Development and validation of a prediction model for early screening of people at high risk for colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer(CRC)is a serious threat worldwide.Although early screening is suggested to be the most effective method to prevent and control CRC,the current situation of early screening for CRC is still not optimistic.In China,the incidence of CRC in the Yangtze River Delta region is increasing dramatically,but few studies have been conducted.Therefore,it is necessary to develop a simple and efficient early screening model for CRC.AIM To develop and validate an early-screening nomogram model to identify individuals at high risk of CRC.METHODS Data of 64448 participants obtained from Ningbo Hospital,China between 2014 and 2017 were retrospectively analyzed.The cohort comprised 64448 individuals,of which,530 were excluded due to missing or incorrect data.Of 63918,7607(11.9%)individuals were considered to be high risk for CRC,and 56311(88.1%)were not.The participants were randomly allocated to a training set(44743)or validation set(19175).The discriminatory ability,predictive accuracy,and clinical utility of the model were evaluated by constructing and analyzing receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves and calibration curves and by decision curve analysis.Finally,the model was validated internally using a bootstrap resampling technique.RESULTS Seven variables,including demographic,lifestyle,and family history information,were examined.Multifactorial logistic regression analysis revealed that age[odds ratio(OR):1.03,95%confidence interval(CI):1.02-1.03,P<0.001],body mass index(BMI)(OR:1.07,95%CI:1.06-1.08,P<0.001),waist circumference(WC)(OR:1.03,95%CI:1.02-1.03 P<0.001),lifestyle(OR:0.45,95%CI:0.42-0.48,P<0.001),and family history(OR:4.28,95%CI:4.04-4.54,P<0.001)were the most significant predictors of high-risk CRC.Healthy lifestyle was a protective factor,whereas family history was the most significant risk factor.The area under the curve was 0.734(95%CI:0.723-0.745)for the final validation set ROC curve and 0.735(95%CI:0.728-0.742)for the training set ROC curve.The calibration curve demonstrated a high correlation between the CRC high-risk population predicted by the nomogram model and the actual CRC high-risk population.CONCLUSION The early-screening nomogram model for CRC prediction in high-risk populations developed in this study based on age,BMI,WC,lifestyle,and family history exhibited high accuracy.

Development of a new cerebral ischemia reperfusion model of Mongolian gerbils and standardized evaluation system

Background:The Mongolian gerbil is an excellent laboratory animal for preparing the cerebral ischemia model due to its inherent deficiency in the circle of Willis.However,the low incidence and unpredictability of symptoms are caused by numerous complex variant types of the circle.Additionally,the lack of an evaluation system for the cer-ebral ischemia/reperfusion(I/R)model of gerbils has shackled the application of this model.Methods:We created a symptom-oriented principle and detailed neurobehavioral scoring criteria.At different time points of reperfusion,we analyzed the alteration in locomotion by rotarod test and grip force score,infarct volume by triphenyltetrazo-lium chloride(TTC)staining,neuron loss using Nissl staining,and histological charac-teristics using hematoxylin-eosin(H&E)straining.Results:With a successful model rate of 56%,32 of the 57 gerbils operated by our method harbored typical features of cerebral I/R injury,and the mortality rate in the male gerbils was significantly higher than that in the female gerbils.The suc-cessfully prepared I/R gerbils demonstrated a significant reduction in motility and grip strength at 1 day after reperfusion;formed obvious infarction;exhibited typi-cal pathological features,such as tissue edema,neuronal atrophy and death,and vacuolated structures;and were partially recovered with the extension of reperfu-sion time.Conclusion:This study developed a new method for the unilateral common carotid artery ligation I/R model of gerbil and established a standardized evaluation system for this model,which could provide a new cerebral I/R model of gerbils with more practical applications.

