Seasonal influence of freshwater discharge on spatio-temporal variations in primary productivity, sea surface temperature, and euphotic zone depth in the northern Bay of Bengal

Ocean productivity is the foundation of marine food web,which continuously removes atmospheric carbon dioxide and supports life at sea and on land.Spatio-temporal variability of net primary productivity(NPP),sea surface temperature(SST),sea surface salinity(SSS),mixed layer depth(MLD),and euphotic zone depth(EZD) in the northern B ay of Bengal(BoB) during three monsoon seasons were examined in this study based on remote sensing data for the period 2005 to 2020.To compare the NPP distribution between the coastal zones and open BoB,the study area was divided into five zones(Z1-Z5).Results suggest that most productive zones Z2 and Zl are located at the head bay area and are directly influenced by freshwater discharge together with riverine sediment and nutrient loads.Across Z1-Z5,the NPP ranges from 5 315.38 mg/(m^(2)·d) to 346.7 mg/(m^(2)·d)(carbon,since then the same).The highest monthly average NPP of 5 315.38 mg/(m^(2)·d) in February and 5 039.36 mg/(m^(2)·d) in June were observed from Z2,while the lowest monthly average of 346.72 mg/(m^(2)·d) was observed in March from Z4,which is an oceanic zone.EZD values vary from 6-154 m for the study area,and it has an inverse correlation with NPP concentration.EZD is deeper during the summer season and shallower during the wintertime,with a corresponding increase in productivity.Throughout the year,monthly SST shows slight fluctuation for the entire study area,and statistical analysis shows a significant correlation among NPP,and EZD,overall positive between NPP and MLD,whereas no significant correlation among SSS,and SST for the northern BoB.Long-term trends in SST and productivity were significantly po sitive in head bay zones but negatively productive in the open ocean.The findings in this study on the distribution of NPP,SST,SSS,MLD,and EZD and their seasonal variability in five different zones of BoB can be used to further improve the management of marine resources and overall environmental condition in response to climate changes in BoB as they are of utmost relevance to the fisheries for the three bordering countries.

Effects of Natural Processes on Sea Level Change along the West African Coastline

Coastal hazards induced by meteo-marine forcing are exacerbated by sea level change along the West African coastline. Changes in sea level are induced by ocean processes such as ocean heat content and river discharge. However, although these processes control largely change in sea level, they remain poorly understood. This study analyzes changes in ocean heat content, river discharge, and sea level and establishes an interconnection between these parameters using several statistical methods over the 1993-2021 period. Results showed a significant correlation between sea level and ocean heat content at 2000 m depth. The yearly minimum value appears in July from Cote d’Ivoire to Benin, whilst this value appears in June in Nigeria. The temporal variability of ocean heat content, river discharge and sea level along the West African coastline exhibits three or four periods interrupted by some breakpoints with unequal duration. The results indicate that the 1993-2000 period was dominated by an increasing ocean heat content along the coastline, while the period after the 2000s exhibits mostly a decreasing trend. Positive and negative trends characterized river discharge and sea level along this coastline. The result of multiple linear regression between sea level, river discharge and ocean heat content is a good approximation of sea level trend along the West African coastline. The results of this study could be used to predict future sea level trends along the coast.

The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Roadway Design and Evacuation Routes in Delaware

As the global temperature continues to increase, the sea level continues to rise at a rapid rate that has never been seen before. This becomes an issue for many facets of life but one of the most impacted is the transportation infrastructure. Many people living in low elevation coastal areas can become trapped by flooding with no way in or out. With Delaware being a coastal state, this would affect a large portion of the population and will have detrimental effects over time if nothing is done to combat sea level rise. The issue with sea level rise in transportation is that once the roads become flooded, they become virtually unusable and detour routes would be needed. If all the roads in a coastal area were to be affected by sea level rise, the options for detours would become limited. This article looks at direct solutions to combat sea level rise and indirect solutions that would specifically help transportation infrastructure and evacuation routes in Delaware. There is not one solution that can fix every problem, so many solutions are laid out to see what is applicable to each affected area. Some solutions include defense structures that would be put close to the coast, raising the elevation of vulnerable roads throughout the state and including pumping stations to drain the water on the surface of the road. With an understanding of all these solutions around the world, the ultimate conclusion came in the form of a six-step plan that Delaware should take in order to best design against sea level rise in these coastal areas.

