The mass-balance characteristics and sensitivities to climate variables of Laohugou Glacier No.12,western Qilian Mountains,China

Due to global warming, glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau(TP) are experiencing widespread shrinkage; however, the mechanisms controlling glacier variations across the TP are still rather unclear, especially on the northeastern TP. In this study, a physically based, distributed surface-energy and mass-balance model was used to simulate glacier mass balance forced by meteorological data. The model was applied to Laohugou No. 12 Glacier, western Qilian Mountains, China, during2010~2012. The simulated albedo and mass balance were validated and calibrated by in situ measurements. The simulated annual glacier-wide mass balances were-385 mm water equivalent(w.e.) in 2010/2011 and-232 mm w.e. in 2011/2012,respectively. The mean equilibrium-line altitude(ELA) was 5,015 m a.s.l., during 2010~2012, which ascended by 215 m compared to that in the 1970 s. The mean accumulation area ratio(AAR) was 39% during the two years. Climatic-sensitivity experiments indicated that the change of glacier mass balance resulting from a 1.5 °C increase in air temperature could be offset by a 30% increase in annual precipitation. The glacier mass balance varied linearly with precipitation, at a rate of130 mm w.e. per 10% change in total precipitation.

Spatial and temporal transferability of Degree-Day Model and Simplified Energy Balance Model:a case study

Glacier mass balance, the difference between accumulation and ablation at the glacier surface, is the direct reflection of the local climate regime. Under global warming, the simulation of glacier mass balance at the regional scale has attracted increasing interests. This study selects Urumqi Glacier No. 1 as the testbed for examining the transferability in space and time of two commonly used glacier mass balance simulation models: i.e., the Degree-Day Model(DDM) and the simplified Energy Balance Model(s EBM). Four experiments were carried out for assessing both models’ temporal and spatial transferability. The results show that the spatial transferability of both the DDM and s EBM is strong, whereas the temporal transferability of the DDM is relatively weak. For all four experiments, the overall simulation effect of the s EBM is better than that of the DDM. At the zone around Equilibrium Line Altitude(ELA), the DDM performed better than the s EBM.Also, the accuracy of parameters, including the lapse rate of air temperature and vertical gradient of precipitation at the glacier surface, is of great significance for improving the spatial transferability of both models.

Evaluation of SWAT Model performance on glaciated and non-glaciated subbasins of Nam Co Lake, Southern Tibetan Plateau, China

This paper presents an assessment of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) on a glaciated(Qugaqie) and a non-glaciated(Niyaqu) subbasin of the Nam Co Lake. The Nam Co Lake is located in the southern Tibetan Plateau, two subbasins having catchment areas of 59 km^2 and 388 km^2, respectively. The scores of examined evaluation indices(i.e., R^2, NSE, and PBIAS) established that the performance of the SWAT model was better on the monthly scale compared to the daily scale. The respective monthly values of R^2, NSE, and PBIAS were 0.94, 0.97, and 0.50 for the calibration period while 0.92, 0.88, and -8.80 for the validation period. Glacier melt contribution in the study domain was simulated by using the SWAT model in conjunction with the Degree Day Melt(DDM) approach. The conjunction of DDM with the SWAT Model ensued improved results during both calibration(R^2=0.96, NSE=0.95, and PBIAS=-13.49) and validation (R^2=0.97, NSE=0.96, and PBIAS=-2.87) periods on the monthly time scale. Average contribution(in percentage) of water balance components to the total streamflow of Niyaqu and Qugaqie subbasins was evaluated. We found that the major portion(99.45%) of the streamflow in the Niyaqu subbasin was generated by snowmelt or rainfall surface runoff(SURF_Q), followed by groundwater(GW_Q, 0.47%), and lateral(LAT_Q, 0.06%) flows. Conversely, in the Qugaqie subbasin, major contributor to the streamflow(79.63%) was glacier melt(GLC_Q), followed by SURF_Q(20.14%), GW_Q(0.13%), and LAT_Q(0.089%). The contribution of GLC_Q was the highest(86.79%) in July and lowest(69.95%) in September. This study concludes that the performance of the SWAT model in glaciated catchment is weak without considering glacier component in modeling; however, it performs reasonably well in non-glaciated catchment. Furthermore, the temperature index approach with elevation bands is viable in those catchments where streamflows are driven by snowmelt. Therefore, it is recommended to use the SWAT Model in conjunction with DDM or energy base model to simulate the glacier melt contribution to the total streamflow. This study might be helpful in quantification and better management of water resources in data scarce glaciated regions.

