Evaluation of the submarine debris-flow hazard risks to planned subsea pipeline systems: a case study in the Qiongdongnan Basin, South China Sea

The ever-increasing deepwater oil and gas development in the Qiongdongnan Basin,South China Sea has initiated the need to evaluate submarine debris-flow hazard risks to seafloor infrastructures.This paper presents a case study on evaluating the debris-flow hazard risks to the planned pipeline systems in this region.We used a numerical model to perform simulations to support this quantitative evaluation.First,one relict failure interpreted across the development site was simulated.The back-analysis modeling was used to validate the applicability of the rheological parameters.Then,this model was applied to forecast the runout behaviors of future debris flows originating from the unstable upslope regions considered to be the most critical to the pipeline systems surrounding the Manifolds A and B.The model results showed that the potential debris-flow hazard risks rely on the location of structures and the selection of rheological parameters.For the Manifold B and connected pipeline systems,because of their remote distances away from unstable canyon flanks,the potential debris flows impose few risks.However,the pipeline systems around the Manifold A are exposed to significant hazard risks from future debris flows with selected rheological parameters.These results are beneficial for the design of a more resilient pipeline route in consideration of future debris-flow hazard risks.

Effect of safety valve types on the gas venting behavior and thermal runaway hazard severity of large-format prismatic lithium iron phosphate batteries

The safety valve is an important component to ensure the safe operation of lithium-ion batteries(LIBs).However,the effect of safety valve type on the thermal runaway(TR)and gas venting behavior of LIBs,as well as the TR hazard severity of LIBs,are not known.In this paper,the TR and gas venting behavior of three 100 A h lithium iron phosphate(LFP)batteries with different safety valves are investigated under overheating.Compared to previous studies,the main contribution of this work is in studying and evaluating the effect of gas venting behavior and TR hazard severity of LFP batteries with three safety valve types.Two significant results are obtained:(Ⅰ)the safety valve type dominates over gas venting pressure of battery during safety venting,the maximum gas venting pressure of LFP batteries with a round safety valve is 3320 Pa,which is one order of magnitude higher than other batteries with oval or cavity safety valve;(Ⅱ)the LFP battery with oval safety valve has the lowest TR hazard as shown by the TR hazard assessment model based on gray-fuzzy analytic hierarchy process.This study reveals the effect of safety valve type on TR and gas venting,providing a clear direction for the safety valve design.

Automated machine learning for rainfall-induced landslide hazard mapping in Luhe County of Guangdong Province,China

Landslide hazard mapping is essential for regional landslide hazard management.The main objective of this study is to construct a rainfall-induced landslide hazard map of Luhe County,China based on an automated machine learning framework(AutoGluon).A total of 2241 landslides were identified from satellite images before and after the rainfall event,and 10 impact factors including elevation,slope,aspect,normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI),topographic wetness index(TWI),lithology,land cover,distance to roads,distance to rivers,and rainfall were selected as indicators.The WeightedEnsemble model,which is an ensemble of 13 basic machine learning models weighted together,was used to output the landslide hazard assessment results.The results indicate that landslides mainly occurred in the central part of the study area,especially in Hetian and Shanghu.Totally 102.44 s were spent to train all the models,and the ensemble model WeightedEnsemble has an Area Under the Curve(AUC)value of92.36%in the test set.In addition,14.95%of the study area was determined to be at very high hazard,with a landslide density of 12.02 per square kilometer.This study serves as a significant reference for the prevention and mitigation of geological hazards and land use planning in Luhe County.

Quantifying the impact of earthquakes and geological factors on spatial heterogeneity of debris-flow prone areas:A case study in the Hengduan Mountains

Understanding the spatial heterogeneity of debris-flow-prone areas holds significant implications for regional risk management, particularly in seismically active regions with geological faults. Despite the significance of this knowledge, a comprehensive quantification of the influence of regional topographical and geological factors on the spatial heterogeneity of debris-flow-prone areas has been lacking. This study selected the Hengduan Mountains, an earthquake-prone region characterized by diverse surface conditions and complex landforms, as a representative study area. An improved units zoning and objective factors identification methodology was employed in earthquake and fault analysis to assess the impact of seismic activity and geological factors on spatial heterogeneity of debrisflow prone areas. Results showed that the application of GIS technology with hydrodynamic intensity and geographical units analysis can effectively analyze debris-flow prone areas. Meanwhile, earthquake and fault zones obviously increase the density of debrisflow prone catchments and make them unevenly distributed. The number of debris-flow prone areas shows a nonlinear variation with the gradual increase of geomorphic factor value. Specifically, the area with 1000 m-2500 m elevation difference, 25°-30° average slope, and 0.13-0.15 land use index is the most favorable conditions for debris-flow occurrence;The average annual rainfall from 600 to 1150 mm and landslides gradient from 16° to 35° are the main causal factors to trigger debris flow. Our study sheds light on the quantification of spatial heterogeneity in debris flow-prone areas in earthquake-prone regions, which can offer crucial support for post-debris flow risk management strategies.

