Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Gansu Section of Yellow River Basin Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model

As a basic natural resource and strategic economic resource,the development and utilization of water resources is an important issue related to the national economy and people's livelihood.How to scientifically evaluate the water resources carrying capacity is the premise to improve the regional water resources carrying capacity and ensure the regional water security.The Gansu section of the Yellow River basin is an important water conservation and recharge area.Whether the water resources in this area can ensure the normal operation of the ecosystem and whether it can carry the sustainable development of social economy is the key to realize the high-quality development of the Yellow River basin.In this study,from the three dimensions of water consumption per capita,water consumption of 10000 yuan GDP and ecological water use rate,by constructing the evaluation index system and index grading standard of water resources carrying capacity,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was used to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin,in order to provide theoretical decision-making basis for the comprehensive development,utilization and planning management of water resources in Gansu section of the Yellow River basin and even the whole basin,and help the high-quality development of the Yellow River basin.

GRACE-based estimates of water discharge over the Yellow River basin

As critical component of hydrologic cycle, basin discharge is a key issue for understanding the hydrological and climatologic related to water and energy cycles. Combining GRACE gravity field models with ET from GLDAS models and precipitation from GPCP, discharge of the Yellow River basin are estimated from the water balance equation. While comparing the results with discharge from GLDAS model and in situ measurements, the results reveal that discharge from Mosaic and CLM GLDAS model can partially represent the river discharge and the discharge estimation from water balance equation could reflect the discharge from precipitation over the Yellow River basin.

The comprehensive evaluation on resource environmental bearing capacity of central cities in the Yellow River Delta-A case study on Dongying City

Dongying City, which is the most important central city in the Yellow River Delta, is located in the estuary of the Yellow River. With a short land formation time, ecological environment is very weak in this area. To realize the sustainable economic development of the Yellow River Delta, resource environment and resource environmental bearing capacity(REBC) must be improved. This study builds assessment system of regional REBC through resource and economic characteristics in Yellow River Delta and uses principal component analysis(PCA) method to evaluate REBC of five counties and districts in Dongying City in 2011-2015 on the dimensions of time and space. Results show that, on the time dimension, Guangrao County is ranked first, Dongying district second for four years and Hekou and Kenli districts with lower ranks in 2012-2015, indicating that more attention needs to be paid to REBC of Hekou and Dongying districts and these two districts should be included into key monitoring areas. From space scale, REBC in five counties and districts has been gradually improving. In order to further develop REBC in Dongying City, measures such as intensifying protection of urban ecological environment and developing circular economy, etc. should be implemented.

SEDIMENT DISCHARGE OF THE HUANGHE RIVER AND ITS EFFECT ON SEDIMENTATION OF THE BOHAI SEA AND THE YELLOW SEA

The Huanghe (Yellow) River, with annual sediment discharge about 11 ×108tons, contributes about 17% of the fluvial sediment discharge of world’s 21 major rivers to the ocean because its middle reaches flow across the great Loess Plateau of China. Sediment discharge of the Huanghe River has a widespread and profound effect on sedimentation of the sea. The remarkable shift of its outlet in 1128-1855 A.D. to the South Yellow Sea formed a large subaqueous delta and provided the substrate for an extensive submarine ridge field.The shift of its outlet in the modern delta every 10 years is the main reason why with an extremely heavy sediment input and a micro- tidal environment, the Huanghe River has not succeeded in building a birdfoot delta like the Mississippi. The Huanghe River has consistently brought heavy sediment input to sea at least since 0.7 myr.B.P. Paleochannels, paleosols, cheniers and fossils on the sea bottom indicate that the Yellow Sea was exposed during the late Quaternary glacial low-sea

Response of delta sedimentary system to variation of water and sediment in the Yellow River over past six decades

