Risk Decision Analysis of Logistics Purchasing Based on Mathematical Expectation

The mathematical expectation value method is a commonly used method in risk decision-making. This paper studies the problem of how to arrange the purchase plan in order to get the maximum expected profit;considering the applicable principles of mathematical expectation, the decision method for getting the optimal decision scheme is given. Finally, we do simulation and stability analysis on an example and obtain the reasonable result. This result shows that mathematical expectation value method is effective in solving the problem of risk decision.

A Method for Risky Multiple Attribute Decision Making with Four - dimensional Reference Point

A method based on cumulative prospect theory was proposed to solve risky multiple attribute decision making problems with Four -dimensional reference points. Considering the influence of different learning processes and corresponding features on decision-making, a new reference-learning behavior is added, and a risk-based multiple-attribute decision-making method based on four-dimensional reference point cumulative prospect theory is proposed. Firstly, according to the cumulative prospect theory, the prospect value and the decision function value of the four reference points of learning, time, evaluation value and expected value are calculated respectively, and the cumulative prospect value matrix of each program dynamic is formed. Secondly,according to the WAA operalor, Maximize the stage weighting model to obtain the integrated cumulative prospect value. Finally, on the basis of this, the alternatives are sorted according to the size of the total cumulative prospect value, and compared with other methods, the validity and scientific of the proposed method are proved.

Application of decision tree to selection of MTBM for adverse geological conditions

So many potential risks can be identifed for application of trenchless technology especially using microtunneling methods.Unexpected changes in ground conditions,such as encountering boulders,tree roots,ground water and man-made structures such as old foundations are the principal geotechnical risks,which affect the selection of an appropriate microtunnel boring machine.On the other hand,the performance of each microtunneling technique will differ while encountering such conditions.Hence,predicting the potential hazards provides a better safety and risk management plan.In this study,a couple of potentially hazardous situation,which are commonly associated with ground conditions,were identifed and investigated.A decision tree aid methodology was proposed based on geotechnical risk assessment for selection of proper microtunneling technique.Based on the approach the most appropriate microtunneling technique has the minimum risk level either before or after hazards mitigation measures.In order to check the effciency of the approach in practice,selection of microtunnel boring machine for Hamadan sewerage pipeline project was evaluated.Accordingly,an earth pressure balance(EPB)MTBM was selected for the project.

Global Community of Disaster Risk Reduction Scientists and Decision Makers Endorse a Science and Technology Partnership to Support the Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030

At the first gathering of its kind on the role of science in implementing the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030,over 750 scientists,policymakers,business people,and practitioners met in Geneva from January 27–29,2016.The UNISDR Science and Technology Conference on the Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 fea-

Optimal sensor scheduling for hybrid estimation

A sensor scheduling problem was considered for a class of hybrid systems named as the stochastic linear hybrid system （SLHS）. An algorithm was proposed to select one （or a group of） sensor at each time from a set of sensors. Then, a hybrid estimation algorithm was designed to compute the estimates of the continuous and discrete states of the SLHS based on the observations from the selected sensors. As the sensor scheduling algorithm is designed such that the Bayesian decision risk is minimized, the true discrete state can be better identified. Moreover, the continuous state estimation performance of the proposed algorithm is better than that of hybrid estimation algorithms using only predetermined sensors. Finallyo the algorithms are validated through an illustrative target tracking example.

Allocation Planning for R&D with Uncertainty:Model and Procedure

A decision support model with the stochastic objective function measuring the benefit contributions of projects and stochastic resource constraint and its decision making analysis procedure with the case study are presented for selecting R&D projects, in which the uncertainty in project evaluation and selection, the technical or outcome, cost or resource and benefit or payoff interrelationships among projects, and the experience and knowledge of the R&D manager can be considered.