A Blind Spot in the Reframing of a Universe of Possibles: Towards a Suitable Model for Decision-Making Theory and A.I.

Bayesian inference model is an optimal processing of incomplete information that, more than other models, better captures the way in which any decision-maker learns and updates his degree of rational beliefs about possible states of nature, in order to make a better judgment while taking new evidence into account. Such a scientific model proposed for the general theory of decision-making, like all others in general, whether in statistics, economics, operations research, A.I., data science or applied mathematics, regardless of whether they are time-dependent, have in common a theoretical basis that is axiomatized by relying on related concepts of a universe of possibles, especially the so-called universe (or the world), the state of nature (or the state of the world), when formulated explicitly. The issue of where to stand as an observer or a decision-maker to reframe such a universe of possibles together with a partition structure of knowledge (i.e. semantic formalisms), including a copy of itself as it was initially while generalizing it, is not addressed. Memory being the substratum, whether human or artificial, wherein everything stands, to date, even the theoretical possibility of such an operation of self-inclusion is prohibited by pure mathematics. We make this blind spot come to light through a counter-example (namely Archimedes’ Eureka experiment) and explore novel theoretical foundations, fitting better with a quantum form than with fuzzy modeling, to deal with more than a reference universe of possibles. This could open up a new path of investigation for the general theory of decision-making, as well as for Artificial Intelligence, often considered as the science of the imitation of human abilities, while being also the science of knowledge representation and the science of concept formation and reasoning.

Applying the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) in Information Technology System to Evaluate the Adoption of Decision Support System

With the beginning of the information systems’ spreading, people started thinking about using them for making business decisions. Computer technology solutions, such as the Decision Support System, make the decision-making process less complex and simpler for problem-solving. In order to make a high-quality business decision, managers need to have a great deal of appropriate information. Nonetheless, this complicates the process of making appropriate decisions. In a situation like that, the possibility of using DSS is quite logical. The aim of this paper is to find out the intended use of DSS for medium and large business organizations in USA by applying the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM). Different models were developed in order to understand and predict the use of information systems, but the information systems community mostly used TAM to ensure this issue. The purpose of the research model is to determine the elements of analysis that contribute to these results. The sample for the research consisted of the target group that was supposed to have completed an online questionnaire about the manager’s use of DSS in medium and large American companies. The information obtained from the questionnaires was analyzed through the SPSS statistical software. The research has indicated that, this is primarily used due to a significant level of Perceived usefulness and For the Perceived ease of use.

A Building Information Modeling-Life Cycle Cost Analysis Integrated Model to Enhance Decisions Related to the Selection of Construction Methods at the Conceptual Design Stage of Buildings

Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) provides a systematic approach to assess the total cost associated with owning, operating, and maintaining assets throughout their entire life. BIM empowers architects and designers to perform real-time evaluations to explore various design options. However, when integrated with LCCA, BIM provides a comprehensive economic perspective that helps stakeholders understand the long-term financial implications of design decisions. This study presents a methodology for developing a model that seamlessly integrates BIM and LCCA during the conceptual design stage of buildings. This integration allows for a comprehensive evaluation and analysis of the design process, ensuring that the development aligns with the principles of low carbon emissions by employing modular construction, 3D concrete printing methods, and different building design alternatives. The model considers the initial construction costs in addition to all the long-term operational, maintenance, and salvage values. It combines various tools and data through different modules, including energy analysis, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), and Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) to execute a comprehensive assessment of the financial implications of a specific design option throughout the lifecycle of building projects. The development of the said model and its implementation involves the creation of a new plug-in for the BIM tool (i.e., Autodesk Revit) to enhance its functionalities and capabilities in forecasting the life-cycle costs of buildings in addition to generating associated cash flows, creating scenarios, and sensitivity analyses in an automatic manner. This model empowers designers to evaluate and justify their initial investments while designing and selecting potential construction methods for buildings, and enabling stakeholders to make informed decisions by assessing different design alternatives based on long-term financial considerations during the early stages of design.

A Study on the Factors Influencing Consumer Purchase Decision Under the Live-Streaming Sales Model

In recent years,with the rapid development and popularization of Internet information technology,many new media platforms have risen rapidly,and major e-commerce companies have begun to explore the mode of livestreaming.Especially during the COVID-19 pandemic,due to the lockdown,live-streaming has become an important means of economic development in many places.Owing to its remarkable characteristics of timeliness,entertainment,and interactivity,it has become the latest and trendiest sales mode of e-commerce channels,reflecting huge economic potential and commercial value.This article analyzes two models and their characteristics of live-streaming sales from a practical perspective.Based on this,it outlines consumer purchasing decisions and the factors that affect consumer purchasing decisions under the live-streaming sales model.Finally,it discusses targeted suggestions for using the live-streaming sales model to expand the consumer market,hoping to promote the healthy and steady development of the live-streaming sales industry.