Novel models for simulating maize growth based on thermal time and photothermal units: Applications under various mulching practices

Maize (Zea mays L.) is one of the three major food crops and an important source of carbohydrates for maintaining food security around the world.Plant height (H),stem diameter (SD),leaf area index (LAI) and dry matter (DM) are important growth parameters that influence maize production.However,the combined effect of temperature and light on maize growth is rarely considered in crop growth models.Ten maize growth models based on the modified logistic growth equation (Mlog) and the Mitscherlich growth equation (Mit) were proposed to simulate the H,SD,LAI and DM of maize under different mulching practices based on experimental data from 2015–2018.Either the accumulative growing degree-days (AGDD),helio thermal units (HTU),photothermal units (PTU) or photoperiod thermal units (PPTU,first proposed here) was used as a single driving factor in the models;or AGDD was combined with either accumulative actual solar hours (ASS),accumulative photoperiod response (APR,first proposed here) or accumulative maximum possible sunshine hours (ADL) as the dual driving factors in the models.The model performances were evaluated using seven statistical indicators and a global performance index.The results showed that the three mulching practices significantly increased the maize growth rates and the maximum values of the growth curves compared with non-mulching.Among the four single factor-driven models,the overall performance of the Mlog_(PTU)Model was the best,followed by the Mlog_(AGDD)Model.The Mlog_(PPTU)Model was better than the Mlog_(AGDD)Model in simulating SD and LAI.Among the 10 models,the overall performance of the Mlog_(AGDD–APR)Model was the best,followed by the Mlog_(AGDD–ASS)Model.Specifically,the Mlog_(AGDD–APR)Model performed the best in simulating H and LAI,while the Mlog_(AGDD–ADL)and Mlog_(AGDD–ASS)models performed the best in simulating SD and DM,respectively.In conclusion,the modified logistic growth equations with AGDD and either APR,ASS or ADL as the dual driving factors outperformed the commonly used modified logistic growth model with AGDD as a single driving factor in simulating maize growth.

Integration of aspect and slope in snowmelt runoff modeling in a mountain watershed

This study assessed the performances of the traditional temperature-index snowmelt runoff model(SRM) and an SRM model with a finer zonation based on aspect and slope(SRM + AS model) in a data-scarce mountain watershed in the Urumqi River Basin,in Northwest China.The proposed SRM + AS model was used to estimate the melt rate with the degree-day factor(DDF) through the division of watershed elevation zones based on aspect and slope.The simulation results of the SRM + AS model were compared with those of the traditional SRM model to identify the improvements of the SRM + AS model's performance with consideration of topographic features of the watershed.The results show that the performance of the SRM + AS model has improved slightly compared to that of the SRM model.The coefficients of determination increased from 0.73,0.69,and 0.79 with the SRM model to 0.76,0.76,and 0.81 with the SRM + AS model during the simulation and validation periods in 2005,2006,and 2007,respectively.The proposed SRM + AS model that considers aspect and slope can improve the accuracy of snowmelt runoff simulation compared to the traditional SRM model in mountain watersheds in arid regions by proper parameterization,careful input data selection,and data preparation.

Multi-model assessment of glacio-hydrological changes in central Karakoram, Pakistan