Improving the understanding of the influencing factors on sea level based on wavelet coherence and partial wavelet coherence

Relationship between sea level change and a single climate indicator has been widely discussed.However,few studies focused on the relationship between monthly mean sea level(MMSL)and several key impact factors,including CO_(2) concentration,sea ice area,and sunspots,on various time scales.In addition,research on the independent relationship between climate factors and sea level on various time scales is lacking,especially when the dependence of climate factors on Nino 3.4 is excluded.Based on this,we use wavelet coherence(WC)and partial wavelet coherence(PWC)to establish a relationship between MMSL and its influencing factors.The WC results show that the influence of climate indices on MMSL has strong regional characteristics.The significant correlation between Southern Hemisphere sea ice area and MMSL is opposite to that between Northern Hemisphere sea ice area and MMSL.The PWC results show that after removing the influence of Nino 3.4,the significant coherent regions of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO),Dipole Mode Index(DMI),Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO),and Southern Oscillation Index(SOI)decrease to varying degrees on different time scales in different regions,demonstrating the influence of Nino 3.4.Our work emphasizes the interrelationship and independent relationship between MMSL and its influencing factors on various time scales and the use of PWC and WC to describe this relationship.The study has an important reference significance for selecting the best predictors of sea level change or climate systems.

Limited Sea Surface Temperature Cooling Due to the Barrier Layer Promoting Super Typhoon Mangkhut(2018)

This study investigates the impact of the salinity barrier layer(BL)on the upper ocean response to Super Typhoon Mangkhut(2018)in the western North Pacific.After the passage of Mangkhut,a noticeable increase(~0.6 psu)in sea surface salinity and a weak decrease(<1℃)in sea surface temperature(SST)were observed on the right side of the typhoon track.Mangkhut-induced SST change can be divided into the three stages,corresponding to the variations in BL thickness and SST before,during,and after the passage of Mangkhut.During the pre-typhoon stage,SST slightly warmed due to the entrainment of BL warm water,which suppressed the cooling induced by surface heat fluxes and horizontal advection.During the forced stage,SST cooling was controlled by entrainment,and the preexisting BL reduced the total cooling by 0.89℃ d-1,thus significantly weakening the overall SST cooling induced by Mangkhut.During the relaxation stage,the SST cooling was primarily caused by the entrainment.Our results indicate that a preexisting BL can limit typhoon-induced SST cooling by suppressing the entrainment of cold thermocline water,which contributed to Mangkhut becoming the strongest typhoon in 2018.

Monitoring absolute vertical land motions and absolute sea-level changes from GPS and tide gauges data over French Polynesia

In this study,we estimate the absolute vertical land motions at three tidal stations with collocated Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)receivers over French Polynesia during the period 2007-2020,and obtain,as ancillary results,estimates of the absolute changes in sea level at the same locations.To verify our processing approach to determining vertical motion,we first modeled vertical motion at the International GNSS Service(IGS)THTI station located in the capital island of Tahiti and compared our estimate with previous independent determinations,with a good agreement.We obtained the following estimates for the vertical land motions at the tide gauges:Tubuai island,Austral Archipelago-0.92±0.17 mm/yr,Vairao village,Tahiti Iti:-0.49±0.39 mm/yr,Rikitea,Gambier Archipelago-0.43±0.17 mm/yr.The absolute variations of the sea level are:Tubuai island,Austral Archipelago 5.25±0.60 mm/yr,Vairao village,Tahiti Iti:3.62±0.52 mm/yr,Rikitea,Gambier Archipelago 1.52±0.23 mm/yr.We discuss these absolute values in light of the values obtained from altimetric measurements and other means in French Polynesia.

Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Sea Level Rise and Tropical Cyclones in Dongzhaigang Mangroves,China

Mangroves play a pivotal role in tropical and subtropical coastal ecosystem,yet they are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change,particularly the accelerated global sea level rise(SLR)and stronger tropical cyclones(TCs).However,there is a lack of research addressing future simultaneous combined impacts of the slow-onset of SLR and rapid-onset of TCs on China's mangroves.In order to develop a comprehensive risk assessment method considering the superimposed effects of these two factors and analyze risk for mangroves in Dongzhaigang,Hainan Island,China,we used observational and climate model data to assess the risks to mangroves under low,intermediate,and very high greenhouse gas(GHG)emission scenarios(such as SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)in 2030,2050,and 2100,and compiled a risk assessment scheme for mangroves in Dongzhaigang,China.The results showed that the combined risks from SLR and TCs will continue to rise;however,SLRs will increase in intensity,and TCs will decrease.The comprehensive risk of the Dongzhaigang mangroves posed by climate change will remain low under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios by 2030,but it will increase substantially by 2100.While under SSP5-8.5 scenario,the risks to mangroves in Dongzhaigang are projected to increase considerably by 2050,and approximately 68.8%of mangroves will be at very high risk by 2100.The risk to the Dongzhaigang mangroves is not only influenced by the hazards but also closely linked to their exposure and vulnerability.We therefore propose climate resilience developmental responses for mangroves to address the effects of climate change.This study for the combined impact of TCs and SLR on mangroves in Dongzhaigang,China can enrich the method system of mangrove risk assessment and provide references for scientific management.

Exploring Variability in Sea Level at a Tide Gauge Station through Control Charts

Monitoring temporal changes in sea level is important in assessing coastal risk.Sea level anomalies at a tide gauge station,if kinematically conceived,include systematic variations such as trend,acceleration,periodic oscillations,and random disturbances.Among them,the non-stationary nature of the random sea level variations of known or unknown origin at coastal regions has been long recognized by the sea level community.This study proposes the analyses of subgroups of random residual statistics of a rigorously formulated kinematic model solution of tide gauge variations using X-bar and S control charts.The approach is demonstrated using Key West,Florida tide gauge records.The mean and standard errors of 5-year-long subgroups of the residuals revealed that sea level changes at this location have been progressively intensifying from 1913 to the present.Increasing oscillations in sea level at this locality may be attributed partly to the thermal expansion of seawater with increasing temperatures causing larger buoyancy-related sea level fluctuations as well as the intensification of atmospheric events including wind patterns and the impact of changes in inverted barometer effects that will alter coastal risk assessments for the future.

Spatio-temporal variation of depth to groundwater level and its driving factors in arid and semi-arid regions of India

