Climate change predictions for the Pacific Northwest region of the United States of America include increasing temperatures, intensification of winter precipitation, and a shift from mixed snow/rain to rain-dominant e...Climate change predictions for the Pacific Northwest region of the United States of America include increasing temperatures, intensification of winter precipitation, and a shift from mixed snow/rain to rain-dominant events, all of which may increase the risk of soil erosion and threaten agricultural and ecological productivity. Here we used the agricultural/environmental model SWAT with climate predictions from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) “high CO2 emissions” scenario (RCP8.5) to study the impact of altered temperature and precipitation patterns on soil erosion and crop productivity in the Willamette River Basin of western Oregon. An ensemble of 10 climate models representing the full range in temperature and precipitation predictions of CIMP5 produced substantial increases in sediment yield, with differences between yearly averages for the final (2090-2099) and first (2010-2019) decades ranging from 3.9 to 15.2 MT·ha-1 among models. Sediment yield in the worst case model (CanESM2) corresponded to loss of 1.5 - 2.7 mm·soil·y-1, equivalent to potentially stripping productive topsoil from the landscape in under two centuries. Most climate models predicted only small increases in precipitation (an average of 5.8% by the end of the 21st century) combined with large increases in temperature (an average of 0.05°C·y-1). We found a strong correlation between predicted temperature increases and sediment yield, with a regression model combining both temperature and precipitation effects describing 79% of the total variation in annual sediment yield. A critical component of response to increased temperature was reduced snowfall during high precipitation events in the wintertime. SWAT characterized years with less than basin-wide averages of 20 mm of precipitation falling as snow as likely to experience severe sediment loss for multiple crops/land uses. Mid-elevation sub-basins that are projected to shift from rain-snow transition to rain-dominant appear particularly vulnerable to sediment loss. Analyses of predicted crop yields indicated declining productivity for many commonly grown grass seed and cereal crops, along with increasing productivity for certain other crops. Adaptation by agriculture and forestry to warmer, more erosive conditions may include changes in selection of crop kinds and in production management practices.展开更多
Soil conservation practices can greatly affect the soil erosion process,but limited information is available about its influence on the particle size distribution(PSD)of eroded sediment,especially under natural rainfa...Soil conservation practices can greatly affect the soil erosion process,but limited information is available about its influence on the particle size distribution(PSD)of eroded sediment,especially under natural rainfall.In this study,the runoff,sediment yields,and effective/ultimate PSD were measured under two conventional tillage practices,downhill ridge tillage(DT)and plat tillage(PT)and three soil conservation practices,contour ridge tillage(CT),mulching with downhill ridge tillage(MDT),and mulching with contour ridge tillage(MCT)during 21 natural rainfall events in the lower Jinsha River.The results showed that(1)soil conservation practices had a significant effect on soil erosion.The conventional tillage of DT caused highest runoff depth(0.58 to 29.13 mm)and sediment yield(0.01 to 3.19 t hm^(-2)).Compared with DT,the annual runoff depths and sediment yields of CT,MDT and MCT decreased by 12.24%-49.75%and 40.79%-88.30%,respectively.(2)Soil conservation practices can reduce the decomposition of aggregates in sediments.The ratios of effective and ultimate particle size(E/U)of siltand sand-sized particles of DT and PT plots were close to 1,indicating that they were transported as primary particles,however,values lower/greater than 1 subject to CT,MDT and MCT plots indicated they were transported as aggregates.The ratios of E/U of claysized particles were all less than 1 independently of tillage practices.(3)The sediments of soil conservation practices were more selective than those of conventional tillage practices.For CT,MDT and MCT plots,the average enrichment ratios(ERs)of clay,silt and sand were 1.99,1.93 and 0.42,respectively,with enrichment of clay and silt and depletion of sand in sediments.However,the compositions of the eroded sediments of DT and PT plots were similar to that of the original soil.These findings support the use of both effective and ultimate particle size distributions for studying the size selectivity of eroded sediment,and provide a scientific basis for revealing the erosion mechanism in the purple soil area of China.展开更多
Based on meteorologic data in Xixi Watershed from 1972 to 1979, the SWAT model was applied to simulate the response of runoff and sediment yield in Xixi Watershed to climate change under 24 kinds of climate change sce...Based on meteorologic data in Xixi Watershed from 1972 to 1979, the SWAT model was applied to simulate the response of runoff and sediment yield in Xixi Watershed to climate change under 24 kinds of climate change scenarios, and then the spatial and temporal distribution of change rates of the runoff and sediment were analyzed. The results showed that the runoff yield would increase with the increase of precipitation or decrease of temperature, and the sediment yield would increase with the increase of precipitation or increase of temperature; the runoff would be more sensitive to variations in precipitation than to variations in temperature, and precipitation change would lead to more obvious change in the run- off yield; the temporal distribution of change rates of the runoff and sediment yield would be uneven in the 12 months, and the variation trends of the two change rates in the 12 months would be accordant; the spatial distribution of change rates of the runoff and sediment yield would be uneven in the sub-watersheds, and the change rate of the runoff yield would be bigger in the sub-watersheds where the runoff yield in the basic period would be smaller. This study can provide decision-making basis for sustainable development of Jinjiang Basin.展开更多
