Prediction on Cold Chain Logistics Demand of Urban Residents in Jiangsu Province during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan Period——Based on Estimates of GM(1,1) Model

This paper takes the total yield of products that need refrigerated transport as the impact factors of transport aggregate of cold chain logistics,such as meat,aquatic products,quick-frozen noodle,fruits,vegetables,dairy,and medicine.Through selecting the consumption data of urban residents on transported products via cold chain in Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2000 as sample,this paper establishes grey prediction model GM(1,1) of cold chain logistics demand and uses DPS7.05 software for test,to predict the cold chain logistics demand of urban residents in Jiangsu Province during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period.The results show that in the period 2010-2015,the cold chain logistics demand of urban residents in Jiangsu Province is 1 151.589 1,1 185.136 6,1 219.661 3,1 255.191 8,1 291.757 3,1 329.388 1 t respectively;in the period 2005-2010,the cold chain logistics demand of urban residents in Jiangsu Province increases at annual growth rate of 3.9%;in the period 2011-2015,the growth rate declines to some extent,increasing slowly at rate of 2.9%.

Production Line Capacity Planning Concerning Uncertain Demands for a Class of Manufacturing Systems with Multiple Products

In this paper, we study a class of manufacturing systems which consist of multiple plants and each of the plants has capability of producing multiple distinct products. The production lines of a certain plant may switch between producing different kinds of products in a time-sharing mode. We optimize the capacity configuration of such a system0s production lines with the objective to maximize the overall profit in the capacity planning horizon. Uncertain demand is incorporated in the model to achieve a robust configuration solution. The optimization problem is formulated as a nonlinear polynomial stochastic programming problem, which is difficult to be efficiently solved due to demand uncertainties and large search space. We show the NP-hardness of the problem first, and then apply ordinal optimization (OO) method to search for good enough designs with high probability. At lower level, an mixed integer programming (MIP) solving tool is employed to evaluate the performance of a design under given demand profile. © 2014 Chinese Association of Automation.

Planned Parenthood: Supply Induced Demand for Abortion in the US

The rate and number of induced abortions in the US has declined steadily for nearly three decades. In contrast to this overall reduction, Planned Parenthood Federation of America abortion providers exhibit a persistent increase in both abortions and their market share percentage of total abortion procedures. For the period 1995-2014, estimated annual and cumulative excess abortions are calculated (Planned Parenthood Abortion Inflation Effect—PPAIE) to indicate the number of abortions which would have been averted if the PP utilization experience had been identical to that of Non-PP abortion providers. PP excess abortions grew steadily each year from 21,000 in 1996 to 258,200 in 2014, 28% of total abortions that year. The cumulative number of abortions added by the PPAIE from 1995-2014 was 3,025,560 or 12.5% of the 24,112,600 performed. Planned Parenthood has had a long-term and accelerating inflationary effect on the incidence and prevalence of abortion in the US.

Using structured systems analysis to design an integrated system for transport planning and environmental analysis

This paper applies Yourdon's (1989) structured systems analysis techniques to transport planning, and the environmental analysis of transport plans. It is usual for planners to treat these activities as separate processes or 'systems'. Six serious shortcomings are identified in prevailing approaches to accounting for the environmental impacts of transport plans. The application of systems analysis has elucidated opportunities for overcoming these problems by integrating the two processes. The paper highlights the benefits of using these methods to direct research into, and development of, an integrated transport planning- environmental analysis system. Techniques applied are data flow diagrams, a Venn diagram and an entity-relationship diagram. Significant potential exists for integration within a geographic information system(GIS), although adoption of integrated methods by transport planners is likely to be incremental. Research confirms the usefulness of systems analysis in guiding the development of a GIS application to accommodate integrated transport planning and environmental analysis. Systems analysis also facilitates more careful and effective design of the databases underlying GIS analysis.

省域国土空间生态修复规划体系构建的逻辑与实践——基于“规划—设计—治理”的视角

国土空间生态修复是推进国土空间治理的重要手段,厘清其规划体系的构建逻辑对于国土空间生态修复规划的编制实施和作用发挥至关重要。从需求层次出发,阐明国土空间生态修复规划体系构建的基本逻辑,以浙江省为例,探索建立省域国土空间生态修复规划体系构建的理论。研究表明:(1)国土空间生态修复规划在需求层面上可体现为“功能修复—韧性提升—价值实现”3个层次。(2)围绕着“整体规划—深化设计—系统治理”的逻辑,提出国土空间生态修复规划作为专项规划的体系构建逻辑。(3)基于构建逻辑,将省域国土空间生态修复规划梳理形成“编制—实施—支撑”3个体系。国土空间生态修复规划要从需求层次变化的认识入手,以维护生态安全、提升空间价值为目标,在省域范围内通过纵向传导、横向深化及全流程支撑3个维度构建规划体系,为系统化开展国土空间生态修复工作探索实施路径。

