Interrupted Time Series Analysis of Military and Civilian Regimes in Nigeria: A Statistical Evidence from Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Governments influence the economy by changing the level and types of taxes, the extent and composition of spending, and the degree and form of borrowing. Governments directly and indirectly influence the way resources are used in the economy. Higher taxes, fees, and greater regulations can stymie businesses or entire industries and the resulting impact is reflected on the country’s economy status (strong or weak). The growth rate of GDP is often used as an indicator of the general health of the economy. In broad terms, an increase in real GDP is interpreted as a sign that the economy is doing well. So it is important to study and pay more attention to country’s GDP growth rate. In this paper, an intervention analysis approach was applied to Nigeria GDP data in order to evaluate the performances of military and civilian rules in the country. Data on Nigeria GDP were collected and subjected to interrupted (intervention) time series model. Based on the Alkaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and sigma2 values, the interrupted time series model ARIMA (1, 1, 0) with exogenous variables (per capita per capita GDP, intervention, year and yearAfter) was identified as the best model amongst other competing models. It was observed that the intervention (civilian rule) was significant at the 10% level of significance in increasing the Nigeria GDP by 10B US$ on the average since 2005 till 2021 while controlling for the effects of other determinants. Also, the ARIMA (1, 1, 0) forecasts indicate that the Nigeria GDP will continue increasing during the civilian rule. As a result, changing from military rule to civilian rule in Nigeria significantly increased the GDP of the country.

Interrupted Time Series Analysis of Military and Civilian Regimes in Nigeria: A Statistical Evidence from Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Governments influence the economy by changing the level and types of taxes, the extent and composition of spending, and the degree and form of borrowing. Governments directly and indirectly influence the way resources are used in the economy. Higher taxes, fees, and greater regulations can stymie businesses or entire industries and the resulting impact is reflected on the country’s economy status (strong or weak). The growth rate of GDP is often used as an indicator of the general health of the economy. In broad terms, an increase in real GDP is interpreted as a sign that the economy is doing well. So it is important to study and pay more attention to country’s GDP growth rate. In this paper, an intervention analysis approach was applied to Nigeria GDP data in order to evaluate the performances of military and civilian rules in the country. Data on Nigeria GDP were collected and subjected to interrupted (intervention) time series model. Based on the Alkaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and sigma2 values, the interrupted time series model ARIMA (1, 1, 0) with exogenous variables (per capita per capita GDP, intervention, year and yearAfter) was identified as the best model amongst other competing models. It was observed that the intervention (civilian rule) was significant at the 10% level of significance in increasing the Nigeria GDP by 10B US$ on the average since 2005 till 2021 while controlling for the effects of other determinants. Also, the ARIMA (1, 1, 0) forecasts indicate that the Nigeria GDP will continue increasing during the civilian rule. As a result, changing from military rule to civilian rule in Nigeria significantly increased the GDP of the country.

Analysis of radiation diffusion of COVID-19 driven by social attributes

This paper first estimated the infectious capacity of COVID-19 based on the time series evolution data of confirmed cases in multiple countries. Then, a method to infer the cross-regional spread speed of COVID-19 was introduced in this paper, which took the gross domestic product(GDP) of each region as one of the factors that affect the spread speed of COVID-19 and studied the relationship between the GDP and the infection density of each region(China's Mainland, the United States, and EU countries). In addition, the geographic distance between regions was also considered in this method and the effect of geographic distance on the spread speed of COVID-19 was studied. Studies have shown that the probability of mutual infection of these two regions decreases with increasing geographic distance. Therefore, this paper proposed an epidemic disease spread index based on GDP and geographic distance to quantify the spread speed of COVID-19 in a region. The analysis results showed a strong correlation between the epidemic disease spread index in a region and the number of confirmed cases. This finding provides reasonable suggestions for the control of epidemics. Strengthening the control measures in regions with higher epidemic disease spread index can effectively control the spread of epidemics.