Application of oblique photogrammetry technique in geological hazard identification and decision management

With the continuous development of the oblique photography technique, it has been used more and more widely in the field of geological disasters. It can quickly obtain the three-dimensional(3D) real scene model of dangerous mountainous areas under the premise of ensuring the safety of personnel while restoring the real geographic information as much as possible. However, geological disaster areas are often accompanied by many adverse factors such as cliffs and dense vegetation. Based on this, the paper introduced the flight line design of oblique photogrammetry, analyzed the multi-platform data fusion processing, studied the multi-period data dynamic evaluation technology and proposed the application methods of data acquisition, early warning, disaster assessment and decision management suitable for geological disaster identification through the analysis of actual cases, which will help geologists to plan and control geological work more scientifically and rationally, improve work efficiency and reduce the potential personnel safety hazards in the process of geological survey, to offer technical support to the application of oblique photogrammetry in geological disaster identification and decision making and provide the scientific basis for personal and property safety protection and later-stage geological disaster management in disaster areas.

Impact Damage Testing Study of Shanxi-Beijing Natural Gas Pipeline Based on Decision Tree Rotary Tiller Operation

The North China Plain and the agricultural region are crossed by the Shanxi-Beijing natural gas pipeline.Resi-dents in the area use rototillers for planting and harvesting;however,the depth of the rototillers into the ground is greater than the depth of the pipeline,posing a significant threat to the safe operation of the pipeline.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the dynamic response of rotary tillers impacting pipelines to ensure the safe opera-tion of pipelines.This article focuses on the Shanxi-Beijing natural gas pipeline,utilizingfinite element simulation software to establish afinite element model for the interaction among the machinery,pipeline,and soil,and ana-lyzing the dynamic response of the pipeline.At the same time,a decision tree model is introduced to classify the damage of pipelines under different working conditions,and the boundary value and importance of each influen-cing factor on pipeline damage are derived.Considering the actual conditions in the hemp yam planting area,targeted management measures have been proposed to ensure the operational safety of the Shanxi-Beijing natural gas pipeline in this region.

An Effective Prediction Method for Supporting Decision Making in Real Estate Area Selection

Real estate has been a dominant industry in many countries. One problem for real estate companies is determining the most valuable area before starting a new project. Previous studies on this issue mainly focused on market needs and economic prospects, ignoring the impact of natural disasters. We observe that natural disasters are important for real estate area selection because they will introduce considerable losses to real estate enterprises. Following this observation, we first develop a self-defined new indicator named Average Loss Ratio to predict the losses caused by natural disasters in an area. Then, we adopt the existing ARIMA model to predict the Average Loss Ratio of an area. After that, we propose to integrate the TOPSIS model and the Grey Prediction Model to rank the recommendation levels for candidate areas, thereby assisting real estate companies in their decision-making process. We conduct experiments on real datasets to validate our proposal, and the results suggest the effectiveness of the proposed method.

A Decision-Making Framework Model of Cutting Fluid Selection for Green Manufacturing and the Case Study

Pursuing the green manufacturing (GM) of products i s very beneficial in the alleviation of environment burdens. In order to reap such benefits, green manufacturing is involved in every aspect of manufacturing proc esses. During the machining process, cutting fluid is one of the main roots of e nvironmental pollution. And how to make an optimal selection for cutting fluid f or GM is an important path to reduce the environmental pollution. The objective factors of decision-making problems in the traditional selection of cutting flu id are usually two: quality and cost. But from the viewpoint of GM, environmenta l impact (E) should be considered together. In this paper, a multi-object d ecision-making model of cutting fluid selection for GM is put forward, in which the objects of Quality (Q), Cost(C) and Environmental impact (E) are considered together. In this model, E means to minimize the environmental impact, Q means to maximize the quality and C means to minimize the cost. Each objective is anal yzed in detail too. A case study on a decision-making problem of cutting fluid selection in a gear hobbing process is analyzed, and the result shows the model is practical.

Ranking environmental projects model based on multicriteria decision-making and the weight sensitivity analysis

With the fast growth of Chinese economic, more and more capital will be invested in environmental projects. How to select the environmental investment projects （alternatives） for obtaining the best environmental quality and economic benefits is an important problem for the decision makers. The purpose of this paper is to develop a decision-making model to rank a finite number of alternatives with several and sometimes conflicting criteria. A model for ranking the projects of municipal sewage treatment plants is proposed by using exports＇ information and the data of the real projects. And, the ranking result is given based on the PROMETHEE method. Furthermore, by means of the concept of the weight stability intervals （WSI）, the sensitivity of the ranking results to the size of criteria values and the change of weights value of criteria are discussed. The result shows that some criteria, such as “proportion of benefit to project cost”, will influence the ranking result of alternatives very strong while others not. The influence are not only from the value of criterion but also from the changing the weight of criterion. So, some criteria such as “proportion of benefit to project cost” are key critera for ranking the projects. Decision makers must be cautious to them.