Development and validation of a new prognostic model for patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure in intensive care unit

BACKGROUND Cirrhotic patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure(ACLF)in the intensive care unit(ICU)have a poor but variable prognoses.Accurate prognosis evaluation can guide the rational management of patients with ACLF.However,existing prognostic scores for ACLF in the ICU environment lack sufficient accuracy.AIM To develop a new prognostic model for patients with ACLF in ICU.METHODS Data from 938 ACLF patients in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care(MIMIC)database were used to develop a new prognostic model(MIMIC ACLF)for ACLF.Discrimination,calibration and clinical utility of MIMIC ACLF were assessed by area under receiver operating characteristic curve(AUROC),calibration curve and decision curve analysis(DCA),respectively.MIMIC ACLF was then externally validated in a multiple-center cohort,the Electronic Intensive Care Collaborative Research Database and a single-center cohort from the Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University in China.RESULTS The MIMIC ACLF score was determined using nine variables:ln(age)×2.2+ln(white blood cell count)×0.22-ln(mean arterial pressure)×2.7+respiratory failure×0.6+renal failure×0.51+cerebral failure×0.31+ln(total bilirubin)×0.44+ln(internationalized normal ratio)×0.59+ln(serum potassium)×0.59.In MIMIC cohort,the AUROC(0.81/0.79)for MIMIC ACLF for 28/90-day ACLF mortality were significantly greater than those of Chronic Liver Failure Consortium ACLF(0.76/0.74),Model for End-stage Liver Disease(MELD;0.73/0.71)and MELD-Na(0.72/0.70)(all P<0.001).The consistency between actual and predicted 28/90-day survival rates of patients according to MIMIC ACLF score was excellent and superior to that of existing scores.The net benefit of MIMIC ACLF was greater than that achieved using existing scores within the 50%threshold probability.The superior predictive accuracy and clinical utility of MIMIC ACLF were validated in the external cohorts.CONCLUSION We developed and validated a new prognostic model with satisfactory accuracy for cirrhotic patients with ACLF hospitalized in the ICU.The model-based risk stratification and online calculator might facilitate the rational management of patients with ACLF.

BMPRⅡ^(+)neural precursor cells isolated and characterized from organotypic neurospheres:an in vitro model of human fetal spinal cord development

Roof plate secretion of bone morphogenetic proteins(BMPs)directs the cellular fate of sensory neurons during spinal cord development,including the formation of the ascending sensory columns,though their biology is not well understood.Type-ⅡBMP receptor(BMPRⅡ),the cognate receptor,is expressed by neural precursor cells during embryogenesis;however,an in vitro method of enriching BMPRⅡ^(+)human neural precursor cells(hNPCs)from the fetal spinal cord is absent.Immunofluorescence was undertaken on intact second-trimester human fetal spinal cord using antibodies to BMPRⅡand leukemia inhibitory factor(LIF).Regions of highest BMPRⅡ^(+)immunofluorescence localized to sensory columns.Parenchymal and meningeal-associated BMPRⅡ^(+)vascular cells were identified in both intact fetal spinal cord and cortex by co-positivity with vascular lineage markers,CD34/CD39.LIF immunostaining identified a population of somas concentrated in dorsal and ventral horn interneurons,mirroring the expression of LIF receptor/CD118.A combination of LIF supplementation and high-density culture maintained culture growth beyond 10 passages,while synergistically increasing the proportion of neurospheres with a stratified,cytoarchitecture.These neurospheres were characterized by BMPRⅡ^(+)/MAP2ab^(+/–)/βⅢ-tubulin^(+)/nestin^(–)/vimentin^(–)/GFAP^(–)/NeuN^(–)surface hNPCs surrounding a heterogeneous core ofβⅢ-tubulin^(+)/nestin^(+)/vimentin^(+)/GFAP^(+)/MAP2ab^(–)/NeuN^(–)multipotent precursors.Dissociated cultures from tripotential neurospheres contained neuronal(βⅢ-tubulin^(+)),astrocytic(GFAP+),and oligodendrocytic(O4+)lineage cells.Fluorescence-activated cell sorting-sorted BMPRⅡ^(+)hNPCs were MAP2ab^(+/–)/βⅢ-tubulin^(+)/GFAP^(–)/O4^(–)in culture.This is the first isolation of BMPRⅡ^(+)hNPCs identified and characterized in human fetal spinal cords.Our data show that LIF combines synergistically with high-density reaggregate cultures to support the organotypic reorganization of neurospheres,characterized by surface BMPRⅡ^(+)hNPCs.Our study has provided a new methodology for an in vitro model capable of amplifying human fetal spinal cord cell numbers for>10 passages.Investigations of the role BMPRⅡplays in spinal cord development have primarily relied upon mouse and rat models,with interpolations to human development being derived through inference.Because of significant species differences between murine biology and human,including anatomical dissimilarities in central nervous system(CNS)structure,the findings made in murine models cannot be presumed to apply to human spinal cord development.For these reasons,our human in vitro model offers a novel tool to better understand neurodevelopmental pathways,including BMP signaling,as well as spinal cord injury research and testing drug therapies.

