Landscape ecological risk assessment and its driving factors in the Weihe River basin,China

Weihe River basin is of great significance to analyze the changes of land use pattern and landscape ecological risk and to improve the ecological basis of regional development.Based on land use data of the Weihe River basin in 2000,2010,and 2020,with the support of Aeronautical Reconnaissance Coverage Geographic Information System(ArcGIS),GeoDa,and other technologies,this study analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics and driving factors of land use pattern and landscape ecological risk.Results showed that land use structure of the Weihe River basin has changed significantly,with the decrease of cropland and the increase of forest land and construction land.In the past 20 a,cropland has decreased by 7347.70 km2,and cropland was mainly converted into forest land,grassland,and construction land.The fragmentation and dispersion of ecological landscape pattern in the Weihe River basin were improved,and land use pattern became more concentrated.Meanwhile,landscape ecological risk of the Weihe River basin has been improved.Severe landscape ecological risk area decreased by 19,177.87 km2,high landscape ecological risk area decreased by 3904.35 km2,and moderate and low landscape ecological risk areas continued to increase.It is worth noting that landscape ecological risks in the upper reaches of the Weihe River basin are still relatively serious,especially in the contiguous areas of high ecological risk,such as Tianshui,Pingliang,Dingxi areas and some areas of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region.Landscape ecological risk showed obvious spatial dependence,and high ecological risk area was concentrated.Among the driving factors,population density,precipitation,normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI),and their interactions are the most important factors affecting the landscape ecological risk of the Weihe River basin.The findings significantly contribute to our understanding of the ecological dynamics in the Weihe River basin,providing crucial insights for sustainable management in the region.

Prediction and driving factors of forest fire occurrence in Jilin Province,China

Forest fires are natural disasters that can occur suddenly and can be very damaging,burning thousands of square kilometers.Prevention is better than suppression and prediction models of forest fire occurrence have developed from the logistic regression model,the geographical weighted logistic regression model,the Lasso regression model,the random forest model,and the support vector machine model based on historical forest fire data from 2000 to 2019 in Jilin Province.The models,along with a distribution map are presented in this paper to provide a theoretical basis for forest fire management in this area.Existing studies show that the prediction accuracies of the two machine learning models are higher than those of the three generalized linear regression models.The accuracies of the random forest model,the support vector machine model,geographical weighted logistic regression model,the Lasso regression model,and logistic model were 88.7%,87.7%,86.0%,85.0%and 84.6%,respectively.Weather is the main factor affecting forest fires,while the impacts of topography factors,human and social-economic factors on fire occurrence were similar.

Dynamic Development Characteristics and Driving Factors of High Quality Development Level in China’s Five Major Urban Agglomerations

High-quality development is the primary task of comprehensively building a socialist,modern country,as well as the primary task of building urban agglomerations in China.Based on the five development concepts,this paper used the entropy method to measure the High Quality Development Index(HQDI)of the five major urban agglomerations.The results showed that the HQDI of the five major urban agglomerations shows a fluctuating upward trend.First,using the Dagum Gini coefficient to explore the sources of HQDI development differences in urban agglomerations,we found that the main source of HQDI differences in urban agglomerations was inter-regional differences,while intra-regional differences were not important.Second,kernel density estimation was used to test the dynamic evolution trend of HQDI within urban agglomerations.There was a polarisation phenomenon in the HQDI of urban agglomerations,such as the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration and the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration.But overall,the degree of imbalance had decreased.Third,using geographic detectors to examine the driving factors of HQDI in urban agglomerations,we found that the main driving forces for improving HQDI in urban agglomerations were economic growth,artificial intelligence technology and fiscal decentralisation.All the interaction factors had greater explanatory power for the spatial differentiation of HQDI,which can be divided into two types:two-factor improvement and non-linear improvement.This study is conducive to improving and enriching the theoretical system for evaluating the high quality development of urban agglomerations,and provides policy references for promoting the high quality development of urban agglomerations.