Shared Decision-Making after Implementation of the Chronic Care Model (CCM)—An Evaluative Approach

Background: In paternalistic models, healthcare providers’ responsibility is to decide what is best for patients. The main concern is that such models fail to respect patient autonomy and do not promote patient responsibility. Aim: To evaluate mental healthcare team members’ perceptions of their own role in encouraging elderly persons to participate in shared decision-making after implementation of the CCM. The CCM is not an explanatory theory, but an evidence-based guideline and synthesis of best available evidence. Methods: Data were collected from two teams that took part in a focus group interview, and the transcript was analysed by means of qualitative thematic analysis. Results: One overall theme emerged—Preventing the violation of human dignity based on three themes, namely, Changing understanding and attitudes, Increasing depressed elderly persons’ autonomy and Clarifying the mental healthcare team coordinator’s role and responsibility. The results of this study reveal that until recently, paternalism has been the dominant decision-making model within healthcare, without any apparent consideration of the patient perspective. Community mental healthcare can be improved by shared decision-making in which team members initiate a dialogue focusing on patient participation to prevent the violation of human dignity. However, in order to determine how best to empower the patient, team members need expert knowledge and intuition.

COLLISION AVOIDANCE DECISION-MAKING MODEL OF MULTI-AGENTS IN VIRTUAL DRIVING ENVIRONMENT WITH ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS

Collision avoidance decision-making models of multiple agents in virtual driving environment are studied. Based on the behavioral characteristics and hierarchical structure of the collision avoidance decision-making in real life driving, delphi approach and mathematical statistics method are introduced to construct pair-wise comparison judgment matrix of collision avoidance decision choices to each collision situation. Analytic hierarchy process （AHP） is adopted to establish the agents＇ collision avoidance decision-making model. To simulate drivers＇ characteristics, driver factors are added to categorize driving modes into impatient mode, normal mode, and the cautious mode. The results show that this model can simulate human＇s thinking process, and the agents in the virtual environment can deal with collision situations and make decisions to avoid collisions without intervention. The model can also reflect diversity and uncertainly of real life driving behaviors, and solves the multi-objective, multi-choice ranking priority problem in multi-vehicle collision scenarios. This collision avoidance model of multi-agents model is feasible and effective, and can provide richer and closer-to-life virtual scene for driving simulator, reflecting real-life traffic environment more truly, this model can also promote the practicality of driving simulator.

A Quantity Model for Controlling and Measuring Software Quality Based on the Expert Decision-Making Algorithm

Researchers have been active in the field of software engineering measurement over more than 30 years. The software quality product is becoming increasingly important in the computerized society. Target setting in software quality function and usability deployment are essential since they are directly related to development of high quality products with high customer satisfaction. Software quality can be measured as the degree to which a particular software program complies with consumer demand regarding function and characteristics. Target setting is usually subjective in practice, which is unscientific. Therefore, this study proposes a quantity model for controlling and measuring software quality via the expert decision-making algorithm-based method for constructing an evaluation method can provide software in relation to users and purchasers, thus enabling administrators or decision makers to identify the most appropriate software quality. Importantly, the proposed model can provide s users and purchasers a reference material, making it highly applicable for academic and government purposes.

The Credit Risk Assessment Model of Internet Supply Chain Finance: Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Model with the Principle of Variable Weight

The characteristics of the financing model are firstly analyzed when the e-commerce enterprises participate in the supply chain finance. Internet supply chain finance models are divided into three categories with the standard of whether the electronic commerce enterprises provide funds for small and medium enterprises instead of banks. And then we further study the financing process and the functions of the e-commerce platform with specific examples. Finally, combined with the characteristics of the supply chain finance model, we set up a small and medium enterprises credit evaluation model based on the principle of variable weight with its dynamic data. At the same time, a multi-time points and multi-indicators decision-making method based on the principle of variable weight is proposed and a specific example is presented. In this paper, the multi-criteria decision-making model with the principle of variable weight has been used two times. At last, a typical case has been analyzed based on this model with a higher accuracy rate of credit risk assessment.