Study on the Influence of the Coordinated Development of Resident Income and GDP on Local Economic Development:Take Shandong Province as an Example

With the rapid development of China’s economy,the coordinated development of resident income and GDP has become an important indicator to measure local economic development.How to realize the synergistic growth of the two in the new era is of great significance for promoting the sustainable development of the local economy.Based on the theory of the coordinated development of resident income and GDP,this paper will take Shandong Province as an example to analyze the interaction between resident income growth and GDP,find out the influencing factors that restrict the coordinated development of resident income and GDP,and explore the impact of the coordinated development of resident income and GDP on local economic development.Finally,relevant policies will be studied.How to effectively increase residents’income,promote the sustainable and healthy development of the local economy,and put forward relevant suggestions to promote the coordinated development of residents’income and GDP.

Earthquake loss estimation by using Gross Domestic Product and population data

In the traditional method of earthquake loss estimation, all the social wealthes are classified according to their structural type and occupational use. Inventory data is collected and the total loss is estimated from each facility class separately. For many regions of the world, however, the vast amount of data required by this method is difficult or impossible to obtain. The traditional method is also unable to estimate quickly the loss from an unexpected disaster earthquake. It is difficult to give the necessary risk information to help the government to rescue and relief the earthquake disaster. This paper proposes a simple estimation method of earthquake loss based on macroscopic economical index of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and population distribution data. A preliminary nonlinear relation among hazard loss, seismic intensity and social wealth was developed by means of some earthquake disaster records during 1980～1995. This method was applied to analyze several assumed earthquakes. The preliminary analysis results show that the new method is effective and reasonable for quick assessment of earthquake loss.

Labour Productivity and the Chaotic Economic Growth Model： G7

Chaos theory is used to prove that erratic and chaotic fluctuations can indeed arise in completely deterministic models. Chaos theory reveals structure in aperiodic, dynamic systems. The number of nonlinear business cycle models use chaos theory to explain complex motion of the economy. Almost three years after the crisis, the G7 countries continue to be challenged with economic volatility. The global economy has slowed. Growth in the United States has weakened. In Europe, economic instability is generated by the financial and economic imbalances. Europe is gripped with financial strains from the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area periphery. How these G7 economies confront their fiscal challenges will profoundly affect their economic stability. The basic aim of this paper is to provide a relatively simple chaotic economic growth model that is capable of generating stable equilibria, cycles, or chaos. This paper looks in more detail at the GDP growth stability issues in each of the G7 countries in the period 1990-2012 （Retrieved from http：//www, imf.org）. A key hypothesis of this work is based on the idea that the coefficient π =[p（s_p-i-n/pb-p_mb_m）] plays a crucial role in explaining local stability of the gross domestic product growth, where, p---the coefficient of labour productivity; p.,--the coefficient of the marginal labour productivity, sp-private saving rate;i--investment rate; b-percent of the gross domestic product which belongs to budget deficit; bm-marginal budget deficit coefficient; n-net capital outflow rate.

COVID-19 mortality and gross domestic product loss:A wake-up call for government leaders

Government leaders have struggled to reduce the infection and deaths due to coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)as well as to keep the economy and businesses open.There is a large variation of mortality and damage to economy among countries.One possible cause leading to the large variation is the manner in which countries have delt with COVID-19.Some countries or regions such as China,New Zealand,and Taiwan,acted quickly and aggressively by implementing border closures,lockdown,school closures,mass testing,etc.On the other hand,many European countries,United States,and Brazil delayed their decisions to implement these restrictions and measures.No study has assessed the correlation between gross domestic product(GDP)and COVID-19 mortality.In the present study,there was a negative correlation between GDP and COVID-19 mortality suggesting that countries that failed to control the virus(larger COVID-19 mortality)would see a larger decline in GDP.Governmental leaders should act fast and aggressively when making decisions because data shows that countries who have run after two hares have caught neither.Furthermore,citizens of each country need to do their own part by following guidelines and practicing social distancing and mask wearing,which are considered the most effective,easiest,and cheapest measures that can be taken,so that repeated lockdowns can be avoided.

