、砂质碎屑流、滑塌沉积三种重力流沉积类型;其中砂质碎屑流及浊流为主要控砂微相,主要分布在研究区的中部、南部区域,为区内有利储集相带。

北天山干线泥石流发育特征与防治措施研究

北天山干线穿越多种地貌类型、地质构造复杂、灾害种类及数量均偏多,制约着新疆地区公路、铁路等基础建设的发展。以北天山G577线精河至伊宁县公路沿线泥石流为研究对象,对泥石流的发育特征、防治措施、选线及通过形式进行系统研究,提出北天山干线泥石流避让方式及防治措施。

新疆阜康抽水蓄能电站库区泥石流危险性评价与防治措施

根据新疆阜康抽蓄库区泥石流形成条件及发育特征,通过现场调查、遥感解译、现场试验等方法确定了影响较大的4条沟谷泥石流静力、动力特征值,选取泥石流多因子综合模型评价了泥石流的危险性,并从两方面分析了泥石流对工程安全的影响,提出了“稳坡、拦挡、停淤”的综合防治体系。结果表明:西岔沟泥石流危险度最大,值为0.43,属于中度危险;库区泥石流沟的影响主要表现为淤泥作用和冲击作用;“稳、拦、停”的立体综合防治体系具有良好的防治效果,值得推广采用。

Origin and depositional model of deep-water lacustrine sandstone deposits in the 7th and 6th members of the Yanchang Formation(Late Triassic),Binchang area,Ordos Basin,China

Sandstones attributed to different lacustrine sediment gravity flows are present in the 7th and 6th members of the Yanchang Formation in the Ordos Basin, China. These differences in their origins led to different sandstone distributions which control the scale and connectivity of oil and gas reservoirs. Numerous cores and outcrops were analysed to understand the origins of these sandstones. The main origin of these sandstones was analysed by statistical methods, and well logging data were used to study their vertical and horizontal distributions. Results show that the sandstones in the study area accu- mulated via sandy debris flows, turbidity currents and slumping, and sandy debris flows predominate. The sand- stone associated with a single event is characteristically small in scale and exhibits poor lateral continuity. How- ever, as a result of multiple events that stacked gravity flow-related sandstones atop one another, sandstones are extensive overall, as illustrated in the cross section and isopach maps. Finally, a depositional model was developed in which sandy debris flows predominated and various other types of small-scale gravity flows occurred frequently, resulting in extensive deposition of sand bodies across a large area.

Socio-scientific quantification of the comprehensive benefits of debris flow mitigation measures for villages in western Sichuan, China

Debris flow hazards seriously threaten thesafety and sustainable development of mountainousareas. Numerous debris flow mitigation measures havebeen implemented worldwide;however, acomprehensive assessment of the specific disasterreduction effects of these measures and their economic,social and ecological benefits is yet to be performed.The western region of Sichuan Province frequentlysuffers from geohazards such as debris flow, and thegovernment has adopted many mitigation measures.This study assessed the benefits of debris flowmitigation measures and identified the key influencingfactors via a field-based study conducted in 81 villagesin western Sichuan province, China. A framework forthe evaluation of the benefits of rural debris flowmitigation measures was constructed andquantitatively evaluated using a survey. Snowballsampling was performed to recruit 81 village leadersand 468 farmers. The results showed that managementand engineering measures were the main methodsused to mitigate debris flow;ecological measures wereauxiliary. The average satisfaction scores of farmers forthese three types of measures were 4.07, 3.90, and 3.56,respectively (as measured on a five-point Likert scale).In contrast, in terms of the benefits of these mitigationmeasures, only a small proportion of villages (11.11%)obtained a high level of comprehensive benefits fromthe debris flow mitigation measures, while the majority(88.89%) received medium to low-level benefits. Toimprove this situation, we further studied and foundthat the main factors that restricted villages fromachieving high-level comprehensive benefits were theunpredictable nature of debris flows, labour forceoutflow and remoteness. Effective control measures, agood economic environment and strong governmentassistance were reported as crucial factors forimproving these comprehensive benefits. This studyprovides socio-scientific references for decisionmakingon rural debris flow mitigation measures while keeping villages at the centre of economic development.

