Influences of Mixed Traffic Flow and Time Pressure on Mistake-Prone Driving Behaviors among Bus Drivers

Bus safety is a matter of great importance in many developing countries, with driving behaviors among bus drivers identified as a primary factor contributing to accidents. This concern is particularly amplified in mixed traffic flow (MTF) environments with time pressure (TP). However, there is a lack of sufficient research exploring the relationships among these factors. This study consists of two papers that aim to investigate the impact of MTF environments with TP on the driving behaviors of bus drivers. While the first paper focuses on violated driving behaviors, this particular paper delves into mistake-prone driving behaviors (MDB). To collect data on MDB, as well as perceptions of MTF and TP, a questionnaire survey was implemented among bus drivers. Factor analyses were employed to create new measurements for validating MDB in MTF environments. The study utilized partial correlation and linear regression analyses with the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method to explore the relationships between MDB and MTF/TP. The results revealed a modified scale for MDB. Two MTF factors and two TP factors were found to be significantly associated with MDB. A high presence of motorcycles and dangerous interactions among vehicles were not found to be associated with MDB among bus drivers. However, bus drivers who perceived motorcyclists as aggressive, considered road users’ traffic habits as unsafe, and perceived bus routes’ punctuality and organization as very strict were more likely to exhibit MDB. Moreover, the results from the three MDB predictive models demonstrated a positive impact of bus route organization on MDB among bus drivers. The study also examined various relationships between the socio-demographic characteristics of bus drivers and MDB. These findings are of practical significance in developing interventions aimed at reducing MDB among bus drivers operating in MTF environments with TP.

A new cellular automaton for signal controlled traffic flow based on driving behaviors

The complexity of signal controlled traffic largely stems from the various driving behaviors developed in response to the traffic signal. However, the existing models take a few driving behaviors into account and consequently the traffic dynamics has not been completely explored. Therefore, a new cellular automaton model, which incorporates the driving behaviors typically manifesting during the different stages when the vehicles are moving toward a traffic light, is proposed in this paper. Numerical simulations have demonstrated that the proposed model can produce the spontaneous traffic breakdown and the dissolution of the over-saturated traffic phenomena. Furthermore, the simulation results indicate that the slow-to-start behavior and the inch-forward behavior can foster the traffic breakdown. Particularly, it has been discovered that the over-saturated traffic can be revised to be an under-saturated state when the slow-down behavior is activated after the spontaneous breakdown. Finally, the contributions of the driving behaviors on the traffic breakdown have been examined.

Driving Behavior Shaping Model in Road Traffic System

In order to give a new way for modeling driving behavior, identifying road traffic accident causation and solving a variety of road traffic safety problems such as driving errors prevention and driving behavior analysis, a new driving behavior shaping model is proposed, which could be used to assess the degree of effect of driving error upon road traffic safety. Driver behavior shaping model based on driving reliability and safety analysis could be used to identify the road traffic accident causation, to supply data for driver's behavior training, to evaluate driving procedures, to human factor design of road traffic system.

Analysis of Phase Transition in Traffic Flow based on a New Model of Driving Decision

Different driving decisions will cause different processes of phase transition in traffic flow. To reveal the inner mechanism, this paper built a new cellular automaton （CA） model, based on the driving decision （DD）. In the DD model, a driver＇s decision is divided into three stages： decision-making, action, and result. The acceleration is taken as a decision variable and three core factors, i.e. distance between adjacent vehicles, their own velocity, and the preceding vehicle＇s velocity, are considered. Simulation results show that the DD model can simulate the synchronized flow effectively and describe the phase transition in traffic flow well. Further analyses illustrate that various density will cause the phase transition and the random probability will impact the process. Compared with the traditional NaSch model, the DD model considered the preceding vehicle＇s velocity, the deceleration limitation, and a safe distance, so it can depict closer to the driver preferences on pursuing safety, stability and fuel-saving and has strong theoretical innovation for future studies.