The multi-model assessment of glacio-hydrological regimes can enhance our understanding of glacier response to climate change.This improved knowledge can uplift our computing abilities to estimate the contributing components of the river discharge.This study examined and compared the hydrological responses in the glacier-dominated Shigar River basin(SRB)under various climatic scenarios using a semi-distributed Modified Positive Degree Day Model(MPDDM)and a distributed Glacio-hydrological Degree-day Model(GDM).Both glacio-hydrological models were calibrated and validated against the observed hydro-meteorological data from 1988–1992 and 1993–1997.Temperature and precipitation data from Shigar and Skardu meteorological stations were used along with field estimated degree-day factor,temperature,and precipitation gradients.The results from both models indicate that the snow and ice melt are vital contributors to sustain river flow in the catchment.However,MPDDM estimated 68%of rain and baseflow contribution to annual river runoff despite low precipitation during the summer monsoon,while GDM estimated 14%rain and baseflow contribution.Likewise,MPDDM calculated 32%,and GDM generated 86%of the annual river runoff from snow and ice melt.MPDDM simulated river discharge with 0.86 and 0.78 NSE for calibration and validation,respectively.Similarly,GDM simulated river discharge with improved accuracy of 0.87 for calibration and 0.84 NSE for the validation period.The snow and ice melt is significant in sustaining river flow in the SRB,and substantial changes in melt characteristics of snow and ice are expected to have severe consequences on seasonal water availability.Based on the sensitivity analysis,both models’outputs are highly sensitive to the variation in temperature.Furthermore,compared to MPDDM,GDM simulated considerable variation in the river discharge in climate scenarios,RCP4.5 and 8.5,mainly due to the higher sensitivity of GDM model outputs to temperature change.The integration of an updated melt module and two reservoir baseflow module in GDM is anticipated to advance the representation of hydrological components,unlike one reservoir baseflow module used separately in MPDDM.The restructured melt and baseflow modules in GDM have fundamentally enriched our perception of glacio-hydrological dynamics in the catchment.

Morphological Characterization and Phenological Modeling of <i>Jatropha platyphylla</i>(Euphorbiaceae) Muell. Arg. Genotypes

Morphological characterization and phenological modeling were carried out on genotypes of Jatropha platyphylla collected from the states of Sinaloa and Durango, Mexico. The morphological characterization evidenced the existence of monoecious plants, finding individuals with male and female flowers in the same inflorescence. Fruit with four seeds was also found. The phenological study was divided into two phases and calculated in thermal requirement (°D): Vegetative [seedtime (0), germination (24), emergence (98), cotyledons (87), second (302) and fourth (524) true leaves, end of vegetative growth (302)] and reproductive [flowering (303), fructification (342), maturation (126), defoliation and senescence (450)]. The thermal constant (2558) was similar in all eight genotypes. The phenological stages and the accumulated degree days were adjusted with a third-degree polynomial (Stage = -0.0041x3 + 0.7446x2 - 8.6808x + 6.2448) (R2 = 0.99%) stage. The development of phenological models facilitates the prediction of the flowering date for the selection of varieties with high oil and protein content.

Glacier area change and its impact on runoff in the Manas River Basin,Northwest China from 2000 to 2020

Understanding the distribution and dynamics of glaciers is of great significance to the management and allocation of regional water resources and socio-economic development in arid regions of Northwest China.In this study,based on 36 Landsat images,we extracted the glacier boundaries in the Manas River Basin,Northwest China from 2000 to 2020 using eCognition combined with band operation,GIS(geographic information system)spatial overlay techniques,and manual visual interpretation.We further analyzed the distribution and variation characteristics of glacier area,and simulated glacial runoff using a distributed degree-day model to explore the regulation of runoff recharge.The results showed that glacier area in the Manas River Basin as a whole showed a downward trend over the past 21 a,with a decrease of 10.86%and an average change rate of–0.54%/a.With the increase in glacier scale,the number of smaller glaciers decreased exponentially,and the number and area of larger glaciers were relatively stable.Glacier area showed a normal distribution trend of increasing first and then decreasing with elevation.About 97.92%of glaciers were distributed at 3700–4800 m,and 48.11%of glaciers were observed on the northern and northeastern slopes.The retreat rate of glaciers was the fastest(68.82%)at elevations below 3800 m.There was a clear rise in elevation at the end of glaciers.Glaciers at different slope directions showed a rapid melting trend from the western slope to the southern slope then to the northern slope.Glacial runoff in the basin showed a fluctuating upward trend in the past 21 a,with an increase rate of 0.03×10^(8) m^(3)/a.The average annual glacial runoff was 4.80×10^(8) m^(3),of which 33.31%was distributed in the ablation season(June–September).The average annual contribution rate of glacial meltwater to river runoff was 35.40%,and glacial runoff accounted for 45.37%of the total runoff during the ablation season.In addition,precipitation and glacial runoff had complementary regulation patterns for river runoff.The findings can provide a scientific basis for water resource management in the Manas River Basin and other similar arid inland river basins.