Enhancing landslide hazards survey and management to reduce the loss of human lives and properties

Landslides are pervasive geohazards that pose a serious threat to human lives,property,and crucial engineering constructions.Annually,landslides lead to tens of thousands of fatalities(see the paper of"List of typical catastrophic landslides from March 2004 to February 2024"in this issue,doi:10.31035/cg2024079)and cause economic damages amounting to billions of dollars around the world,as well as disrupting crucial infrastructures such as railways,highways。

Modelling of debris-flow susceptibility and propagation: a case study from Northwest Himalaya

The geological and geographical position of the Northwest Himalayas makes it a vulnerable area for mass movements particularly landslides and debris flows. Mass movements have had a substantial impact on the study area which is extending along Karakorum Highway(KKH) from Besham to Chilas. Intense seismicity, deep gorges, steep terrain and extreme climatic events trigger multiple mountain hazards along the KKH, among which debris flow is recognized as the most destructive geohazard. This study aims to prepare a field-based debris flow inventory map at a regional scale along a 200 km stretch from Besham to Chilas. A total of 117 debris flows were identified in the field, and subsequently, a point-based debris-flow inventory and catchment delineation were performed through Arc GIS analysis. Regional scale debris flow susceptibility and propagation maps were prepared using Weighted Overlay Method(WOM) and Flow-R technique sequentially. Predisposing factors include slope, slope aspect, elevation, Topographic Roughness Index(TRI), Topographic Wetness Index(TWI), stream buffer, distance to faults, lithology rainfall, curvature, and collapsed material layer. The dataset was randomly divided into training data(75%) and validation data(25%). Results were validated through the Receiver Operator Characteristics(ROC) curve. Results show that Area Under the Curve(AUC) using WOM model is 79.2%. Flow-R propagation of debris flow shows that the 13.15%, 22.94%, and 63.91% areas are very high, high, and low susceptible to debris flow respectively. The propagation predicated by Flow-R validates the naturally occurring debris flow propagation as observed in the field surveys. The output of this research will provide valuable input to the decision makers for the site selection, designing of the prevention system, and for the protection of current infrastructure.

Landslide hazard susceptibility evaluation based on SBAS-InSAR technology and SSA-BP neural network algorithm:A case study of Baihetan Reservoir Area

Landslide hazard susceptibility evaluation takes on critical significance in early warning and disaster prevention and reduction.In order to solve the problems of poor effectiveness of landslide data and complex calculation of weights for multiple evaluation factors in the existing landslide susceptibility evaluation models,in this study,a method of landslide hazard susceptibility evaluation is proposed by combining SBAS-InSAR(Small Baseline Subsets-Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar)and SSA-BP(Sparrow Search Algorithm-Back Propagation)neural network algorithm.The SBAS-InSAR technology is adopted to identify potential landslide hazards in the study area,update the cataloging data of landslide hazards,and 11 evaluation factors are chosen for constructing the SSA-BP model for training and validation.Baihetan Reservoir area is selected as a case study for validation.As indicated by the results,the application of SBAS-InSAR technology,combined with both ascending and descending orbit data,effectively addresses the incomplete identification of landslide hazards caused by geometric distortion of single orbit SAR data(e.g.,shadow,overlay,and perspective contraction)in deep canyon areas,thereby enabling the acquisition of up-to-date landslide hazard data.Moreover,in comparison to the conventional BP(Back Propagation)algorithm,the accuracy of the model constructed by the SSA-BP algorithm exhibits a significant increase,with mean squared error and mean absolute error reduced by 0.0142 and 0.0607,respectively.Additionally,during the process of susceptibility evaluation,the SSA-BP model effectively circumvents the issue of considerable manual interventions in calculating the weight of evaluation factors.The area under the curve of this model reaches 0.909,surpassing BP(0.835),random forest(0.792),and the information value method(0.699).The risk of landslide occurrence in the Baihetan Reservoir area is positively correlated with slope,surface temperature,and deformation rate,while it is negatively correlated with fault distance and normalized difference vegetation index.Geological lithology exerts minimal influence on the occurrence of landslides,with the risk being low in forest land and high in grassland.The method proposed in this study provides a useful reference for disaster prevention and mitigation departments to perform landslide hazard susceptibility evaluations in deep canyon areas under complex geological conditions.

