Decadal Changes in Dry and Wet Heatwaves in Eastern China:Spatial Patterns and Risk Assessment

Under global warming,understanding the long-term variation in different types of heatwaves is vital for China’s preparedness against escalating heat stress.This study investigates dry and wet heatwave shifts in eastern China over recent decades.Spatial trend analysis displays pronounced warming in inland midlatitudes and the Yangtze River Valley,with increased humidity in coastal regions.EOF results indicate intensifying dry heatwaves in northern China,while the Yangtze River Valley sees more frequent dry heatwaves.On the other hand,Indochina and regions north of 25°N also experience intensified wet heatwaves,corresponding to regional humidity increases.Composite analysis is conducted based on different situations:strong,frequent dry or wet heatwaves.Strong dry heatwaves are influenced by anticyclonic circulations over northern China,accompanied by warming SST anomalies around the coastal midlatitudes of the western North Pacific(WNP).Frequent dry heatwaves are related to strong subsidence along with a strengthened subtropical high over the WNP.Strong and frequent wet heatwaves show an intensified Okhotsk high at higher latitudes in the lower troposphere,and a negative circumglobal teleconnection wave train pattern in the upper troposphere.Decaying El Niño SST patterns are observed in two kinds of wet heatwave and frequent dry heatwave years.Risk analysis indicates that El Niño events heighten the likelihood of these heatwaves in regions most at risk.As global warming continues,adapting and implementing mitigation strategies toward extreme heatwaves becomes crucial,especially for the aforementioned regions under significant heat stress.

On the Contrasting Decadal Changes of Diurnal Surface Temperature Range between the Tibetan Plateau and Southeastern China during the 1980s–2000s

The diurnal surface temperature range （DTR） has become significantly smaller over the Tibetan Plateau （TP） but larger in southeastern China, despite the daily mean surface temperature having increased steadily in both areas during recent decades. Based on ERA-Interim reanalysis data covering 1979-2012, this study shows that the weakened DTR over TP is caused by stronger warming of daily minimum surface temperature （Tmin） and a weak cooling of the daily maximum surface temper- ature （Tmax）; meanwhile, the enhanced DTR over southeastern China is mainly associated with a relatively stronger/weaker warming of Tmax/Tmin. A further quantitative analysis of DTR changes through a process-based decomposition method-- the Coupled Surface-Atmosphere Climate Feedback Response Analysis Method （CFRAM）--indicates that changes in radia- tive processes are mainly responsible for the decreased DTR over the TR In particular, the increased low-level cloud cover tends to induce the radiative cooling/warming during daytime/nighttime, and the increased water vapor helps to decrease the DTR through the stronger radiative wanning during nighttime than daytime. Contributions from the changes in all radiative processes （over -2℃） are compensated for by those from the stronger decreased surface sensible heat flux during daytime than during nighttime （approximately 2.5℃）, but are co-contributed by the changes in atmospheric dynamics （approximately -0.4℃） and the stronger increased latent heat flux during daytime （approximately -0.8℃）. In contrast, the increased DTR over southeastern China is mainly contributed by the changes in cloud, water vapor and atmospheric dynamics. The changes in surface heat fluxes have resulted in a decrease in DTR over southeastern China.

An interdecadal change of tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea in the early 1990s

Tropical cyclone （TC） genesis in the South China Sea （SCS） during 1979-2008 underwent a decadal variation around 1993. A total of 55 TCs formed in the SCS from May to September during 1994- 2008, about twice that during 1979-1993 （27）. During the TC peak season （July-September, JAS）, there were 43 TCs fi＇om 1994-2008, but only 17 during 1979-1993. For July in particular, 13 TCs formed from 1994-2008, but there were none during 1979-1993. The change in TC number is associated with changes of key environmental conditions in atmosphere and ocean. Compared to 1979-1993, the subtropical high was significantly weaker and was displaced more eastward during 1994-2008. In the former period, a stronger subtropical high induced downward flow, inhibiting TC formation. In the latter period, vertical wind shear and outgoing longwave radiation all weakened. Mid-level （850-500 hPa） humidity, and relative vorticity were higher. Sea surface temperature and upper layer heat content were also higher in the area. All these factors favor TC genesis during the latter period. The decadal change of TC genesis led to more landfalling TCs in Southern China during the period 1994-2008, which contributed to an abrupt increase in regional rainfall.

