Land use scenario simulation of mountainous districts based on Dinamica EGO model

Mountainous area makes up 22% of global land, and rational land use in this area is important for sustainable development. Mentougou district has been positioned as an ecological conservation development zone of Beijing and significant land use changes have taken place since 2004. With the combination of GIS and Dinamica EGO(Environment for Geoprocessing Objects) model, the quantitative structure and spatial distribution of land use in Mentougou from 2006 to 2014 are analyzed in this paper. Considering topography has influence on the action mode of driving factors, the research area is divided into two parts based on elevation, mountainous area above 300 m, plain and shallow mountainous area below 300 m. Based on cellular automata theory, the probability of land use change is calculated by Weights of Evidence method and the spatial distribution of land use is simulated by means of two complementary spatial transition functions: Expander and Patcher. Land use pattern of Menougou in 2030 for three kinds of scenarios: trend development, rapid development and ecological protection are simulated. The comparison shows that the trend development scenario is more reasonable based on social, economic and environmental considerations and other scenarios provide a reference for improving irrational land use.

Finite element modeling of pore-fluid flow in the Dachang ore district,Guangxi,China:Implications for hydrothermal mineralization

Convective heat transfer associated with the circulation of porefluid in porous rocks and fractures within the upper crust of the Earth is substantial when the temperature gradient is sufficiently high. In order to understand the process of Snpolymetallic mineralization in the Dachang ore district of Guangxi, a finite element method has been used in this study to simulate both pore-fluid flow and heat transfer in this district. On the basis of related geological, tectonic and geophysical constraints, a computational model was established. It enables a computational simulation and sensitivity analysis to be carried out for investigating ore-forming pore-fluid flow and other key factors that may affect hydrothermal ore genesis in the district. The related simulation results have indicated that： （1） permeable fault zones in the Dacbang ore district can serve as preferential pathways for pore-fluid flow on a regional-scale; and （2） the pore-fluid flow can affect the salinity distribution. This latter factor is part of the reason why Sn-polymetallic mineralization has taken place in this district.

Statistical Modeling of Malaria Incidences in Apac District, Uganda

Malaria is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in Apac district, Northern Uganda. Hence, the study aimed to model malaria incidences with respect to climate variables for the period 2007 to 2016 in Apac district. Data on monthly malaria incidence in Apac district for the period January 2007 to December 2016 was obtained from the Ministry of health, Uganda whereas climate data was obtained from Uganda National Meteorological Authority. Generalized linear models, Poisson and negative binomial regression models were employed to analyze the data. These models were used to fit monthly malaria incidences as a function of monthly rainfall and average temperature. Negative binomial model provided a better fit as compared to the Poisson regression model as indicated by the residual plots and residual deviances. The Pearson correlation test indicated a strong positive association between rainfall and malaria incidences. High malaria incidences were observed in the months of August, September and November. This study showed a significant association between monthly malaria incidence and climate variables that is rainfall and temperature. This study provided useful information for predicting malaria incidence and developing the future warning system. This is an important tool for policy makers to put in place effective control measures for malaria early enough.

Genetic Types and Metallogenic Model for the Polymetallic Copper–Gold Deposits in the Tongling Ore District, Anhui Province, Eastern China

The Tongling ore district is one of the most economically important ore areas in the Middle–Lower Yangtze River Metallogenic Belt, eastern China. It contains hundreds of polymetallic copper–gold deposits and occurrences. Those deposits are mainly clustered(from west to east) within the Tongguanshan, Shizishan, Xinqiao, Fenghuangshan, and Shatanjiao orefields. Until recently, the majority of these deposits were thought to be skarn-or porphyry–skarn-type deposits; however there have been recent discoveries of numerous vein-type Au, Ag, and Pb-Zn deposits that do not fall into either of these categories. This indicates that there is some uncertainty over this classification. Here, we present the results of several systematic geological studies of representative deposits in the Tongling ore district. From investigation of the ore-controlling structures, lithology of the host rock, mineral assemblages, and the characteristics of the mineralization and alteration within these deposits, three genetic types of deposits(skarn-, porphyry-, and vein-type deposits) have been identified. The spatial and temporal relationships between the orebodies and Yanshanian intrusions combined with the sources of the ore-forming fluids and metals, as well as the geodynamic setting of this ore district, indicate that all three deposit types are genetically related each other and constitute a magmatic–hydrothermal system. This study outlines a model that relates the polymetallic copper–gold porphyry-, skarn-, and vein-type deposits within the Tongling ore district. This model provides a theoretical basis to guide exploration for deep-seated and concealed porphyry-type Cu(–Mo, –Au) deposits as well as shallow vein-type Au, Ag, and Pb–Zn deposits in this area and elsewhere.

