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Spatiotemporal changes of gross primary productivity and its response to drought in the Mongolian Plateau under climate change 被引量:1
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作者 ZHAO Xuqin LUO Min +3 位作者 MENG Fanhao SA Chula BAO Shanhu BAO Yuhai 《Journal of Arid Land》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第1期46-70,共25页
Gross primary productivity(GPP)of vegetation is an important constituent of the terrestrial carbon sinks and is significantly influenced by drought.Understanding the impact of droughts on different types of vegetation... Gross primary productivity(GPP)of vegetation is an important constituent of the terrestrial carbon sinks and is significantly influenced by drought.Understanding the impact of droughts on different types of vegetation GPP provides insight into the spatiotemporal variation of terrestrial carbon sinks,aiding efforts to mitigate the detrimental effects of climate change.In this study,we utilized the precipitation and temperature data from the Climatic Research Unit,the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI),the standardized precipitation index(SPI),and the simulated vegetation GPP using the eddy covariance-light use efficiency(EC-LUE)model to analyze the spatiotemporal change of GPP and its response to different drought indices in the Mongolian Plateau during 1982-2018.The main findings indicated that vegetation GPP decreased in 50.53% of the plateau,mainly in its northern and northeastern parts,while it increased in the remaining 49.47%area.Specifically,meadow steppe(78.92%)and deciduous forest(79.46%)witnessed a significant decrease in vegetation GPP,while alpine steppe(75.08%),cropland(76.27%),and sandy vegetation(87.88%)recovered well.Warming aridification areas accounted for 71.39% of the affected areas,while 28.53% of the areas underwent severe aridification,mainly located in the south and central regions.Notably,the warming aridification areas of desert steppe(92.68%)and sandy vegetation(90.24%)were significant.Climate warming was found to amplify the sensitivity of coniferous forest,deciduous forest,meadow steppe,and alpine steppe GPP to drought.Additionally,the drought sensitivity of vegetation GPP in the Mongolian Plateau gradually decreased as altitude increased.The cumulative effect of drought on vegetation GPP persisted for 3.00-8.00 months.The findings of this study will improve the understanding of how drought influences vegetation in arid and semi-arid areas. 展开更多
关键词 gross primary productivity(GPP) climate change warming aridification areas drought sensitivity cumulative effect duration(CED) Mongolian Plateau
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Regional Climate Models in the Simulation of the Drought of the 1970’s and 1980’s Years in Senegal (In West Africa)
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作者 Mamadou Sarr Adoum Mahamat Moussa +2 位作者 Malick Wade El Hadji Deme Bouya Diop 《Journal of Water Resource and Protection》 CAS 2024年第9期585-604,共20页
West Africa was hit by an unprecedented drought in the 1970’s and 1980’s years, with dramatic consequences for surface and groundwater resources. In the context of climate change, there are many studies for the pred... West Africa was hit by an unprecedented drought in the 1970’s and 1980’s years, with dramatic consequences for surface and groundwater resources. In the context of climate change, there are many studies for the prediction of the increase in the occurrence of these droughts. To predict this situation in the Senegalese region, it is necessary to use regional climate models, which carrying out the study. This work deals with the interest to examine the capacity of the RCMs (regional climate models) in order to reproduce the deficit on the 1970’s year rainfall in Senegal. In this work, we used daily precipitation data from five (5) regional climate models to characterize the droughts in Senegal by using the SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) on different time scales (3, 6, 12 and 24 months). For this purpose, the index was calculated over two distinct periods: 1951-1969 and 1970-1990. The results show that the period 1970-1990 was drier than the period 1951-1969. For the zonal average, the results show that the North of Senegal was more affected by this deficit rainfall than the South part. The analysis of the interannual variability of rainfall for some stations in Senegal shows that the drought did not start at the same time throughout the zone. 展开更多
关键词 climate Change drought SPI (Standardised Precipitation Index) Senegal
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Response of drought to climate extremes in a semi-arid inland river basin in China
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作者 QU Zhicheng YAO Shunyu LIU Dongwei 《Journal of Arid Land》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第11期1505-1521,共17页