Comparison of the Development Model of DTP Pharmacy between China and the United States and Its Enlightenment

Objective To systematically analyze the development status of DTP pharmacy in the United States and China,and to find out the problems in China’s DTP pharmacy and put forward some countermeasures and suggestions.Methods Relevant literature was searched and reviewed to study the history,market scale and development trend of DTP pharmacy in the United States and China.Then,the problems in China’s DTP pharmacy were found out.Results and Conclusion DTP pharmacy model in the U.S.has taken shape and is maturing.The high degree of industry concentration is an important feature of the U.S.pharmacy.In contrast,China’s DTP pharmacy started late,and the industry pattern has not yet been finalized.There are still some problems in the DTP pharmacy certification and quality management.It is recommended to promote the rapid development of DTP pharmacies in China by encouraging the outflow of prescription drugs,establishing a third-party pharmacy accreditation organization and strengthening the team of licensed pharmacists and other personnel.

HV Process Model of Software Development

Software Development Life Cycle (SDLC) is one of the major ingredients for the development of efficient software systems within a time frame and low-cost involvement. From the literature, it is evident that there are various kinds of process models that are used by the software industries for the development of small, medium and long-term software projects, but many of them do not cover risk management. It is quite obvious that the improper selection of the software development process model leads to failure of the software products as it is time bound activity. In the present work, a new software development process model is proposed which covers the risks at any stage of the development of the software product. The model is named a Hemant-Vipin (HV) process model and may be helpful for the software industries for development of the efficient software products and timely delivery at the end of the client. The efficiency of the HV process model is observed by considering various kinds of factors like requirement clarity, user feedback, change agility, predictability, risk identification, practical implementation, customer satisfaction, incremental development, use of ready-made components, quick design, resource organization and many more and found through a case study that the presented approach covers many of parameters in comparison of the existing process models. .

Discontinuity development patterns and the challenges for 3D discrete fracture network modeling on complicated exposed rock surfaces

Natural slopes usually display complicated exposed rock surfaces that are characterized by complex and substantial terrain undulation and ubiquitous undesirable phenomena such as vegetation cover and rockfalls.This study presents a systematic outcrop research of fracture pattern variations in a complicated rock slope,and the qualitative and quantitative study of the complex phenomena impact on threedimensional(3D)discrete fracture network(DFN)modeling.As the studies of the outcrop fracture pattern have been so far focused on local variations,thus,we put forward a statistical analysis of global variations.The entire outcrop is partitioned into several subzones,and the subzone-scale variability of fracture geometric properties is analyzed(including the orientation,the density,and the trace length).The results reveal significant variations in fracture characteristics(such as the concentrative degree,the average orientation,the density,and the trace length)among different subzones.Moreover,the density of fracture sets,which is approximately parallel to the slope surface,exhibits a notably higher value compared to other fracture sets across all subzones.To improve the accuracy of the DFN modeling,the effects of three common phenomena resulting from vegetation and rockfalls are qualitatively analyzed and the corresponding quantitative data processing solutions are proposed.Subsequently,the 3D fracture geometric parameters are determined for different areas of the high-steep rock slope in terms of the subzone dimensions.The results show significant variations in the same set of 3D fracture parameters across different regions with density differing by up to tenfold and mean trace length exhibiting differences of 3e4 times.The study results present precise geological structural information,improve modeling accuracy,and provide practical solutions for addressing complex outcrop issues.

Constructing a Triangular Linkage Model of Government Audit,Social Audit,and Internal Audit to Promote High-Quality Development of Audit Services

It is a complex and important topic to study the linkage mechanism of government audit,social audit,and internal audit in the context of China’s high-quality economic development.The implementation of measures,such as establishing a sound and perfect organizational safeguard mechanism,strengthening project collaborative audit mechanism,enhancing the mechanism for utilizing audit results,and establishing an audit and rectification joint mechanism can promote the efficient operation of the audit supervision system and the high-quality development of audit services.

