A Study on The Timeliness of Credit Rating on Bond Defaults--Evidence from Chinese Bond Market

With the increase of China’s bond issuance and slowdown of the economic growth,the potential credit risks such as bond default in the bond market are gradually emerging.The frequent occurrence of bond defaults and the problem of false credit ratings make bond investors and market participants more cautious about the credit ratings issued by rating agencies.Based on the default bonds from 2016 to 2019,this paper analyzes the adjustment of rating of defaulted bonds by rating agencies before default.It also compares the impact of both the regulatory events and the entrance of international agencies on timeless of credit ratings on default bonds.At the same time,the divergence of rating timeliness between different rating agencies is compared.The research shows that after the unified supervision of regulators and the punishment of Dagong Global Credit Rating Co.Ltd in 2018,the timeliness of rating agencies'downgrading of defaulted bonds has increased significantly;Compared with other rating agencies,the timeliness of rating agencies owned by international rating agencies are better.

Framework of pricing a revolver loan in the case of dependent defaults

In this paper we analyze the main characteristics of correlative clients and the revolver loan and reduced form models for the correlative clients A and B in real-life. This is done by decomposing the default intensity into specific default intensity and homogenous default intensity. We also use a mathematical formula of the default joint distribution function and the marginal distribution function in the physical measure to deduce the martingale measure. The modeling idea on pricing the revolver loan with client A is presented by applying reduced form model. Through calculating the cost and income fund flows under the martingale measure, the framework of a “break-even” pricing model is established. The conclusion is that the interest rate of a revolver loan for client A on the “break-even” point is not related to the maximum authorized amount and the drawdown amount at that time under some assumptions, but only rests with credit rating and homogenous default intensity of client A and B as well as loan term of client A.

Predictive Modeling and Expectable Loss Analysis for Borrower Defaults of Mortgage Loans

Home mortgage loan lending firms are exposed to many business risks.This paper focuses on the mortgage loan borrower risks and proposes a prospective loss analysis approach in regard to loan repayment defaults of borrowers.For this purpose,a predictive modeling is presented in three stages.In the first stage,occurrence of borrower defaults in a mortgage loans portfolio is modeled through the generalized linear models(GLMs)type regressions for which we specify a logistic distribution for default events.The second stage of modeling develops a survival analysis in order to estimate survival probability and hazard rate functions for individual loans.Ultimately,an expectable loss amount model is presented in the third stage as a function of conditional survival probabilities and corresponding hazard rates at loan levels.Throughout all modeling stages,a large and real data set is used as an empirical analysis case by which detailed interpretations and practical implications of the obtained results are stated.

Electroencephalogram Signal Correlations between Default Mode Network and Attentional Functioning

Attentional issues may affect acquiring new information, task performance, and learning. Cortical network activities change during different functional brain states, including the default mode network (DMN) and attention network. We investigated the neural mechanisms underlying attentional functions and correlations between DMN connectivity and attentional function using the Trail-Making Test (TMT)-A and -B. Electroencephalography recordings were performed by placing 19 scalp electrodes per the 10 - 20 system. The mean power level was calculated for each rest and task condition. Non-parametric Spearman’s rank correlation was used to examine the correlation in power levels between the rest and TMT conditions. The most significant correlations during TMT-A were observed in the high gamma wave, followed by theta and beta waves, indicating that most correlations were in the parietal lobe, followed by the frontal, central, and temporal lobes. The most significant correlations during TMT-B were observed in the beta wave, followed by the high and low gamma waves, indicating that most correlations were in the temporal lobe, followed by the parietal, frontal, and central lobes. Frontoparietal beta and gamma waves in the DMN may represent attentional functions.

Factors Associated with Antiretroviral Therapy Defaulting among Adult Patients Receiving Care at Chikankata Mission Hospital, Chikankata District, Zambia