Against the backdrop of global warming,climate extremes and drought events have become more severe,especially in arid and semi-arid areas.This study forecasted the characteristics of climate extremes in the Xilin Rive... Against the backdrop of global warming,climate extremes and drought events have become more severe,especially in arid and semi-arid areas.This study forecasted the characteristics of climate extremes in the Xilin River Basin(a semi-arid inland river basin)of China for the period of 2021–2100 by employing a multi-model ensemble approach based on three climate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).Furthermore,a linear regression,a wavelet analysis,and the correlation analysis were conducted to explore the response of climate extremes to the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI)and Streamflow Drought Index(SDI),as well as their respective trends during the historical period from 1970 to 2020 and during the future period from 2021 to 2070.The results indicated that extreme high temperatures and extreme precipitation will further intensify under the higher forcing scenarios(SSP5-8.5>SSP2-4.5>SSP1-2.6)in the future.The SPEI trends under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were estimated as–0.003/a,–0.004/a,and–0.008/a,respectively,indicating a drier future climate.During the historical period(1970–2020),the SPEI and SDI trends were–0.003/a and–0.016/a,respectively,with significant cycles of 15 and 22 a,and abrupt changes occurring in 1995 and 1996,respectively.The next abrupt change in the SPEI was projected to occur in the 2040s.The SPEI had a significant positive correlation with both summer days(SU)and heavy precipitation days(R10mm),while the SDI was only significantly positively correlated with R10mm.Additionally,the SPEI and SDI exhibited a strong and consistent positive correlation at a cycle of 4–6 a,indicating a robust interdependence between the two indices.These findings have important implications for policy makers,enabling them to improve water resource management of inland river basins in arid and semi-arid areas under future climate uncertainty. 展开更多
关键词 climate extremes climate change Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI) Streamflow drought Index(SDI) wavelet analysis multi-model ensemble Xilin River Basin
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Influence of varied drought types on soil conservation service within the framework of climate change:insights from the Jinghe River Basin,China
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作者 BAI Jizhou LI Jing +4 位作者 RAN Hui ZHOU Zixiang DANG Hui ZHANG Cheng YU Yuyang 《Journal of Arid Land》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第2期220-245,共26页
Severe soil erosion and drought are the two main factors affecting the ecological security of the Loess Plateau,China.Investigating the influence of drought on soil conservation service is of great importance to regio... Severe soil erosion and drought are the two main factors affecting the ecological security of the Loess Plateau,China.Investigating the influence of drought on soil conservation service is of great importance to regional environmental protection and sustainable development.However,there is little research on the coupling relationship between them.In this study,focusing on the Jinghe River Basin,China as a case study,we conducted a quantitative evaluation on meteorological,hydrological,and agricultural droughts(represented by the Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI),Standardized Runoff Index(SRI),and Standardized Soil Moisture Index(SSMI),respectively)using the Variable Infiltration Capacity(VIC)model,and quantified the soil conservation service using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation(RUSLE)in the historical period(2000-2019)and future period(2026-2060)under two Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs)(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).We further examined the influence of the three types of drought on soil conservation service at annual and seasonal scales.The NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP)dataset was used to predict and model the hydrometeorological elements in the future period under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.The results showed that in the historical period,annual-scale meteorological drought exhibited the highest intensity,while seasonal-scale drought was generally weakest in autumn and most severe in summer.Drought intensity of all three types of drought will increase over the next 40 years,with a greater increase under the RCP4.5 scenario than under the RCP8.5 scenario.Furthermore,the intra-annual variation in the drought intensity of the three types of drought becomes smaller under the two future scenarios relative to the historical period(2000-2019).Soil conservation service exhibits a distribution pattern characterized by high levels in the southwest and southeast and lower levels in the north,and this pattern has remained consistent both in the historical and future periods.Over the past 20 years,the intra-annual variation indicated peak soil conservation service in summer and lowest level in winter;the total soil conservation of the Jinghe River Basin displayed an upward trend,with the total soil conservation in 2019 being 1.14 times higher than that in 2000.The most substantial impact on soil conservation service arises from annual-scale meteorological drought,which remains consistent both in the historical and future periods.Additionally,at the seasonal scale,meteorological drought exerts the highest influence on soil conservation service in winter and autumn,particularly under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.Compared to the historical period,the soil conservation service in the Jinghe River Basin will be significantly more affected by drought in the future period in terms of both the affected area and the magnitude of impact.This study conducted beneficial attempts to evaluate and predict the dynamic characteristics of watershed drought and soil conservation service,as well as the response of soil conservation service to different types of drought.Clarifying the interrelationship between the two is the foundation for achieving sustainable development in a relatively arid and severely eroded area such as the Jinghe River Basin. 