The Credit Risk Assessment Model of Internet Supply Chain Finance: Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Model with the Principle of Variable Weight

The characteristics of the financing model are firstly analyzed when the e-commerce enterprises participate in the supply chain finance. Internet supply chain finance models are divided into three categories with the standard of whether the Electronic commerce enterprises provide funds for small and medium enterprises instead of banks. And then we further study the financing process and the functions of the e-commerce platform with specific examples. Finally, combined with the characteristics of the supply chain finance model, we set up a small and medium enterprises credit evaluation model based on the principle of variable weight with its dynamic data. At the same time, a multi time points and multi indicators decision-making method based on the principle of variable weight is proposed and a specific example is presented. In this paper, the Multi-criteria decision-making model with the principle of variable weight has been used two times. At last, a typical case has been analyzed based on this model with a higher accuracy rate of credit risk assessment.

Decision model and algorithm for traffic rescue resource dispatching on expressway

In order to solve the problems of potential incident rescue on expressway networks, the opportunity cost-based method is used to establish a resource dispatch decision model. The model aims to dispatch the rescue resources from the regional road networks and to obtain the location of the rescue depots and the numbers of service vehicles assigned for the potential incidents. Due to the computational complexity of the decision model, a scene decomposition algorithm is proposed. The algorithm decomposes the dispatch problem from various kinds of resources to a single resource, and determines the original scene of rescue resources based on the rescue requirements and the resource matrix. Finally, a convenient optimal dispatch scheme is obtained by decomposing each original scene and simplifying the objective function. To illustrate the application of the decision model and the algorithm, a case of the expressway network is studied on areas around Nanjing city in China and the results show that the model used and the algorithm proposed are appropriate.

Toward Modelling of Transformational Change Processes in Farm Decision-Making

In the coming decades, agricultural systems will have to adapt to tremendous challenges. Behavioral models have important potential to better understand and steer changes toward sustainability brought about by this context. Relying on a literature review, we distinguish incremental changes (extensions of what is already done) and transformational changes, which involve the reorientation of a considerable amount of farming activities. Transformational changes are particularly important in the context of global change. Existing integrated modelling frameworks based on behavioral theories are suited for incremental changes, but remain limited for transformational changes. Qualitative studies provide important insights on two key aspects of transformational changes, learning and social relations, but they have not been explicitly oriented toward computer modelling yet. Based on this literature and three seminal decision-making approaches, we propose a description of transformational change processes in farm decision-making, as a first step toward an implementation in agent-based models.

Decision-Making Model of Public Service Facility Configuration in Multi-agent Communities and Its Application

The decision.making process of the public service facility configuration in multi.agent community is usually simplistic and static. In order to reflect dynamic changes and interactions of all behavior subjects induding of residents, real estate developers and the government, a decision-making model of public service facility configuration according to the multi-agent theory was made to improve the efficiency of the public service facility configuration in community and the living quality of residents. Taking a community to the cast of Jinhui Port in Fengxian District in Shanghai for example, the model analyzed the decision-makers＇ adaptive behaviors and simulated the decision.making criteria. The results indicate that the decision-making model and criteria can be well of satisfying the purpose of improving validity and rationality of public service facility configuration in large community.

Decision-Making Model for Farmer Choosing Land Use Based upon Dynamic Optimization Theory

Using the dynamic optimization theory, we described a decision-making model for farmer choosing land use when there are several different kinds of uses for land. To obtain an empirical model that could be easily applied, decision rules for farmer with a single static expectation were given.

Application of PPC Model Based on RAGA in Real Estate Investment Decision-Making

According to the size of the projector function to evaluate the merits of the program, Projection Pursuit method is applied to real estate investment decision-making by using the real coding based on Accelerating Genetic Algorithm (RAGA) to optimize the Projection Pursuit Classification (PPC) process and a wide range of indicators value was projected linearly. The results are reasonable and verified with an example. At the same time, the subjective of the target weight can be avoided. It provides decision-makers with comprehensive information on all the indicators of new ideas and new

基于24Model-D-ISM的地铁站火灾疏散影响因素研究

为预防地铁站火灾事故,深入了解地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素间的内在联系与层次结构,基于第6版“2-4”模型(24Model)分析63起地铁站火灾疏散事故,充分考虑各个因素之间的交互作用,提取19个影响地铁站人员疏散的关键因素,建立地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素指标体系;采用算子客观赋权法(C-OWA)改进决策试验与评价实验法(DEMATEL),确定地铁站火灾人员疏散的重要影响因素;在此基础上,采用解释结构模型(ISM)分析各个因素间的层次结构及相互作用路径,构建地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素的多级递阶结构模型。研究结果表明:疏散引导、恐慌从众行为、人员拥挤为地铁站火灾人员疏散的关键影响因素;地铁站火灾人员疏散受表层因素、中间层因素、深层因素共同作用的影响,其中,疏散教育与培训、设施维护与检查、疏散预案等因素是根源影响因素,重视根源影响因素的改善有利于从本质上预防和控制事故的发生。