Development and Application of a Power Law Constitutive Model for Eddy Current Dampers

Eddy current dampers (ECDs) have emerged as highly desirable solutions for vibration control due to theirexceptional damping performance and durability. However, the existing constitutive models present challenges tothe widespread implementation of ECD technology, and there is limited availability of finite element analysis (FEA)software capable of accurately modeling the behavior of ECDs. This study addresses these issues by developing anewconstitutivemodel that is both easily understandable and user-friendly for FEAsoftware. By utilizing numericalresults obtained from electromagnetic FEA, a novel power law constitutive model is proposed to capture thenonlinear behavior of ECDs. The effectiveness of the power law constitutive model is validated throughmechanicalproperty tests and numerical seismic analysis. Furthermore, a detailed description of the application process ofthe power law constitutive model in ANSYS FEA software is provided. To facilitate the preliminary design ofECDs, an analytical derivation of energy dissipation and parameter optimization for ECDs under harmonicmotionis performed. The results demonstrate that the power law constitutive model serves as a viable alternative forconducting dynamic analysis using FEA and optimizing parameters for ECDs.

"Three-in-One" Ecological Development and Efficient Utilization Model of Aggregates

Green mining and the formation of an effective and efficient development model have become key issues that aggregates enterprises around the world need to solve urgently.On the basis of analyzing the development status of aggregates industry in Xiluodu area,the paper studied the main problems faced in the construction of green aggregates mines at present,and proposed a"three-in-one"ecological,intelligent and efficient green mine construction model for"ecological development","green logistics"and"solid waste recycling"of aggregates.The study has certain theoretical value and practical significance for the construction of green aggregates mine in Xiluodu area.

Development of a chronic compression spinal cord injury model in neonatal and adult rats

Background:Spinal cord injury presents a significant burden globally,with traumatic spinal cord injury being the predominant cause historically.However,nontraumatic spinal cord injury(NTSCI)is emerging as a significant contributor,particularly in devel-oped nations,yet it remains poorly understood due to underreporting and misclassifi-cation.NTSCI,spanning various etiologies such as bony growths,vascular conditions,infections,neoplastic conditions,and immune disorders,poses unique challenges in diagnosis and treatment,often resulting in lifelong morbidity.This study addresses the lack of suitable animal models for NTSCI research,especially in neonatal animals.Methods:Utilizing a solid spacer approach,we developed a compression NTSCI model applicable to both neonatal and adult Sprague-Dawley rats.Results:Through anatomical measurements and in vivo experiments,we confirmed the feasibility and safety of the spacer insertion procedure and observed no acute off-target effects.Conclusion:The versatility of this model lies in its adaptability to different ages of rats,offering a cost-effective and reproducible means to induce graded injuries.Moreover,behavioral assessments demonstrated observable hindlimb function,validating the model's utility for studying functional outcomes.Although challenges persist,par-ticularly in accounting for spinal column growth in neonatal animals,this model fills a crucial gap in pediatric NTSCI research.By providing a platform to investigate patho-physiological mechanisms and test potential treatments,it offers promising avenues for advancing our understanding and management of pediatric NTSCI.

Innovation and Development Trends in ASEAN Marketing Models in the Digital Age

The digital wave is reshaping the global economic landscape with unprecedented force,especially in the dynamic and promising ASEAN region.Southeast Asia,a multicultural gathering place composed of ten countries,is experiencing profound changes due to the digital revolution,and its marketing model is also displaying new vitality.With soaring internet penetration,widespread use of smartphones,and the booming rise of social media,ASEAN markets have become at the forefront of global digital marketing innovation.This transformation is not only about the application of technology but also involves a comprehensive shift in thinking,consumer behavior,and business strategy.The purpose of this paper is to explore in depth how ASEAN marketing models are innovating in this era and to identify future trends,with a view to providing insights for companies to help them remain competitive in the rapidly changing market.