展开更多
关键词 meteorological drought hydrological drought agricultural drought soil conservation service Variable Infiltration Capacity(VIC)model Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation(RUSLE) Jinghe River Basin
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Role of the Greenland Sea ice anomaly in the late-spring drought over Northwest China
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作者 Yang Liu Huopo Chen 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 2025年第1期1-5,共5页
Drought across Northwest China in late spring has exerted a vital effect on the local climate and agricultural production,and has been alleviated during the past decades.This study explored the influence of the preced... Drought across Northwest China in late spring has exerted a vital effect on the local climate and agricultural production,and has been alleviated during the past decades.This study explored the influence of the preceding Arctic sea ice on the May drought in Northwest China caused by the precipitation deficit.Further analysis indicated that when the Greenland Sea ice concentration is abnormally high during February to April,the dry conditions in Northwest China tend to be alleviated.The increase of sea ice in the Greenland Sea can excite a meridional circulation,which causes sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the North Atlantic via the sea-air interaction,manifested as significant warm SST anomalies over the south of Greenland and the subtropical North Atlantic,but negative SST anomalies over the west of the Azores.This abnormal SST pattern maintains to May and triggers a zonal wave train from the North Atlantic through Scandinavia and Central Asia to Northwest China,leading to abnormal cyclones in Northwest China.Consequently,Northwest China experiences a more humid climate than usual. 展开更多
关键词 Arctic sea ice Greenland Sea North Atlantic SST drought Northwest China
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CiNAC2 positively regulates drought stress tolerance by promoting superoxide dismutase activity in pecan(Carya illinoinensis)
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作者 Bingbing Yang Chaochen Yang +4 位作者 Juanjuan Chen Huadong Ren Kailiang Wang Linxiu Liu Xiaohua Yao 《Horticultural Plant Journal》 2025年第1期133-144,共12页
Pecan is an extremely important crop cultivated worldwide for edible nuts and nut oil.Considering the changes in precipitation and soil moisture caused by climate change and worsening global water scarcity,it is impor... Pecan is an extremely important crop cultivated worldwide for edible nuts and nut oil.Considering the changes in precipitation and soil moisture caused by climate change and worsening global water scarcity,it is important to understand the mechanism of pecan response to drought.To this end,this study investigated the response of pecan to drought stress and rehydration using physiological and transcriptomic analyses.Superoxide dismutase(SOD)enzyme activity in leaves was significantly upregulated during drought stress,suggesting that it might play an important role in drought response.Weighted gene co-expression network analysis of the transcriptome data was used to screen for a key drought-responsive gene,CiNAC2,which was overexpressed in Arabidopsis thaliana for functional validation.The analysis of stomatal apertures and the water loss rate in leaves showed that CiNAC2 might respond to drought stress via mediating stomatal aperture size.In addition,CiNAC2 could promote root growth under drought conditions.CiSOD1 was verified as a direct target gene of CiNAC2 by yeast one-hybrid assay dual-luciferase reporter assay.Yeast one-hybrid analysis confirmed that CiNAC2 bound to the promoters of CiSOD1.Transient expression in Nicotiana benthamiana epidermis showed that CiNAC2 upregulated the expression of CiSOD1.These results demonstrated that CiNAC2 enhanced drought stress tolerance via promoting SOD activity in pecan and provided a theoretical basis for breeding drought-resistant varieties in pecan. 展开更多
关键词 PECAN CiNAC2 drought TRANSCRIPTOMICS SOD
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Analysis on the Climate Characteristics of Summer Drought Frequency in Chongqing
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作者 韩世刚 苟思 +1 位作者 吉莉 陈欢 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2010年第10期36-38,共3页