Biological factors driving colorectal cancer metastasis

Approximately 20%of colorectal cancer(CRC)patients present with metastasis at diagnosis.Among Stage I-III CRC patients who undergo surgical resection,18%typically suffer from distal metastasis within the first three years following initial treatment.The median survival duration after the diagnosis of metastatic CRC(mCRC)is only 9 mo.mCRC is traditionally considered to be an advanced stage malignancy or is thought to be caused by incomplete resection of tumor tissue,allowing cancer cells to spread from primary to distant organs;however,increa-sing evidence suggests that the mCRC process can begin early in tumor development.CRC patients present with high heterogeneity and diverse cancer phenotypes that are classified on the basis of molecular and morphological alterations.Different genomic and nongenomic events can induce subclone diversity,which leads to cancer and metastasis.Throughout the course of mCRC,metastatic cascades are associated with invasive cancer cell migration through the circulatory system,extravasation,distal seeding,dormancy,and reactivation,with each step requiring specific molecular functions.However,cancer cells presenting neoantigens can be recognized and eliminated by the immune system.In this review,we explain the biological factors that drive CRC metastasis,namely,genomic instability,epigenetic instability,the metastatic cascade,the cancer-immunity cycle,and external lifestyle factors.Despite remarkable progress in CRC research,the role of molecular classification in therapeutic intervention remains unclear.This review shows the driving factors of mCRC which may help in identifying potential candidate biomarkers that can improve the diagnosis and early detection of mCRC cases.

Analysis of the Spatiotemporal Variation Characteristics and Driving Factors of Land Vegetation GPP in a Certain Region of Asia

Gross primary productivity (GPP) of vegetation is a critical indicator of ecosystem growth and carbon sequestration. The spatiotemporal variation characteristics of land vegetation GPP trends in a specific region of Asia from 2001 to 2020 were analyzed by Sen and MK trend analysis methods in this study .Moreover , a GPP change attribution model was established to explore the driving influences of factors such as Leaf Area Index (LAI), Land Surface Temperature (LST), Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD), Soil Moisture, Solar Radiation and Wind Speed on GPP. The results indicate that summer GPP values are significantly higher than those in other months, accounting for 60.8% of the annual total GPP;spring and autumn contribute 18.91% and 13.04%, respectively. In winter, due to vegetation being nearly dormant, the contribution is minimal at 7.19%. Spatially, GPP shows a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest. LAI primarily drives the spatial and seasonal variations of regional GPP, while VPD, surface temperature, solar radiation, and soil moisture have varying impacts on GPP across different dimensions. Additionally, wind speed exhibits a minor contribution to GPP across different dimensions.

Land use change and its driving factors in the ecological function area:A case study in the Hedong Region of the Gansu Province,China

Land use and cover change(LUCC)is important for the provision of ecosystem services.An increasing number of recent studies link LUCC processes to ecosystem services and human well-being at different scales recently.However,the dynamic of land use and its drivers receive insufficient attention within ecological function areas,particularly in quantifying the dynamic roles of climate change and human activities on land use based on a long time series.This study utilizes geospatial analysis and geographical detectors to examine the temporal dynamics of land use patterns and their underlying drivers in the Hedong Region of the Gansu Province from 1990 to 2020.Results indicated that grassland,cropland,and forestland collectively accounted for approximately 99% of the total land area.Cropland initially increased and then decreased after 2000,while grassland decreased with fluctuations.In contrast,forestland and construction land were continuously expanded,with net growth areas of 6235.2 and 455.9 km^(2),respectively.From 1990 to 2020,cropland was converted to grassland,and both of them were converted to forestland as a whole.The expansion of construction land primarily originated from cropland.From 2000 to 2005,land use experienced intensified temporal dynamics and a shift of relatively active zones from the central to the southeastern region.Grain yield,economic factors,and precipitation were the major factors accounting for most land use changes.Climatic impacts on land use changes were stronger before 1995,succeeded by the impact of animal husbandry during 1995-2000,followed by the impacts of grain production and gross domestic product(GDP)after 2000.Moreover,agricultural and pastoral activities,coupled with climate change,exhibited stronger enhancement effects after 2000 through their interaction with population and economic factors.These patterns closely correlated with ecological restoration projects in China since 1999.This study implies the importance of synergy between human activity and climate change for optimizing land use via ecological patterns in the ecological function area.