Establishment of human cerebral organoid systems to model early neural development and assess the central neurotoxicity of environmental toxins

Human brain development is a complex process,and animal models often have significant limitations.To address this,researchers have developed pluripotent stem cell-derived three-dimensional structures,known as brain-like organoids,to more accurately model early human brain development and disease.To enable more consistent and intuitive reproduction of early brain development,in this study,we incorporated forebrain organoid culture technology into the traditional unguided method of brain organoid culture.This involved embedding organoids in matrigel for only 7 days during the rapid expansion phase of the neural epithelium and then removing them from the matrigel for further cultivation,resulting in a new type of human brain organoid system.This cerebral organoid system replicated the temporospatial characteristics of early human brain development,including neuroepithelium derivation,neural progenitor cell production and maintenance,neuron differentiation and migration,and cortical layer patterning and formation,providing more consistent and reproducible organoids for developmental modeling and toxicology testing.As a proof of concept,we applied the heavy metal cadmium to this newly improved organoid system to test whether it could be used to evaluate the neurotoxicity of environmental toxins.Brain organoids exposed to cadmium for 7 or 14 days manifested severe damage and abnormalities in their neurodevelopmental patterns,including bursts of cortical cell death and premature differentiation.Cadmium exposure caused progressive depletion of neural progenitor cells and loss of organoid integrity,accompanied by compensatory cell proliferation at ectopic locations.The convenience,flexibility,and controllability of this newly developed organoid platform make it a powerful and affordable alternative to animal models for use in neurodevelopmental,neurological,and neurotoxicological studies.

A Hybrid Model for Improving Software Cost Estimation in Global Software Development

Accurate software cost estimation in Global Software Development(GSD)remains challenging due to reliance on historical data and expert judgments.Traditional models,such as the Constructive Cost Model(COCOMO II),rely heavily on historical and accurate data.In addition,expert judgment is required to set many input parameters,which can introduce subjectivity and variability in the estimation process.Consequently,there is a need to improve the current GSD models to mitigate reliance on historical data,subjectivity in expert judgment,inadequate consideration of GSD-based cost drivers and limited integration of modern technologies with cost overruns.This study introduces a novel hybrid model that synergizes the COCOMO II with Artificial Neural Networks(ANN)to address these challenges.The proposed hybrid model integrates additional GSD-based cost drivers identified through a systematic literature review and further vetted by industry experts.This article compares the effectiveness of the proposedmodelwith state-of-the-artmachine learning-basedmodels for software cost estimation.Evaluating the NASA 93 dataset by adopting twenty-six GSD-based cost drivers reveals that our hybrid model achieves superior accuracy,outperforming existing state-of-the-artmodels.The findings indicate the potential of combining COCOMO II,ANN,and additional GSD-based cost drivers to transform cost estimation in GSD.

Development and validation of a machine learning-based early prediction model for massive intraoperative bleeding in patients with primary hepatic malignancies

BACKGROUND Surgical resection remains the primary treatment for hepatic malignancies,and intraoperative bleeding is associated with a significantly increased risk of death.Therefore,accurate prediction of intraoperative bleeding risk in patients with hepatic malignancies is essential to preventing bleeding in advance and providing safer and more effective treatment.AIM To develop a predictive model for intraoperative bleeding in primary hepatic malignancy patients for improving surgical planning and outcomes.METHODS The retrospective analysis enrolled patients diagnosed with primary hepatic malignancies who underwent surgery at the Hepatobiliary Surgery Department of the Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University between 2010 and 2020.Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify potential risk factors for intraoperative bleeding.A prediction model was developed using Python programming language,and its accuracy was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve analysis.RESULTS Among 406 primary liver cancer patients,16.0%(65/406)suffered massive intraoperative bleeding.Logistic regression analysis identified four variables as associated with intraoperative bleeding in these patients:ascites[odds ratio(OR):22.839;P<0.05],history of alcohol consumption(OR:2.950;P<0.015),TNM staging(OR:2.441;P<0.001),and albumin-bilirubin score(OR:2.361;P<0.001).These variables were used to construct the prediction model.The 406 patients were randomly assigned to a training set(70%)and a prediction set(30%).The area under the ROC curve values for the model’s ability to predict intraoperative bleeding were 0.844 in the training set and 0.80 in the prediction set.CONCLUSION The developed and validated model predicts significant intraoperative blood loss in primary hepatic malignancies using four preoperative clinical factors by considering four preoperative clinical factors:ascites,history of alcohol consumption,TNM staging,and albumin-bilirubin score.Consequently,this model holds promise for enhancing individualised surgical planning.