By using daily meteorological data from 34 surface meteorological stations in Chongqing from 1960 to 2006,the climate characteristics of summer drought in recent 47 years were analyzed by means of Morlet wavelet analy... By using daily meteorological data from 34 surface meteorological stations in Chongqing from 1960 to 2006,the climate characteristics of summer drought in recent 47 years were analyzed by means of Morlet wavelet analysis.The results revealed that summer drought in Chongqing showed obvious decrease trend on the whole,while extreme severe summer drought decreased firstly and then increased,especially since 1990s with obvious increase trend.Around 1995 or 2004,there existed obvious oscillation period of 2-3 years in summer drought in Chongqing,and extreme severe summer drought was very stable without evident oscillation in 1906s,while there was obvious strong oscillation period of 4-5 years in extreme severe summer drought in Chongqing from 1970 to 1978. 展开更多
关键词 Summer drought Morlet wavelet analysis MATLAB CHONGQING China
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Effects of drought climate on the photosynthesis of Aneurolepidium chinense community in the typical steppe region of Inner Mongolia
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作者 Qi Qiuhui and Sheng Xiuwu Institute of Botany,Academia Sinica,Beijing 100044,China 《Journal of Environmental Sciences》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 1990年第4期31-37,共7页
Under the dry weather conditions in the typical steppe region of Inner Mongolia, the diurnal change curve of photosynthetic rate of Aneurolepidium chinense community is a curve of 'double peaks' with midday de... Under the dry weather conditions in the typical steppe region of Inner Mongolia, the diurnal change curve of photosynthetic rate of Aneurolepidium chinense community is a curve of 'double peaks' with midday depression. The photosynthetic rate in the morning is height than in the afternoon, which is related to the water condition at that time. The decrease range of community photosynthetic rate at noon is closely correlated with the low air relative humidity and soil moisture, the photosynthetic rate decreases less under better water condition.The instantaneous photosynthetic rate and diurnal net photosynthesis declined in dry condition, but they rised after irrigation or nitrogen-fertilization. Thus irrigation and fertilization is a effective way to improve grasslands and to raise grassland productivity. 展开更多
关键词 Aneurolepidium chinense photosynthetic rate drought climate.
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Drought Change Trend Using MODIS TVDI and Its Relationship with Climate Factors in China from 2001 to 2010 被引量:32
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作者 LIANG Liang ZHAO Shu-he +4 位作者 QIN Zhi-hao HE Ke-xun CHEN Chong LUO Yun-xiao ZHOU Xing-dong 《Journal of Integrative Agriculture》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2014年第7期1501-1508,共8页
Changes in drought trends and its relationship with climate change in China were examined in this study. The temperature vegetation drought index (TVDI) datasets recorded during 2001 to 2010 in China were constructe... Changes in drought trends and its relationship with climate change in China were examined in this study. The temperature vegetation drought index (TVDI) datasets recorded during 2001 to 2010 in China were constructed by using the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, and the temporal and spatial variations in drought were analyzed. In addition, the mean temperature, mean precipitation, mean relative humidity, and mean sunshine duration data collected from 557 local weather stations in China were analyzed. The relationships between drought and these climate factors were also analyzed by using correlation analysis and partial correlation analysis. Changes in drought tendency were shown to differ among four regions throughout the country. The lfuctuations in climate in the regions of northeastern China, Qinling-Huaihe, and central Qinghai were caused by the increase in soil moisture, and that in southern Tibet was caused by the intensiifcation of drought. Meteorological factors exhibited varied effects on drought among the regions. In southern China, the main inlfuential factor was temperature;other factors only showed minimal effects. That in the northern and northwestern regions was sunshine duration, and those in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau were relative humidity and temperature. 展开更多
关键词 drought climate factors TVDI MODIS China
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Spatiotemporal variation of drought characteristics in the Huang- Huai-Hai Plain, China under the climate change scenario 被引量:8
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作者 LI Xiang-xiang JU Hui +3 位作者 Sarah Garré YAN Chang-rong William D.Batchelor LIU Qin 《Journal of Integrative Agriculture》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2017年第10期2308-2322,共15页
