The generation and propagation mechanism of strong nonlinear waves in the South China Sea is an essential research area. In this study, the third-generation wave model WAVEWATCH Ⅲ is employed to simulate wave fields ...The generation and propagation mechanism of strong nonlinear waves in the South China Sea is an essential research area. In this study, the third-generation wave model WAVEWATCH Ⅲ is employed to simulate wave fields under extreme sea states. The model, integrating the ST6 source term, is validated against observed data, demonstrating its credibility. The spatial distribution of the occurrence probability of strong nonlinear waves during typhoons is shown, and the waves in the straits and the northeastern part of the South China Sea show strong nonlinear characteristics. The high-order spectral model HOS-ocean is employed to simulate the random wave surface series beneath five different platform areas. The waves during the typhoon exhibit strong nonlinear characteristics, and freak waves exist. The space-varying probability model is established to describe the short-term probability distribution of nonlinear wave series. The exceedance probability distributions of the wave surface beneath different platform areas are compared and analyzed. The results show that with an increase in the platform area, the probability of a strong nonlinear wave beneath the platform increases.展开更多
Objective:To explore the effects of daily mean temperature(°C),average daily air pressure(hPa),humidity(%),wind speed(m/s),particulate matter(PM)2.5(μg/m3)and PM10(μg/m3)on the admission rate of chronic kidney ...Objective:To explore the effects of daily mean temperature(°C),average daily air pressure(hPa),humidity(%),wind speed(m/s),particulate matter(PM)2.5(μg/m3)and PM10(μg/m3)on the admission rate of chronic kidney disease(CKD)patients admitted to the Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University in Harbin and to identify the indexes and lag days that impose the most critical influence.Methods:The R language Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model(DLNM),Excel,and SPSS were used to analyze the disease and meteorological data of Harbin from 01 January 2010 to 31 December 2019 according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria.Results:Meteorological factors and air pollution influence the number of hospitalizations of CKD to vary degrees in cold regions,and differ in persistence or delay.Non-optimal temperature increases the risk of admission of CKD,high temperature increases the risk of obstructive kidney disease,and low temperature increases the risk of other major types of chronic kidney disease.The greater the temperature difference is,the higher its contribution is to the risk.The non-optimal wind speed and non-optimal atmospheric pressure are associated with increased hospital admissions.PM2.5 concentrations above 40μg/m3 have a negative impact on the results.Conclusion:Cold region meteorology and specific environment do have an impact on the number of hospital admissions for chronic kidney disease,and we can apply DLMN to describe the analysis.展开更多
In this article, we establish the global asymptotic stability of a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium of an SIRS epidemic model with a class of nonlin- ear incidence rates and distributed delays. By u...In this article, we establish the global asymptotic stability of a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium of an SIRS epidemic model with a class of nonlin- ear incidence rates and distributed delays. By using strict monotonicity of the incidence function and constructing a Lyapunov functional, we obtain sufficient conditions under which the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. When the nonlinear inci- dence rate is a saturated incidence rate, our result provides a new global stability condition for a small rate of immunity loss.展开更多
For a class of nonlinear systems whose states are immeasurable, when the outputs of the system are sampled asynchronously, by introducing a state observer, an output feedback distributed model predictive control algor...For a class of nonlinear systems whose states are immeasurable, when the outputs of the system are sampled asynchronously, by introducing a state observer, an output feedback distributed model predictive control algorithm is proposed. It is proved that the errors of estimated states and the actual system's states are bounded. And it is guaranteed that the estimated states of the closed-loop system are ultimately bounded in a region containing the origin. As a result, the states of the actual system are ultimately bounded. A simulation example verifies the effectiveness of the proposed distributed control method.展开更多
It is necessary to test for varying dispersion in generalized nonlinear models.Wei,et al(1998) developed a likelihood ratio test,a score test and their adjustments to test for varying dispersion in continuous exponent...It is necessary to test for varying dispersion in generalized nonlinear models.Wei,et al(1998) developed a likelihood ratio test,a score test and their adjustments to test for varying dispersion in continuous exponential family nonlinear models.This type of problem in the framework of general discrete exponential family nonlinear models is discussed.Two types of varying dispersion,which are random coefficients model and random effects model,are proposed,and corresponding score test statistics are constructed and expressed in simple,easy to use,matrix formulas.展开更多