Coupling effect on the thermal hazard assessment of hazardous chemical materials via calorimetric technologies and simulation approaches

The coupling effect of heat absorption and release exists in the thermal decomposition of a few chemical materials.However,the impact of the above coupling on thermal hazard assessment is not considered in the literature studies.In this work,nitroguanidine(NQ)and 1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine(RDX)are selected as representative materials to explore the influence of the coupling effect on the thermal hazard assessment of chemical materials.The linear heating experiments of NQ and RDX are carried out by a microcalorimeter and synchronous thermal analyser.The thermal decomposition curves are decoupled by advanced thermokinetics software.The thermal decomposition and kinetic parameters before and after decoupling are calculated.The results of TG experiment show that both NQ and RDX began to lose mass during the endothermic stage.The endothermic melting and exothermic decomposition of NQ and RDX are coupled within this stage.The coupling effect has different degrees of influence on its initial decomposition temperature and safety parameters.Compared with the parameters in the coupling state,the initial decomposition temperature and adiabatic induction period after decoupling decrease.The self-accelerating decomposition temperature increases,and internal thermal runaway time decreases.In the thermal hazard assessment of chemical materials with coupling effects,the calculated parameters after decoupling should be taken as an important safety index。

An extended social force model on unidirectional flow considering psychological and behavioral impacts of hazard source

An accurate assessment of the evacuation efficiency in case of disasters is of vital importance to the safety design of buildings and street blocks.Hazard sources not only physically but psychologically affect the pedestrians,which may further alter their behavioral patterns.This effect is especially significant in narrow spaces,such as corridors and alleys.This study aims to integrate a non-spreading hazard source into the social force model following the results from a previous experiment and simulation,and to simulate unidirectional pedestrian flows over various crowd densities and clarity–intensity properties of the hazard source.The integration include a virtual repulsion force from the hazard source and a decay on the social force term.The simulations reveal(i)that the hazard source creates virtual bottlenecks that suppress the flow,(ii)that the inter-pedestrian push forms a stabilisation phase on the flow-density curve within medium-to-high densities,and(iii)that the pedestrians are prone to a less orderly and stable pattern of movement in low clarity–intensity scenarios,possibly with lateral collisions passing the hazard source.

Analysis of debris flow control effect and hazard assessment in Xinqiao Gully,Wenchuan M_(s)8.0 earthquake area based on numerical simulation

Xinqiao Gully is located in the area of the 2008 Wenchuan M_(s)8.0 earthquake in Sichuan province,China.Based on the investigation of the 2023"6-26"Xinqiao Gully debris flow event,this study assessed the effectiveness of the debris flow control project and evaluated the debris flow hazards.Through field investigation and numerical simulation methods,the indicators of flow intensity reduction rate and storage capacity fullness were proposed to quantify the effectiveness of the engineering measures in the debris flow event.The simulation results show that the debris flow control project reduced the flow intensity by41.05%to 64.61%.The storage capacity of the dam decreases gradually from upstream to the mouth of the gully,thus effectively intercepting and controlling the debris flow.By evaluating the debris flow of different recurrence intervals,further measures are recommended for managing debris flow events.

Assessment of Radiological Hazards of Sedimentary, Igneous and Sediments Natural Rocks

Gamma-ray spectroscopy based on a 100% efficiency hyper-pure germanium detector was used to evaluate the activity concentrations of 226Ra, 232Th, and 40K natural radionuclides in sedimentary, conglomerate, igneous and sedi-ments rock samples collected from four different locations in Eastern desert in Egypt. The obtained activity concentrations are used to evaluate the radi-ological hazards indices, absorbed dose rate, annual effective dose equivalent in air, radium equivalent, external and internal hazard index, radiation level index, annual gonadal dose equivalent, excess lifetime cancer risk and expo-sure rate. The results show that 1) the absorbed dose rate depends on the rock type, 2) the annual effective dose equivalent in air in 71% of sample below 20 mSvy-1 (permissible limit for workers), 3) the conglomerate rocks show low radioactivity level, 4) sedimentary rocks are rich in radium while igneous rocks are rich in thorium and the sediments rocks are rich in both radium and thorium.