Understanding the potential drought characteristics under climate change is essential to reduce vulnerability and establish adaptation strategies, especially in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (3H Plain), which is a major ... Understanding the potential drought characteristics under climate change is essential to reduce vulnerability and establish adaptation strategies, especially in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (3H Plain), which is a major grain production area in China. In this paper, we investigated the variations in drought characteristics (drought event frequency, duration, severity, and intensity) for the past 50 years (1961-2010) and under future scenarios (2010-2099), based on the observed meteorological data and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, respectively. First, we compared the applicability of three climatic drought indices: the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index based on the Penman-Monteith equation (SPEI-PM) and the same index based on the Thornthwaite equation (SPEI-TH) to correlate the recorded agricultural drought areas. Then, we analyzed the drought characteristics using 'run theory' for both historical and the future RCP 8.5 scenario based on the best performing index. Correlation analyses between drought indices and agricultural drought areas showed that SPEI-PM performed better than SPI and SPEI-TH in the 3H Plain. Based on the results of SPEI-PM, drought risks including duration, severity and intensity during 1961-2010 showed an decreasing trend. However, under the RCP 8.5 scenario, drought is expected to rise in frequency, duration, severity, and intensity from 2010-2099, although drought components during the 2010-2039 are predicted to be milder compared with historical conditions. This study highlights that the estimations for atmospheric evaporative demand would create differences in the prediction of long-term drought trends by different drought indices. The results of this study can help inform researchers and local policy makers to establish drought management strategies. 展开更多
关键词 climate change drought index drought characteristics Huang-Huai-Hai Plain
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Impacts of Upper Tropospheric Cooling upon the Late Spring Drought in East Asia Simulated by a Regional Climate Model 被引量:8
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作者 辛晓歌 Zhaoxin LI +1 位作者 宇如聪 周天军 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2008年第4期555-562,共8页
Responses of late spring (21 April 20 May) rainfall to the upper tropospheric cooling over East Asia are investigated with a regional climate model based on Laboratoire de M6t6orologie Dynamique Zoom (LMDZ4-RCM). ... Responses of late spring (21 April 20 May) rainfall to the upper tropospheric cooling over East Asia are investigated with a regional climate model based on Laboratoire de M6t6orologie Dynamique Zoom (LMDZ4-RCM). A control experiment is performed with two runs driven by the mean ERA-40 data during 1958-1977 and 1981 2000, respectively. The model reproduces the major decadal-scale circulation changes in late spring over East Asia, including a cooling in the upper troposphere and an anomalous meridional cell. Accordingly, the precipitation decrease is also captured in the southeast of the upper-level cooling region. To quantify the role of the upper-level cooling in the drought mechanism, a sensitivity experiment is further conducted with the cooling imposed in the upper troposphere. It is demonstrated that the upper-level cooling can generate the anomalous meridional cell and consequently the drought to the southeast of the cooling center. Therefore, upper tropospheric cooling should have played a dominant role in the observed late spring drought over Southeast China in recent decades. 展开更多
关键词 Southeast China spring drought inter-decadal variability regional climate modeling
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Warm–dry collocation of recent drought in southwestern China tied to moisture transport and climate warming 被引量:7
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作者 戴新刚 柳晔 汪萍 《Chinese Physics B》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2015年第4期546-554,共9页
This study aims to investigate the recent drought in southwestern China and its association with environmental changes in moisture transport (MT) and atmospheric circulation. Climatic Research Unit grid data, in sit... This study aims to investigate the recent drought in southwestern China and its association with environmental changes in moisture transport (MT) and atmospheric circulation. Climatic Research Unit grid data, in situ observations in China, and ERA-interim reanalysis are used to study the characteristics of the drought and the associated mechanism. Recent precipitation trends show a pattern of "Northern wetting and Southern drying", similar to the anti-phase of the climate pattern prevailing during 1980--2000 in China's Mainland; southwestern China incurred a severe drought during 2009-20l 3. Wavelet analysis reveals that the drought coincides with a warm-dry phase of temperature and precipitation on a period of about 20 years and beyond 100 years, where contributions account for 43% and 57% of the deficiency of the precipitation, averaged for 2003-2012, respectively. A further investigation reveals that the drought results chiefly from the decline of the southwestern monsoon MT toward southwestern China, in addition to mid-latitude circulation changes, which leads to more blockings near the Ural Mountains and the Sea of Okhotsk in the rainy season and negative anomalies around Lake Baikal and northeast China in the dry season. These anomalies are likely to be correlated with global sea surface temperature changes and need to be studied further. 展开更多