Research in Agrometeorolgy on Fodder Crops in Central India—An Overview

Livestock rearing is one of the major occupations in India and is making significant contribution to the country GDP. The regional and seasonal variations in the teperature and rainfall distribution have been the major factors influencing the economy of a region. It is a matter of serious concern that out of 11 districts of central India, 9 districts are showing increasing trend in maximum temperature with a rate of 0.01°C to 0.15°C/year. A significant long-term decreasing trend (Slope = -4.26) was found in annual rainfall series at Jhansi. At Jhansi, moderate to severe drought occurs once in five years. But in the last decade, 7 years experienced moderate to disastrous drought in Jhansi region, wherein rainfall deficiency ranged between 40% and 60% from normal value. Of special mention was the year, 2006, which experienced a worst drought ever recorded for this region. Studies related to crop simulation model was carried out for fodder sorghum and its application for agronomic management and assessing the impact of climate change. Crop modeling studies on forage sorghum (C4) and cowpea (C3) showed increased dry matter biomass by 3% in sorghum but more prominent in cowpea by 46% under elevated CO2 from 330 ppm to 770 ppm. The interaction study of enhanced CO2 and temperature showed prominent negative impact on yields of both the crops. Evapotranspiration and crop coefficient (Kc) of several fodder crops i.e. berseem, lucerne, oat, sorghum, teosinte, maize + cowpea, guinea + berseem were worked out. In berseem, the highest Kc (1.81) was found during 2nd cutting followed by 3rd and 4th cuts. Estimates on irrigation scheduling for the guinea grass + berseem showed that the cropping system requires 7 irrigations at an interval ranging from 13 to 30 days to fulfill the 567.6 mm of water per season as net irrigation under mar soil (black) type whose actual water holding capacity (AWHC) is 175 mm. Similarly, if the cropping system is grown under kabar (AHWC = 140 mm) soil, then it requires nine irrigation with a total water requirement of 591.5 mm at an interval ranging from 10 to 24 days. For integrated pest management (IPM) scheme of lucerne, degree day based model was developed to monitor the lucerne weevil population in central region.

Study on mass balance and sensitivity to climate change in summer on the Qiyi Glacier,Qilian Mountains

Based on the glacier mass balance and meteorological data of air temperature and precipitation on the Qiyi Glacier from June 30 to September 5, 2010, we used a degree-day mass balance model to simulate the change of mass balance during this period. Our results indicate that the current value of the mass balance is -856.2 mm w.e. Subjected to the strong influences of air temperature and precipitation, the mass balance process can be divided into three stages： accumulating exiguously ~ melting intensively melting exiguously. The variation trends of the mass balance according to the degree-day mass balance model and the observed values are similar and wholly reflect the spatial distribution characteristics of the glacier mass balance, which increases with the increase of altitude. Our experiment on climate sensitivity of the mass balance showed that mass balance was very sensitive to the change of temperature; air temperature is the key factor which influences mass balance; and a slight increase in precipitation will have a negligible effect on mass balance when the air temperature increases continuously.

Glacier runoff variation and its influence on river runoff during 1961–2006 in the Tarim River Basin, China

Using monthly precipitation and temperature data from national meteorological stations, 90 m resolution DEM and a digital vector map of modern glaciers from the Chinese Glacier Inventory, the glacier mass balance and glacier runoff in the Tarim River Basin (TRB), China, were estimated based on a monthly degree-day model for 1961–2006. The results suggest that the modified monthly degree-day model can simulate the long-term changes in glacier mass balance and glacier runoff, which have been confirmed by short-term observation data and other results in literatures. The characteristics and trends of mass balance and glacier runoff variation were analyzed. It was found that the mean annual glacier mass balance during 1961–2006 was ?139.2 mm per year and the cumulative mass balance over the 46 year period was ?6.4 m in the TRB. The glacier mass balance displayed a clear decreasing trend over the entire TRB during 1961–2006. The average annual glacier runoff in the TRB was 144.16×108 m3 for 1961–2006. The results also show that glacier runoff has increased in the last 46 years, especially since the 1990s with 85.7% of the increased river flow being derived from the increased glacier runoff caused by loss of ice mass. Over the entire TRB, glacier runoff accounts for 41.5% of the total river flow during 1961–2006. The impact of glacier runoff on river flow has increased in the TRB as a result of glacier shrinkage.