Background: Defaulting on antiretroviral therapy has been identified as the most important factor contributing to the antiretroviral therapy failure rate. This study aimed to investigate factors associated with defaulting on antiretroviral therapy among adult patients receiving care at Chikankata Mission Hospital antiretroviral therapy clinic. Method: Cross-sectional analytical study on 385 participants selected by a computer generated random numbers technique of simple random sampling from among the patients receiving antiretroviral therapy at Chikankata Mission Hospital. Data collected were processed and analysed using Statistical Package for Social Science version 27. Univariate and backward multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with antiretroviral therapy defaulting. The level of significance was set at 5% with a confidence level of 95%. Results: Over half (58.4%) of the study participants defaulted on antiretroviral therapy. About 65.8% of study participants indicated improved health as the reason they defaulted on antiretroviral therapy. Most participants indicated that it was important to always go for antiretroviral therapy services (Adjusted Odds Ratio 1.95;95% Confidence Interval: [1.14 - 3.33], p = 0.015). Very few participants indicated poor family support for antiretroviral therapy services (Adjusted Odds Ratio 4.08;95% Confidence Interval: [2.02 - 8.23], p Conclusion: Defaulting on antiretroviral therapy continues to be a significant problem and needs to be addressed as a matter of priority. More counselling and awareness-raising programmes are required to improve knowledge and understanding on the importance of attending scheduled antiretroviral therapy clinics and services as well as the consequences of defaulting on antiretroviral therapy.

The Impact of Corporate Governance and Fair Value Accounting on Debt Contracts

This paper investigates the theoretical relationship between corporate governance,fair value accounting,and debt contracts.It primarily examines the individual impacts of corporate governance and fair value accounting on debt contracts,while also exploring the influence of corporate governance on fair value accounting.The study emphasizes the importance of considering the interests and legal status of creditors in the context of debt contracts.The findings indicate that strong corporate governance can reduce the likelihood of debt default and that the company’s restructuring costs in the event of a default determine whether improved corporate governance will increase or decrease debt costs.Additionally,the study reveals that the strength of corporate governance affects the value relevance of fair value accounting.However,the impact of fair value accounting on debt contracts is not inherently positive or negative;for instance,companies may use fair value adjustments with manipulative intent to enhance performance.Ultimately,the research highlights that discussions about corporate governance should not prioritize shareholder interests exclusively but also consider the legitimate position of creditors.

The Macroeconomic Impact of Internet Finance

This paper investigates the macroeconomic impacts of Internet finance,highlighting its advantages and challenges.Internet finance,a fusion of Internet technology with traditional financial practices,introduces innovative models for global asset management,capital financing,payments,investments,and intermediary services.While it enhances the accessibility and efficiency of financial services,it also introduces new risks,such as higher credit default rates.This study explores how Internet finance contributes to financial inclusivity and macroeconomic growth yet poses potential threats to traditional financial stability.The dual aspects of Internet finance are analyzed:its application in existing processes and its capacity to generate novel business models.Furthermore,the paper proposes strategic responses to mitigate the negative impacts of Internet finance,mainly focusing on risk management and regulatory improvements to safeguard economic stability.

Forecasting Chinese Corporate Bond Defaults: Comparative Study of Market- vs. Accounting-Based Models

This paper provides the first empirical study on bond defaults in the Chinese market.It overcomes the deficiencies of existing methods,which suffer from lack of actual default data for back testing.With newly available bond default data,we analyze the roles of market variables against accounting variables under various models.While we find that Merton's market-based structural model and KMV's Distance to Default exhibit languid discriminating power compared with hazard models that have carefully constructed predictors,other market variables carry significant information about bond defaults and could help improve on models with only the accounting variables.This implies that the collective intelligence of the market could somehow mitigate the distortion caused by misreported accounting information.Further,model performance can be significantly improved by adding predicting variables that link an individual financial measure to the broader market performance,such as the relative margin—a business environment proxy introduced in this study.We not only shed light on the default behavior of the Chinese bond market,but also provide a promising approach to improve the variable selection process.

A General Scheme for Formalizing Defaults Using the Predicate ab(I,S)

In common sense reasoning two typical types of defaults are encoun- tered. One is of the form 'All birds can fly except b1, b2,…, and bm(m>1)' , and the other 'All birds can fly, but there exist exceptiona' . The first type of defaults is readily formalized but the other, as some researchers have noticed, is difficult to deal witb. This paper establisbes a geaeral scheme for formalising defaults of the two typea, the key to which is the introduction of a two-argument predicate ab(I,S) to represent exceptional objects.