关键词 southwestern drought wavelet decomposition monsoon moisture transport and circulation anomalies climate warming
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Impacts of climate change on drought risk of winter wheat in the North China Plain 被引量:8
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作者 ZHANG Li CHU Qing-quan +2 位作者 JIANG Yu-lin CHEN Fu LEI Yong-deng 《Journal of Integrative Agriculture》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2021年第10期2601-2612,共12页
Drought is a major natural disaster causing crop yield losses,while its occurrence mechanism and spatiotemporal variations in a changing climate are still not clear.Based on a long-term climatic dataset(during 1958–2... Drought is a major natural disaster causing crop yield losses,while its occurrence mechanism and spatiotemporal variations in a changing climate are still not clear.Based on a long-term climatic dataset(during 1958–2015)from weather stations in the North China Plain(NCP),the influencing mechanism of various climatic factors on drought risk of winter wheat was quantified by using sensitivity analysis,Mann-Kendall trend test and slope estimation.The results indicated that climatic factors have changed considerably over the past six decades in the growth season of winter wheat.As a result,winter wheat suffered from severe droughts(with 350 mm of water deficit during its growth season),particularly at the jointing–heading and heading–mature stages,which were critical to crop yield formation.There were large spatial and temporal variations in drought risk and climatic change factors at different growth stages of winter wheat.Despite precipitation playing a vital role in determining the spatiotemporal patterns of drought risk,high temperature and low humidity along with other climatic factors at key growth stages of winter wheat aggravated drought risk.Particularly,temperature at nearly 90%weather stations showed a notablely upward trend,which exacerbated water deficit and drought risk of winter wheat.Given the complexity and high uncertainty of climate change,these findings provide important information for adapting crop production to future climate change and accompanied droughts while ensuring food security and agricultural sustainability. 展开更多
关键词 climate change winter wheat drought risk spatiotemporal variations food security
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Drought Forecasting in a Semi-arid Watershed Using Climate Signals:a Neuro-fuzzy Modeling Approach 被引量:4
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作者 Bahram CHOUBIN Shahram KHALIGHI-SIGAROODI +2 位作者 Arash MALEKIAN Sajjad AHMAD Pedram ATTAROD 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2014年第6期1593-1605,共13页
Large-scale annual climate indices were used to forecast annual drought conditions in the Maharlu-Bakhtegan watershed,located in Iran,using a neuro-fuzzy model.The Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI) was used as a p... Large-scale annual climate indices were used to forecast annual drought conditions in the Maharlu-Bakhtegan watershed,located in Iran,using a neuro-fuzzy model.The Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI) was used as a proxy for drought conditions.Among the 45 climate indices considered,eight identified as most relevant were the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO),Atlantic Meridional Mode(AMM),the Bivariate ENSO Time series(BEST),the East Central Tropical Pacific Surface Temperature(NINO 3.4),the Central Tropical Pacific Surface Temperature(NINO 4),the North Tropical Atlantic Index(NTA),the Southern Oscillation Index(SOI),and the Tropical Northern Atlantic Index(TNA).These indices accounted for 81% of the variance in the Principal Components Analysis(PCA) method.The Atlantic surface temperature(SST:Atlantic) had an inverse relationship with SPI,and the AMM index had the highest correlation.Drought forecasts of neuro-fuzzy model demonstrate better prediction at a two-year lag compared to a stepwise regression model. 展开更多
关键词 Annual Rainfall Large-scale climate Signals NEURO-FUZZY CROSS-CORRELATION Principal Components Analysis drought
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Meteorological drought features in northern and northwestern parts of Mexico under different climate change scenarios 被引量:4
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作者 Carlos ESCALANTE-SANDOVAL Pedro NUNEZ-GARCIA 《Journal of Arid Land》 SCIE CSCD 2017年第1期65-75,共11页