Spatiotemporal patterns and driving factors of soil protection in the wind-water erosion area of Chinese Loess Plateau

As one of typical areas in the world,northern Chinese Loess Plateau experiences serious wind-water erosion,which leads to widespread land degradation.During the past decades,an ecological engineering was implemented to reduce soil erosion and improve soil protection in this area.Thus,it is necessary to recognize the basic characteristics of soil protection for sustainable prevention and wind-water erosion control in the later stage.In this study,national wind erosion survey model and revised universal soil loss equation were used to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution and driving forces of soil protection in the wind-water erosion area of Chinese Loess Plateau during 2000–2020.Results revealed that:(1)during 2000–2020,total amount of soil protection reached up to 15.47×10^(8) t,which was realized mainly through water and soil conservation,accounting for 63.20%of the total;(2)soil protection was improved,with increases in both soil protection amount and soil retention rate.The amounts of wind erosion reduction showed a decrease trend,whereas the retention rate of wind erosion reduction showed an increase trend.Both water erosion reduction amount and retention rate showed increasing trends;and(3)the combined effects of climate change and human activities were responsible for the improvement of soil protection in the wind-water erosion area of Chinese Loess Plateau.The findings revealed the spatiotemporal patterns and driving forces of soil protection,and proposed strategies for future soil protection planning in Chinese Loess Plateau,which might provide valuable references for soil erosion control in other wind-water erosion areas of the world.

Surface ozone in global cities:A synthesis of basic features,exposure risk,and leading meteorological driving factors

Long-term exposure to high surface ozone(O_(3))concentrations,a complex oxidative atmospheric pollutant,can adversely impact human health.Based on O_(3)monitoring data from 261 cities worldwide in 2020,generalized additive model(GAM)and spatial data analysis(SDA)methods were applied in this study to quantitatively evaluate the spatiotemporal distribution of O_(3)concentration,exposure risk,and dominant meteorological factors.Results indicated that over 40%of the cities worldwide were exposed to harmful O_(3)concentration ranges(40-60μg/m^(3)),with most cities distributed in China and India.Moreover,significant seasonal variations in global O_(3)concentrations were observed,presenting as summer(45.6μg/m^(3))>spring(47.3μg/m^(3))>autumn(38.0μg/m^(3))>winter(33.6μg/m^(3)).Exposure analysis revealed that approximately 12.2%of the population in 261 cities were exposed to an environment with high O_(3)concentrations(80-160μg/m^(3)),with about 36.32 million people in major countries.Thus,the persistent increase in high O_(3)levels worldwide is a critical factor contributing to threats to human health.Furthermore,GAM results indicated temperature,relative humidity,and wind speed as primary determinants of O_(3)variability.The synergy of meteorological factors is critical for understanding O_(3)changes.Our findings are important for enforcing robust air quality policies and mitigating public risk.

Risk factors for congenital nasolacrimal duct obstruction in children under two years of age

·AIM:To identify various risk factors that may play a significant role in the development of congenital nasolacrimal duct obstruction(CNLDO).·METHODS:This observational case-control study included a case group of 122 children less than two years of age with CNLDO who underwent probing and irrigation treatment at the ophthalmology department of Imam Khomeini Hospital in Ahvaz,Iran,from June 2022 to June2024.A control group of 122 age-matched children without CNLDO was also included for comparison.Data was collected from the children's medical records.·RESULTS:The study found a significant correlation between the occurrence of CNLDO and several maternal factors,such as preeclampsia,the use of levothyroxine,hypothyroidism,having more than three pregnancies(gravidity>3),natural pregnancy,and gestational diabetes mellitus.Additionally,in children,factors,such as oxygen therapy,anemia,reflux,jaundice,and a family history of CNLDO in first-degree relatives were associated with CNLDO,and maternal preeclampsia and hypothyroidism were found to significantly increase the risk of developing CNLDO in children.·CONCLUSION:Given that CNLDO affects both premature and full-term children,the present findings may potentially facilitate the early identification of children and infants at risk of nasolacrimal duct obstruction,thereby preventing the onset of chronic dacryocystitis.