Optimal Planning of Charging Station for Phased Electric Vehicle

Construction of electric vehicle charging station is the premise of the popularity of electric vehicles. In this paper, electric vehicle charging facilities planning is divided into two stages: public demonstration stage and commercial operation stage. In public demonstration stage, This Paper applies maximal covering model into charging station location, and then be solved by the branch and bound method. In commercial operation stage, the charging station’s service areas division is studied based on Voronoi diagram. With the concerning technical restrains, an optimal planning method is presented for newly-increased station positioning and service region division. The method using the most greatly air circuit method and local dynamic characteristics of Voronoi diagram guarantees the reasonable distribution of stations. Then charging station model of optimal load allocation is established by using M/M/c model. In the end, the correctness and validity of the model is verified through simulation of charging station planning.

Modified consecutive modal pushover procedure for seismic investigation of one-way asymmetric-plan tall buildings

The effects of higher modes and torsion have a significant impact on the seismic responses of asymmetric-plan tall buildings. A consecutive modal pushover (CMP) procedure is one of the pushover methods that have been developed to consider these effects. The aim of this paper is to modify the (CMP) analysis procedure to estimate the seismic demands of one-way asymmetric-plan tall buildings with dual systems. An analysis of 10-, 15- and 20-story asymmetric-plan buildings is carried out, and the results from the modified consecutive modal pushover (MCMP) procedure are compared with those obtained from the modal pushover analysis (MPA) procedure and the nonlinear time history analysis (NLTHA). The MCMP estimates of the seismic demands of one-way asymmetric-plan buildings demonstrate a reasonable accuracy, compared to the results obtained from the NLTHA. Furthermore, the accuracy of the MCMP procedure in the prediction of plastic hinge rotations is better than the MPA procedure. The new pushover procedure is also more accurate than the FEMA load distribution and the MPA procedure.

Development Scenario of China Polyolefin Industry in 2009 and Its Prospect During Twelfth Five-year-plan Period

The development situation of the polyolefin industry during the first four years of the Elevemth Five-year-plan was reviewed.Domestic supply and demand of polyolefins at the period of the Twelfth Five-year-plan were analyzed and predicted.It was pointed out that production capacity of polyolefin in China will be increased significantly and market demand will keep a steady growth.Large-scale industrial equipment of polyolefin will be developed to meet the increasing demand.

供需视角下雨洪调节关键区识别及规划策略研究

雨洪调节服务供需测度对识别易涝区域、合理配置自然资源、优化雨洪安全格局具有重要意义。目前的研究多从供给或需求单一角度聚焦中心城区雨洪调节能力,而全域尺度雨洪调节服务供需测度实证研究较少,雨洪调节服务供需空间分布特征和影响供需平衡的关键驱动因子有待探究。以湖北省通城县为例,通过SCS-CN模型量化县域生态空间雨洪调节服务供给能力,利用洪水脆弱性指数评估社会经济对雨洪调节服务的需求水平,进而识别县域雨洪调节服务供需空间分布特征及失衡关键区域;结合斯皮尔曼相关系数分析和冗余分析,探究影响供需失衡的关键因子,并考虑人口密度和建设用地面积对雨洪调节服务供需的影响,从“宏观-中观-微观”3个尺度构建雨洪安全格局。研究结果表明:①县域内雨洪调节服务供需空间存在显著的分异情况,因此需要从整体角度构建和优化雨洪安全格局;②中心建成区是雨洪调节服务供需失衡最严重的区域,需要采取雨洪安全管控和修复措施;③县域内雨洪调节服务供需失衡的关键影响因子是人口密度,与雨洪灾害风险等级呈负相关。研究成果可为识别雨洪调节服务供需失衡区域以及优化国土空间规划体系下多尺度雨洪安全格局提供量化支持和依据。

TransCAD and GIS Technique for Estimating Traffic Demand and Its Application in Gaza City

