Based on experience of meteorological service at county-level meteorological station in recent 20 years,status quo of decision-making meteorological service,main influence factors of decision-making meteorological ser...Based on experience of meteorological service at county-level meteorological station in recent 20 years,status quo of decision-making meteorological service,main influence factors of decision-making meteorological service and writing of decision-making meteorological service materials are analyzed,and measures and suggestions of improving decision-making meteorological service level are proposed. The research aims to improve public meteorological service level at grass-roots level,provide scientific decision-making basis for government departments preventing and reducing disaster,and reduce loss of life and property of the country and people caused by meteorological disasters to the maximum extent.展开更多
In order to accurately predict and control the aging process of dams, new information should be collected continuously to renew the quantitative evaluation of dam safety levels. Owing to the complex structural charact...In order to accurately predict and control the aging process of dams, new information should be collected continuously to renew the quantitative evaluation of dam safety levels. Owing to the complex structural characteristics of dams, it is quite difficult to predict the time-varying factors affecting their safety levels. It is not feasible to employ dynamic reliability indices to evaluate the actual safety levels of dams. Based on the relevant regulations for dam safety classification in China, a dynamic probability description of dam safety levels was developed. Using the Bayesian approach and effective information mining, as well as real-time information, this study achieved more rational evaluation and prediction of dam safety levels. With the Bayesian expression of discrete stochastic variables, the a priori probabilities of the dam safety levels determined by experts were combined wfth the likelihood probability of the real-time check information, and the probability information for the evaluation of dam safety levels was renewed. The probability index was then applied to dam rehabilitation decision-making. This method helps reduce the difficulty and uncertainty of the evaluation of dam safety levels and complies with the current safe decision-making regulations for dams in China. It also enhances the application of current risk analysis methods for dam safety levels.展开更多
Social trust network(STN)and minimum cost consensus(MCC)models have been widely used to address consensus issues in multi-attribute group decision-making(MAGDM)problems with limited resources.However,most researchers ...Social trust network(STN)and minimum cost consensus(MCC)models have been widely used to address consensus issues in multi-attribute group decision-making(MAGDM)problems with limited resources.However,most researchers have overlooked the decision maker‘(DMs)’confidence levels(CLs)and adjustment willingness implicit in their evaluations.To address these problems,this paper explores a confidence-based MCC model that considers DMs’adjustment willingness in the STN.The proposed model includes several modifications to the traditional trust propagation and consensus optimization models.Firstly,the improved method for measuring CLs of DMs and the confidence-based normalization approach are defined,respectively.Secondly,the bounded trust propagation operator is proposed,which considers the credibility of mediators to complete the STN.Thirdly,the identification rules based on the consensus index and CL are defined,and the MCC model with personalized cost functions and acceptable adjustment thresholds is built to automatically generate adjustment values for non-consensus DMs.Finally,a model to identify the non-cooperative behavior at the element level is established and the hybrid MCC model with persuasion strategies is provided.Finally,a case study is processed to verify the applicability of the proposed model,and comparison and sensitivity analysis are conducted to highlight its benefits.展开更多
文摘Based on experience of meteorological service at county-level meteorological station in recent 20 years,status quo of decision-making meteorological service,main influence factors of decision-making meteorological service and writing of decision-making meteorological service materials are analyzed,and measures and suggestions of improving decision-making meteorological service level are proposed. The research aims to improve public meteorological service level at grass-roots level,provide scientific decision-making basis for government departments preventing and reducing disaster,and reduce loss of life and property of the country and people caused by meteorological disasters to the maximum extent.
基金supported by the National Science and Technology Support Program of China (Program for the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, Grant No. 2006BAC14B03 and 2006BAC05B03)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 50679043)
文摘In order to accurately predict and control the aging process of dams, new information should be collected continuously to renew the quantitative evaluation of dam safety levels. Owing to the complex structural characteristics of dams, it is quite difficult to predict the time-varying factors affecting their safety levels. It is not feasible to employ dynamic reliability indices to evaluate the actual safety levels of dams. Based on the relevant regulations for dam safety classification in China, a dynamic probability description of dam safety levels was developed. Using the Bayesian approach and effective information mining, as well as real-time information, this study achieved more rational evaluation and prediction of dam safety levels. With the Bayesian expression of discrete stochastic variables, the a priori probabilities of the dam safety levels determined by experts were combined wfth the likelihood probability of the real-time check information, and the probability information for the evaluation of dam safety levels was renewed. The probability index was then applied to dam rehabilitation decision-making. This method helps reduce the difficulty and uncertainty of the evaluation of dam safety levels and complies with the current safe decision-making regulations for dams in China. It also enhances the application of current risk analysis methods for dam safety levels.
基金This work has been supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC),under grants Nos.72101168,72071135.
文摘Social trust network(STN)and minimum cost consensus(MCC)models have been widely used to address consensus issues in multi-attribute group decision-making(MAGDM)problems with limited resources.However,most researchers have overlooked the decision maker‘(DMs)’confidence levels(CLs)and adjustment willingness implicit in their evaluations.To address these problems,this paper explores a confidence-based MCC model that considers DMs’adjustment willingness in the STN.The proposed model includes several modifications to the traditional trust propagation and consensus optimization models.Firstly,the improved method for measuring CLs of DMs and the confidence-based normalization approach are defined,respectively.Secondly,the bounded trust propagation operator is proposed,which considers the credibility of mediators to complete the STN.Thirdly,the identification rules based on the consensus index and CL are defined,and the MCC model with personalized cost functions and acceptable adjustment thresholds is built to automatically generate adjustment values for non-consensus DMs.Finally,a model to identify the non-cooperative behavior at the element level is established and the hybrid MCC model with persuasion strategies is provided.Finally,a case study is processed to verify the applicability of the proposed model,and comparison and sensitivity analysis are conducted to highlight its benefits.