Occurrence Regularity and Prediction Model of Underground Pest Adults in Hangzhou District of China

To improve forecasting and sustained control level of underground pests, trapping quantity of underground pests （black cutworm,mole cricket and scar-ab） by lamps and their field dynamics in Hangzhou district from 2005 to 2011 were investigated in the paper. The results showed that different pests had obvious differences in population dynamic. The black cutworm （Agrotis ypsilon） had several damage peaks （late May, late June and late July） and the moth amount in early period was relatively high. The mole cricket （ Gryllotalpa africana） had two damage peaks （late May to early July, early September to mid and late October）. The scarab （Anomala corpulenta） had one damage peak （late May to late June）. There were periodic changes in total quantity of underground pests among years, and the peak period appeared in the year of 2005, 2007 to 2009 and 2011, respectively. On this basis, temperature, humidity, rainfall and light were used as forecas- ting factors, using the method of stepwise regression, 19 factors with significant correlation were screened out and prediction models for occurrence quantity and oc- currence period of the three pests were established. By using accuracy degree judge model for verification, the score values of prediction model for occurrence quan-tity and occurrence period of the three underground pests were more than 58 and 70, which indicated that the historical coincident rate and prediction accuracy of estabhshed prediction models were good.

公立医院一院多区模式与紧密型城市医疗集团的功能解析与差异化发展

一院多区模式和紧密型城市医疗集团是中国医疗卫生服务体系应对城市化、人口老龄化和医疗资源不平衡等挑战的重要举措和我国医疗卫生体制改革的重要成果。二者在资源整合与服务协同等方面呈现出了一定的相似性,但同时在功能定位、理论基础、发展动因、组织结构等多个方面存在根本区别。本文对一院多区模式和紧密型城市医疗集团的定义、表现形式、功能和面临挑战进行辨析的基础上,对其差异化发展趋向和策略进行探讨。

基于MWatNet模型的河套灌区解放闸灌域灌溉水体提取

为提高灌溉农田中灌溉水体的识别精度,以河套灌区解放闸灌域作为研究区,基于Sentinel-2遥感影像,结合灌区实际情况对地表水体提取模型(WatNet)进行改进,得到MWatNet模型并提取灌溉水体。采用总体精度(Overall accuracy,OA)、平均交并比(Mean intersection over union,MIoU)、F1值等水体提取精度指标进行综合评价。结果表明:改进后的地表水体提取模型(MWatNet)在解放闸灌域农田灌溉水体的提取上具有较好的识别精度,模型总体精度达到96%,平均交并比达到83%,F1值为80%,实地调研验证准确度为85.7%;对比原WatNet、水体语义分割模型(Deeplabv3_plus)和水体提取模型(Deepwatermapv2),MWatNet在灌溉水体提取的连结性、剔除道路和城镇干扰等方面,均表现出更好的效果和模型运行效率。利用该模型可以实现灌溉水体定量化表征,为灌溉用水调度提供了数据支撑。

历史文化街区研究的PEST分析及更新策略建议

为了留存城市文化脉络,提出更行之有效的历史文化街区更新策略,以中国知网(CNKI)为数据来源,综合运用PEST模型和文献计量分析方法,综述历史文化街区的研究现状,为开展相关工作提供可借鉴的理论依据。通过在中国知网中检索“历史文化街区”的相关研究文献,从政治、经济、社会、技术4个维度出发,运用文献可视化分析软件对筛选出的文献进行关键词聚类分析,梳理研究热点和重点,总结得出我国历史文化街区保护工作应形成以政府为主导,社会、企业、民众多元参与的有机协调模式,坚持“原真性”修复原则,提高建筑应对灾害的能力,让历史文化街区焕发新的生机与活力。