The Ganga River, the longest river in India, is stressed by extreme anthropogenic activity and climate change, particularly in the Varanasi region. Anticipated climate changes and an expanding populace are expected to...The Ganga River, the longest river in India, is stressed by extreme anthropogenic activity and climate change, particularly in the Varanasi region. Anticipated climate changes and an expanding populace are expected to further impede the efficient use of water. In this study, hydrological modeling was applied to Soil and Water Assessment Tool （SWAT） modeling in the Ganga catchment, over a region of 15 621.612 km2 in the southern part of Uttar Pradesh. The primary goals of this study are： ① To test the execution and applicability of the SWAT model in anticipating runoff and sediment yield; and ② to compare and determine the best calibration algorithm among three popular algorithms-sequential uncertainty fitting version 2 （SUFI-2）, the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation （GLUE）, and par-allel solution （ParaSol）. The input data used in the SWAT were the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission （SRTM） digital elevation model （DEM）, Landsat-8 satellite imagery, soil data, and daily meteorological data. The watershed of the study area was delineated into 46 sub-watersheds, and a land use/land cover （LULC） map and soil map were used to create hydrological response units （HRUs）. Models utilizing SUFI- 2, GLUE, and ParaSol methods were constructed, and these algorithms were compared based on five cat-egories： their objective functions, the concepts used, their performances, the values of P-factors, and the values of R-factors. As a result, it was observed that SUFI-2 is a better performer than the other two algo-rithms for use in calibrating Indian watersheds, as this method requires fewer runs for a computational model and yields the best results among the three algorithms. ParaSol is the worst performer among the three algorithms. After calibrating using SUFI-2, five parameters including the effective channel hydraulic conductivity （CH_K2）, the universal soil-loss equation （USLE） support parameter （USLE_P）, Manning＇s n value for the main channel （CH_N2）, the surface runoff lag time （SURLAG）, and the available water capac-ity of the soil layer （SOL_AWC） were observed to be the most sensitive parameters for modeling the pre-sent watershed. It was also found that the maximum runoff occurred in sub-watershed number 40 （SW#40）, while the maximum sediment yield was 50 t.a ^1 for SW#36, which comprised barren land. The average evapotranspiration for the basin was 411.55 mm.a ^1. The calibrated model can be utilized in future to facilitate investigation of the impacts of LULC, climate change, and soil erosion.展开更多
文摘Climate change predictions for the Pacific Northwest region of the United States of America include increasing temperatures, intensification of winter precipitation, and a shift from mixed snow/rain to rain-dominant events, all of which may increase the risk of soil erosion and threaten agricultural and ecological productivity. Here we used the agricultural/environmental model SWAT with climate predictions from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) “high CO2 emissions” scenario (RCP8.5) to study the impact of altered temperature and precipitation patterns on soil erosion and crop productivity in the Willamette River Basin of western Oregon. An ensemble of 10 climate models representing the full range in temperature and precipitation predictions of CIMP5 produced substantial increases in sediment yield, with differences between yearly averages for the final (2090-2099) and first (2010-2019) decades ranging from 3.9 to 15.2 MT·ha-1 among models. Sediment yield in the worst case model (CanESM2) corresponded to loss of 1.5 - 2.7 mm·soil·y-1, equivalent to potentially stripping productive topsoil from the landscape in under two centuries. Most climate models predicted only small increases in precipitation (an average of 5.8% by the end of the 21st century) combined with large increases in temperature (an average of 0.05°C·y-1). We found a strong correlation between predicted temperature increases and sediment yield, with a regression model combining both temperature and precipitation effects describing 79% of the total variation in annual sediment yield. A critical component of response to increased temperature was reduced snowfall during high precipitation events in the wintertime. SWAT characterized years with less than basin-wide averages of 20 mm of precipitation falling as snow as likely to experience severe sediment loss for multiple crops/land uses. Mid-elevation sub-basins that are projected to shift from rain-snow transition to rain-dominant appear particularly vulnerable to sediment loss. Analyses of predicted crop yields indicated declining productivity for many commonly grown grass seed and cereal crops, along with increasing productivity for certain other crops. Adaptation by agriculture and forestry to warmer, more erosive conditions may include changes in selection of crop kinds and in production management practices.