In the early nineties of the last century, the transportation system in Gaza Strip was born and new infrastructure projects, especially road networks, were constructed. However, the construction lacked efficient application of a transportation planning process. Transportation planning relies on traffic demand forecasting process. The conventional process is impeded by extensive amount of socioeconomic data. One of the most widely-used models which mitigate this problem is the TransCAD Model. This model is rarely used in Gaza Strip for traffic demand forecasting, and most of the practices depend mainly on a constant growth rate of traffic. Therefore, the main objective of this research is to apply this model in Gaza City for traffic estimation. This model estimates the origin-destination matrix based on traffic count. The traffic count was carried out at 36 intersections distributed around Gaza City. The results of traffic flow estimation obtained from TransCAD are assigned to the Gaza maps using the GIS techniques for spatial analysis. It is shown that the most congested area at present is the middle of the city especially at Aljala-Omer Almokhtar intersection. Therefore, improvement scenarios of this area should be carried out. The results of calibration of traffic flow estimation show that the differences between the estimated and the actual flows were less than 10%. In addition, network evaluation results show that the network is expected to be more congested in 2015. This work can be used by transportation planners for testing any network improvement scenarios and for studying their network performance.

面向战区联合作战的空间需求响应任务规划

针对战区联合作战中的空间需求响应问题,描述了面向战区联合作战的空间需求响应任务规划的背景;从空间资源能力、空间需求响应机制、空间需求响应效益和代价等方面,分析了空间需求响应任务规划所需考虑的主要因素;定义并描述了任务规划模型,设计了任务规划计算方法,并结合战区联合作战实际进行了案例仿真与分析,验证了模型和方法的有效性,为战区联合作战中空间需求的有效响应提供了理论和方法支撑。

省域学前教育师资培养的供需趋势与优化策略

高质量的学前教育师资队伍是促进学前教育现代化发展的保障。立足新时代发展需求,基于A省2016-2022年学前教育及学前教育师资的相关数据分析可得出如下结论:在需求层面,学前教育规模显著提高,师资队伍发展总体均衡,但城乡发展仍有差异,学历结构仍需改善,不能很好地适应新时代学前教育事业发展的新需求;在供给层面,初步形成和建立开放多元的学前教育师资培养体系和全面覆盖的学前教育师资培养层次结构,但总体培养层次和生源质量仍偏低,不能满足全省对高素质学前教育专业人才数量的需求。预计未来几年,A省学前教育本科层次师资将不能满足社会需求,而专科层次学前教育师资将会出现供过于求。因此,要以需求定供给,控制培养规模;加强省级统筹,调整培养结构;完善保障机制,加强扶持与引导;把好招生入口,提升生源质量;强化师资培训,促进存量升级,进而改善省域学前教育师资供需失衡状况,促进我国学前教育事业高质量发展。

以需求为导向的阶段护理方案对肝硬化患者的影响

目的探讨以需求为导向的阶段护理方案对肝硬化患者的影响。方法采取便利抽样法,选取2019年2月至2021年12月江苏省淮安市第四人民医院收治的118例肝硬化患者,按随机数字表法将其分为对照组和研究组,每组59例。对照组给予常规护理,研究组给予以需求为导向的阶段护理方案。比较两组护理前后疾病相关知识掌握程度、自我效能和健康行为。结果118例患者中,2例患者自愿放弃本次调查,1例患者中途转入其他科治疗。对照组最终纳入58例,研究组最终纳入57例。护理前,两组慢性肝病问卷(CLDQ)各维度评分比较,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05);护理后,两组CLDQ各维度评分均高于护理前,且研究组高于对照组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。护理前,两组一般自我效能感量表(CDSES)各维度评分比较,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05);护理后,两组CDSES各维度评分均高于护理前,且研究组高于对照组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。护理前,两组健康促进生活方式量表Ⅱ(HPLP-Ⅱ)各维度评分比较,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05);护理后,两组HPLP-Ⅱ各维度评分均高于护理前,且研究组高于对照组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论以需求为导向的阶段护理方案可有效改善肝硬化患者的疾病相关知识掌握程度、自我效能及健康行为。

保障极端高温事件下负荷可靠供应的楼宇综合能源规划

近年来极端高温事件频发,负荷侧用电需求激增,电源侧供应能力不足,有必要开展保障极端高温事件下商业综合体楼宇负荷可靠供应的综合能源规划研究。首先,对极端高温事件影响进行建模,并划分重要负荷可靠供应集合,同时建立电价型需求响应改变负荷曲线,在极端高温事件下,叠加激励型需求响应来进一步降低负荷水平,考虑经济因素与心理因素对其用户响应概率的影响,并对其不确定性进行描述;其次,以楼宇的规划周期内年总规划成本最优为目标,建立决策楼宇各能源设备型号及台数的楼宇极端高温事件下负荷可靠供应规划模型。利用综合范数约束普通场景、布尔变量约束极端高温场景的概率分布的分布鲁棒优化模型应对屋顶分布式光伏、光伏幕墙及负荷的不确定性。最后,通过算例表明,所提模型在保障极端事件下负荷可靠供应方面具有良好的经济性及鲁棒性。研究成果可为楼宇综合能源规划提供一定的参考。