Video-based measurement and data analysis of traffic flow on urban expressways

A new video-based measurement is proposed to collect and investigate traffic flow parameters. The output of the measurement is velocity-headway distance data pairs. Because density can be directly acquired by the reciprocal of headway distance, the data pairs have the advantage of better simultaneity than those from common detectors. By now, over 33 000 pairs of data have been collected from two road sections in the cities of Shanghai and Zhengzhou. Through analyzing the video files recording traffic movements on urban expressways, the following issues are studied：laws of vehicle velocity changing with headway distance, proportions of di0erent driving behaviors in the traffic system, and characteristics of traffic flow in snowy days. The results show that the real road traffic is very complex, and factors such as location and climate need to be taken into consideration in the formation of traffic flow models.

A review of road safety evaluation methods based on driving behavior

Road traffic safety should be evaluated throughout the entire life-cycle of road design,operation,maintenance,and expansion construction.However,traditional methods for evaluating road traffic safety based on traffic accidents and conflict technology are limited by their inability to account for the complex environmental factors involved.To address this issue,a new road safety evaluation method has emerged that is based on driving behavior.Because drivers’behaviors may vary depending on the driving environment and their personal characteristics,evaluating road safety from the perspective of driver behavior has become a popular research topic.This paper analyzes current research trends and mainstream journals in the field of road safety evaluation of driving behavior.Additionally,it reviews the three most commonly used driving behavior data collection methods,and compares the advantages and disadvantages of each.The paper proposes the main application scenarios of road safety evaluation methods based on driving behavior,such as road design,evaluation of the effects of road appurtenances,and intelligent highways.Furthermore,the paper summarizes a driving behavior index system based on vehicle data,driver’s physiological and psychological data,and driver’s subjective questionnaire data.A comprehensive evaluation method based on the fusion of each index system is presented in detail.Finally,the paper points out current research problems and the future development direction of the road safety evaluation method based on driving behavior.

Dangerous Driving Behavior Recognition and Prevention Using an Autoregressive Time-Series Model

Time headway is an important index used in characterizing dangerous driving behaviors. This research focuses on the decreasing tendency of time headway and investigates its association with crash occurrence. An autoregressive（AR） time-series model is improved and adopted to describe the dynamic variations of average daily time headway. Based on the model, a simple approach for dangerous driving behavior recognition is proposed with the aim of significantly decreasing headway. The effectivity of the proposed approach is validated by means of empirical data collected from a medium-sized city in northern China. Finally, a practical early-warning strategy focused on both the remaining life and low headway is proposed to remind drivers to pay attention to their driving behaviors and the possible occurrence of crash-related risks.

Determining driver perceptions about distractions and modeling their effects on driving behavior at different age groups

This study was aimed at determining the driving distractions which are perceived most hazardous and determining the effects of these distractions and age on speed and headway. A questionnaire survey was done to find out the opinion of drivers related to the most hazardous distraction. 639 responses were collected in the survey which were used to determine the top-rated distractions for drivers in Bahrain. Roadside observations were taken to observe the speed, headway, age and type of distraction for the driver. Speed was observed for 48 drivers while headway was observed for 36 drivers along with other parameters. The most hazardous distractions, according to the participants of the questionnaire, are using mobile phones, handling children, and accidents or incidents on the road. Further, the results of the two-way analysis of variance(ANOVA) test and regression analysis demonstrated that using mobile phones and age have a significant effect on both speed and headway. Speed tends to decrease with distraction for all age groups while decreasing the headway for young and middle-aged drivers. The effect of distraction is higher than the effect of age on speed, as well as headway. Texting has the most significant effect among distractions on headway. It is hereby recommended that policymakers should focus on increasing awareness and stringent law enforcement related to handling mobile phones and children, especially for young and middle-aged drivers.

Modeling differential car-following behavior under normal and rainy conditions: A memory-based deep learning method with attention mechanism