In order to find out the variation process of water-sediment and its effect on the Yellow River Delta, the water discharge and sediment load at Lijin from 1950 to 2007 and the decrease of water discharge and sediment load in the Yellow River Basin caused by human disturbances were analyzed by means of statistics. It was shown that the water discharge and sediment load into the sea were decreasing from 1950 to 2007 with serious fluctuation. The human activities were the main cause for decrease of water discharge and sediment load into the sea. From 1950 to 2005, the average annual reduction of water discharge and sediment load by means of water-soil conservation practices were 2.02×10^9 m^3 and 3.41×10^8 t respectively, and the average annual volume by water abstraction for industry and agriculture were 2.52×10^10 m^3 and 2.42×10^8 t respectively. The average sediment trapped by Sanmenxia Reservoir was 1.45×10^8 t from 1960 to 2007, and the average sediment retention of Xiaolangdi Reservoir was 2.398×10^8t from 1997 to 2007. Compared to the data records at Huanyuankou, the water discharge and sediment load into the sea decreased with siltation in the lower reaches and increased with scouring in the lower reaches. The coastline near river mouth extended and the delta area increased when the ratio of accumulative sediment load and accumulative water discharge into the sea （SSCT） is 25.4-26.0 kg/m^3 in different time periods. However, the sharp decrease of water discharge and sediment load into the sea in recent years, especially the Yellow River into the sea at Qing 8, the entire Yellow River Delta has turned into erosion from siltation, and the time for a reversal of the state was about 1997.

Water discharge variability of Changjiang(Yangtze) and Huanghe(Yellow) Rivers and its response to climatic changes

Influences of large-scale climatic phenomena,such as the El Nino/La Nina-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO),on the temporal variations of the annual water discharge at the Lijin station in the Huanghe(Yellow) River and at the Datong station in the Changjiang(Yangtze)River were examined.Using the empirical mode decomposition-maximum entropy spectral analysis(EMDMES A) method,the 2- to 3-year,8- to 14-year,and 23-year cyclical variations of the annual water discharge at the two stations were discovered.Based on the analysis results,the hydrological time series on the interannual to interdecadal scales were constructed.The results indicate that from 1950 to 2011,a significant downward trend occurred in the natural annual water discharge in Huanghe River.However,the changes in water discharge in Changjiang River basin exhibited a slightly upward trend.It indicated that the changes in the river discharge in the Huanghe basin were driven primarily by precipitation.Other factors,such as the precipitation over the Changjiang River tributaries,ice melt and evaporation contributed much more to the increase in the Changjiang River basin.Especially,the impacts of the inter-annual and inter-decadal climate oscillations such as ENSO and PDO could change the long-term patterns of precipitation over the basins of the two major rivers.Generally,low amounts of basin-wide precipitation on interannual to interdecadal scales over the two rivers corresponded to most of the warm ENSO events and the warm phases of the PDO,and vice versa.The positive phases of the PDO and ENSO could lead to reduced precipitation and consequently affect the long-term scale water discharges at the two rivers.

Using Rn-222 to Study Human-Regulated River Water-Sediment Input Event in the Estuary

The implementation of the water sediment regulation scheme(WSRS)is a typical example of artificially controlling land-source input.During WSRS,the water discharge of the Yellow River will increase significantly,and so will the input of terri-genous materials.In this study,we used a natural geochemical tracer 222Rn to quantify terrestrial inputs under the influence of the 2014 WSRS in the Yellow River Estuary.The results indicated that during WSRS the concentration of 222Rn in the estuary increased by about four times than in the period before WSRS.The high-level 222Rn plume disappeared quickly after WSRS,indicating that 222Rn has a very short‘memory effect’in the estuary.Based on the investigation conducted from 2015 to 2016,the concentration of 222Rn tended to be stable in the lower reaches of the Yellow River.During WSRS,the concentrations of 222Rn in the river water in-creased sharply at about 3–5 times greater than in the non-WSRS period.Based on the 222Rn mass balance model,the fluxes of 222Rn caused by submarine groundwater discharge(SGD)were estimated to be(3.5±1.7)×10^(3),(11±3.9)×10^(3),and(5.2±1.9)×10^(3)dpm m^(-2)d^(-1)in the periods before,during,and after WSRS,respectively.This finding indicated that SGD was the major source of 222Rn in the Yellow River Estuary,which can be significantly increased during WSRS.Furthermore,the SGD-associated nutrient fluxes were estimated to be 9.8×10^(3),2.5×102,and 1.1×10^(4)μmolm^(-2)d^(-1)for dissolved inorganic nitrogen,phosphorus,and silicon,respectively,during WSRS or about 2–40 times greater than during the non-WSRS period.