Mo marine geochemistry and reconstruction of ancient ocean redox states

Molybdenum(Mo) proxies, including bulk concentration and isotopic composition, have been increasingly used to reconstruct ancient ocean redox states. This study systematically reviews Mo cycles and their accompanying isotopic fractionations in modern ocean as well as their application in paleo-ocean redox reconstruction. Our review indicates that Mo enrichment in sediments mainly records the adsorption of Fe-Mn oxides/hydroxides and chemical bonding of H2 S. Thus, Mo enrichment in anoxic sediments generally reflects the presence of H2 S in the water column or pore waters. In addition to the effect of euxinia, sedimentary Mo enrichment is related to the size of the oceanic Mo reservoir. Given these primary mechanisms for oceanic Mo cycling, Mo abundance data and Mo/TOC ratios acquired from euxinic sediments in geological times show that fluctuations of the oceanic Mo reservoir are well correlated with oxygenation of the atmosphere and oceans and suggest that oxygenation occurred in phases. Mo proxies suggest that Mo isotopes in strongly euxinic sediments reflect the contemporaneous Mo isotopic composition of seawater, but other processes such as iron-manganese(Fe-Mn) adsorption and weak euxinia can result in different fractionations. Diagenesis may complicate Mo enrichment and its isotopic fractionation in sediments. With appropriate constraints on the Mo isotopic composition of seawater and various outputs, a Mo isotope mass-balance model can quantitatively reconstruct global redox conditions over geological history. In summary, Mo proxies can be effectively used to reconstruct oceanic redox conditions on various timescales due to their sensitivity to both local and global marine redox conditions. However, given the complexity of geochemical processes, particularly the effects of diagenesis, further work is required to apply Mo proxies to ancient oceans.

Simulation and construction of the glacier mass balance in the Manas River Basin,Tianshan,China from 2000 to 2016

The glacier mass balance(GMB)is an important link between climate and water resources and has remarkable regulatory functions in river runoff.To simulate changes of the GMB and to analyze the recharge rates of glacier meltwater to runoff in the Manas River Basin(MRB)during 2000-2016,MOD11C3,TRMM 3B43 and other multi-source remote sensing data were used to drive the degree-day model.The results showed that:(1)the accuracy of the remote sensing meteorological data can be corrected effectively by constructing the temperature and precipitation inversion models,and the characteristics of glacial climate can be finely described through downscaling.The average annual temperature was-7.57°C and the annual precipitation was 410.71 mm in the glacier area of the MRB.The zone at an altitude of about 4200 m was a severe climate change zone,and above and below that zone,the temperature drop rates were-0.03°C/100 m and-0.57°C/100 m,respectively,while precipitation gradients were-2.66 mm/100 m and 4.89 mm/100 m,respectively.(2)The overall GMB was negative with a cumulative GMB of up to-9811.19 mm w.e.and the average annual GMB fluctuated between-464.85 and-632.19 mm w.e.Besides,the glacier melted slowly during 2000-2002 and 2008-2010,but rapidly for 2002-2008 and 2010-2016,while the most serious loss of the glacier occurred in 2005-2009.Moreover,the vertical changes of the GMB increased at 244.83 mm w.e./100 m in the ablation zone but only at 18.77 mm w.e./100 m in the accumulation zone.(3)The intraannual runoff strongly responded to the change of the GMB especially in July and August when the loss of the GMB accounted for 75.4%of the annual loss,and when runoff accounted for 55.1%of the annual total.Due to differences in the annual precipitation and snow meltwater outside the glacier,the interannual glacier meltwater recharge rates fluctuated between 19%and 31%.The recharge rate of glacier meltwater to runoff in the MRB was close to that for other basins in the Tianshan Mountains,which may be used as a basis to confirm the reliability of the estimated GMB results.Furthermore,based on the present findings,it is recommended that the research community pursue studies on the GMB in other alpine river basins.