Decadal Change in the Influence of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High on Summer Rainfall over the Yangtze River Basin in the Late 1970s

It is well known that on the interannual timescale,the westward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH)results in enhanced rainfall over the Yangtze River basin(YRB)in summer,and vice versa.This study identifies that this correspondence experiences a decadal change in the late 1970s.That is,the WNPSH significantly affects YRB precipitation(YRBP)after the late 1970s(P2)but not before the late 1970s(P1).It is found that enhanced interannual variability of the WNPSH favors its effect on YRB rainfall in P2.On the other hand,after removing the strong WNPSH cases in P2 and making the WNPSH variability equivalent to that in P1,the WNPSH can still significantly affect YRB rainfall,suggesting that the WNPSH variability is not the only factor that affects the WNPSH-YRBP relationship.Further results indicate that the change in basic state of thermal conditions in the tropical WNP provides a favorable background for the enhanced WNPSH-YRBP relationship.In P2,the lower-tropospheric atmosphere in the tropical WNP gets warmer and wetter,and thus the meridional gradient of climatological equivalent potential temperature over the YRB is enhanced.As a result,the WNPSH-related circulation anomalies can more effectively induce YRB rainfall anomalies through affecting the meridional gradient of equivalent potential temperature over the YRB.

DECADAL CHANGES IN WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES ASSOCIATED WITH MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION

This study focuses on the decadal variability of tropical cyclones(TC) over the Western North Pacific(WNP)and how these changes are related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO).It was done with the help of the Real-time Multivariate MJO index from the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology of the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research,TC data from the Joint Typhoon Warming Center best track datasets,and daily and monthly datasets from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis center.The results show that the TC frequency in the WNP exhibited a statistically significant decrease during 1998-2010 compared to during 1979-1997.The decrease in TC frequency in the WNP mainly occurred during MJO active phases(i.e.,phases 4,5,6,and 7).Further investigation of the climate background and the propagation differences of the MJO between 1979-1997 and 1998-2010 was performed.The La Nina-like tropical sea surface temperature cooling caused stronger Walker circulation and thus induced unfavorable atmosphere conditions for WNP TC genesis including a low-level easterly anomaly,a negative relative vorticity anomaly,an increase in sea-level pressure,and stronger vertical wind shear.Moreover,shortening of the MJO cycle,decline in the duration of the active phases in the WNP,and easterly anomaly and shrinkage of the convection area during MJO active phases may also partly explain the decadal variation of TC.

Decadal Changes in Climatological Intraseasonal Fluctuation of Subseasonal Evolution of Summer Precipitation over the Korean Peninsula in the mid-1990s

Decadal changes in the subseasonal evolution and the phase-locked climatological intraseasonal fluctuation of summertime rainfall over the Korean Peninsula before and after the mid-1990s are investigated.The activity and the migration speed of the monsoon rain band over the East Asian region are altered in the recent decade,resulting in the drier conditions in late spring and the earlier onset of Changma.In early August when a climatological monsoon break was clear in the earlier decade,the precipitation has increased dramatically with a meridional coherency.The response to the enhanced convection over the South China Sea and southeastern China provides a favorable condition for more precipitation in early August through the changes in moisture transport and tropical cyclone passage.

Physical Mechanism of the Impacts of the Tropical Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature on the Decadal Change of the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation

In this study,physical mechanism of the impacts of the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature(SST)on decadal change of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation(SNAO)was explored using an atmospheric general circulation model(AGCM)developed at the International Centre for Theoretical Physics(ICTP).The simulation results indicate that the decadal warming of the SST over the tropical Atlantic after the late 1970s could have significantly enhanced the convection over the region.This enhanced convection would have strengthened the local meridional circulation over the Eastern Atlantic-North Africa-Western Europe region,exciting a meridional teleconnection.This teleconnection might have brought the signal of the tropical Atlantic SST to the Extratropics,consequently activating the variability of the eastern part of the SNAO southern center,which led to an eastward shift of the SNAO southern center around the late 1970s.Such physical processes are highly consistent with the previous observations.

Dynamic-statistics combined forecast scheme based on the abrupt decadal change component of summer precipitation in East Asia