基金funded by the Key Project of China National Tobacco Corporation Sichuan Province Company(Grants No.SCYC201802)CAS President’s International Fellowship Initiative(Grants No.2019VEA0032)。
文摘Soil conservation practices can greatly affect the soil erosion process,but limited information is available about its influence on the particle size distribution(PSD)of eroded sediment,especially under natural rainfall.In this study,the runoff,sediment yields,and effective/ultimate PSD were measured under two conventional tillage practices,downhill ridge tillage(DT)and plat tillage(PT)and three soil conservation practices,contour ridge tillage(CT),mulching with downhill ridge tillage(MDT),and mulching with contour ridge tillage(MCT)during 21 natural rainfall events in the lower Jinsha River.The results showed that(1)soil conservation practices had a significant effect on soil erosion.The conventional tillage of DT caused highest runoff depth(0.58 to 29.13 mm)and sediment yield(0.01 to 3.19 t hm^(-2)).Compared with DT,the annual runoff depths and sediment yields of CT,MDT and MCT decreased by 12.24%-49.75%and 40.79%-88.30%,respectively.(2)Soil conservation practices can reduce the decomposition of aggregates in sediments.The ratios of effective and ultimate particle size(E/U)of siltand sand-sized particles of DT and PT plots were close to 1,indicating that they were transported as primary particles,however,values lower/greater than 1 subject to CT,MDT and MCT plots indicated they were transported as aggregates.The ratios of E/U of claysized particles were all less than 1 independently of tillage practices.(3)The sediments of soil conservation practices were more selective than those of conventional tillage practices.For CT,MDT and MCT plots,the average enrichment ratios(ERs)of clay,silt and sand were 1.99,1.93 and 0.42,respectively,with enrichment of clay and silt and depletion of sand in sediments.However,the compositions of the eroded sediments of DT and PT plots were similar to that of the original soil.These findings support the use of both effective and ultimate particle size distributions for studying the size selectivity of eroded sediment,and provide a scientific basis for revealing the erosion mechanism in the purple soil area of China.
基金Supported by the Science and Technology Development Plan Project of Binzhou City(Policy Guidance)(2013ZC1001)Scientific Research Foundation of Binzhou University(BZXYG1414)+1 种基金Key Science and Technology Project for the Control of Major Safety Production Accidents in 2015 of State Administration of Work Safety(Shandong-0052-2015AQ)Project for Experimental Techniques of Binzhou University(BZXYSYXM201207)
文摘Based on meteorologic data in Xixi Watershed from 1972 to 1979, the SWAT model was applied to simulate the response of runoff and sediment yield in Xixi Watershed to climate change under 24 kinds of climate change scenarios, and then the spatial and temporal distribution of change rates of the runoff and sediment were analyzed. The results showed that the runoff yield would increase with the increase of precipitation or decrease of temperature, and the sediment yield would increase with the increase of precipitation or increase of temperature; the runoff would be more sensitive to variations in precipitation than to variations in temperature, and precipitation change would lead to more obvious change in the run- off yield; the temporal distribution of change rates of the runoff and sediment yield would be uneven in the 12 months, and the variation trends of the two change rates in the 12 months would be accordant; the spatial distribution of change rates of the runoff and sediment yield would be uneven in the sub-watersheds, and the change rate of the runoff yield would be bigger in the sub-watersheds where the runoff yield in the basic period would be smaller. This study can provide decision-making basis for sustainable development of Jinjiang Basin.
文摘The Ganga River, the longest river in India, is stressed by extreme anthropogenic activity and climate change, particularly in the Varanasi region. Anticipated climate changes and an expanding populace are expected to further impede the efficient use of water. In this study, hydrological modeling was applied to Soil and Water Assessment Tool （SWAT） modeling in the Ganga catchment, over a region of 15 621.612 km2 in the southern part of Uttar Pradesh. The primary goals of this study are： ① To test the execution and applicability of the SWAT model in anticipating runoff and sediment yield; and ② to compare and determine the best calibration algorithm among three popular algorithms-sequential uncertainty fitting version 2 （SUFI-2）, the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation （GLUE）, and par-allel solution （ParaSol）. The input data used in the SWAT were the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission （SRTM） digital elevation model （DEM）, Landsat-8 satellite imagery, soil data, and daily meteorological data. The watershed of the study area was delineated into 46 sub-watersheds, and a land use/land cover （LULC） map and soil map were used to create hydrological response units （HRUs）. Models utilizing SUFI- 2, GLUE, and ParaSol methods were constructed, and these algorithms were compared based on five cat-egories： their objective functions, the concepts used, their performances, the values of P-factors, and the values of R-factors. As a result, it was observed that SUFI-2 is a better performer than the other two algo-rithms for use in calibrating Indian watersheds, as this method requires fewer runs for a computational model and yields the best results among the three algorithms. ParaSol is the worst performer among the three algorithms. After calibrating using SUFI-2, five parameters including the effective channel hydraulic conductivity （CH_K2）, the universal soil-loss equation （USLE） support parameter （USLE_P）, Manning＇s n value for the main channel （CH_N2）, the surface runoff lag time （SURLAG）, and the available water capac-ity of the soil layer （SOL_AWC） were observed to be the most sensitive parameters for modeling the pre-sent watershed. It was also found that the maximum runoff occurred in sub-watershed number 40 （SW#40）, while the maximum sediment yield was 50 t.a ^1 for SW#36, which comprised barren land. The average evapotranspiration for the basin was 411.55 mm.a ^1. The calibrated model can be utilized in future to facilitate investigation of the impacts of LULC, climate change, and soil erosion.