淠史杭灌区干旱推演及抗旱预案调控研究

水资源干旱是限制灌区可持续发展的关键因素。为提高灌区的干旱防治能力,使其更好的发挥其在节水、减灾方面的作用,以淠史杭灌区为研究区,通过划分水资源配置子单元和设置调蓄节点,采用公平性最优和供水缺水率最小作为目标函数,总量控制、供水能力、分质供水等作为约束条件,采用基于精英策略的非支配遗传改进算法求解,构建区域General Water Allocation and Simulation Model(GWAS)模型;以2022年为现状基准年,与2023规划年组合,分为连续干旱与不连续干旱两大类,基于灌区水资源“应急干旱三次平衡”调控思想,分析灌区水资源在不同干旱情景下缺水的基础上,展开水资源抗旱配置研究,推演分析不同抗旱方案下水资源供需平衡情况。结果表明:连续干旱年中,灌区2023规划年在情景Ⅰ(P=90%)、情景Ⅱ(P=80%)来水频率下,各乡镇配置单元均存在不同程度的缺水情况,区域总缺水率分别为35.1%、20.8%;不连续干旱年中,2023规划年在情景Ⅲ(P=50%)来水频率下,模型基准配置水量基本可以满足区域各乡镇水量需求,区域总缺水率为5.9%。经不同抗旱方案尾部泵站补水、调整作物种植结构及外调水的优化配置后,三种情景下区域总缺水率最终都降为0%,优化后各配置单元供水改善效果显著。研究成果可为淠史杭灌区未来在应对不同干旱类型情景下水资源的合理调整提供技术支撑,并且可为实现该区域水资源统一管理和水量的统一调配提供理论依据。

住宅小区理想规模的模型探究——基于共有空间社会密度的视角

住宅小区内共有空间的社会密度会对居民间的邻里交往产生显著影响。为保证住宅小区共有空间资源的数量和品质,在第Ⅲ建筑气候区条件下建立小区模型,对不同类型小区的共有空间进行分析。结果显示,随着小区内建筑平均层数的增加,户均共有空间资源的数量逐渐减少,共有空间的品质在空间尺度、围合度、私密性等维度上显著降低。基于模型研究结果和城市对土地利用的要求,进而提出住宅小区的理想规模为3~4 hm2,住宅平均层数宜为5~8层,而当确有需要建设高层住宅时,住宅平均层数也不宜超过14层。

基于动态稳定性验证和CA-Markov预测的耕地时空演变特征--以赣榆区为例

为阐明耕地变化动态稳定性验证的重要性,预测“十四五”目标年(2025年)与远景目标年(2035年)的耕地变化,本研究运用耕地面积变异系数、地理集中指数、不平衡指数及趋势分析法,从耕地数量、空间分布与空间发展趋势三个方面,对江苏省连云港市赣榆区耕地变化的动态稳定性进行验证,并运用CA-Markov模型对未来不同政策情境下的耕地变化情况进行模拟。结果表明,2009-2016年赣榆区耕地总量持续下降,未存在较大反复与波动,耕地空间分布较为均衡,耕地占用与补充的空间发展趋势较为连续,总体上具有较高的动态稳定性,符合运用CA-Markov模型的前提条件。预测在各种政策情境下,2025年之前赣榆区将经历快速的耕地非农化过程,至2035年耕地减少的速率有所放缓,具有区位优势的赣榆北部地区将是未来耕地非农化的重点区域,耕地将逐渐向南部内陆地区转移。研究表明,对耕地变化的动态稳定性进行验证可以有效保证CA-Markov模型的模拟精度,赣榆区未来的耕地保护形势不容乐观,应合理协调经济发展与耕地保护之间的关系,保障社会、生态与粮食安全。

基于天气预报的泾惠渠灌区参考作物滕发量预报模型研究

农业节水背景下,对泾惠渠灌区参考作物滕发量预报方法进行研究,选用Hargreaves-Samani公式作为预报模型,运用中国气象数据网泾河站2008年~2020年13个年份的气象数据进行SPSS参数反演,并采用2022年的实测气象数据进行验证,表明适合泾惠渠灌区的Hargreaves-Samani模型参数为C=0.00122、a=14.19、m=0.259。通过验证,83.2%验证值相对误差在20%以内,同时表明Hargreaves-Samani模型进行参考作物滕发量预报时,呈现“夏季>春季>秋季>冬季”的精度分布规律,可为灌区灌溉预报和智慧水利发展提供实用的理论依据。

