The data on the coal production and consumption in Jilin Province for the last ten years were collected,and the Grey System GM( 1,1) model and unary linear regression model were applied to predict the coal consumption...The data on the coal production and consumption in Jilin Province for the last ten years were collected,and the Grey System GM( 1,1) model and unary linear regression model were applied to predict the coal consumption of Jilin Production in 2014 and 2015. Through calculation,the predictive value on the coal consumption of Jilin Province was attained,namely consumption of 2014 is 114. 84 × 106 t and of 2015 is 117. 98 ×106t,respectively. Analysis of error data indicated that the predicted accuracy of Grey System GM( 1,1) model on the coal consumption in Jilin Province improved 0. 21% in comparison to unary linear regression model.展开更多
Firstly, the research progress of grey model GM （1,1） is summarized, which is divided into three development stages： assimilation, alienation and melting stages. Then, the matrix analysis theory is used to study th...Firstly, the research progress of grey model GM （1,1） is summarized, which is divided into three development stages： assimilation, alienation and melting stages. Then, the matrix analysis theory is used to study the modeling mechanism of GM （1,1）, which decomposes the modeling data matrix into raw data transformation matrix, accumulated generating operation matrix and background value selection matrix. The changes of these three matrices are the essential reasons affecting the modeling and the accuracy of GM （1,1）. Finally, the paper proposes a generalization grey model GGM （1,1）, which is a extended form of GM （1,1） and also a unified form of model GM （1,1）, model GM （1,1,α）, stage grey model, hopping grey model, generalized accumulated model, strengthening operator model, weakening operator model and unequal interval model. And the theory and practical significance of the extended model is analyzed.展开更多
基金Supported by project of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41272360)
文摘The data on the coal production and consumption in Jilin Province for the last ten years were collected,and the Grey System GM( 1,1) model and unary linear regression model were applied to predict the coal consumption of Jilin Production in 2014 and 2015. Through calculation,the predictive value on the coal consumption of Jilin Province was attained,namely consumption of 2014 is 114. 84 × 106 t and of 2015 is 117. 98 ×106t,respectively. Analysis of error data indicated that the predicted accuracy of Grey System GM( 1,1) model on the coal consumption in Jilin Province improved 0. 21% in comparison to unary linear regression model.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(70971103)the Specialized Research Fund for the Doctora Program of Higher Education(20120143110001)
文摘Firstly, the research progress of grey model GM （1,1） is summarized, which is divided into three development stages： assimilation, alienation and melting stages. Then, the matrix analysis theory is used to study the modeling mechanism of GM （1,1）, which decomposes the modeling data matrix into raw data transformation matrix, accumulated generating operation matrix and background value selection matrix. The changes of these three matrices are the essential reasons affecting the modeling and the accuracy of GM （1,1）. Finally, the paper proposes a generalization grey model GGM （1,1）, which is a extended form of GM （1,1） and also a unified form of model GM （1,1）, model GM （1,1,α）, stage grey model, hopping grey model, generalized accumulated model, strengthening operator model, weakening operator model and unequal interval model. And the theory and practical significance of the extended model is analyzed.