Based on the 1983~2011 CMAP data,the precipitation anomaly in East Asia and its nearby sea regions（hereafter called East Asia for short） demonstrates the ＂＋-＋＂ pattern before 1999 and the ＂-＋-＂ pattern afterwards; this decadal change is contained principally in the corresponding EOF3 component.However,the NCC_CGCM forecast results are quite different,which reveal the ＂＋-＋-＂ pattern before 1999 and the ＂-＋-＋＂ pattern afterwards.Meanwhile,the probability of improving NCC_CGCM＇s forecast accuracy based on these key SST areas is discussed,and the dynamic-statistics combined forecast scheme is constructed for increasing the information of decadal change contained in the summer precipitation in East Asia.The independent sample forecast results indicate that this forecasting scheme can effectively modify the NCC_CGCM＇s decadal change information contained in the summer precipitation in East Asia（especially in the area of 30°N–55°N）.The ACC is 0.25 and ACR is 61% for the forecasting result based on the V SST area,and the mean ACC is 0.03 and ACR is 51% for the seven key areas,which are better than NCC_CGCM＇s system error correction results（ACC is -0.01 and ACR is 49%）.Besides,the modified forecast results also provide the information that the precipitation anomaly in East Asia mainly shows the ＂＋-＋＂ pattern before 1999 and the ＂-＋-＂ pattern afterwards.

Dynamic-Analogue Correction of the Decadal Change of East Asian Summer Precipitation in the Late 1990s

This paper systematically evaluates the deviations that appear in the hindcasts of the East Asian summer precipitation（EASP） decadal change in the late 1990 s in two global coupled models（BCC-CGCM and BCC-CSM）.The possible causes for the deviations between the model hindcasts and observations are analyzed.The results show that the hindcasts of EASP by BCC-CGCM and BCC-CSM deviate from observations,with the anomaly correlation coefficient（ACC） being-0.01 and-0.09 for the two models,respectively.The SST anomalies in North and West Pacific and the SST index values predicted by the two models also deviate from the observations,indicating that inconsistent SST fields may be the key factor leading to the deviation in the prediction of the EASP decadal shift.Thus,a dynamic-analogue scheme is proposed to correct the precipitation hindcasts by using SSTs,where SST and EASP are highly correlated,to select historical analogue cases.Cross validations show that the average ACC of the temporal-latitude distribution of the EASP between the corrected hindcasts and observations is 0.18 for BCC-CGCM and0.02 for BCC-CSM;both are much higher than the uncorrected hindcasts.Applying the dynamic-analogue correction scheme in both models successfully improves prediction of the EASP decadal change in the late1990 s.

Decadal (2003–2013) changes in liana diversity,abundance and aboveground biomass in four inland tropical dry evergreen forest sites of peninsular India

In 2013, we re-inventoried all lianas （≥1 cm diameter measured at 1.3 m from the rooting point） in four I-ha permanent plots distributed one each in four sites of inland tropical dry evergreen forest on the Coromandel Coast （Pudukottai district） of peninsular India, established in 2003. Among the four sites, Shanmuganathapuram （SP） and Araiyapatti （AP） were much disturbed and the other two sites （Karisakkadu--KR and Maramadakki--MM） were moderately disturbed. We inventoried a total of 3425 lianas representing 37 species of 33 genera and 22 families. Over a decade （2003-2013） liana species richness increased at two sites （MM and SP） and no changes occurred at the other two sites. Liana abundance increased by 210, 211,164 and 162 individuals at sites AP, KR, MM and SP, respectively, and basal area increased （from 1.09 to 1.76 m2 at AP, 0.67 to 0.86 m2 at KR, 1.68 to 2.06 mz at MM, and from 0.44 to 1.06 m2 at SP）. Over a 10-year period, three species （Abrus precatorius, Canavalia virosa, and Cocculus hirsutus） were lost and five species （Gloriosa superba, Ampelocissus tomentosa, Capparis sepiaria, Aganosma cymosa and Tiliacora acuminata） were newly added. Total aboveground biomass increased by 18.5, 0.74, 3.6 and 9.5 Mg ha-1, respectively, at sites AP, KR, MM and SP.

Decadal Change of the Linkage between Sea Ice over the Barents–Kara Seas in November– December and the Stratospheric Polar Vortex in Subsequent January

The linkage between the sea ice concentration(SIC)over the Barents–Kara Seas in November–December(SIC_BKS_ND)and the stratospheric polar vortex(SPV)in subsequent January(SPV_Jan)is investigated.It is found that SIC_BKS_ND is positively(negatively)correlated with SPV_Jan for the period 1979–1995(1996–2009).Further analyses reveal that,during 1979–1995(1996–2009),SIC_BKS_ND is relatively higher(lower),accompanied by smaller(larger)interannual variability with its center shifting northwest(southeast).Meanwhile,the polar front jet waveguide is relatively stronger(weaker).The simultaneous anomalous eastward-propagating Rossby waves excited by anomalously low SIC_BKS_ND are stronger(weaker),which results in the stronger(weaker)negative–positive–negative wave-train structure of geopotential height anomalies over Eurasia,with the location of these anomalous height centers shifting remarkably westward(eastward).Such changes tend to enhance(suppress)vertically propagating tropospheric planetary waves into the lower stratosphere at high-latitude via constructive(destructive)interference of anomalous tropospheric wave-train structure with the climatological planetary waves,subsequently weakening(strengthening)SPV_Jan.However,in conjunction with anomalously high SIC_BKS_ND,the interference of the tropospheric wave-train structure anomalies and their climatologies shows an opposite distribution to that of low SIC_BKS_ND anomalies,which leads to a strong(weak)SPV_Jan anomaly during 1979–1995(1996–2009).