黄河流域河套灌区农业面源污染模拟的难点与重点分析

黄河流域河套灌区农业面源污染问题突出,使用模型模拟是对河套灌区农业面源精准溯源、准确预测、评估治理措施治理效果和生态环境影响的有效途径,也是全面应用“监测-溯源-核算-治理-管理”农业面源污染全链条防控技术体系的关键核心步骤.经梳理发现,目前河套灌区农业面源污染模型由于缺乏对“源-汇”关系的精准表述和输移转化机制的阐明,导致存在一定的“假拟合”现象,致使后续使用模型模拟得到的结论存在较大的误差和不确定性,其结果在溯源、核算、评估等方面均无法完全成为具有实际指导意义的工具;除此之外,目前河套灌区现有的水文水质数据监测网络一定程度上难以满足日益增长的农业面源模型建立、率定和验证的需要,因此率定与模拟的结果很难具有更高的时空分辨率,导致对月尺度以下发生的面源污染行为和相应的环境危害评估与实际情况具有较大偏差.因此,建议建立流域层面农业面源污染监测网和数据分享平台以获取来自河套灌区具有更高时空精度的实测数据,并通过实地实验的方式阐明在河套灌区这一特殊“农业-环境”系统中面源污染物的输移转化机制,并在此基础上开发新的可以复现并模拟该机制的机理-大数据耦合模型来为区域内的科学研究与政策决定提供帮助.

交口灌区农业水土资源承载力评价及障碍因子诊断

【目的】评价交口灌区农业水土资源承载力及其障碍因子。【方法】以交口灌区为研究对象,构建包括水土资源、社会、经济、生态环境4个准则层的水土资源承载力评价指标体系,采用组合赋权的TOPSIS模型对交口灌区水土资源承载力进行综合评价,采用障碍度模型诊断制约灌区农业水土资源承载力的主要障碍因子。【结果】2016—2020年,交口灌区水土资源承载力呈稳步提升态势,各区、县的水土资源承载力差距逐渐缩小;灌区不同区、县的水土资源承载力水平差异显著,灌区北部承载力水平高于灌区南部,各区、县承载力指数介于0.257~0.621;水土资源和生态环境系统中的单位耕地农药施用量、水土资源匹配系数、单位耕地施肥量、垦殖率、生态环境用水率、水资源开发利用率是制约交口灌区水土资源承载力提升的主要障碍因子。【结论】水土资源和生态环境是影响灌区水土资源承载力的关键要素,灌区应以可持续发展理论为导向,注重农业发展与生态保护并重,综合提升灌区承载力。

基于PSR模型的城市河流湿地生态健康评价——以苏州市姑苏区为例

城市河流湿地的生态健康是城市生态可持续的重要基础。本研究以苏州市姑苏区河流湿地为研究对象,运用层次分析法与模糊综合评价法评价其河流湿地健康状况。结果表明:苏州市姑苏区河流湿地的生态健康状况处于“中等”等级,接近“亚健康”状态;准则层的排序权重为状态层指标>压力层指标>响应层指标,说明状态层指标能直观反映河流湿地的健康状态,其状态层的综合健康指数为0.658;各河段健康状态与其所对应的城市流域所承受的压力存在着密切联系,城市的建设强度和植被覆盖率因素对姑苏区河流湿地的健康状态具有显著影响。

基于供水量的两级渠系优化配水模型

【目的】基于灌区实际供水量构建两级渠系优化配水模型,提供各用水单元的配水量、配水流量、配水时间。【方法】本文分2种情形构建模型,情形1:非充分灌溉,作物某生育时期内供水无法满足需水,模型首先通过水资源配置确定每个用水户的分配水量,再通过渠系优化配水模型确定每条渠道的配水流量和配水时间;情形2:充分灌溉,供水能够满足需水,根据配置系数确定各渠道配水的优先次序,再确定配水流量和配水时间。【结果】将模型运用到山东省簸箕李灌区,验证模型的适用性,结果表明本模型能够根据灌区的供水量提供水资源配置方案和渠系配水方案。供水充足时,模型根据配置系数确定配水次序;供水不足时,模型根据分配系数确定水资源分配量。情形1和情形2支渠的配水流量分别在流量上限的0.8倍与0.75倍以上,做到了大流量配水;2种情形的配水周期分别为10.90、17.84 d,缩短了灌溉周期。【结论】本文建立的模型能够依据供水量首先提供水资源分配方案或配置次序,再以此为基础,提供配水方案,即配水流量、配水开始时间、配水结束时间,从而指导灌区的配水工作。