Investigation of Maxima Assumptions in Modelling Tropical Cyclone- Induced Hazards in the South China Sea

The present study aims to examine the suitability of two commonly used assumptions that simplify modelling metoceanconditions for designing offshore wind turbines in the South China Sea (SCS). The first assumption assumes thatjoint N-year extreme wind and wave events can be independently estimated and subsequently combined. The secondone assumes peak wind and waves can be modelled as occurring simultaneously during a tropical cyclone (TC) event.To better understand the potential TC activity, a set of 10000 years synthetic TC events are generated. The wind fieldmodel and the Mike 21 spectral wave model are employed to model the TC-induced hazards. Subsequently, theeffect of the assumptions is evaluated by analyzing the peak structural response of both monopile and semisubmersibleoffshore wind turbines during TC events. The results demonstrate that the examined assumptions are generally accurate.By assessing the implications of these assumptions, valuable insights are obtained, which can inform andimprove the modelling of TC-induced hazards in the SCS region.

Integrated hazard assessment of rockfall incidents in the Cap Aokas Cliff Region

Rock fall accidents in mountainous cliff areas have significant consequences for human life and transportation.This study aimed to evaluate the rockfall hazard in the Cap Aokas cliff region located along the northeast coast of Algeria by identifying the key factors contributing to rockfall occurrence.We employed a combination of kinematic analysis,Matterocking method,and 3D trajectory simulations to determine zones that are susceptible to rockfall mobilization.By using a probabilistic and structural approach in conjunction with photogrammetry,we identified the controlling factors.The kinematic analysis revealed the presence of five discontinuity families,which indicated both plane and wedge failure modes.The 3D trajectory simulations demonstrated that the falling blocks followed the stream direction.We then validated the susceptibility maps generated from the analysis using aerial photos and historical rockfall events.The findings of this study enhance our understanding of rockfall phenomena and provide valuable insights for the development of effective strategies to mitigate rockfall hazards.

Identification and hazard analysis of landslides triggered by earthquakes and rainfall

This study aims to utilize the Small Baseline Subset Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar(SBAS-In SAR)technique and Google Earth optical remote sensing images to analyze the area within 20 km around the epicenter of a M 3.9, earthquake that occurred in Tanchang County, Gansu Province, on December 28, 2020. The objective is to identify potential earthquake-induced landslides, assess their scale, and determine their impact range. The study results reveal the successful identification of two potential landslides in the 20 km radius around the epicenter. Through time-series deformation analysis, it was observed that these potential landslides were significantly influenced by both the earthquake and rainfall. Further estimation of these potential landslides indicates maximum depths of 7.4 m and 14.1 m for the failure surfaces, with volumes of 9.02 × 10~4m~3and 25.5 ×10~4m~3, respectively. Finally, based on the simulation analysis of Massflow software, the maximum thickness of soil accumulation in the final accumulation area after sliding of the potential landslide in Shangyaai is 12 m, the area of the final accumulation area is 1.75 × 10~4m~2, and the farthest movement distance is 1124 m. The maximum thickness of soil accumulation in the final accumulation area after sliding of the potential landslide in Wangshancun is 8 m, the area of the final accumulation area is 7.89 × 10~4m~2, and the farthest movement distance is 742 m.

Research on intelligent search-and-secure technology in accelerator hazardous areas based on machine vision

Prompt radiation emitted during accelerator operation poses a significant health risk,necessitating a thorough search and securing of hazardous areas prior to initiation.Currently,manual sweep methods are employed.However,the limitations of manual sweeps have become increasingly evident with the implementation of large-scale accelerators.By leveraging advancements in machine vision technology,the automatic identification of stranded personnel in controlled areas through camera imagery presents a viable solution for efficient search and security.Given the criticality of personal safety for stranded individuals,search and security processes must be sufficiently reliable.To ensure comprehensive coverage,180°camera groups were strategically positioned on both sides of the accelerator tunnel to eliminate blind spots within the monitoring range.The YOLOV8 network model was modified to enable the detection of small targets,such as hands and feet,as well as larger targets formed by individuals near the cameras.Furthermore,the system incorporates a pedestrian recognition model that detects human body parts,and an information fusion strategy is used to integrate the detected head,hands,and feet with the identified pedestrians as a cohesive unit.This strategy enhanced the capability of the model to identify pedestrians obstructed by equipment,resulting in a notable improvement in the recall rate.Specifically,recall rates of 0.915 and 0.82were obtained for Datasets 1 and 2,respectively.Although there was a slight decrease in accuracy,it aligned with the intended purpose of the search-and-secure software design.Experimental tests conducted within an accelerator tunnel demonstrated the effectiveness of this approach in achieving reliable recognition outcomes.