Climate change and increasing anthropogenic activities,such as over-exploitation of groundwater,are exerting unavoidable stress on groundwater resources.This study investigated the spatio-temporal variation of depth to groundwater level(DGWL)and the impacts of climatic(precipitation,maximum temperature,and minimum temperature)and anthropogenic(gross district product(GDP),population,and net irrigated area(NIA))variables on DGWL during 1994-2020.The study considered DGWL in 113 observation wells and piezometers located in arid western plains(Barmer and Jodhpur districts)and semi-arid eastern plains(Jaipur,Ajmer,Dausa,and Tonk districts)of Rajasthan State,India.Statistical methods were employed to examine the annual and seasonal patterns of DGWL,and the generalized additive model(GAM)was used to determine the impacts of climatic and anthropogenic variables on DGWL.During 1994-2020,except for Barmer District,where the mean annual DGWL was almost constant(around 26.50 m),all other districts exhibited increase in DGWL,with Ajmer District experiencing the most increase.The results also revealed that 36 observation wells and piezometers showed a statistically significant annual increasing trend in DGWL and 34 observation wells and piezometers exhibited a statistically significant decreasing trend in DGWL.Similarly,32 observation wells and piezometers showed an statistically significant increasing trend and 37 observation wells and piezometers showed a statistically significant decreasing trend in winter;33 observation wells and piezometers indicated a statistically significant increasing trend and 34 had a statistically significant decreasing trend in post-monsoon;35 observation wells and piezometers exhibited a statistically significant increasing trend and 32 observation wells and piezometers showed a statistically significant decreasing trend in pre-monsoon;and 36 observation wells and piezometers reflected a statistically significant increasing trend and 30 observation wells and piezometers reflected a statistically significant decreasing trend in monsoon.Interestingly,most of the observation wells and piezometers with increasing trends of DGWL were located in Dausa and Jaipur districts.Furthermore,the GAM analysis revealed that climatic variables,such as precipitation,significantly affected DGWL in Barmer District,and DGWL in all other districts was influenced by anthropogenic variables,including GDP,NIA,and population.As a result,stringent regulations should be implemented to curb excessive groundwater extraction,manage agricultural water demand,initiate proactive aquifer recharge programs,and strengthen sustainable management in these water-scarce regions.

Organic Carbon Deposition on the Inner Shelf of the East China Sea Constrained by Sea Level and Climatic Changes Since the Last Deglaciation

The East China Sea(ECS),which is located in the transitional zone between land and ocean,is the main site for the burial of sedimentary organic carbon.Despite good constraints of the modern source to the sinking process of organic carbon,its fate in response to changes in climate and sea level since the last deglaciation remains poorly understood.We aim to fill this gap by presenting a high-resolution sedimentary record of core EC2005 to derive a better understanding of the evolution of the depositional environment and its control on the organic deposition since 17.3 kyr.Our results suggest that sedimentary organic carbon was deposited in a terrestrial environment before the seawater reached the study area around 13.1 kyr.This significant transition from a terrestrial environment to a marine environment is reflected by the decrease in TOC/TN and TOC/TS ratios,which is attributed to deglacial sea level rise.The sea level continued to rise until it reached its highstand at approximately 7.3 kyr when the mud depocenter was developed.Our results further indicate that the deposition of the sedimentary organic carbon could respond quickly to abrupt cold events,including the Heinrich stadial 1 and the Younger Dryas during the last deglaciation,as well as‘Bond events'during the Holocene.We propose that the rapid response of the organic deposition to those cold events in the northern hemisphere is linked to the East Asian winter monsoon.These new findings demonstrate that organic carbon deposition and burial on the inner shelf could effectively document sea level and climatic changes.

A new decomposition model of sea level variability for the sea level anomaly time series prediction

Rising sea level is of great significance to coastal societies;predicting sea level extent in coastal regions is critical.When carrying out predictions,the subsequences obtained using decomposition methods may exhibit a certain regularity and therefore can provide multidimensional information that can be used to improve prediction models.Traditional decomposition methods such as seasonal and trend decomposition using Loess(STL)focus mostly on the fluctuating trend of time series and ignore its impact on prediction.Methods in the signal decomposition domain,such as variational mode decomposition(VMD),have no physical significance.In response to the above problems,a new decomposition method for sea level anomaly time series prediction(DMSLAP)is proposed.With this method,the trend term in a time series can be isolated and the effects of abnormal sea level change behaviors can be attenuated.We decompose multiperiod characteristics using this method while maintaining the smoothness of the analyzed series.Satellite altimetry data from 1993 to 2020 are used in experiments conducted in the study area.The results are then compared with predictions obtained using existing decomposition methods such as the STL and VMD methods and time varying filtering based on empirical mode decomposition(TVF-EMD).The performance of DMSLAP combined with a prediction method resulted in optimal sea level anomaly(SLA)predictions,with a minimum root mean square error(RMSE)of 1.40 cm and a maximum determination coefficient(R^(2))of 0.93 during 2020.The DMSLAP method was more accurate when predicting 1-year data and 3-year data.The TVF-EMD and DMSLAP methods had comparable accuracies,and the periodic term decomposed by the DMSLAP method was more in line with the actual law than that derived using the TVF-EMD method.Thus,DMSLAP can decompose SLA time series better than existing methods and is an effective tool for obtaining short-term SLA prediction.