Association between autoimmune gastritis and gastric polyps:Clinical characteristics and risk factors

BACKGROUND The relationship between autoimmune gastritis(AIG)and gastric polyps(GPs)is not well understood.AIM To explore the clinical characteristics and risk factors of AIG with GPs in patients.METHODS This double center retrospective study included 530 patients diagnosed with AIG from July 2019 to July 2023.We collected clinical,biochemical,serological,and demographic data were of each patient.Logistic regression analyses,both multivariate and univariate,were conducted to pinpoint independent risk factors for GPs in patients with AIG patients.Receiver operating characteristic curves were utilized to establish the optimal cutoff values,sensitivity,and specificity of these risk factors for predicting GPs in patients with AIG.RESULTS Patients with GPs had a higher median age than those without GPs[61(52.25-69)years vs 58(47-66)years,P=0.006].The gastrin-17 levels were significantly elevated in patients with GPs compared with those without GPs[91.9(34.2-138.9)pmol/mL vs 60.9(12.6-98.4)pmol/mL,P<0.001].Additionally,the positive rate of parietal cell antibody(PCA)antibody was higher in these patients than in those without GPs(88.6%vs 73.6%,P<0.001).Multivariate and univariate analyses revealed that PCA positivity[odds ratio(OR)=2.003,P=0.017],pepsinogen II(OR=1.053,P=0.015),and enterochromaffin like cells hyperplasia(OR=3.116,P<0.001)were significant risk factors for GPs,while pepsinogen I was identified as a protective factor.CONCLUSION PCA positivity and enterochromaffin like cells hyperplasia are significant risk factor for the development of GPs in patients with AIG.Elevated gastrin-17 levels may also play a role in this process.These findings suggest potential targets for further research and therapeutic intervention in managing GPs in patients with AIG.

Social function scores and influencing factors in patients with residual depressive symptoms

BACKGROUND At present,the influencing factors of social function in patients with residual depressive symptoms are still unclear.Residual depressive symptoms are highly harmful,leading to low mood in patients,affecting work and interpersonal communication,increasing the risk of recurrence,and adding to the burden on families.Studying the influencing factors of their social function is of great significance.AIM To explore the social function score and its influencing factors in patients with residual depressive symptoms.METHODS This observational study surveyed patients with residual depressive symptoms(case group)and healthy patients undergoing physical examinations(control group).Participants were admitted between January 2022 and December 2023.Social functioning was assessed using the Sheehan Disability Scale(SDS),and scores were compared between groups.Factors influencing SDS scores in patients with residual depressive symptoms were analyzed by applying multiple linear regression while using the receiver operating characteristic curve,and these RESULTS The SDS scores of the 158 patients with depressive symptoms were 11.48±3.26.Compared with the control group,the SDS scores and all items in the case group were higher.SDS scores were higher in patients with relapse,discon-tinuous medication,drug therapy alone,severe somatic symptoms,obvious residual symptoms,and anxiety scores≥8.Disease history,medication compliance,therapy method,and residual symptoms correlated positively with SDS scores(r=0.354,0.414,0.602,and 0.456,respectively).Independent influencing factors included disease history,medication compliance,therapy method,somatic symptoms,residual symptoms,and anxiety scores(P<0.05).The areas under the curve for predicting social functional impairment using these factors were 0.713,0.559,0.684,0.729,0.668,and 0.628,respectively,with sensitivities of 79.2%,61.8%,76.8%,81.7%,63.6%,and 65.5%and specificities of 83.3%,87.5%,82.6%,83.3%,86.7%,and 92.1%,respectively.CONCLUSION The social function scores of patients with residual symptoms of depression are high.They are affected by disease history,medication compliance,therapy method,degree of somatic symptoms,residual symptoms,and anxiety.