In order to analyze and learn the difference in car-following behavior between normal and rainy days, we first collect car-following trajectory data of an urban elevated road on normal and rainy days by microwave radar and analyze the differences in speed, relative speed, acceleration, space headway, and time headway among data through statistics. Secondly, owing to the time-series characteristics of car-following data, we use the long short-term memory(LSTM) neural network optimized by attention mechanism(AM) and sparrow search algorithm(SSA) to learn the different car-following behaviors under different weather conditions and build corresponding models(ASL-Normal, ASL-Rain, where ASL stands for AM-SSA-LSTM), respectively. Finally, the simulation test shows that the mean square error(MSE) and reciprocal of time-to-collision(RTTC) of the ASL model are better than those of LSTM and intelligent diver model(IDM), which is closer to the real data. The ASL model can better learn different driving behaviors on normal and rainy days. However,it has a higher sensitivity to weather conditions from cross test on normal and rainy data-sets which need classification training or sample diversification processing. In the car-following platoon simulation, the stability performances of two models are excellent, which can describe the basic characteristics of traffic flow on normal and rainy days. Comparing with ASL-Rain model, the convergence time of ASL-Normal is shorter, reflecting that cautious driving behavior on rainy days will reduce traffic efficiency to a certain extent. However, ASL-Normal model produces a more severe and frequent traffic oscillation within a shorter period because of aggressive driving behavior on normal days.

Impact of countdown signals on traffic safety and efficiency:a review and proposal

Countdown signals for motorized vehicles,which are intended to ensure safety on the road and regulate motor vehicle speed limits at road intersections,are still considered a relatively novel concept.These signals have been adopted by only a few countries,and the number of cities that use them is limited.This review aims to summarize the effects of countdown signals on traffic safety and efficiency and to determine the consistency and differences of existing research propositions on the matter.Based on the review,considerable research presents evidently different conclusions in the areas of driver red-light running and traffic safety.Particularly,some studies propose that countdown signals reinforce traffic safety,whereas others consider that such signals adversely affect traffic safety.Meanwhile,related literature provides varying conclusions on the aspect of traffic efficiency for vehicle headway.At present,the number of studies conducted regarding the driving behaviors of motorists toward countdown-signalized intersections is insufficient.Accordingly,such inadequate diversity in research causes difficulty in completely assessing the benefits and disadvantages of countdown signals.In this paper,an important future research direction on microcosmic driving psychological and physiological data combined with macro-driving behavior is proposed.

The Effect of Self-Driving Car on Urban Traffic

Based on the idea of infinitesimal analysis, we establish the basic model of relation between speed and flow. Since putting a certain amount of self-driving car will affect the average speed of mixed traffic flow, we choose the proportion of self-driving car to be a variable, denoted by k. Based on the least square method, we find two critical values of k that are 38.63% and 68.26%. When k 38.63%, the self-driving cars have a negative influence to the traffic. When 38.63% < k < 68.26%, they have a positive influence to the traffic. When k > 68.26%, they have significant improvement to the traffic capacity of the road.

基于实车路试的高速公路减速标线运行效果研究

为探寻高速公路减速标线设置对小客车的纵向运行特性的影响,明确减速标线的减速效果,以G50沪渝高速重庆段的3处减速标线区段为对象,开展了实车驾驶试验,采集了自然驾驶状态下的车辆速度、加速度和轨迹等数据,对比分析了车辆经过3处减速标线区段时的速度整体特征、幅值分布和变化模式;同时分析了纵向减速度变化特征;根据速度与加速度的组合示意图和纵向减速标线设置区段内速度的最大降幅、起止点的速度差异性,评价了减速标线的实施效果。结果表明:由于道路线形条件不同,3处减速标线区段的车辆行驶速度整体特征和变化模式存在差异,其中弯坡组合路段车辆速度存在波动,分为“近匀速—减速—加速—稳定—加速”的五阶段变化模式;减速度中位值和85%位值分别为0.123 m/s^(2)、0.225 m/s^(2)、0.185 m/s^(2)和0.346 m/s^(2)、0.513 m/s^(2)、0.489 m/s^(2)。减速标线主要有两方面作用效果:能够使车辆运行车速显著降低,或能够抑制车辆速度增加的趋势。研究成果为高速公路减速标线有效性评价及安全改善提供了基础数据支持。

数据驱动的新能源公交车能耗预测

鉴于现有电动车能耗预测多基于实验室条件,存在结果过于理想化或预测准确度不足的问题。本文基于北京市51路公交车的实车运行数据,分析能耗影响因素,通过时钟循环编码优化时间信息、使用箱线图设置阈值以构造行驶工况、建立基于熵权法的驾驶行为评价体系对驾驶行为与工况状态进行辅助分析,最后,对聚类后的4类典型工况片段分别建立引入注意力机制的LSTM能耗预测模型,并将其与传统LSTM及LGBM等多种预测模型进行对比分析,验证结果表明引入注意力机制的LSTM预测模型性能显著高于其他模型。

