This paper takes the 2004-2016 non-financial listed companies on Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges as research samples,combined with urban and macro-level data about land use right transfer in prefecture-level cit...This paper takes the 2004-2016 non-financial listed companies on Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges as research samples,combined with urban and macro-level data about land use right transfer in prefecture-level cities,and tries to capture the intrinsic link between land finance and leverage of non-financial listed companies.The study finds that the increase in local govermments'reliance on land finance will increase the probability of corporate overleverage.In the case of introducing control variables that may interfere with the cstimation results and using instrumental variables to alleviate the potential endogeneity,the conclusion remains robust.On this basis,this paper further studies the relationship between land finance and corporate solvency and sustainable development capability.It finds that the increase in reliance on land finance will increase the company's short-term solvency risk and future solvency pressure,while reducing the profitability and sustainability of overleveraged companies.This phenomenon is particulatly evident in high-leveraged companies such as real estate companies in regions with lower collateral value,state-owned enterprises,and enterprises in the eastem region.This paper provides a new perspective for further understanding of the high leverage among non-financial enterprises and the prevention and resolution of debt risks in the context of China's supply-side structural reform.展开更多
In this paper,the concepts of probability of default,loss given default and expected loss in the internal ratings-based approach are introduced into the measurement of local government debt risk.Based on issuing inter...In this paper,the concepts of probability of default,loss given default and expected loss in the internal ratings-based approach are introduced into the measurement of local government debt risk.Based on issuing interest rate and credit spreads of provincial government bonds,the default probability models of general debt and special debt are constructed and estimated,and the general and special debt risk of 333 prefectural governments in China from 2014 to 2017 are estimated respectively,and their regional distribution and changes are analyzed.The conclusions are as follows:Both general and special debt risk are different among regions.In terms of vertical changes in 2014-2017,debt risk has increased on the whole,but this increase has been driven more by the increase in the size of the debt,with no significant change in the probability of default,and the debt risk is concentrated in a small number of prefectural governments.The general debt risk accounts for about two-thirds of the total debt risk,the special debt risk accounts for about one-third,and this proportion structure is basically unchanged in 2014-2017.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations for governance and control of local debt risk.展开更多
基金National Social Science Fund Project" The Impact of Land Finance on the Real Economy and the Reconstruction of Corresponding Incentive System from the Perspective of Financial Instruments"(17BJL037).
文摘This paper takes the 2004-2016 non-financial listed companies on Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges as research samples,combined with urban and macro-level data about land use right transfer in prefecture-level cities,and tries to capture the intrinsic link between land finance and leverage of non-financial listed companies.The study finds that the increase in local govermments'reliance on land finance will increase the probability of corporate overleverage.In the case of introducing control variables that may interfere with the cstimation results and using instrumental variables to alleviate the potential endogeneity,the conclusion remains robust.On this basis,this paper further studies the relationship between land finance and corporate solvency and sustainable development capability.It finds that the increase in reliance on land finance will increase the company's short-term solvency risk and future solvency pressure,while reducing the profitability and sustainability of overleveraged companies.This phenomenon is particulatly evident in high-leveraged companies such as real estate companies in regions with lower collateral value,state-owned enterprises,and enterprises in the eastem region.This paper provides a new perspective for further understanding of the high leverage among non-financial enterprises and the prevention and resolution of debt risks in the context of China's supply-side structural reform.
基金National Social Science Fund of China:“The Balance Coordination Mechanism of Local Government Debt Risk Prevention and Steady Growth under the Classified Limit Management”(17BJY169).
文摘In this paper,the concepts of probability of default,loss given default and expected loss in the internal ratings-based approach are introduced into the measurement of local government debt risk.Based on issuing interest rate and credit spreads of provincial government bonds,the default probability models of general debt and special debt are constructed and estimated,and the general and special debt risk of 333 prefectural governments in China from 2014 to 2017 are estimated respectively,and their regional distribution and changes are analyzed.The conclusions are as follows:Both general and special debt risk are different among regions.In terms of vertical changes in 2014-2017,debt risk has increased on the whole,but this increase has been driven more by the increase in the size of the debt,with no significant change in the probability of default,and the debt risk is concentrated in a small number of prefectural governments.The general debt risk accounts for about two-thirds of the total debt risk,the special debt risk accounts for about one-third,and this proportion structure is basically unchanged in 2014-2017.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations for governance and control of local debt risk.