The Impact of Trade Deficits and the Burden of Crisis Oriented Economy on the Livelihoods of Nepali People

29,164,578 people are living in Nepal.Out of them,48.96%are men and 51.04%are women.The growth rate of the population is 0.93%annually.However,216,957 individuals had been abroad for employment,education or other reasons.It has developed an addiction to imported products using remittances.The government delays spending the money allotted for capital improvements.The debt incurred by loans received from donors exceeds between 20 trillion and 80 billion of Nepal’s entire yearly budget.Based on statistics from Nepal Rastra Bank fiscal years 2021/2022,export and import contributions to overall Nepal’s foreign commerce were 8.40%and 91.60%,respectively.Due to the burden of debt and increasing trade deficit in the Nepalese economy,it has greatly affected the livelihood of the people.The increase in the prices of goods has made the lives of ordinary and low-income citizens very difficult.To reduce it,it is necessary to increase the production of indigenous products and promote their trade.Nepal needs to improve its ability to balance imports and exports.Economic dependency will reduce and the nation’s focus on self-sufficiency will increase if the market is extended by raising the output of locally produced items.There will be an increase in hazards as the state’s ability to function weakens.No nation can be entirely self-sufficient in the open global market of today by producing all the commodities and services it requires.Economic dependency will reduce and the nation’s focus on self-sufficiency will increase if the market is extended by raising the output of locally produced items.There will be an increase in hazards as the state’s ability to function weakens.

Fiscal Policy and Inflation in Nigeria

This paper empirically examined the impact of fiscal policy on inflation in Nigeria.Time series data on inflation,government revenue,government expenditure,and gross domestic product were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria(CBN).The aforementioned secondary data cover the period from 1981 to 2021.The Augmented Dickey Fuller(ADF)unit root test and Johansen co-integration test were used to testing for data stationarity and the existence or otherwise of co-integrating equations respectively.Thereafter,data were analyzed using Ordinary Least Square and Parsimonious Error Correction techniques.Findings from the study show that government expenditure and revenue both have a positive relationship with the rate of inflation,though the latter is not statistically significant.Also,there is a positive but insignificant relationship between inflation and gross domestic product.In line with the above findings,we,therefore,recommend that the Nigerian government at all levels(local,state,and federal)should be tactful in the use of fiscal policy tools to avoid triggering inflationary pressure and its negative multiplier effects on the welfare of its citizenry.

Demand for Money and Inflation in Ethiopia

One of the vital components of the macroeconomic model that helps policymaking is the demand for money function.Having reliable predictions on the money demand function helps in determining the optimum growth of money supply which is vital in controlling the inflation rate in the economy and also preventing monetary disturbances from affecting real output.In order to formulate and estimate the money demand function in Ethiopia,this study used quarterly data from 2000Q3 to 2021Q2 and employed the Ordinary Least Square method and Engle-Granger two-stage procedure for empirical analysis.The empirical result from the models indicates that,in the long run,all variables(real GDP,CPI inflation,real effective exchange rate,real interest rate and lagged real money balance)are significantly affecting the demand for money in Ethiopia.Whereas,the estimated coefficients of the short-run variable show that the real effective exchange rate,CPI inflation,and lagged real money balance are the main determinants of demand for money while the real GDP and real interest rate are insignificant.Another important finding is that absolute value of the coefficient of the error correction term implies that about 54.2%of the disequilibrium in real money demand is counter-balanced by short-run adjustment in each quarter.The study suggests that in conducting monetary policy,policymakers should consider not only the behavior of income and price but also the movement of exchange rates.The study also calls for appropriate formulation and estimation of the all-encompassing demand for money function that is capable of bringing stability to the growth of money coupled with sustainable economic growth.