Application of oblique photogrammetry technique in geological hazard identification and decision management

With the continuous development of the oblique photography technique, it has been used more and more widely in the field of geological disasters. It can quickly obtain the three-dimensional(3D) real scene model of dangerous mountainous areas under the premise of ensuring the safety of personnel while restoring the real geographic information as much as possible. However, geological disaster areas are often accompanied by many adverse factors such as cliffs and dense vegetation. Based on this, the paper introduced the flight line design of oblique photogrammetry, analyzed the multi-platform data fusion processing, studied the multi-period data dynamic evaluation technology and proposed the application methods of data acquisition, early warning, disaster assessment and decision management suitable for geological disaster identification through the analysis of actual cases, which will help geologists to plan and control geological work more scientifically and rationally, improve work efficiency and reduce the potential personnel safety hazards in the process of geological survey, to offer technical support to the application of oblique photogrammetry in geological disaster identification and decision making and provide the scientific basis for personal and property safety protection and later-stage geological disaster management in disaster areas.

Deformation,structure and potential hazard of a landslide based on InSAR in Banbar county,Xizang(Tibet)

The Tibetan Plateau is characterized by complex geological conditions and a relatively fragile ecological environment.In recent years,there has been continuous development and increased human activity in the Tibetan Plateau region,leading to a rising risk of landslides.The landslide in Banbar County,Xizang(Tibet),have been perturbed by ongoing disturbances from human engineering activities,making it susceptible to instability and displaying distinct features.In this study,small baseline subset synthetic aperture radar interferometry(SBAS-InSAR)technology is used to obtain the Line of Sight(LOS)deformation velocity field in the study area,and then the slope-orientation deformation field of the landslide is obtained according to the spatial geometric relationship between the satellite’s LOS direction and the landslide.Subsequently,the landslide thickness is inverted by applying the mass conservation criterion.The results show that the movement area of the landslide is about 6.57×10^(4)m^(2),and the landslide volume is about 1.45×10^(6)m^(3).The maximum estimated thickness and average thickness of the landslide are 39 m and 22 m,respectively.The thickness estimation results align with the findings from on-site investigation,indicating the applicability of this method to large-scale earth slides.The deformation rate of the landslide exhibits a notable correlation with temperature variations,with rainfall playing a supportive role in the deformation process and displaying a certain lag.Human activities exert the most substantial influence on the spatial heterogeneity of landslide deformation,leading to the direct impact of several prominent deformation areas due to human interventions.Simultaneously,utilizing the long short-term memory(LSTM)model to predict landslide displacement,and the forecast results demonstrate the effectiveness of the LSTM model in predicting landslides that are in a continuous development and movement phase.The landslide is still active,and based on the spatial heterogeneity of landslide deformation,new recommendations have been proposed for the future management of the landslide in order to mitigate potential hazards associated with landslide instability.

Hazardous Attitude Factors Influence Risk Perception in General Aviation Pilots

This manuscript presents a research proposal to investigate how hazardous attitudes among general aviation pilots influence pilot performance in aviation accidents. General aviation pilots train to maintain safe flying conditions, but accidents still occur, and human factors figure prominently among the causes of aviation accidents. The levels of hazardous attitudes among pilots may influence the likelihood of engaging in risky flight behaviors that can lead to accidents. This quantitative study aims to determine whether dangerous attitudes impact risk perception in general aviation pilots. The study will focus on two specific hazardous attitudes, “Anti-Authority” and Macho” behaviors. Among the hazardous attitudes identified by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the two attitudes often stand out in accident investigations and pilot narratives. While all hazardous attitudes have inherent dangers, these two attitudes tend to be more frequently cited in accident reports and investigations. Despite rigorous training in safe flying conditions, general aviation accidents still transpire due to human factors. This research hypothesizes that the five attitudes from the hazardous attitude model, particularly Anti-Authority and Macho, significantly shape pilots’ risk perception. The insights from this study would benefit stakeholders, like the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association (AOPA), Air Safety Institute, and aviation training programs, in creating training modules tailored to reduce such attitudes.

Enhancing Hazardous Chemical Management in Chinese University Laboratories:Strategies for Safety and Efficiency

This paper examines the management of hazardous chemicals in Chinese university laboratories,identifying key challenges and proposing improvements.It reviews current practices and safety measures,highlighting deficiencies such as inadequate safety systems and insufficient awareness among personnel.The study emphasizes the necessity of tailored safety management systems,the integration of digital tracking technologies like Radio Frequency Identification,and enhanced safety training for staff.The proposed recommendations aim to mitigate risks and enhance laboratory safety and efficiency.In conclusion,the paper asserts that a comprehensive approach,encompassing improved management systems,technological advancements,and educational initiatives,is essential for safer chemical handling in academic research environments.