遥感蒸散发驱动HYDRUS-RS模型模拟剖面土壤含水率

【目的】提出一种物理机制明确、具有区域尺度模拟潜力且模拟精度较高的剖面土壤体积含水率(土壤含水率)模拟模型,评估北京大兴区夏玉米生育期不同土层土壤含水率模拟精度。【方法】利用MODIS数据和地表能量平衡系统(SEBS)模型反演大兴区蒸散发(ET),将其拆分为土壤蒸发(E)和植株蒸腾(T),驱动HYDRUS-1D模型中的源汇项,基于地理信息系统(GIS)平台构建HYDRUS-RS模型模拟剖面土壤含水率,并在2018年夏玉米生育期得到验证。【结果】SEBS模型中的R_n模拟效果最好,决定系数(R2)、偏差(Bias)、均方根误差(RMSE)分别为0.81、11W/m2、54.8W/m2;2018年大兴区夏玉米生育期逐日ET主要介于3~6mm/d,土壤含水率监测样点的ET不尽相同,但变化规律相似;在夏玉米生育期,HYDRUS-RS模型模拟的40~60cm土壤含水率精度最高,Bias为0.2%,RMSE为2.1%,R2为0.80。【结论】HYDRUS-RS模型物理机制明确、具有区域尺度模拟潜力,40~60cm土层土壤含水率模拟精度最高。

为什么国家严控撤县设区:基于粮食安全的新解释

撤县设区是我国推进新型城镇化建设的重要行政区划调整政策。但2021年以来,国家多次表态要严控撤县设区。将撤县设区政策视为准自然实验,基于2000—2019年县域经济社会数据,运用多期DID、PSM-DID、CMP模型、中介效应模型等分析了撤县设区政策对粮食生产和粮食安全的影响及作用机制,从粮食安全视角对国家严控撤县设区的合理性进行了论证。研究发现:首先,撤县设区政策不利于粮食生产和粮食安全,这一结论在更换回归模型、更换被解释变量、调整样本量等检验后仍然稳健,而且这种负面影响存在长期性;其次,撤县设区政策通过农业生产要素重新配置和“政府注意力”转移两个方面对粮食安全产生负面影响;最后,这种负面影响还存在地区异质性,撤县设区对非粮食生产核心区的负面影响更加显著,导致粮食安全责任进一步失衡。建议谨慎推进撤县设区,平衡不同省份粮食安全责任,有序推进县域粮食综合生产能力提升。

基于改进潜能模型的城市公园绿地可达性评价与优化布局研究——以重庆市江津区为例

城市公园绿地空间布局因城市的自然条件和社会经济条件不同而具有差异性.当前国内外研究多聚焦发达地区和大城市,而小城市和典型城市的公园绿地可达性研究鲜见,且在案例代表性和数据精度方面还有一定的局限性.选择西南山地类型的重庆市江津区中心城区为案例,以居民小区出入口与公园绿地出入口为研究主体,构建改进潜能模型和网络分析方法,揭示其空间特征和存在问题,参考位置分配模型与调研结果,得出优化布局方案并检验.结果表明,江津区中心城区城市公园绿地布局与服务水平空间差异明显.提出拟新建7个游园与5个社区公园,并将部分公园绿地进行合并扩建或新增出入口.

河南围山城金银矿集区三维地质建模与成矿预测

三维建模与成矿预测已成为当前国内外十分流行且较成熟的技术方法。通过研究银洞坡金矿和破山银矿成矿地质特征,对围山城矿集区开展三维可视化模型构建及深部成矿预测。利用82条地质剖面建立了地质体(地层、岩体、矿体)、构造模型,利用1∶5万重磁数据和63条电测深数据建立了密度、磁化率、电阻率等地球物理模型,利用52条岩石剖面、614个钻孔、117个探槽、56个浅井及94个平硐数据建立了地球化学模型,实现了地、物、化数据的综合集成。以“三位一体”找矿预测理论为指导,建立了研究区岩浆热液型Au、Ag矿床三维定量预测模型,确定了Au、Ag矿床成矿有利信息变量;采用证据权法提取了预测变量的权重值和相关程度,选择合适的变量进行成矿预测,利用C-V分形确定阈值,圈定了6个找矿靶区,选择新庄预测靶区(A 1)进行钻孔验证,发现金矿体6条,充分证明了利用证据权法进行三维成矿预测具有可行性与科学性,圈定的靶区对矿山进行深边部隐伏矿体找矿具有重要的实践意义。