Retrieval of snow depth on Antarctic sea ice from the FY-3D MWRI data

The snow depth on sea ice is an extremely critical part of the cryosphere.Monitoring and understanding changes of snow depth on Antarctic sea ice is beneficial for research on sea ice and global climate change.The Microwave Radiation Imager(MWRI)sensor aboard the Chinese FengYun-3D(FY-3D)satellite has great potential for obtaining information of the spatial and temporal distribution of snow depth on the sea ice.By comparing in-situ snow depth measurements during the 35th Chinese Antarctic Research Expedition(CHINARE-35),we took advantage of the combination of multiple gradient ratio(GR(36V,10V)and GR(36V,18V))derived from the measured brightness temperature of FY-3D MWRI to estimate the snow depth.This method could simultaneously introduce the advantages of high and low GR in the snow depth retrieval model and perform well in both deep and shallow snow layers.Based on this,we constructed a novel model to retrieve the FY-3D MWRI snow depth on Antarctic sea ice.The new model validated by the ship-based observational snow depth data from CHINARE-35 and the snow depth measured by snow buoys from the Alfred Wegener Institute(AWI)suggest that the model proposed in this study performs better than traditional models,with root mean square deviations(RMSDs)of 8.59 cm and 7.71 cm,respectively.A comparison with the snow depth measured from Operation IceBridge(OIB)project indicates that FY-3D MWRI snow depth was more accurate than the released snow depth product from the U.S.National Snow and Ice Data Center(NSIDC)and the National Tibetan Plateau Data Center(NTPDC).The spatial distribution of the snow depth from FY-3D MWRI agrees basically with that from ICESat-2;this demonstrates its reliability for estimating Antarctic snow depth,and thus has great potential for understanding snow depth variations on Antarctic sea ice in the context of global climate change.

Prediction of the joint impacts of sea level rise and land development on distribution patterns of mangrove communities

Mangrove distribution along shorelines shows distinct zonation patterns;thus,different communities may face various influences from sea level rise(SLR)and land use.However,long-term change predictions are usually based only on the total extent of mangroves.Few studies have revealed how SLR and land development such as agriculture,aquaculture,and urbanization jointly affect different intertidal mangrove communities.This study proposed a novel framework combining SLAMM(Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model)and the CLUE-S(Conversion of Land Use and its Effect at Small regional extent)model to assess the potential impacts on upper and lower intertidal mangrove communities.Maoweihai in Guangxi,China,was selected as the study area and the potential impacts from the squeeze effect and mangrove expansion potential were evaluated.We established three scenarios combining SLR and land use patterns to predict mangrove coverage projections by 2070.The results showed that,under a single SLR driver,the upper intertidal mangroves would be more adaptive to rapid SLR than the lower intertidal mangroves.However,under the combined influence of the two drivers,the upper intertidal mangroves would experience larger squeeze effects than the lower intertidal mangroves,with up to 80.5%of suitable habitat lost.Moreover,the expansion potential of upper intertidal mangroves would be considerably more limited than that of lower intertidal mangroves.The length of the expandable habitat patch boundary of upper intertidal mangroves only reached 1.4–1.8 km,while that of the lower intertidal mangroves reached up to99.2–111.2 km.Further,we found that aquaculture ponds and cropland are the top two land development types that could occupy suitable habitat and restrict the mangrove expansion potential.Our results highlight that timely improvement of land use policies to create available landward accommodation space for mangrove migration is essential to maintain the coverage and diversity of mangrove communities under SLR.The proposed method can be a helpful tool for adaptive mangrove conservation and management under climate change.

