Due to diminishing demographic dividend characterized by a falling workingage population and rising dependency ratio, China's long-term potential growth rates will keep declining, likely to be a mere 6.6% during t...Due to diminishing demographic dividend characterized by a falling workingage population and rising dependency ratio, China's long-term potential growth rates will keep declining, likely to be a mere 6.6% during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period(2016-2020). China's economic growth sustainability hinges upon its transition from the previous dependence on demographic dividend to the future reform dividend. In the growth accounting equation, we have simulated various reform initiatives and arrived at the following findings. First, although both the labor participation rate and TFP can increase China's potential growth rate, the former will only achieve a short-term growth effect, which will diminish in the long run. By contrast, the growth effect of TFP demonstrates the tendency of continuous increase. This further indicates that China's economic growth will increasingly rely on TFP improvement instead of traditional factor input. Second, different from the diminishing growth effect of enrolment rate, training may play a pivotal role in human capital development to significantly enhance potential growth rates. Third, if all reform initiatives can achieve their expected effects, integrated reform dividends may reach one or two percentage points of China's potential growth rate.展开更多
This paper considers a consumption and investment decision problem with a higher interest rate for borrowing as well as the dividend rate.Wealth is divided into a riskless asset and risky asset with logrithmic Brownia...This paper considers a consumption and investment decision problem with a higher interest rate for borrowing as well as the dividend rate.Wealth is divided into a riskless asset and risky asset with logrithmic Brownian motion price fluctuations.The stochastic control problem of maximizating expected utility from terminal wealth and consumption is studied.Equivalent conditions for optimality are obtained.By using duality methods,the existence of optimal portfolio consumption is proved,and the explicit solutions leading to feedback formulae are derived for deteministic coefficients.展开更多
基金the National Social Sciences Foundation Program "A Study on the Effects of Changing Demographic Structure on China's Economic Deceleration and Countermeasures"
文摘Due to diminishing demographic dividend characterized by a falling workingage population and rising dependency ratio, China's long-term potential growth rates will keep declining, likely to be a mere 6.6% during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period(2016-2020). China's economic growth sustainability hinges upon its transition from the previous dependence on demographic dividend to the future reform dividend. In the growth accounting equation, we have simulated various reform initiatives and arrived at the following findings. First, although both the labor participation rate and TFP can increase China's potential growth rate, the former will only achieve a short-term growth effect, which will diminish in the long run. By contrast, the growth effect of TFP demonstrates the tendency of continuous increase. This further indicates that China's economic growth will increasingly rely on TFP improvement instead of traditional factor input. Second, different from the diminishing growth effect of enrolment rate, training may play a pivotal role in human capital development to significantly enhance potential growth rates. Third, if all reform initiatives can achieve their expected effects, integrated reform dividends may reach one or two percentage points of China's potential growth rate.
文摘This paper considers a consumption and investment decision problem with a higher interest rate for borrowing as well as the dividend rate.Wealth is divided into a riskless asset and risky asset with logrithmic Brownian motion price fluctuations.The stochastic control problem of maximizating expected utility from terminal wealth and consumption is studied.Equivalent conditions for optimality are obtained.By using duality methods,the existence of optimal portfolio consumption is proved,and the explicit solutions leading to feedback formulae are derived for deteministic coefficients.