Are Antarctic Specially Protected Areas safe from plastic pollution? a survey of plastic litter at Byers Peninsula, Livingston Island, Antarctica

A number of studies have reported in the last decades the presence of plastics in the Southern Ocean,which are liable to reach the coast and accumulate on the Antarctic Continent.Despite this,there are few data on the amount of plastic pollution on Antarctic beaches below 60°S.Here we provide valuable information about the presence of plastic debris in Byers Peninsula,Livingston Island,South Shetland Islands,an Antarctic Specially Protected Area(ASPA)and a hotspot for biodiversity.A total of 129 locations with between 1 and 5 items were recorded among the 3 survey sites on Byers Peninsula.Most of the observed items are likely to derive from fishing and local sources such as tourism and research activities.We discuss the potential impacts of their presence on local fauna and some of the consequences on the Antarctic ecosystem.From this survey of plastic accumulation in an ASPA,we propose the implementation of mitigation strategies,such as systematic monitoring of the abundance and distribution of plastic waste,in order to identify trends in marine debris and control the levels of plastic pollution in the Maritime Antarctic region.

大中型水电工程库区漂浮物协同治理的多元主体博弈研究

针对漂浮物流动特性所导致的流域治理责任转移和管理失衡问题,从中央政府的调控职能出发,构建了基于演化博弈理论的“政企”协同治理模型;并以三峡库区为例进行仿真分析,揭示了监管机制和关键因素对库区漂浮物协同治理成效的影响规律。结果表明:中央政府综合实施奖惩政策和调节机制,可使系统快速达成协同治理均衡,但其监管力度呈现边际效用递减趋势;相较于政企双方的干流合作,地方政府开展支流源头治理,会对工程业主的策略选择产生更为明显的正向效用;当工程业主提高积极治理补贴并降低消极治理补贴时,地方政府在两种策略下的利益差越大,会越倾向于选择积极治理策略,因此差异化的补贴机制才是“政企”协同治理的驱动力。

西部山区泥石流灾害下建筑物破坏特征与破坏等级划分

近年来我国西部山区泥石流灾害频发,严重威胁当地居民的生命财产安全,其中,建筑物的破坏是造成各类损失的重要原因。正确认识泥石流的致灾机理和泥石流灾害下建筑的破坏特征不仅是正确评价泥石流灾害风险的基础,也是科学构建泥石流下房屋建筑易损性模型的依据。基于文献查阅、新闻资料和现场调研,首先对西部山区泥石流灾害主要特点进行了归纳阐述,其次梳理了近年来发生泥石流灾害中建筑物的破坏特征,最后结合泥石流的动力学特性和建筑结构情况剖析了建筑结构的受损机理。基于建筑物的空间分布与泥石流强度的时空耦合变化特征,对泥石流强度表征方式给出方向性建议;基于建筑的受损机理,参考地震作用下建筑的破坏等级划分标准,初步提出了泥石流下建筑物破坏等级划分方式,旨在为防灾减灾工作提供一定参考。

北京山区泥石流的单沟预报

为给北京山区单沟泥石流灾害预警预报提供理论依据,基于近十几年北京山区单沟泥石流文献资料,从泥石流灾害形成机理出发,结合目前降雨站点数据,分析诱发泥石流的地形、地质和降雨等相关因素,采用适用于北京山区泥石流预报模型P=RT^(0.2)/G^(0.5),得出适用于北京山区单沟泥石流蓝、黄、橙、红Ⅳ级预警模型和相应临界值。研究得出的北京山区泥石流单沟Ⅳ级预警模型能很好地预报短期灾害发生,在龙潭沟等流域的验证中,可以较好地根据降雨的变化情况得出泥石流沟道不同时间段的泥石流易发程度,该模型为该区泥石流易发等级的快速识别提供了科学有效的方法。