Potential effects of sea level rise on the soil-atmosphere green-house gas emissions in Kandelia obovata mangrove forests

Mangrove forests are under the stress of sea level rise(SLR)which would affect mangrove soil biogeochemistry.Mangrove soils are important sources of soil-atmosphere greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions,including carbon dioxide(CO_(2)),methane(CH_(4))and nitrous oxide(N_(2)O).Understanding how SLR influences GHG emissions is critical for evaluating mangrove blue carbon capability.In this study,potential effects of SLR on the GHG emissions were quantified through static closed chamber technique among three sites under different intertidal elevations,representing tidal flooding situation of SLR values of 0 cm,40 cm and 80 cm,respectively.Compared with Site SLR 0 cm,annual CO_(2) and N_(2)O fluxes decreased by approximately 75.0%and 27.3%due to higher soil water content,lower salinity and soil nutrient environments at Site SLR 80 cm.However,CH_(4) fluxes increased by approximately 13.7%at Site SLR 40 cm and 8.8%at Site SLR 80 cm because of lower salinity,higher soil water content and soil pH.CO_(2)-equivalent fluxes were 396.61 g/(m^(2)·a),1423.29 g/(m^(2)·a)and 1420.21 g/(m^(2)·a)at Sites SLR 80 cm,SLR 40 cm and SLR 0 cm,respectively.From Site SLR 0 cm to Site SLR 80 cm,contribution rate of N_(2)O and CH_(4) increased by approximately 7.42%and 3.02%,while contribution rate of CO_(2) decreased by approximately 10.44%.The results indicated that warming potential of trace CH_(4) and N_(2)O was non-negligible with SLR.Potential effects of SLR on the mangrove blue carbon capability should warrant attention due to changes of all three greenhouse gas fluxes with SLR.

Evaluating the Influence of Sea Level Rise on Beel Kapalia’s Livelihood and Local Adaptation Strategies: Perspectives from the Local Community

Bangladesh is vulnerable to climate change-induced sea level rise due to its location and socioeconomic position. The study examines the Beel Kapalia region in polder no. 24 of the Monirampur upazila of Jessore district, Khulna division. To assess local attitudes on sea level rise-related permanent flooding, Kapalia, Monoharpur, Nehalpur, Balidaha, and Panchakori were polled. This flooding has disrupted residents’ lifestyles, making them vulnerable to increasing sea levels. Viability and adaptability were assessed using livelihood capitals. Participants’ thoughts and knowledge about their resilience in several livelihood factors were gathered using participatory rural appraisal (PRA) instruments and a questionnaire survey in the area. Major discoveries include the impact of permanent floods on Beel Kapalia’s livelihoods, vulnerability and resilience assessments in numerous villages, and community viewpoints on regional adaptation methods to mitigate these consequences. The study found that a sustained 30.5 cm inundation would reduce local human, natural, physical, financial, and social capital resilience to 69.6%, 30.7%, 69.1%, 68.9%, and 69.1%. A constant 61 cm inundation would lower resistance to 40.9%, 8.7%, 42.4%, 45.6%, and 43.8%. Residents believe they can weather a 30.5 cm inundation with local adaptation measures, but if the water level rises to 61 cm, they may be displaced.

Can a global mean sea-level rise reduce the Last Interglacial model-data mismatch in East Asia?

末次间冰期有着丰富的重建和模拟资料,为研究未来温暖气候提供了一个理想的参考.然而,关于末次间冰期的东亚气候,模拟与重建的结果间长期存在着不匹配的情况,模拟结果普遍较重建结果更为冷干。本研究利用挪威地球系统模式(NorESM1-F),探讨了在末次间冰期模拟试验中纳入全球平均海平面上升能否减少模式-数据的不匹配.该试验结果表明,海平面上升情况下东亚地区会产生一定的增温增湿效应,但不足以消除模式-数据不匹配.基于这些结果,作者探讨了其它可能造成不匹配的因素以供进一步研究.