Health disparities are associated with gastric cancer mortality-to-incidence ratios in 57 countries

AIM To evaluate the association between mortality-to-incidence ratios(MIRs) and health disparities.METHODS In this study, we used the GLOBOCAN 2012 database to obtain the cancer incidence and mortality data for 57 countries, and combined this information with the World Health Organization(WHO) rankings and total expenditures on health/gross domestic product(e/GDP). The associations between variables and MIRs were analyzed by linear regression analyses and the 57 countries were selected according to their data quality. RESULTS The more developed regions showed high gastric cancer incidence and mortality crude rates, but lower MIR values than the less developed regions(0.64 vs 0.80, respectively). Among six continents, Oceania had the lowest(0.60) and Africa had the highest(0.91) MIR. A good WHO ranking and a high e/GDP were significantly associated with low MIRs(P = 0.001 and P = 0.001, respectively).CONCLUSION The MIR variation for gastric cancer would predict regional health disparities.

Association between medical resources and the proportion of oldest-old in the Chinese population

The potential association between medical resources and the proportion of oldest-old(90 years of age and above)in the Chinese population was examined,and we found that the higher proportion of oldest-old was associated with the higher number of beds in hospitals and health centers.

DYNAMIC RESOURCE ALLOCATION SCHEME UNDER TRAFFIC CONDITION IN SATELLITE SYSTEMS

As the traffic distribution in China mainland is far from uniform, a new traffic model in China mainland is presented on the basis of per-capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and density of population. Based on this characteristic traffic model, a new Traffic Dependent Dynamic Channel Allocation and Reservation (TDDCAR) technique is proposed, the simulation model is built, and the strategies' performance is evaluated through computer simulation. The simulation results show that, compared to the conventional Fixed Channel Allocation (FCA), TDDCAR estimates the traffic conditions in every spot beam and frequently adjusts the traffic according to current traffic conditions. It has achieved a significant improvement in new call blocking probability, handover blocking probability, and fair index, particularly, in heavy traffic conditions. The building of traffic model in China mainland and the analysis of the simulation results has been a key foundation for the study of resource allocation schemes in the future.

Relationship between the Environment and Economic Growth in China via Exports: A Perspective of Ecological Impact (2000-2014)

China’s swift and substantial economic growth over the past 20 years has made the country one of the top industrial powers in the world, second only the United States. From the perspective of ecology and the impact on the environment produced by economic and industrial growth, the exports that have driven rapid growth have also resulted in an alarming level of environmental pollution in major Chinese cities. Research has shown that the Chinese government’s investment in bringing down pollution levels has been insufficient and ineffective. The monetary amount allocated for pollution reduction has barely reached 0.15% of the country’s GDP and has failed to meaningfully reverse the effects of industrialization, including increased exports and economic growth rates affecting China’s ecology. The present study investigated China’s ecological situation in terms of the industrial production that has generated its level of exports, with special focus on problems related to water, air, and solid waste. An econometric analysis was conducted to determine the relationship between the main variables. The exports and GDP (dependent variable), air pollution, water pollution, and industrial solid waste (independent variables) were provided by the Institute of Statistics and the Environment Institute of China for this study. The data was managed in Econometric Eviews 7.0 software and yielded an adjusted R2 of 96.09% (high correlation) with an interesting correlation between the exports and three independent variables;after subsequent variable analysis, we found that investments in water and industrial solid waste were not significant (i.e., that said investments have failed to solve the pollution problem). It is necessary to review the Chinese investment policy with special attention to these variables to appropriately respond to China’s ecological crisis.