Binary logistic regression models are commonly used to assess the association between outcomes and covariates. Many covariates are inherently continuous, and have a variety of distributions, including those that are h...Binary logistic regression models are commonly used to assess the association between outcomes and covariates. Many covariates are inherently continuous, and have a variety of distributions, including those that are heavily skewed to the left or right. Existing theoretical formulas, criteria, and simulation programs cannot accurately estimate the sample size and power of non-standard distributions. Therefore, we have developed a simulation program that uses Monte Carlo methods to estimate the exact power of a binary logistic regression model. This power calculation can be used for distributions of any shape and covariates of any type (continuous, ordinal, and nominal), and can account for nonlinear relationships between covariates and outcomes. For illustrative purposes, this simulation program is applied to real data obtained from a study on the influence of smoking on 90-day outcomes after acute atherothrombotic stroke. Our program is applicable to all effect sizes and makes it possible to apply various statistical methods, logistic regression and related simulations such as Bayesian inference with some modifications.展开更多
The nonlinear dynamics of cantilevered piezoelectric beams is investigated under simultaneous parametric and external excitations. The beam is composed of a substrate and two piezoelectric layers and assumed as an Eul...The nonlinear dynamics of cantilevered piezoelectric beams is investigated under simultaneous parametric and external excitations. The beam is composed of a substrate and two piezoelectric layers and assumed as an Euler-Bernoulli model with inextensible deformation. A nonlinear distributed parameter model of cantilevered piezoelectric energy harvesters is proposed using the generalized Hamilton＇s principle. The proposed model includes geometric and inertia nonlinearity, but neglects the material nonlinearity. Using the Galerkin decomposition method and harmonic balance method, analytical expressions of the frequency-response curves are presented when the first bending mode of the beam plays a dominant role. Using these expressions, we investigate the effects of the damping, load resistance, electromechanical coupling, and excitation amplitude on the frequency-response curves. We also study the difference between the nonlinear lumped-parameter and distributed- parameter model for predicting the performance of the energy harvesting system. Only in the case of parametric excitation, we demonstrate that the energy harvesting system has an initiation excitation threshold below which no energy can be harvested. We also illustrate that the damping and load resistance affect the initiation excitation threshold.展开更多
Objective This study aimed to determine the spatiotemporal distribution and epidemiological characteristics of hospital admissions for carbon monoxide poisoning(COP)in Guangdong,China,from 2013 to 2020.Methods Data on...Objective This study aimed to determine the spatiotemporal distribution and epidemiological characteristics of hospital admissions for carbon monoxide poisoning(COP)in Guangdong,China,from 2013 to 2020.Methods Data on age-and sex-specific numbers of hospital admissions due to COP in Guangdong(2013-2020)were collected.Daily temperatures were downloaded through the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System.We analyzed temporal trends through time series decomposition and used spatial autocorrelation analysis to detect spatial clustering.The distributed lag nonlinear model was used to quantify the effects of temperature.Results There were 48,854 COP admissions over the study period.The sex ratio(male to female)was1:1.74.The concentration ratios(M)ranged from 0.73-0.82.The highest risk occurred in January(season index=3.59).Most cases were concentrated in the northern mountainous areas of Guangdong with high-high clustering.COP in the study region showed significant spatial autocorrelation,and the global Moran’s I value of average annual hospital admission rates for COP was 0.447(P<0.05).Low temperatures were associated with high hospital admission rates for COP,with a lag lasting 7 days.With a lag of 0 days,the effects of low temperatures[5th(12℃)]on COP were 2.24-3.81,as compared with the reference temperature[median(24℃)].Conclusion COP in Guangdong province showed significant temporal and spatial heterogeneity.Low temperature was associated with a high risk of COP,and the influence had a lag lasting 7 days.展开更多
Tube furnaces are essential and primary energy intensive facilities in petrochemical plants. Operational optimization of furnaces could not only help to improve product quality but also benefit to reduce energy consum...Tube furnaces are essential and primary energy intensive facilities in petrochemical plants. Operational optimization of furnaces could not only help to improve product quality but also benefit to reduce energy consumption and exhaust emission. Inspired by this idea, this paper presents a composite model predictive control(CMPC)strategy, which, taking advantage of distributed model predictive control architectures, combines tracking nonlinear model predictive control and economic nonlinear model predictive control metrics to keep process running smoothly and optimize operational conditions. The controllers connected with two kinds of communication networks are easy to organize and maintain, and stable to process interferences. A fast solution algorithm combining interior point solvers and Newton's method is accommodated to the CMPC realization, with reasonable CPU computing time and suitable online applications. Simulation for industrial case demonstrates that the proposed approach can ensure stable operations of furnaces, improve heat efficiency, and reduce the emission effectively.展开更多