Impacts of Land-use and Land-cover Changes on River Runoff in Yellow River Basin for Period of 1956–2012

River runoff is affected by many factors, including long-term effects such as climate change that alter rainfall-runoff relationships, and short-term effects related to human intervention(e.g., dam construction, land-use and land-cover change(LUCC)). Discharge from the Yellow River system has been modified in numerous ways over the past century, not only as a result of increased demands for water from agriculture and industry, but also due to hydrological disturbance from LUCC, climate change and the construction of dams. The combined effect of these disturbances may have led to water shortages. Considering that there has been little change in long-term precipitation, dramatic decreases in water discharge may be attributed mainly to human activities, such as water usage, water transportation and dam construction. LUCC may also affect water availability, but the relative contribution of LUCC to changing discharge is unclear. In this study, the impact of LUCC on natural discharge(not including anthropogenic usage) is quantified using an attribution approach based on satellite land cover and discharge data. A retention parameter is used to relate LUCC to changes in discharge. We find that LUCC is the primary factor, and more dominant than climate change, in driving the reduction in discharge during 1956–2012, especially from the mid-1980 s to the end-1990 s. The ratio of each land class to total basin area changed significantly over the study period. Forestland and cropland increased by about 0.58% and 1.41%, respectively, and unused land decreased by 1.16%. Together, these variations resulted in changes in the retention parameter, and runoff generation showed a significant decrease after the mid-1980 s. Our findings highlight the importance of LUCC to runoff generation at the basin scale, and improve our understanding of the influence of LUCC on basin-scale hydrology.

Healthy Yellow River’s essence and indicators

River＇s healthy life is a description of their living conditions, and it is also a comprehensive assessment of river＇s functions and relations with the human society. Through analyzing the demands of human being and river ecosystem, the continuous flow, safe river channel for water and sediment transportation, good water quality, sustainable river ecosystem and water supply capacity are regarded as symbols of the healthy Yellow River. Minimum flow, maximum flood discharging capacity, bank-full discharge, transverse slope of floodplain, water quality degree, wetlands area, aquatic ecosystem, and water supply capacity, altogether eight quantitative indicators are set as symbols of healthy Yellow River, and their corresponding standards are determined based on the analysis with historical hydrological data and observed data of 1956-2004.

POLLUTION TREND IN THE TUMEN RIVER AND ITS INFLUENCE ON REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

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基于CMIP6气候模式和两种水文模型综合集成预估的黄河源区未来40年流量变化

基于两个共享社会经济低碳路径(SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5)下的CMIP6中的8个GCMs气候模式进行黄河源区2021—2060年平均气温和降水量预估。在此基础上,利用CMIP6中的8个GCMs气候模式分别驱动HBV、SWAT水文模型综合集成预估了黄河源区2021—2060年流量的年代际变化。结果表明:SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5情景下,2021—2060年黄河源区呈暖湿化趋势,平均气温较基准期(1995—2014年)分别上升1.3℃、1.6℃,年降水量分别增加11.6%、11.5%。SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5情景下2021—2060年黄河源区年平均流量分别增多8.6%、8.5%;两种情景下黄河源区21世纪各年代际流量均增加,其中21世纪20年代和30年代流量增幅小于40年代、50年代流量增幅。SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5情景下黄河源区2021—2060年6—8月流量减幅在1%以下,而3—5月和9—12月流量增幅为0.1%~2.1%。SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5情景下黄河源区蓄水期(9—11月)极端丰水流量增加2.5%~2.7%,SSP1-2.6情景下黄河源区2021—2060年汛期(6—8月)极端丰水流量总体增加0.1%,SSP2-4.5情景下黄河源区汛期极端丰水流量减少1.3%,SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5情景下黄河源区枯水期(12至次年5月)极端丰水流量减少0.7%~1.0%;黄河源区汛期(SSP1-2.6和SSP2-4.5情景)及枯水期(SSP1-2.6情景)极端枯水流量较基准期增加0.8%~1.9%,两种情景下黄河源区蓄水期极端枯水流量减少1.8%~2.3%。