Correlating the global increase in type 1 diabetes incidence across age groups with national economic prosperity: A systematic review

BACKGROUND The global epidemiology of type 1 diabetes(T1D)is not yet well known,as no precise data are available from many countries.T1D is,however,characterized by an important variation in incidences among countries and a dramatic increase of these incidences during the last decades,predominantly in younger children.In the United States and Europe,the increase has been associated with the gross domestic product(GDP)per capita.In our previous systematic review,geographical variation of incidence was correlated with socio-economic factors.AIM To investigate variation in the incidence of T1D in age categories and search to what extent these variations correlated with the GDP per capita.METHODS A systematic review was performed to retrieve information about the global incidence of T1D among those younger than 14 years of age.The study was carried out according to the PRISMA recommendations.For the analysis,the incidence was organized in the periods:1975-1999 and 2000-2017.We searched the incidence of T1D in the age-groups 0-4,5-9 and 10-14.We compared the incidences in countries for which information was available for the two periods.We obtained the GDP from the World Bank.We analysed the relationship between the incidence of T1D with the GDP in countries reporting data at the national level.RESULTS We retrieved information for 84 out of 194 countries around the world.We found a wide geographic variation in the incidence of T1D and a worldwide increase during the two periods.The largest contribution to this increase was observed in the youngest group of children with T1D,with a relative increase of almost double when comparing the two periods(P value=2.5×e-5).Twenty-six countries had information on the incidence of T1D at the national level for the two periods.There was a positive correlation between GDP and the incidence of T1D in both periods(Spearman correlation=0.52 from 1975-1999 and Spearman correlation=0.53 from 2000-2017).CONCLUSION The incidence increase was higher in the youngest group(0-4 years of age),and the highest incidences of T1D were found in wealthier countries.

Vertical Zonation of Horticultural Farming in the Alaknanda Basin of Garhwal Himalaya, India

Horticultural practice in the Himalayas has great importance not only for economic development but also for environmental restoration. In the entire Himalayan mountain system, from Jammu and Kashmir Himalaya to Assam Himalaya, the practice of horticulture is centuries old, which includes varieties of fruits along with availability of high quality and quantity. In terms of the Alaknanda Basin, which is centrally located in the Himalayan system, the practice of horticulture does not get commercial level; only it is cultivated domestically. The climatic conditions ranging from sub-tropical (low-lying river valleys) to alpine and frigid (highly elevated regions) are suited for varieties of fruit cultivation, yet the benefit of this could not be utilized by the residents who are working in the agricultural fields. Besides, less proportion of land is devoted for fruit cultivation along with domestic production of fruits. The varieties of fruit cultivated in the basin range from mango-guava-papaya, stone-net, citrus to apple at the different elevations. Along with the cultivated fruits, varieties of wild fruits are also found in the jungle. There are four climatic zones suitable for the production of various fruits as below:? Sub-tropical zone including the lower part of the Alaknanda, Pindar, Nandakini, and Mandakini rivers is suitable for mango, guava, and papaya; ? Sub-temperate zone in the middle basin of the Alaknanda, Pindar, Nandakini and Mandakini rivers is a good place for citrus fruits, particularly orange and lemon; ? Temperate zone occupying the Dauli, Vishnu Ganga, Upper Pinder, Nandakini and Mandakini rivers is highly productive for apple, nut and stone fruits; ? Alpine meadows in the highly elevated region are known as Bugyal famous for herb culture. Each of these zones has distinct physical features, environmental conditions and socio-economic identity for fruit cultivation. The present paper aims to discuss about the vertical zonation of the horticultural farming and its nature, in terms of development, in the Alaknada Basin.

Simulating deforestation of Nepal by area production model

Based on the growth rates of population, Gross Domestic Products (GDP) and agriculture productivity, the areas of deforestation were predicted in Jutp ani village, Chitwan district, Nepal by Area Production Model (APM). Through the APM simulation in this study, all of forestland will be transferred into agricu ltural land in 2030 at the rate of 24% per year on the current productivity. And if the productivity of subsistence food crop is assumed to increase at the rate of 1%, the productivity of market crop and export crop increase at the rate of 2% annually, deforestation rate will decrease to 17% per year, but only 124 hm2 forest land will be left till 2038. The agriculture productivity is a very impor tant factor for the deforestation, so intensification of agriculture management is more important.