Industrial noise can be successfully mitigated with the combined use of passive and Active Noise Control (ANC) strategies. In a noisy area, a practical solution for noise attenuation may include both the use of baffle...Industrial noise can be successfully mitigated with the combined use of passive and Active Noise Control (ANC) strategies. In a noisy area, a practical solution for noise attenuation may include both the use of baffles and ANC. When the operator is required to stay in movement in a delimited spatial area, conventional ANC is usually not able to adequately cancel the noise over the whole area. New control strategies need to be devised to achieve acceptable spatial coverage. A three-dimensional actuator model is proposed in this paper. Active Noise Control (ANC) usually requires a feedback noise measurement for the proper response of the loop controller. In some situations, especially where the real-time tridimensional positioning of a feedback transducer is unfeasible, the availability of a 3D precise noise level estimator is indispensable. In our previous works [1,2], using a vibrating signal of the primary source of noise as an input reference for spatial noise level prediction proved to be a very good choice. Another interesting aspect observed in those previous works was the need for a variable-structure linear model, which is equivalent to a sort of a nonlinear model, with unknown analytical equivalence until now. To overcome this in this paper we propose a model structure based on an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) as a nonlinear black-box model to capture the dynamic nonlinear behaveior of the investigated process. This can be used in a future closed loop noise cancelling strategy. We devise an ANN architecture and a corresponding training methodology to cope with the problem, and a MISO (Multi-Input Single-Output) model structure is used in the identification of the system dynamics. A metric is established to compare the obtained results with other works elsewhere. The results show that the obtained model is consistent and it adequately describes the main dynamics of the studied phenomenon, showing that the MISO approach using an ANN is appropriate for the simulation of the investigated process. A clear conclusion is reached highlighting the promising results obtained using this kind of modeling for ANC.展开更多
基金financially supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2022YFC3104205)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42377457).
文摘The generation and propagation mechanism of strong nonlinear waves in the South China Sea is an essential research area. In this study, the third-generation wave model WAVEWATCH Ⅲ is employed to simulate wave fields under extreme sea states. The model, integrating the ST6 source term, is validated against observed data, demonstrating its credibility. The spatial distribution of the occurrence probability of strong nonlinear waves during typhoons is shown, and the waves in the straits and the northeastern part of the South China Sea show strong nonlinear characteristics. The high-order spectral model HOS-ocean is employed to simulate the random wave surface series beneath five different platform areas. The waves during the typhoon exhibit strong nonlinear characteristics, and freak waves exist. The space-varying probability model is established to describe the short-term probability distribution of nonlinear wave series. The exceedance probability distributions of the wave surface beneath different platform areas are compared and analyzed. The results show that with an increase in the platform area, the probability of a strong nonlinear wave beneath the platform increases.
文摘Objective:To explore the effects of daily mean temperature(°C),average daily air pressure(hPa),humidity(%),wind speed(m/s),particulate matter(PM)2.5(μg/m3)and PM10(μg/m3)on the admission rate of chronic kidney disease(CKD)patients admitted to the Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University in Harbin and to identify the indexes and lag days that impose the most critical influence.Methods:The R language Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model(DLNM),Excel,and SPSS were used to analyze the disease and meteorological data of Harbin from 01 January 2010 to 31 December 2019 according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria.Results:Meteorological factors and air pollution influence the number of hospitalizations of CKD to vary degrees in cold regions,and differ in persistence or delay.Non-optimal temperature increases the risk of admission of CKD,high temperature increases the risk of obstructive kidney disease,and low temperature increases the risk of other major types of chronic kidney disease.The greater the temperature difference is,the higher its contribution is to the risk.The non-optimal wind speed and non-optimal atmospheric pressure are associated with increased hospital admissions.PM2.5 concentrations above 40μg/m3 have a negative impact on the results.Conclusion:Cold region meteorology and specific environment do have an impact on the number of hospital admissions for chronic kidney disease,and we can apply DLMN to describe the analysis.