黄河下游灌区引黄涵闸引水能力变化原因分析

黄河下游引黄涵闸受河床下切、河势变化等因素共同影响,引水条件与设计情况相比发生了变化,造成部分河段涵闸引水困难,影响农业适时灌溉和生产。为给应对引黄涵闸引水能力下降问题提供参考,基于黄河下游2000—2016年引黄涵闸引水水位和河道断面实测数据,分析引黄涵闸引水水位变化、河槽冲刷、引黄渠道淤积变化等因素对引黄涵闸引水能力产生的影响。结果表明:1)2016年黄河来水300~900 m^(3)/s时,黄河下游引黄涵闸实际引水能力仅为设计引水能力的13.63%~39.43%,引黄涵闸引水能力明显下降;2)相较2000年,2016年的引黄涵闸设计值对应黄河流量的水位,高村以上河段下降了2.95~3.35 m,高村以下河段下降了1.55~2.95 m;3)从河段河床平均冲刷厚度看,花园口—夹河滩、夹河滩—高村、高村—孙口、孙口—艾山、艾山—泺口、泺口—利津河段的冲刷厚度分别为3.88、3.06、1.84、1.88、1.88、2.02 m,河槽连续冲刷导致同流量水位明显降低,严重影响河南和山东段引黄涵闸正常引水;4)涵闸前后引、输水渠道淤积会导致引黄涵闸引水能力降低。

流凌封河预报指标法及其在黄河内蒙古河段的应用

把流凌封河累积负气温作为黄河内蒙古河段封河预报关键指标,明确累积负气温与封河流量、降温强度、河槽形态等的关系,确定现有河槽形态以及海勃湾水库运用影响下不同流量和降温强度封河所需的累积负气温,并建立了流凌封河累积负气温预估公式。指标法可以在很大程度上提高黄河内蒙古河段封河预报的预见期与精度。

黄河下游花园口以上河段滞沙能力分析

黄河下游河床调整主要取决于来水来沙和河床边界条件,河床调整沿程不均衡特征明显,花园口以上河段床演变对水沙条件的变化响应尤为突出,泥沙冲淤调整幅度最大。基于河道冲淤及水沙演进特性、滞沙可行性、河槽几何特性等分析,提出了花园口以上河段可作为泥沙天然反调节“库”概念,结合黄河下游实测洪水资料,采用水力计算方法,计算了花园口以上河段的河槽排洪能力及不同河槽规模条件下河槽允许滞沙量,提出了反调“库”滞沙能力,可为小浪底水库排沙指标的确定提供依据,对维持小浪底水库有效库容、弥补后续清水河床沙源不足、改善黄河下游河槽冲淤不均衡现象具有重要意义。

龙羊峡水库后汛期入库径流特征及可蓄水量分析

以1956—2022年唐乃亥水文站实测水文数据为基础,采用数理统计方法,重点分析黄河源区后汛期径流特征,并结合龙羊峡水库满负荷发电流量,对龙羊峡水库在后汛期可蓄水量进行不同情景的分析讨论。研究表明:1)唐乃亥水文站后汛期径流量年际变化较大,丰枯不均,以正常偏枯为主,多年平均后汛期径流量占汛期径流量的29.1%;2)唐乃亥水文站后汛期日平均流量在1000 m^(3)/s以上的径流量平均为8.96亿m^(3),年际变化极大,以1000 m^(3)/s发电流量运用,龙羊峡水库蓄至正常蓄水位的保证率仅为10%,多数年份汛期结束后水位无法达到正常蓄水位2600 m。建议根据后期来水,适时调整进入后汛期的时机,优化和调整龙羊峡水库年度调度方案,为高效合理利用黄河源区后汛期水资源奠定基础。