Retrospective Analysis of Radiofrequency Ablation in Patients with Small Solitary Hepatocellular Carcinoma:Survival Outcomes and Development of a Machine Learning Prognostic Model

Background and Objective The effectiveness of radiofrequency ablation(RFA)in improving long-term survival outcomes for patients with a solitary hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)measuring 5 cm or less remains uncertain.This study was designed to elucidate the impact of RFA therapy on the survival outcomes of these patients and to construct a prognostic model for patients following RFA.Methods This study was performed using the Surveillance,Epidemiology,and End Results(SEER)database from 2004 to 2017,focusing on patients diagnosed with a solitary HCC lesion≤5 cm in size.We compared the overall survival(OS)and cancer-specific survival(CSS)rates of these patients with those of patients who received hepatectomy,radiotherapy,or chemotherapy or who were part of a blank control group.To enhance the reliability of our findings,we employed stabilized inverse probability treatment weighting(sIPTW)and stratified analyses.Additionally,we conducted a Cox regression analysis to identify prognostic factors.XGBoost models were developed to predict 1-,3-,and 5-year CSS.The XGBoost models were evaluated via receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves,calibration plots,decision curve analysis(DCA)curves and so on.Results Regardless of whether the data were unadjusted or adjusted for the use of sIPTWs,the 5-year OS(46.7%)and CSS(58.9%)rates were greater in the RFA group than in the radiotherapy(27.1%/35.8%),chemotherapy(32.9%/43.7%),and blank control(18.6%/30.7%)groups,but these rates were lower than those in the hepatectomy group(69.4%/78.9%).Stratified analysis based on age and cirrhosis status revealed that RFA and hepatectomy yielded similar OS and CSS outcomes for patients with cirrhosis aged over 65 years.Age,race,marital status,grade,cirrhosis status,tumor size,and AFP level were selected to construct the XGBoost models based on the training cohort.The areas under the curve(AUCs)for 1,3,and 5 years in the validation cohort were 0.88,0.81,and 0.79,respectively.Calibration plots further demonstrated the consistency between the predicted and actual values in both the training and validation cohorts.Conclusion RFA can improve the survival of patients diagnosed with a solitary HCC lesion≤5 cm.In certain clinical scenarios,RFA achieves survival outcomes comparable to those of hepatectomy.The XGBoost models developed in this study performed admirably in predicting the CSS of patients with solitary HCC tumors smaller than 5 cm following RFA.

Analysis on the Development Model of Relic and Museum Tourism Products Based on ERP Analysis:A Case Study on Shandong Province

In recent years, the trend of people choosing relic and museum tourism during their vacationand leisure time is growing day by day, mainly because it touches people's feelings about historical relicsand cultural heritage. The development of relic and museum tourism products is not only the inheritanceof culture and the protection of cultural relics, but also the promotion of tourism consumption under thebackground of cultural tourism integration, which has promoted the development of regional economy.With the relic and museum tourism resources in Shandong Province as the research object, through theanalysis of its resources, market and products, this paper put forward three applicable modes of relic andmuseum tourism product development, including independent development, joint development, and artauthorization, and proposed specific suggestions around the three modes.