Monetary Policy and Borrowers'Loan Defaults:Research Based on Data from Ren re ndai

This paper uses Renrendai data to study the relationship between monetaryj policy and the default behavior of borrowers,and analyzes the transmission channels.The research shows that tight monetary policy will lead to a significant increase in a borrower s probability to default,and this effect will continue for several months.There may be two transmission channels:(i)monetary policy changes a debtor s liquidity through credit and balance sheet channels,which directly affects their current repayment behavior;and(ii)monetary policy may affect a borrower s investment,production and profitability,thus changing their long-term solvency.The paper also finds that the repayment behavior of productive borrowers is more susceptible to monetary policy than consumptive borrowers,and that the default behavior of borrowers in coastal provinces is more susceptible to monetary policy than of borrowers in inland provinces.These findings provide new evidence for understanding how monetary policy affects individual behavior and its transmission mechanisms.

Adverse selection,loan access and default behavior in the Chilean consumer debt market

Why do households use different types of loans?Which factors cause borrowers to default?Using a comprehensive survey dataset from Chile,I estimate a partial information model of consumer debt access,lender choice,loan amount and default.The model consists of a first-stage multinomial logit that explains the choice across the five loan types,plus the options of no access to debt due to credit constraints and a no wish for consumer debt.In the second and third stages,the model assumes a log-linear regression of the debt amount and a logit regression of the default behavior,accounting for the loan type selection probability.Identification is obtained using factors measured at different time periods for the default and the loan type choices.I find that households choose different lenders based on income,education and labor risks.Higher income and education decrease the probability of credit constraints,while increasing bank lending and debt amounts.Unemployment risk and household size increase the chances of all the loan types;however,unemployment decreases the debt amount.Age and wage volatility reduce the probability of all loans.Default decreases with income,education and age,whereas it increases with indebtedness,unemployment,household size,health shocks,and paying previous loans.Counterfactual exercises demonstrate that pension reform,higher requirements for borrowers’capacities,and financial literacy programs could substantially reduce default risk.Financial literacy could greatly reduce arrears,households with credit constraints,the number of debtors and the aggregate debt amounts,especially for non-bank lending.Highlights Chilean borrowers present heterogeneous adverse selection across lender types.No Debt Access decreases with income,age,education,but it increases with risk.Default is associated with income,unemployment,indebtedness and demographics.Paying past loans and health needs are associated with indebtedness and default.Financial literacy programs may be a powerful policy to improve the debt market.

The default mode network is affected in the early stage of simian immunodeficiency virus infection:a longitudinal study

Acquired immune deficiency syndrome infection can lead to cognitive dysfunction represented by changes in the default mode network.Most recent studies have been cross-sectional and thus have not revealed dynamic changes in the default mode network following acquired immune deficiency syndrome infection and antiretroviral therapy.Specifically,when brain imaging data at only one time point are analyzed,determining the duration at which the default mode network is the most effective following antiretroviral therapy after the occurrence of acquired immune deficiency syndrome.However,because infection times and other factors are often uncertain,longitudinal studies cannot be conducted directly in the clinic.Therefore,in this study,we performed a longitudinal study on the dynamic changes in the default mode network over time in a rhesus monkey model of simian immunodeficiency virus infection.We found marked changes in default mode network connectivity in 11 pairs of regions of interest at baseline and 10 days and 4 weeks after virus inoculation.Significant interactions between treatment and time were observed in the default mode network connectivity of regions of interest pairs area 31/V6.R and area 8/frontal eye field(FEF).L,area 8/FEF.L and caudal temporal parietal occipital area(TPOC).R,and area 31/V6.R and TPOC.L.ART administered 4 weeks after infection not only interrupted the progress of simian immunodeficiency virus infection but also preserved brain function to a large extent.These findings suggest that the default mode network is affected in the early stage of simian immunodeficiency virus infection and that it may serve as a potential biomarker for early changes in brain function and an objective indicator for making early clinical intervention decisions.

一种DEFAULT密码算法抵抗差分故障攻击新方法

针对DEFAULT轻量级分组密码算法无法抵抗差分故障攻击的问题,利用横向混淆和线性码提出一种抵抗差分故障攻击的方法。该方法在算法实现冗余部分针对算法结构使用横向混淆(或纵向隐藏)的方式实现,并结合[10,4,6]线性码的1 bit纠错和4 bit检错能力对每个S盒进行防护。研究结果表明,该方法不仅提供了对算法半字节的纠错和所有比特位的检测能力,而且仅需要约25.08%的额外软件实现性能消耗。相较于已有的防护方法,该方法在通用性、故障检测效果及实现代价方面均有明显优势。

Quiet Lingering of The U.S.Debt Crisis

On June 3,U.S.President Joe Biden signed a debt ceiling bill,the“Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023,”two days before the nation’s debt default deadline,temporarily averting a calamitous default on its debt.With the bill,the nation’s debt limit is officially suspended through January 1,2025.