基金supported in part by JSPS Fellows,No.237213 of Japan Society for the Promotion of Science to the first authorthe Grant MTM2010-18318 of the MICINN,Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation to the second authorScientific Research (c),No.21540230 of Japan Society for the Promotion of Science to the third author
文摘In this article, we establish the global asymptotic stability of a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium of an SIRS epidemic model with a class of nonlin- ear incidence rates and distributed delays. By using strict monotonicity of the incidence function and constructing a Lyapunov functional, we obtain sufficient conditions under which the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. When the nonlinear inci- dence rate is a saturated incidence rate, our result provides a new global stability condition for a small rate of immunity loss.
文摘For a class of nonlinear systems whose states are immeasurable, when the outputs of the system are sampled asynchronously, by introducing a state observer, an output feedback distributed model predictive control algorithm is proposed. It is proved that the errors of estimated states and the actual system's states are bounded. And it is guaranteed that the estimated states of the closed-loop system are ultimately bounded in a region containing the origin. As a result, the states of the actual system are ultimately bounded. A simulation example verifies the effectiveness of the proposed distributed control method.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundations of China( 1 9631 0 4 0 ) and SSFC( o2 BTJ0 0 1 ) .
文摘It is necessary to test for varying dispersion in generalized nonlinear models.Wei,et al(1998) developed a likelihood ratio test,a score test and their adjustments to test for varying dispersion in continuous exponential family nonlinear models.This type of problem in the framework of general discrete exponential family nonlinear models is discussed.Two types of varying dispersion,which are random coefficients model and random effects model,are proposed,and corresponding score test statistics are constructed and expressed in simple,easy to use,matrix formulas.
文摘Binary logistic regression models are commonly used to assess the association between outcomes and covariates. Many covariates are inherently continuous, and have a variety of distributions, including those that are heavily skewed to the left or right. Existing theoretical formulas, criteria, and simulation programs cannot accurately estimate the sample size and power of non-standard distributions. Therefore, we have developed a simulation program that uses Monte Carlo methods to estimate the exact power of a binary logistic regression model. This power calculation can be used for distributions of any shape and covariates of any type (continuous, ordinal, and nominal), and can account for nonlinear relationships between covariates and outcomes. For illustrative purposes, this simulation program is applied to real data obtained from a study on the influence of smoking on 90-day outcomes after acute atherothrombotic stroke. Our program is applicable to all effect sizes and makes it possible to apply various statistical methods, logistic regression and related simulations such as Bayesian inference with some modifications.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 11172087)
文摘The nonlinear dynamics of cantilevered piezoelectric beams is investigated under simultaneous parametric and external excitations. The beam is composed of a substrate and two piezoelectric layers and assumed as an Euler-Bernoulli model with inextensible deformation. A nonlinear distributed parameter model of cantilevered piezoelectric energy harvesters is proposed using the generalized Hamilton＇s principle. The proposed model includes geometric and inertia nonlinearity, but neglects the material nonlinearity. Using the Galerkin decomposition method and harmonic balance method, analytical expressions of the frequency-response curves are presented when the first bending mode of the beam plays a dominant role. Using these expressions, we investigate the effects of the damping, load resistance, electromechanical coupling, and excitation amplitude on the frequency-response curves. We also study the difference between the nonlinear lumped-parameter and distributed- parameter model for predicting the performance of the energy harvesting system. Only in the case of parametric excitation, we demonstrate that the energy harvesting system has an initiation excitation threshold below which no energy can be harvested. We also illustrate that the damping and load resistance affect the initiation excitation threshold.