Temporal variability of water discharge and sediment load of the Yellow River into the sea during 1950-2008

Based on hydrological data observed at Lijin gauging station from 1950 to 2008, the temporal changes of water discharge and sediment load of the Yellow River into the sea were analyzed by the wavelet analysis, and their impacts on the estuary were investigated in different periods based on the measured coastline and bathymetry data. The results show that： （1） there were three significant periodicities, i.e. annual （0.5-1.0-year）, inter-annual （3.0-6.5-year） and decadal （10.1-14.2-year）, in the variations of water discharge and sediment load into the sea, which might be related to the periodic variations of El Nino and Southern Oscillation at long-term timescales. Variations of water discharge and sediment load were varying in various timescales, and their periodic variations were not significant during the 1970s-2000s due to strong human disturbances. （2） The long-term variation of water discharge and sediment load into the sea has shown a stepwise decrease since the 1950s due to the combined influences of human activities and precipitation decrease in the Yellow River Basin, and the human activities were the main cause for the decrease of water discharge and sediment load. （3） The water discharge and sediment load into the sea greatly influenced the evolution of the Yellow River Estuary, especially the stretch rate of coastline and the deposition rate of the sub-aqueous topography off the estuary which deposited since 1976.

黄河“几”字弯都市圈资源环境承载力与经济发展耦合协调研究

在生态文明建设理念下,如何实现生态脆弱区资源环境与经济的协调发展,已成为我国亟待解决的问题之一。以典型生态脆弱区黄河“几”字弯都市圈21个地级市为例,基于2005年、2010年、2015年、2020年的资源环境与经济发展数据,运用熵权TOPSIS法分析资源环境承载力状况,并引入耦合协调度模型揭示资源环境承载力与经济发展水平耦合协调关系及其时空演变特征,结果表明:黄河“几”字弯都市圈资源环境承载力呈波动上升趋势,区域差异显著;资源环境承载力与经济发展水平的耦合协调度整体逐渐趋向于更高程度的耦合;通过莫兰指数分析发现,黄河“几”字弯都市圈资源环境承载力与经济发展水平耦合协调度为显著空间正相关。

Response of flood discharging capacity to the deterioration of the lower Yellow River

Based on the clarifications of the deterioration characteristics of the lower Yellow River (LYR), the influence of river deterioration on flood discharging capacity is studied through theoretical derivation and analysis of field data. This study indicates that response of flood discharging capacity to river deterioration is nonlinear. Sediment depositions in the main channel cause the reductions of dominant discharge and thus the increase of initial flood stage. Reductions in the channel width result in the increases of the rising rate of flood stage and the decrease of flood discharging capacity.

现行黄河口分汊河道的分流特征及其影响机制

自2013年黄河尾闾河道出汊形成双槽入海的河口汊道,控制了河口流量的分配,但其分流特征及其影响机制尚不清楚。本文基于Delft3D构建了黄河口汊道的水动力三维数值模型,模拟了不同工况下河口汊道的分流特征,揭示了其影响机制。结果表明:河口汊道的分流不对称性随流量的增加而减小,流量增加加大了东汊与北汊河道的水位梯度差,使得从东汊河道的流量增量较北汊河道大,河流流量的分配更加均匀。潮汐作用增强了河口汊道的流量不对称性,而随着径流量的增加,潮汐的增强作用逐渐减弱。这主要由于在半日潮的作用下,东汊和北汊河道水位梯度的差异,形成河口潮汐的“东阻北促”效应,增强了河口汊道的分流不对称性。