No-Arbitrage in Financial Economics: Solution of the Mystery of Implied Volatility and S&P 500 Volatility Index

We have shown that classic works of Modigliani and Miller, Black and Scholes, Merton, Black and Cox, and Leland making the foundation of the modern asset pricing theory, are wrong due to misinterpretation of no arbitrage as the martingale no-arbitrage principle. This error explains appearance of the geometric Brownian model (GBM) for description of the firm value and other long-term assets considering the firm and its assets as self-financing portfolios with symmetric return distributions. It contradicts the empirical observations that returns on firms, stocks, and bonds are skewed. On the other side, the settings of the asset valuation problems, taking into account the default line and business securing expenses, BSEs, generate skewed return distributions for the firm and its securities. The Extended Merton model (EMM), taking into account BSEs and the default line, shows that the no-arbitrage principle should be understood as the non-martingale no arbitrage, when for sufficiently long periods both the predictable part of returns and the mean of the stochastic part of returns occur negative, and the value of the return deficit depends on time and the states of the firm and market. The EMM findings explain the problems with the S&P 500 VIX, the strange behavior of variance and skewness of stock returns before and after the crisis of 1987, etc.

Supply-Side Structural Reform, Digital Economy and Corporate Default Risk

In recent years, a lot of corporate defaults have had an impact on the capital market. How to prevent corporate default risks has become an important topic of concern for the academic community, enterprises and the government. We took China’s A-share listed companies from 2012 to 2018 as a sample, and used the double difference method to analyze the impact of supply-side structural reforms on corporate default risks. We found that supply-side structural reforms have reduced the risk of corporate default, and the inhibitory effect has gradually increased. In the relationship between supply-side structural reforms and corporate default risks, corporate financing capabilities have played an intermediary role. Supply-side structural reforms can improve the company’s endogenous financing capabilities, thereby reducing the risk of corporate default. However, we also found that the mediating effect of a company’s exogenous financing capability is not significant. At the same time, the regression results show that the digital economy can play a regulatory role. It can not only actively regulate the relationship between supply-side structural reforms and corporate default risks, but also mediate the mediating effect of corporate endogenous financing capabilities. The results of this article provide some evidence for the synergy between supply-side structural reforms and the digital economy.

Java事件处理机制中设计模式的分析

设计模式是具有良好扩展性、健壮性及重用性的软件设计方案,是软件技术的重要研究课题。Java是一门跨平台的语言,适用于开发客户机/服务器式的应用程序。由于Java的跨平台性,使它也适合大型的多主机系统软件开发;同时Java也是一种面向对象的语言,在其中体现了许多设计模式的思想。文章介绍了设计模式的概念及Java事件处理机制,并通过对JavaAWT类库的详细分析,从Java的事件处理机制中提取出3种主要的设计模式。

信用类债券的政府信用及违约承担机制研究

建立信用违约承担机制是转变政府一再为信用类债券违约兜底的前提,也是债券信用风险得以合理分散的根本途径。通过对中国信用债市场发展现状、发展原因和国家政策等方面的分析,揭示出信用债市场目前存在的突出问题:信用债以政府信用为主导、信用风险依然集聚在银行体系。针对以上问题提出解决方案,尝试建立以信用违约互换(CDS)为中心、专业评级机构、信息披露制度和信用债券合理定价为支撑的信用违约承担机制。

REPRESENTATION PROPERTIES OF ABSTRACT DEFAULT REASONING FRAMEWORKS

presented The conceptions of abstract default reasoning frameworks （ADRFs） and D-consequence relations are Based on representation properties of D-consequence relations, it proves that any cumulative nonmonotonic consequence relation with the connective-free form can be represented by ADRFs.

On translators paying attention to the culture default

In the relevance-theoretic framework,translation is an act of communication carried out between two cultures through the medium of language,which involves the cognition of three parts;the original writer,the translator,and the target reader.Since it is a culture-specific phenomenon and the cognitive environment of the original writer and the target reader are different,cultural default often results in misreading or incoherent understanding in cross-cultural communication.