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Typical Ecosystem Services and Their Spatial Responses to Driving Factors in Ecologically Fragile Areas in Upper Yellow River,China

The identification of dominant driving factors for different ecosystem services(ESs)is crucial for ecological conservation and sustainable development.However,the spatial heterogeneity of the dominant driving factors affecting various ESs has not been adequately elucidated,particularly in ecologically fragile regions.This study employed the integrated valuation of ESs and trade-offs(InVEST)model to evaluate four ESs,namely,water yield(WY),soil conservation(SC),habitat quality(HQ),and carbon storage(CS),and then to identify the dominant driving factors of spatiotemporal differentiation of ES and further to characterize the spatial heterogeneity characteristics of the dominant driving factors in the eco-fragile areas of the upper Yellow River,China from 2000 to 2020.The results demonstrated that WY exhibited northeast-high and northwest-low patterns in the upper Yellow River region,while high values of SC and CS were distributed in central forested areas and a high value of HQ was distributed in vast grassland areas.The CS,WY,and SC exhibited decreasing trends over time.The most critical factors affecting WY,SC,HQ,and CS were the actual evapotranspiration,precipitation,slope,and normalized difference vegetation index,respectively.In addition,the effects of different factors on various ESs exhibited spatial heterogeneity.These results could provide spatial decision support for eco-protection and rehabilitation in ecologically fragile areas.

Burden of mental disorders and risk factors in the Western Pacific region from 1990 to 2021

BACKGROUND The burden of mental disorders(MD)in the Western Pacific Region(WPR)re-mains a critical public health concern,with substantial variations across demogra-phics and countries.AIM To analyze the burden of MD in the WPR from 1990 to 2021,along with associated risk factors,to reveal changing trends and emerging challenges.METHODS We used data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021,analyzing prevalence,incidence,and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)of MD from 1990 to 2021.Statistical methods included age-standardisation and uncertainty analysis to address variations in population structure and data completeness.RESULTS Between 1990 and 2021,the prevalence of MD rose from 174.40 million cases[95%uncertainty interval(UI):160.17-189.84]to 234.90 million cases(95%UI:219.04-252.50),with corresponding DALYs increasing from 22.8 million(95%UI:17.22-28.79)to 32.07 million(95%UI:24.50-40.68).During this period,the burden of MD shifted towards older age groups.Depressive and anxiety disorders were predominant,with females showing higher DALYs for depressive and anxiety disorders,and males more affected by conduct disorders,attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder,and autism spectrum disorders.Australia,New Zealand,and Malaysia reported the highest burdens,whereas Vietnam,China,and Brunei Darussalam reported the lowest.Additionally,childhood sexual abuse and bullying,and intimate partner violence emerged as significant risk factors.CONCLUSION This study highlights the significant burden of MD in the WPR,with variations by age,gender,and nation.The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has exacerbated the situation,emphasizing the need for a coordinated response.

Age-related driving mechanisms of retinal diseases and neuroprotection by transcription factor EB-targeted therapy

Retinal aging has been recognized as a significant risk factor for various retinal disorders,including diabetic retinopathy,age-related macular degeneration,and glaucoma,following a growing understanding of the molecular underpinnings of their development.This comprehensive review explores the mechanisms of retinal aging and investigates potential neuroprotective approaches,focusing on the activation of transcription factor EB.Recent meta-analyses have demonstrated promising outcomes of transcription factor EB-targeted strategies,such as exercise,calorie restriction,rapamycin,and metformin,in patients and animal models of these common retinal diseases.The review critically assesses the role of transcription factor EB in retinal biology during aging,its neuroprotective effects,and its therapeutic potential for retinal disorders.The impact of transcription factor EB on retinal aging is cell-specific,influencing metabolic reprogramming and energy homeostasis in retinal neurons through the regulation of mitochondrial quality control and nutrient-sensing pathways.In vascular endothelial cells,transcription factor EB controls important processes,including endothelial cell proliferation,endothelial tube formation,and nitric oxide levels,thereby influencing the inner blood-retinal barrier,angiogenesis,and retinal microvasculature.Additionally,transcription factor EB affects vascular smooth muscle cells,inhibiting vascular calcification and atherogenesis.In retinal pigment epithelial cells,transcription factor EB modulates functions such as autophagy,lysosomal dynamics,and clearance of the aging pigment lipofuscin,thereby promoting photoreceptor survival and regulating vascular endothelial growth factor A expression involved in neovascularization.These cell-specific functions of transcription factor EB significantly impact retinal aging mechanisms encompassing proteostasis,neuronal synapse plasticity,energy metabolism,microvasculature,and inflammation,ultimately offering protection against retinal aging and diseases.The review emphasizes transcription factor EB as a potential therapeutic target for retinal diseases.Therefore,it is imperative to obtain well-controlled direct experimental evidence to confirm the efficacy of transcription factor EB modulation in retinal diseases while minimizing its risk of adverse effects.