Performance of CMIP6 models in simulating the dynamic sea level:Mean and interannual variance

本研究采用卫星测高数据与第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)海平面动力进行对比,重点针对40S-40N地区的动力海平面(DSL),评估了模式对其平均态与年际变率的综合模拟能力,结果表明,对于DSL平均态的模拟,模式与观测结果非常吻合,模式之间的差异较小.其中,副热带北大西洋是模拟偏差和模式间差异较为显著的区域,对于DSL年际变率的模拟,模式之间保持较高的一致性,但是,模式与观测结果存在明显差异,模式普遍低估了DSL的年际方差;其中,误差大值区域出现在副热带西边界流附近,模式分辨率会影响CMIP6对中小尺度海洋过程的重现能力,这可能是导致CMIP6历史模拟出现误差的原因之一.

Estimation of Peak Water Level in Pearl River Estuary under the Background of Sea Level Rise

[Objective] The study aimed to predict the peak water level in Pearl River Estuary under the background of sea level rise. [Method] The changing trends of peak water level at Denglongshan station and Hengmen station were analyzed firstly on the basis of regression models, and then sea level rise in Pearl River Estuary in 2050 was predicted to estimate the 1-in-50-year peak water level in the same year. [Result] Regression analyses showed that the increasing rate of peak water level over past years was 6.3 mm/a at Denglongshan station and 5.8 mm/a at Hengmen station. In addition, if sea level will rise by 20, 30 and 60 cm respectively in 2050, it was predicted that the 1-in-50-year peak water level will reach 3.04, 3.14 and 3.44 m at Denglongshan station, and 3.19, 3.29 and 3.59 m at Hengmen station separately. [Conclusion] The estimation of peak water level in Pearl River Estuary could provide theoretical references for water resources planning.

Assessing and Forecasting Saline Intrusion in theVietnamese Mekong Delta Under the Impact of Upstreamflow and Sea Level Rise

Saline intrusion is a hot issue and has always been of concern in the VMD(Vietnamese Mekong Delta),especially in the context of many changes of impact factors such as upstream flows and SLR(Sea Levels Rise).Vulnerability to changes in the upstream flows and SLR ismust-have reasons for updated and interpreted information.This information is used for exploiting of soil and water resources.MIKE 11 model was successfully applied to assess the saline intrusion.The study provided the picture of the saline intrusion in the dry season from January to May in the VMD in the existing situation(2015 and 2016)and the future(2030 and 2050)under the impact of flow at Kratie in various frequencies of 18%,50%and 85%based on the time series of 2001-2016,and SLR according to RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway)4.5 scenario of MONRE(Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment)of Vietnam issued in 2016.The results show that in the year 2015 the ASI(Saline Intrusion Area)in the VMD was relatively low due to moderate tidal level and high Kratie discharge(P=18%).The scenario like the situation in 2016 and in the future ASI increased significantly compared to the 2015 baseline scenario which shows that the VMD is very vulnerable to saline intrusion.Based on multivariate regression analysis,the study also presented the formulas for the relationship between the ASI of 0.25 g/L,2.5 g/L and 4.0 g/L thresholds and the impact factors such as the average discharge at Kratie and the maximum daily tidal level in East Coast during the dry season from January to May.With an adjusted R2 at 0.913-0.974,these formulas are believed to be reliable for predicting ASIs based on the Kratie flow and the East Coast tidal level.

Numerical modelling of the sea level under the actions of the tide and strong wind in the Bohai Sea

In this paper, the numerical modelling of the tidal level and current in the Bohai Sea was carried out with ADI method, by taking the sum of four main tidal components M2,S2K2,O1 as the open boundary condition. The calculated values were consistent with the predicted ones (the observed values in the case of calm) in the Tidal Table. On the basis of the modelling of the tide, the sea level and current fields under the effects of strong wind were simulated. The calculated results were also quite satisfactory.