The Impact of Residential and Non-Residential Demand on Location-Allocation Decision-Making: A Case Study of Modelling Suitable Locations for EMS in Leicester and Leicestershire, England UK

The research examines the impact of residential and non-residential demand on facility location planning by comparing results from two location models: travel-to-work (TTW) and Residential model. The TTW model considers short-term changes in the state of the population due to travel-to-work (non-residential demand). By contrast, the Residential model uses a static snap-shot of the population based on official census estimates (residential demand). Comparison of both models was based on a case study of Emergency Medical Services (EMS) location-allocation planning problem in Leicester and Leicestershire, England, UK. Results showed that the using a static residential demand surface to plan EMS locations overestimates actual demand coverage, compared to a non-residential demand surface. Differences in location-allocation results between the models underscore the importance of accounting for temporal changes in the state of the population when planning locations for health service facilities. The findings of the study have implications for siting of EMS, designing, and planning of EMS service catchments and allocation of prospective demand to EMS sites. The study concludes that consideration of temporal changes in the state of the population is important for reliable and efficient location-allocation planning.

中澳两国免疫规划疫苗需求预测和管理比较

疫苗需求量预测是影响疫苗可及性的关键,对疫苗需求量进行合理预测是保证疫苗可持续性的基础;疫苗流通和接种过程的管理也会在一定程度上影响地区免疫规划的实施与效果。该研究通过分析、比较中国和澳大利亚疫苗需求估算方法和相关影响因素,以及两国国家免疫计划管理的异同,为完善我国免疫规划管理提供合理借鉴。

含氢储能的微电网低碳-经济协同优化配置

【目的】传统电储能在规模、持续时间和环境影响等方面存在局限性,而且微电网中新能源消纳能力低,规划时无法兼顾低碳性和经济性。为解决以上问题,基于氢储能基本工作原理,将氢储能代替传统电储能纳入到微电网中,建立了含氢储能的微电网低碳-经济协同双层优化配置模型。【方法】上层规划模型以微电网综合等年值最小为目标,在电-氢联合运行的基础上,引入碳交易机制对微电网中各发电设备进行容量规划,提高了系统的低碳性;下层运行模型以最小化新能源出力与负荷需求之差的绝对值之和为目标,鼓励用户采取以精确追踪新能源出力曲线为目标的多样化需求侧响应行为,并将用户的用能行为调整反馈至上层模型,实现了对负荷曲线的优化。【结果】某工业园区微电网仿真验证表明,所提方法得到的规划方案具有良好的低碳性和经济性,与传统规划方法相比,低碳性和经济性分别提高了53.6%和37.1%。【结论】所建模型在提高新能源消纳能力的基础上进一步提高了系统的经济性,实现了微电网低碳性和经济性的协同优化。

An iterative approach to an integrated land use and transportation planning tool for small urban areas

There has been increasing interests in developing land use models for small urban areas for various planning applications such as air quality conformity analysis. The output of a land use model can serve as a major input to a transportation model; conversely, transportation model output can provide a critical input to a land use model. The connection between the two models can be achieved by an accessibility measure. This paper presents an iterative approach to solving a regression-based land use model and a transportation model with combined trip distribution- assignment. A case study using data from a small urban area is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed modeling framework. Tests show that the procedures can converge, and the modeling framework can be a valuable tool for planners and decision-makers in evaluating land use policies and transportation investment strategies.

共享储能模式下电动汽车充电站双层优化运行策略

在电动汽车持有量快速增长的背景下,电动汽车充电站的建设需求日益强烈。为了提高充电站运行经济性,文中提出接入共享储能的电动汽车充电站优化调度方法。首先,分析分布式储能和共享储能的运行模式,以充电站年投资成本和年运行成本最低为上层目标函数,以典型日运行成本最小为下层目标函数,构建考虑储能不同运行模式的电动汽车充电站双层优化调度模型。其次,对3个具有差异性的电动汽车充电站进行仿真,并将多个场景下的不同储能运行模式进行对比。然后,在此基础上,针对共享储能服务费以及电动汽车放电损耗进行灵敏度分析。最后,算例表明,共享储能的接入对降低电动汽车充电站规划和运行成本具有积极作用,合理的储能服务费定价和电动汽车放电损耗成本能减少充电站运行成本。