Response of Ecosystem Service Value Based on Land Use Changes and Analysis of its Driving Factors in Typical Hilly Region with Red Soil

The contribution rate of ecosystem service value variation was used to analyze the effects of land use changes on the changes of ecosystem service value in Xingguo County during 1996-2005.Grey integrated correlation was employed to explore the contribution level of the indicators such as total population,urbanization level,proportion of primary industry and investment of social fixed assets on ecosystem service value,and the correlation analysis was also carried out.The results showed that the ecosystem service value in Xingguo County during 1996-2005 mainly was woodland,and the decrease of woodland area was the major reason for the sustained reduction of ecosystem service value.With the further increase of market demand and the incentives of local government,the garden area rapidly increased during 2001-2005,and the influence degree of garden towards the changes of ecosystem service value was only second to woodland,ranking No.2.Four socio-economic indicators had different correlation degree with ecosystem service value during the different research periods.Total population,urbanization level and proportion of primary industry had high correlation degree with ecosystem service value,whereas the influence degree of various socio-economic indicators on ecosystem service value was equal with each other day by day.Urbanization level,investment of social fixed assets and total population had significant negative correlation with ecosystem service value,while the proportion of primary industry had positive correlation with ecosystem service value.

Analysis of the Groundwater System Change and Driving Factors in Songnen Plain in Jilin Province

[Objective] The aim was to provide theoretical basis for the study of underground water dynamic changes in Songnen Plain in Jilin Province.[Method] The dynamic changes and driving factors for the underground water in Songnen Plain in Jilin Province was expounded.[Result] Since 1960s,the temperature in the Songnen Plain in Jilin Province increased gradually.The average temperature increased 2℃;precipitation reduced gradually.Especially,the trend of precipitation reduction in west area was more distinct;in the meantime,the development of underground water augmented gradually and reached 2 800 million m3 in 2008.Driven by many factors,regional underground water level had distinct changes.Potential water position reduced greatly in northwest fan-shaped area.The one in other places were stable and even increased in certain parts;confined water position decreased quickly in general and it increased in certain parts.[Conclusion] The general deterioration trend of underground water environment was inevitable.But,the deterioration process can be eased through scientific planning and regional underground water resources so as to realize sustainable utilization of regional underground water resources.

Identification of Traffic Accident Causal Factors Through Dynamic Driving Behavior Analysis

The reliability expression of dynamic driving behavior is derived from the driving shaping behavioural model; and then, in accordance with the combination of computer simulation and mathematical expression of driving reliability, an approach for assessing the effect of driving erroneous actions on the dynamic performance of the driver vehicle system is presented. The analysis of driving erroneous actions in the driver vehicle system has been performed to show that the reliability during perception with variety widely could result in the incidents and/or accidents in traffic system.