Forced Decadal Changes in Summer Precipitation Characteristics over China:The Roles of Greenhouse Gases and Anthropogenic Aerosols

We investigated the decadal changes in the different types of summer mean precipitation over China across the mid-1990 s based on observational datasets.The spatial variations in the observed decadal changes were estimated by comparing the present day(PD)time period of 1994–2011 with an earlier period of 1964–1981.The summer total precipitation increased in southern China and decreased in northern China from the early period to the PD.The increases of precipitation in southern China were due to increases in the frequency of heavy and moderate rainfall,whereas the decreases over northern China were mainly due to decreases in the frequency of moderate and light rainfall.Based on a set of numerical experiments using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled with a multilevel mixed-layer ocean model,we found that the increase of precipitation frequency forced by greenhouse gases is the main reason of increasing precipitation over southern and northeastern China,while the decrease of frequency caused by anthropogenic aerosol(AA)induces the decreasing precipitation over northern China.The water vapor flux convergence and water vapor flux strengthen in southern China and northeastern China by anthropogenic greenhouse gases.This distribution is also conducive to precipitation in most of southern China and northeastern China.Under the control of weakened southwesterly winds and 850-h Pa divergence,precipitation decreases over northern and southwestern China by AA.

Impacts of the upper-ocean salinity variations on the decadal sea level change in the Southeast Indian Ocean during the Argo era

In the past nearly two decades,the Argo Program has created an unprecedented global observing array with continuous in situ salinity observations,providing opportunities to extend our knowledge on the variability and effects of ocean salinity.In this study,we utilize the Argo data during 2004–2017,together with the satellite observations and a newly released version of ECCO ocean reanalysis,to explore the decadal salinity variability in the Southeast Indian Ocean(SEIO)and its impacts on the regional sea level changes.Both the observations and ECCO reanalysis show that during the Argo era,sea level in the SEIO and the tropical western Pacific experienced a rapid rise in 2005–2013 and a subsequent decline in 2013–2017.Such a decadal phase reversal in sea level could be explained,to a large extent,by the steric sea level variability in the upper 300 m.Argo data further show that,in the SEIO,both the temperature and salinity changes have significant positive contributions to the decadal sea level variations.This is different from much of the Indo-Pacific region,where the halosteric component often has minor or negative contributions to the regional sea level pattern on decadal timescale.The salinity budget analyses based on the ECCO reanalysis indicate that the decadal salinity change in the upper 300 m of SEIO is mainly caused by the horizontal ocean advection.More detailed decomposition reveals that in the SEIO,there exists a strong meridional salinity front between the tropical low-salinity and subtropical high salinity waters.The meridional component of decadal circulation changes will induce strong cross-front salinity exchange and thus the significant regional salinity variations.

Long-term changes in wintertime persistent heavy rainfall over southern China contributed by the Madden-Julian Oscillation

During the boreal winter,abundant persistent heavy rainfall(PHR)amount and significant rainfall variability at subseasonal timescale are generally observed over the southern sector of East China,where the large-scale circulation and moisture transport are tightly connected with the equatorial Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO).As the MJO convections occur over the equatorial Indian Ocean(MJO phases 1-4),the low-level moisture convergence is enhanced over southern China(SC,108°-120°E,21°-26°N)with the divergence to the north.Thus,a positive anomaly of PHR amount appears in SC but a negative anomaly of PHR amount is seen in the Yangtze River valley(YR,113°-122°E,28°-30°N).In contrast,the divergence(convergence)of moisture flux anomalies in the SC(YR)associated with the western equatorial Pacific MJO convections(phases 5-8)limits(benefits)the occurrence of PHR in the SC(YR).The wintertime PHR over southern China is found to undergo a long-term change over the past three decades(1979-2011)with a decreasing(an increasing)trend of PHR amount in the SC(YR).The change in PHR amount occurs consistently with the decadal change in MJO activity.In the earlier decade(1979-1994,E1),the active Indian Ocean(western Pacific)MJO events appeared more frequently while they became less frequent in the recent decade(1995-2011,E2).Accordingly,the Indian Ocean(western Pacific)MJO-related moisture convergence(divergence)anomalies in the SC tend to be weakened(enhanced),contributing to the decrease in PHR amount over the SC in the recent decade.