高速公路小净距互通立交车辆纵向运行特性

为明确车辆在高速公路小净距互通立交的纵向运行特性,在G50沪渝高速公路重庆段的白杨沟立交和跑马坪立交,开展了38位被试的实车驾驶试验。利用车载仪器采集了自然驾驶状态下的车辆运行速度以及纵向加速度等参数,计算了速度极差、带宽以及聚集系数,分析了驾驶行为的约束性以及速度变化特征。提取了纵向加速度连续变化曲线的峰值,研究了纵向加速度的累积频率、概率分布特性以及特征百分位值。结果表明:在小净距区段,合流区与分流区相互重叠,车辆交织行为增多,车辆间干涉严重,速度极差较大,离散性较高;断面速度总体呈现偏态分布,小净距区段断面速度区间大于其它断面。纵向加速概率分布曲线总体呈现偏态分布,加速度负值分布区间大于正值分布区间;小净距区段交通环境相对更复杂,驾驶人操作更加谨慎,与常规净距立交相比,小净距立交纵向加速度平均值低0.28 m/s^(2)。汇入过程中,驾驶人对加速度的选择存在一定差异,偏向于较大的加速度正值(0.542 m/s^(2))与较低的加速度负值(-0.081 m/s^(2))。然而,驶出过程中,驾驶人对加速度的选择具有一定趋同性,加速度正值(0.300 m/s^(2))与负值(-0.350 m/s^(2))差异性小;男性驾驶人纵向操作频率高于女性,幅度低于女性,不同驾驶风格驾驶人纵向加速度变化趋势具有一定的趋同性。

驾驶行为分类方法及量化评估综述

对驾驶行为分类方法及量化评估进行综述,首先阐述了驾驶行为的涵义及表征方法,然后将驾驶行为分类方法划分为基于统计特性的分类方法、基于机器学习的分类方法、混合式(组合、集成)分类方法三大类,并对不同的驾驶行为分类方法的代表算法、优点及局限性等进行系统归纳和总结,其次,从多个维度对驾驶行为的量化评估研究进行系统介绍,最后介绍了驾驶行为分类及量化评估研究成果在多个领域的应用现状及前景展望。

高原环境导致的中青年驾驶行为及驾驶绩效特征

为了量化分析高原环境导致的驾驶行为特征差异,寻找驾驶绩效下降时间窗,运用驾驶模拟器和低氧发生器在平原地区模拟海拔3 900 m高原驾驶环境,开展驾驶模拟试验分别收集驾驶人在平原环境和模拟高原环境的驾驶行为数据和心电图(electrocardiogram,ECG)信号数据。通过对比高原实车试验环境驾驶人的心率指标变化,运用雷达图、数值排序图和单因素方差分析方法对平原、高原环境下的驾驶行为特征进行对比分析,引入Jensen-Shannon散度(JS散度)量化2种环境下横向偏移距离、横向加速度、转向盘旋转率和速度这4个指标的概率密度拟合分布之间的差异,使用差分法确定高原环境下的驾驶绩效下降时间,验证了模拟高海拔环境驾驶模拟试验的有效性研究。结果表明:高原环境下横向偏移距离标准差、横向加速度标准差、转向盘旋转率标准差、速度标准差比平原环境下分别增加了0.094 3 m,0.119 0 m/s^(2),0.000 9°/s,0.651 3 km/h,车辆整体稳定性降低;借助JS散度发现横向偏移距离、横向加速度、转向盘旋转率和速度这4个指标在2种环境下的数值分布存在较大距离,分别为0.23,0.11,0.01,0.02,其中车辆的横向运动受负面影响更大;在进入海拔3 900 m的高原地区时,驾驶绩效约在6 min后显著下降。

考虑CAV自主停车行为的混合交通均衡配流模型

为了评估网联自动驾驶汽车(CAV)的自主停车行为对交通系统效率的影响,建立了CAV通勤流、人工驾驶汽车(HDV)通勤流、CAV自主停车流3类交通流混行下的交通均衡配流模型.通过引入CAV停车需求内生变量,考虑CAV对路段通行能力的提升效应,从而定量描述CAV停车需求分布以及3类交通流在路段上混行的拥挤效应.分别采用用户均衡、随机用户均衡原则描述CAV、HDV出行者的路径选择行为,采用Logit离散选择模型描述自主停车CAV的停车场选择行为,由此建立多用户混合交通均衡条件以及等价的变分不等式(VI)模型.由于模型中CAV自主停车需求为未知的内生变量,提出一种改进的相继加权平均法求解该模型.最后,通过算例验证了混合交通均衡配流模型及求解算法的有效性.