Development and Validation of a Scaled Electric Combat Vehicle Tire Model

Pneumatic tire modeling and validation have been the topic of several research papers, however, most of these papers only deal with pneumatic passenger and truck tires. In recent years, wheeled-scaled vehicles have gained lots of attention as a feasible testing platform, nonetheless up to the authors’ knowledge there has been no research regarding the use of scaled tires and their effect on the overall vehicle performance characteristics. This paper presents a novel scaled electric combat vehicle tire model and validation technique. The pro-line lockdown tire size 3.00 × 7.35 is modeled using the Finite Element Analysis (FEA) technique and several materials including layered membrane, beam elements, and Mooney-Rivlin for rubber. The tire-rim assembly is then described, and the rigid body analysis is presented. The tire is then validated using an in-house custom-made static tire testing machine. The tire test rig is made specifically to test the pro-line tire model and is designed and manufactured in the laboratory. The tire is validated using vertical stiffness and footprint tests in the static domain at different operating conditions including several vertical loads. Then the tire is used to perform rolling resistance and steering analysis including the rolling resistance coefficient and the cornering stiffness. The analysis is performed at different operating conditions including longitudinal speeds of 5, 10, and 15 km/h. This tire model will be further used to determine the tractive and braking performance of the tire. Furthermore, the tire test rig will also be modified to perform cornering stiffness tests.

Development of a new Cox model for predicting long-term survival in hepatitis cirrhosis patients underwent transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts

BACKGROUND Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt(TIPS)placement is a procedure that can effectively treat complications of portal hypertension,such as variceal bleeding and refractory ascites.However,there have been no specific studies on predicting long-term survival after TIPS placement.AIM To establish a model to predict long-term survival in patients with hepatitis cirrhosis after TIPS.METHODS A retrospective analysis was conducted on a cohort of 224 patients who un-derwent TIPS implantation.Through univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses,various factors were examined for their ability to predict survival at 6 years after TIPS.Consequently,a composite score was formulated,encompassing the indication,shunt reasonability,portal venous pressure gradient(PPG)after TIPS,percentage decrease in portal venous pressure(PVP),indocyanine green retention rate at 15 min(ICGR15)and total bilirubin(Tbil)level.Furthermore,the performance of the newly developed Cox(NDC)model was evaluated in an in-ternal validation cohort and compared with that of a series of existing models.RESULTS The indication(variceal bleeding or ascites),shunt reasonability(reasonable or unreasonable),ICGR15,post-operative PPG,percentage of PVP decrease and Tbil were found to be independent factors affecting long-term survival after TIPS placement.The NDC model incorporated these parameters and successfully identified patients at high risk,exhibiting a notably elevated mortality rate following the TIPS procedure,as observed in both the training and validation cohorts.Additionally,in terms of predicting the long-term survival rate,the performance of the NDC model was significantly better than that of the other four models[Child-Pugh,model for end-stage liver disease(MELD),MELD-sodium and the Freiburg index of post-TIPS survival].CONCLUSION The NDC model can accurately predict long-term survival after the TIPS procedure in patients with hepatitis cirrhosis,help identify high-risk patients and guide follow-up management after TIPS implantation.

Development and validation of a circulating tumor DNA-based optimization-prediction model for short-term postoperative recurrence of endometrial cancer

BACKGROUND Endometrial cancer(EC)is a common gynecological malignancy that typically requires prompt surgical intervention;however,the advantage of surgical management is limited by the high postoperative recurrence rates and adverse outcomes.Previous studies have highlighted the prognostic potential of circulating tumor DNA(ctDNA)monitoring for minimal residual disease in patients with EC.AIM To develop and validate an optimized ctDNA-based model for predicting shortterm postoperative EC recurrence.METHODS We retrospectively analyzed 294 EC patients treated surgically from 2015-2019 to devise a short-term recurrence prediction model,which was validated on 143 EC patients operated between 2020 and 2021.Prognostic factors were identified using univariate Cox,Lasso,and multivariate Cox regressions.A nomogram was created to predict the 1,1.5,and 2-year recurrence-free survival(RFS).Model performance was assessed via receiver operating characteristic(ROC),calibration,and decision curve analyses(DCA),leading to a recurrence risk stratification system.RESULTS Based on the regression analysis and the nomogram created,patients with postoperative ctDNA-negativity,postoperative carcinoembryonic antigen 125(CA125)levels of<19 U/mL,and grade G1 tumors had improved RFS after surgery.The nomogram’s efficacy for recurrence prediction was confirmed through ROC analysis,calibration curves,and DCA methods,highlighting its high accuracy and clinical utility.Furthermore,using the nomogram,the patients were successfully classified into three risk subgroups.CONCLUSION The nomogram accurately predicted RFS after EC surgery at 1,1.5,and 2 years.This model will help clinicians personalize treatments,stratify risks,and enhance clinical outcomes for patients with EC.