Interdecadal Variations of Winter Temperatures in East China During the Past 100 Years and Related Atmospheric Circulation

The winter temperature changes in East China during the past 100 years are investigated by using the Twentieth Century Version 2(20th-v2)Reanalysis.Four typical warm(P1,1911–30;P4,1991–2010)and cold(P2,1938–57;P3,1961–80)periods are identified for the East China winter temperature index.Comparison of160-station observational data,NCAR sea level pressure(SLP)data,and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis shows that the20th-v2 Reanalysis can successfully depict the major features of the warming from P3 to P4,which is part of the global warming phenomenon.The cooling from P1 to P2is a regional phenomenon under global warming.However,both changes are consistent with the phase change of the Arctic Oscillation(AO),while the second change is also accompanied by the phase change of Antarctic Oscillation(AAO)from negative to positive.Original sources of the interdecadal shifts of the AO and winter temperature in East China require further research.

THE DIRECT EFFECTS OF AEROSOLS AND DECADAL VARIATION OF GLOBAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ON THE EAST ASIAN SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN CAM3.0

Using the CAM3.0 model, we investigated the respective effects of aerosol concentration increasing and decadal variation of global sea surface temperature(SST) around year 1976/77 on the East Asian precipitation in boreal summer. By doubling the concentration of the sulfate aerosol and black carbon aerosol separately and synchronously in East Asia(100-150 °E, 20-50 °N), the climate effects of these aerosols are specifically investigated. The results show that both the decadal SST changing and aerosol concentration increasing could lead to rainfall decreasing in the center of East Asia, but increasing in the regions along southeast coast areas of China. However, the different patterns of rainfall over ocean and lower wind field over Asian continent between aerosol experiments and SST experiments in CAM3.0 indicate the presence of different mechanisms. In the increased aerosol concentration experiments, scattering effect is the main climate effect for both sulfate and black carbon aerosols in the Eastern Asian summer. Especially in the increased sulfate aerosol concentration experiment, the climate scattering effect of aerosol leads to the most significant temperature decreasing, sinking convection anomalies and decreased rainfall in the troposphere over the central part of East Asia. However, in an increased black carbon aerosol concentration experiment, weakened sinking convection anomalies exist at the southerly position. This weakened sinking and its compensating rising convection anomalies in the south lead to the heavy rainfall over southeast coast areas of China. When concentrations of both sulfate and black carbon aerosols increase synchronously, the anomalous rainfall distribution is somewhat like that in the increased black carbon concentration aerosol experiment but with less intensity.

Xigaze: Decade of Change

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A Decade of Complete Change in a Muslim Community

Talking about changes in the Muslim-inhabited Niu Jie Street of Beijing, every member of the community would be all smiles. ＂Everything has changed; the mosque, the streetscape and the people, too,＂ they would say.

Has the East Asian Westerly Jet Experienced a Poleward Displacement in Recent Decades?

Previous studies have suggested a poleward shift of the zonally averaged jet stream due to rapid warming over continents.However,the regional characteristics of the change in the jet stream are not yet understood.Here,we present evidence suggesting that the East Asian westerly jet did not shift poleward in past decades（1980-2004 relative to 1958-1979）,both in winter and summer.Rather,the jet axis has moved southward in summer,but its meridional position is steady in winter.The main change of the jet stream in winter is the enhancement of its intensity.These changes in both summer and winter are consistent with the corresponding changes in the large meridional tropospheric temperature-gradient zone.Based on these results,we suggest that the changes of the jet stream over East Asia are unique and are different from the zonal mean jet stream over the Northern Hemisphere and over the North Atlantic region.

Contribution of South China Sea Tropical Cyclones to an Increase in Southern China Summer Rainfall Around 1993

The increase in southern China summer rainfall around 1993 was accompanied by an increase in tropical cyclones that formed in the South China Sea. This study documents the connection of these two features. Our analysis shows that the contribution of tropical cyclones that formed in the South China Sea to southern China summer rainfall experienced a significant increase around 1993, in particular, along the coast and in the heavy rain category. The number of tropical cyclones that formed in the western North Pacific and entered the South China Sea decreased, and their contribution to summer rainfall was reduced in eastern part of southern China （but statistically insignificant）. The increase in tropical cyclone-induced rainfall contributed up to -30＆ of the total rainfall increase along the coastal regions. The increase of tropical cyclones in the South China Sea appears to be related to an increase in local sea surface temperature.