无信控交叉口驾驶人潜在危险感知能力评估

为量化无信控交叉口驾驶人潜在危险的感知能力,组织驾驶人实车驾驶试验,实时采集驾驶人眼动特征参数。解析熟练和非熟练驾驶人直行通过无信控交叉口模式下的扫视和注视规律,引入马尔科夫链模型,阐释驾驶人注视转移特性,揭示驾驶人视觉搜索与潜在危险感知特性的内在联系。结合熟练和非熟练驾驶人各映射指标下的统计学分析,萃取驾驶人潜在危险感知能力表征参数。基于灰色近优综合评价法,构建驾驶人在无信控交叉口场景下的潜在危险感知能力评估模型。研究表明:直行条件下,无信控交叉口下非熟练驾驶人的水平搜索广度、垂直搜索深度和扫视强度显著低于熟练驾驶人;相较于熟练驾驶人,非熟练驾驶人兼顾道路两侧信息的能力较弱,且注视概率的适时调配机制不够灵活;熟练驾驶人在无信控交叉口的潜在危险感知得分比非熟练驾驶人高31.2%;熟练驾驶人中,男性潜在危险感知能力明显强于女性,而性别对非熟练驾驶人感知绩效无显著影响。研究结果可丰富防御性驾驶相关理论体系,为无信控交叉口交通设施的优化和完善,驾驶人安全教育及评估等提供重要参考。

考虑截获交通流量与充电行驶距离的电动汽车充电网络规划

为优化电动汽车充电网络布局,提高充电服务能力与效率,提出了同时考虑截获交通流量与充电行驶距离的充电网络规划模型。电动汽车动力电池初始荷电状态的不确定性导致充电网络截获交通流量具有随机特性,采用蒙特卡洛模拟方法对其概率特性进行了分析。为提升充电网络在任何情况下的充电服务能力,所提模型以充电网络截获交通流量最小值最大为优化目标之一。为提升充电服务效率,模型另一个优化目标为平均充电行驶距离最短。此外,模型考虑了充电行驶距离机会约束及充电站建设数目约束,采用非支配遗传算法对所提模型进行求解,获得Pareto最优解集。最后,以25节点交通网络为例进行了仿真实验,验证了所提方法的有效性。并基于仿真结果,分析了机会约束置信度与充电站数目对规划结果的影响。

考虑编队意愿的CAV队列对混合交通流条件下交叉口通行能力的影响研究

为研究考虑编队意愿的网联自动驾驶车辆(CAV)队列对混合交通流条件下交叉口通行能力的影响,针对CAV、自动驾驶车辆(AV)、人工驾驶车辆(HDV)构成的混合交通流,考虑CAV的编队意愿,基于10种车辆跟随状态类型和4种车间时距类型,基于马尔可夫链理论,推导出车辆跟随状态类型的状态转移矩阵和状态概率分布,构建交叉口通行能力模型,分析队列时距、编队意愿、渗透率(P_(C))、最大队列规模对交叉口通行能力的影响并进行数值案例验证。研究结果表明:通行能力随CAV队列时距的减小而增加;在给定P_(C)时,通行能力随编队意愿的增强而增加;P_(C)小于0.2时,编队意愿对交叉口通行能力的提高很小,P_(C)大于0.4时,编队意愿对提高交叉口通行能力的影响变得显著;更高的P_(C)是否会带来更大的通行能力,取决于编队意愿和异质的车间时距;对于控制队列规模不超过一个最大值k_(m′),在给定P_(C)时,通行能力随最大队列规模的增大而增加,但增幅逐渐减小;P_(C)小于0.2时,提高最大队列规模对通行能力的提高较小,P_(C)大于0.6时,最大队列规模对提高通行能力的影响变得显著。