Analysis of Driving Factors of Grain Output in Henan Province Based on Grey Correlation Model

Henan Province is an important grain production base, whose stable production is related to the economic development and social stability significantly. To summarize the primary factors of grain producing, we used grey correlation analysis method to analyze 10 correlative factors such as grain yield, grain yield per unit area, effective irrigated area, rural employed persons, grain planting area, consumption of chemical fertilizer in 25 years. The results showed order of synthetic degree of incidence: effective irrigated area>rural electricity consumption>consumption of chemical fertilizer>disaster crop area>grain yield per unit of area>total power of agricultural machinery>afflicted crop area>grain planting area>number of the rural employed persons. Finally, according to synthetic degree of incidence between influential factors and total grain output respectively, a series of measures and the suggestions was proposed for grain production in Henan Province, which will also provide the scientific basis and help for the government correct decision-making.

Quantitatively determine the dominant driving factors of the spatial–temporal changes of vegetation NPP in the Hengduan Mountain area during 2000-2015

The Hengduan mountain area,located in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River of China,is an important ecological barrier that significantly impacts the climate and ecological environment of the surrounding region and western China as a whole.This paper introduces the gravity center model used to analyze the spatial-temporal variation patterns of vegetation Net Primary Productivity(NPP)from 2000 to 2015,which were determined by the use of MOD17 A3 NPP products.Additionally,the dominant driving factors of the spatial–temporal changes of vegetation NPP of the Hengduan Mountain area were quantitatively determined with a geographical detector over 2000-2015.The results revealed that:(1)From 2000 to 2015,there was an increasing trend of vegetation NPP in the Hengduan mountain area.Throughout the whole study region,the vegetation NPP with a mean value of 611.37 gC·m^(-2)·a^(-1) indicated a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest in terms of spatial distribution.(2)The gravity centers of vegetation NPP in 2000-2015 were mainly concentrated in Zhongdian County.During the study period,the gravity center of vegetation NPP moved northward,which indicated that the increment and increasing rate of vegetation NPP in the northern parts were greater than that of the southern areas.(3)The vegetation NPP showed a moderately positive correlation with temperature,accumulated temperature(>10℃),and sunshine,while there was an overall negative relationship between NPP and precipitation.(4)The dominant factors and interactive dominant factors changed in different subregions over different segments of the study period.The dominant factors of most sub-regions in Hengduan mountain were natural factors,and the climate change factors played an increasingly greater role over the 16 years of the study period.

Multi-scenario Simulation for 2060 and Driving Factors of the Eco-spatial Carbon Sink in the Beibu Gulf Urban Agglomeration, China

Since China announced its goal of becoming carbon-neutral by 2060, carbon neutrality has become a major target in the development of China's urban agglomerations. This study applied the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS) model to predict the land use pattern of the ecological space of the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration, in 2060 under ecological priority, agricultural priority and urbanized priority scenarios. The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(In VEST) model was employed to analyse the spatial changes in ecological space carbon storage in each scenario from 2020 to 2060. Then, this study used a Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR) model to determine the main driving factors that influence the changes in land carbon sinking capacity. The results of the study can be summarised as follows: firstly, the agricultural and ecological priority scenarios will achieve balanced urban expansion and environmental protection of resources in an ecological space. The urbanized priority scenario will reduce the carbon sinking capacity. Among the simulation scenarios for 2060, carbon storage in the urbanized priority scenario will decrease by 112.26 × 10^(6) t compared with that for 2020 and the average carbon density will decrease by 0.96 kg/m^(2) compared with that for 2020. Carbon storage in the agricultural priority scenario will increase by 84.11 × 10^(6) t, and the average carbon density will decrease by 0.72 kg/m^(2). Carbon storage in the ecological priority scenario will increase by 3.03 × 10^(6) t, and the average carbon density will increase by 0.03 kg/m^(2). Under the premise that the population of the town will increases continuously, the ecological priority development approach may be a wise choice.Secondly, slope, distance to river and elevation are the most important factors that influence the carbon sink pattern of the ecological space in the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration, followed by GDP, population density, slope direction and distance to traffic infrastructure.At the same time, urban space expansion is the main cause of the changes of this natural factors. Thirdly, the decreasing trend of ecological space is difficult to reverse, so reasonable land use policy to curb the spatial expansion of cities need to be made.