There are two technical challenges in predicting slope deformation.The first one is the random displacement,which could not be decomposed and predicted by numerically resolving the observed accumulated displacement an...There are two technical challenges in predicting slope deformation.The first one is the random displacement,which could not be decomposed and predicted by numerically resolving the observed accumulated displacement and time series of a landslide.The second one is the dynamic evolution of a landslide,which could not be feasibly simulated simply by traditional prediction models.In this paper,a dynamic model of displacement prediction is introduced for composite landslides based on a combination of empirical mode decomposition with soft screening stop criteria(SSSC-EMD)and deep bidirectional long short-term memory(DBi-LSTM)neural network.In the proposed model,the time series analysis and SSSC-EMD are used to decompose the observed accumulated displacements of a slope into three components,viz.trend displacement,periodic displacement,and random displacement.Then,by analyzing the evolution pattern of a landslide and its key factors triggering landslides,appropriate influencing factors are selected for each displacement component,and DBi-LSTM neural network to carry out multi-datadriven dynamic prediction for each displacement component.An accumulated displacement prediction has been obtained by a summation of each component.For accuracy verification and engineering practicability of the model,field observations from two known landslides in China,the Xintan landslide and the Bazimen landslide were collected for comparison and evaluation.The case study verified that the model proposed in this paper can better characterize the"stepwise"deformation characteristics of a slope.As compared with long short-term memory(LSTM)neural network,support vector machine(SVM),and autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model,DBi-LSTM neural network has higher accuracy in predicting the periodic displacement of slope deformation,with the mean absolute percentage error reduced by 3.063%,14.913%,and 13.960%respectively,and the root mean square error reduced by 1.951 mm,8.954 mm and 7.790 mm respectively.Conclusively,this model not only has high prediction accuracy but also is more stable,which can provide new insight for practical landslide prevention and control engineering.展开更多
One of the important issues in the system identification and the spectrum analysis is the frequency resolution, i.e., the capability of distinguishing between two or more closely spaced frequency components. In the mo...One of the important issues in the system identification and the spectrum analysis is the frequency resolution, i.e., the capability of distinguishing between two or more closely spaced frequency components. In the modal identification by the empirical mode decomposition （EMD） method, because of the separating capability of the method, it is still a challenge to consistently and reliably identify the parameters of structures of which modes are not well separated. A new method is introduced to generate the intrin- sic mode functions （IMFs） through the filtering algorithm based on the wavelet packet decomposition （GIFWPD）. In this paper, it is demonstrated that the CIFWPD method alone has a good capability of separating close modes, even under the severe condition beyond the critical frequency ratio limit which makes it impossible to separate two closely spaced harmonics by the EMD method. However, the GIFWPD-only based method is impelled to use a very fine sampling frequency with consequent prohibitive computational costs. Therefore, in order to decrease the computational load by reducing the amount of samples and improve the effectiveness of separation by increasing the frequency ratio, the present paper uses a combination of the complex envelope displacement analysis （CEDA） and the GIFWPD method. For the validation, two examples from the previous works are taken to show the results obtained by the GIFWPD-only based method and by combining the CEDA with the GIFWPD method.展开更多
文摘There are two technical challenges in predicting slope deformation.The first one is the random displacement,which could not be decomposed and predicted by numerically resolving the observed accumulated displacement and time series of a landslide.The second one is the dynamic evolution of a landslide,which could not be feasibly simulated simply by traditional prediction models.In this paper,a dynamic model of displacement prediction is introduced for composite landslides based on a combination of empirical mode decomposition with soft screening stop criteria(SSSC-EMD)and deep bidirectional long short-term memory(DBi-LSTM)neural network.In the proposed model,the time series analysis and SSSC-EMD are used to decompose the observed accumulated displacements of a slope into three components,viz.trend displacement,periodic displacement,and random displacement.Then,by analyzing the evolution pattern of a landslide and its key factors triggering landslides,appropriate influencing factors are selected for each displacement component,and DBi-LSTM neural network to carry out multi-datadriven dynamic prediction for each displacement component.An accumulated displacement prediction has been obtained by a summation of each component.For accuracy verification and engineering practicability of the model,field observations from two known landslides in China,the Xintan landslide and the Bazimen landslide were collected for comparison and evaluation.The case study verified that the model proposed in this paper can better characterize the"stepwise"deformation characteristics of a slope.As compared with long short-term memory(LSTM)neural network,support vector machine(SVM),and autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model,DBi-LSTM neural network has higher accuracy in predicting the periodic displacement of slope deformation,with the mean absolute percentage error reduced by 3.063%,14.913%,and 13.960%respectively,and the root mean square error reduced by 1.951 mm,8.954 mm and 7.790 mm respectively.Conclusively,this model not only has high prediction accuracy but also is more stable,which can provide new insight for practical landslide prevention and control engineering.
基金supported by the State Key Program of National Natural Science of China (No. 11232009)the Shanghai Leading Academic Discipline Project (No. S30106)
文摘One of the important issues in the system identification and the spectrum analysis is the frequency resolution, i.e., the capability of distinguishing between two or more closely spaced frequency components. In the modal identification by the empirical mode decomposition （EMD） method, because of the separating capability of the method, it is still a challenge to consistently and reliably identify the parameters of structures of which modes are not well separated. A new method is introduced to generate the intrin- sic mode functions （IMFs） through the filtering algorithm based on the wavelet packet decomposition （GIFWPD）. In this paper, it is demonstrated that the CIFWPD method alone has a good capability of separating close modes, even under the severe condition beyond the critical frequency ratio limit which makes it impossible to separate two closely spaced harmonics by the EMD method. However, the GIFWPD-only based method is impelled to use a very fine sampling frequency with consequent prohibitive computational costs. Therefore, in order to decrease the computational load by reducing the amount of samples and improve the effectiveness of separation by increasing the frequency ratio, the present paper uses a combination of the complex envelope displacement analysis （CEDA） and the GIFWPD method. For the validation, two examples from the previous works are taken to show the results obtained by the GIFWPD-only based method and by combining the CEDA with the GIFWPD method.
文摘针对非线性波动性发展的滑坡,为了提高其位移变化的预测精度,以经验模态分解(Empirical Mode Decomposition)方法对滑坡监测地表位移的时间序列进行处理,将不规律变化的位移序列转化为存在一定规律变化的模态分量,得到不同频率的位移分量,对每一分量单独预测,避免误差相互影响,通过预测所有分量的变化趋势来综合预测位移序列的变化趋势,利用改进门限自回归模型(Threshold Auto Regressive)对非稳态谐波描述性较好的优势预测滑坡位移分量,最后模态叠加得到最终预测位移,建立了基于经验模态分解和门限自回归模型的组合预测模型,结合白水河滑坡实例数据验证该模型的预测精度,通过与BP神经网络模型、长短时间记忆网络模型进行预测对比,提出的组合模型预测精度较高,为滑坡位移的预测提供了一种新的方法。