基金supported by National Institute for Occupational Health and Poison Control,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Chemical Poisoning Treatment base and Health Emergency Team Operation[131031109000160007]
文摘Objective This study aimed to determine the spatiotemporal distribution and epidemiological characteristics of hospital admissions for carbon monoxide poisoning(COP)in Guangdong,China,from 2013 to 2020.Methods Data on age-and sex-specific numbers of hospital admissions due to COP in Guangdong(2013-2020)were collected.Daily temperatures were downloaded through the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System.We analyzed temporal trends through time series decomposition and used spatial autocorrelation analysis to detect spatial clustering.The distributed lag nonlinear model was used to quantify the effects of temperature.Results There were 48,854 COP admissions over the study period.The sex ratio(male to female)was1:1.74.The concentration ratios(M)ranged from 0.73-0.82.The highest risk occurred in January(season index=3.59).Most cases were concentrated in the northern mountainous areas of Guangdong with high-high clustering.COP in the study region showed significant spatial autocorrelation,and the global Moran’s I value of average annual hospital admission rates for COP was 0.447(P<0.05).Low temperatures were associated with high hospital admission rates for COP,with a lag lasting 7 days.With a lag of 0 days,the effects of low temperatures[5th(12℃)]on COP were 2.24-3.81,as compared with the reference temperature[median(24℃)].Conclusion COP in Guangdong province showed significant temporal and spatial heterogeneity.Low temperature was associated with a high risk of COP,and the influence had a lag lasting 7 days.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China （61164013, U1334211, 51174091）, the Key Program of China Ministry of Railway （2011Z002-D）, and Natural Science Foundation of Jiangxi Province （20122BAB201021）
文摘Tube furnaces are essential and primary energy intensive facilities in petrochemical plants. Operational optimization of furnaces could not only help to improve product quality but also benefit to reduce energy consumption and exhaust emission. Inspired by this idea, this paper presents a composite model predictive control(CMPC)strategy, which, taking advantage of distributed model predictive control architectures, combines tracking nonlinear model predictive control and economic nonlinear model predictive control metrics to keep process running smoothly and optimize operational conditions. The controllers connected with two kinds of communication networks are easy to organize and maintain, and stable to process interferences. A fast solution algorithm combining interior point solvers and Newton's method is accommodated to the CMPC realization, with reasonable CPU computing time and suitable online applications. Simulation for industrial case demonstrates that the proposed approach can ensure stable operations of furnaces, improve heat efficiency, and reduce the emission effectively.
基金CAPES and CNPq(Brazilian federal research agencies)for their financial support.
文摘Industrial noise can be successfully mitigated with the combined use of passive and Active Noise Control (ANC) strategies. In a noisy area, a practical solution for noise attenuation may include both the use of baffles and ANC. When the operator is required to stay in movement in a delimited spatial area, conventional ANC is usually not able to adequately cancel the noise over the whole area. New control strategies need to be devised to achieve acceptable spatial coverage. A three-dimensional actuator model is proposed in this paper. Active Noise Control (ANC) usually requires a feedback noise measurement for the proper response of the loop controller. In some situations, especially where the real-time tridimensional positioning of a feedback transducer is unfeasible, the availability of a 3D precise noise level estimator is indispensable. In our previous works [1,2], using a vibrating signal of the primary source of noise as an input reference for spatial noise level prediction proved to be a very good choice. Another interesting aspect observed in those previous works was the need for a variable-structure linear model, which is equivalent to a sort of a nonlinear model, with unknown analytical equivalence until now. To overcome this in this paper we propose a model structure based on an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) as a nonlinear black-box model to capture the dynamic nonlinear behaveior of the investigated process. This can be used in a future closed loop noise cancelling strategy. We devise an ANN architecture and a corresponding training methodology to cope with the problem, and a MISO (Multi-Input Single-Output) model structure is used in the identification of the system dynamics. A metric is established to compare the obtained results with other works elsewhere. The results show that the obtained model is consistent and it adequately describes the main dynamics of the studied phenomenon, showing that the MISO approach using an ANN is appropriate for the simulation of the investigated process. A clear conclusion is reached highlighting the promising results obtained using this kind of modeling for ANC.