Meteorological drought has been an inevitable natural disaster throughout Mexican history and the northern and northwestern parts of Mexico(i.e., the studied area), where the mean annual precipitation(MAP) is less... Meteorological drought has been an inevitable natural disaster throughout Mexican history and the northern and northwestern parts of Mexico(i.e., the studied area), where the mean annual precipitation(MAP) is less than 500 mm, have suffered even more from droughts in the past. The aim of this study was to conduct a meteorological drought analysis of the available MAP data(1950–2013) from 649 meteorological stations selected from the studied area and to predict the drought features under the different IPCC-prescribed climate change scenarios. To determine the long-term drought features, we collected 1×10~4 synthetic samples using the periodic autoregressive moving average(PARMA) model for each rainfall series. The simulations first consider the present prevailing precipitation conditions(i.e., the average from 1950 to 2013) and then the precipitation anomalies under IPCC-prescribed RCP 4.5 scenario and RCP 8.5 scenario. The results indicated that the climate changes under the prescribed scenarios would significantly increase the duration and intensity of droughts. The most severe impacts may occur in the central plateau and in the Baja California Peninsula. Thus, it will be necessary to establish adequate protective measures for the sustainable management of water resources in these regions. 展开更多
关键词 meteorological drought synthetic simulation climate change water stress EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
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Spatio-temporal variation of hydrological drought under climate change during the period 1960–2013 in the Hexi Corridor, China 被引量:8
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作者 GAO Liming 《Journal of Arid Land》 SCIE CSCD 2016年第2期157-171,共15页
In recent years, climate change has been aggravated in many regions of the wodd. The Hexi Corridor is located in the semiarid climate zone of Northwest China, which is parUculady affected by climate change. Climate ch... In recent years, climate change has been aggravated in many regions of the wodd. The Hexi Corridor is located in the semiarid climate zone of Northwest China, which is parUculady affected by climate change. Climate change has led to the spatial and temporal variations of temperature and precipitation, which may result in hydrological drought and water shortage. Thus, it is necessary to explore and assess the drought characteristics of river systems in this area. The patterns of hydrological drought in the Hexi Corridor were identified using the streamflow drought index (SDI) and standardized precipitation index at 12-month timescale (SPI12) from 1960 to 2013. The evolution of drought was obtained by the Mann-Kendall test and wavelet transform method. The results showed that both the mean annual SDI and SPI12 series in the Hexi Corridor exhibited an increasing trend during the study period. According to the results of wavelet analysis, we divided the study period into two segments, i.e. before and after 1990. Before 1990, the occurrence of droughts showing decreased SDI and SPI12 was concentrated in the northern part of the corridor and shifted to the eastern part of the corridor after 1990. The probability of drought after 1990 in Shule River basin decreased while increased in Shiyang River basin. The wavelet analysis results showed that Shiyang River basin will be the first area to go through the next drought period. Additionally, the relationships between drought pattern and climate indices were analyzed. The enhanced westedy winds and increased precipitation and glacier runoff were the main reasons of wet trend in the Hexi Corridor. However, the uneven spatial variations of precipitation, temperature and glacier runoff led to the difference of hydrological drought variations between the Shule, Heihe and Shiyang River basins. 展开更多
关键词 Hcxi Corridor sUramflow drought index standardized precipitation index westerly index glacier runoff TEMPERATURE
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Comparative evaluation of impacts of climate change and droughts on river flow vulnerability in Iran 被引量:2
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作者 Zahra Noorisameleh Shahriar Khaledi +3 位作者 Alireza Shakiba Parviz Zeaiean Firouzabadi William AGough MMonirul Qader Mirza 《Water Science and Engineering》 EI CAS CSCD 2020年第4期265-274,共10页
Rivers in arid and semi-arid regions are threatened by droughts and climate change.This study focused on a comparative evaluation of the impacts of climate change and droughts on the vulnerability of river flows in th... Rivers in arid and semi-arid regions are threatened by droughts and climate change.This study focused on a comparative evaluation of the impacts of climate change and droughts on the vulnerability of river flows in three basins with diverse climates in Iran.The standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index(SPEI)and precipitation effectiveness variables(PEVs)extracted from the conjunctive precipitation effectiveness index(CPEI)were used to analyze the drought severity.To investigate hydrological droughts in the basins,the normalized difference water index(NDWI)and the streamflow drought index(SDI)were calculated and compared.The effects of droughts were assessed under various representative concentration pathway(RCP)scenarios.Changes in the number of wet days and precipitation depth restricted hydrological droughts,whereas an increasing number of dry days amplified their severity.The projected increases in dry days and precipitation over short durations throughout a year under future climate scenarios would produce changes in drought and flood periods and ultimately impact the frequency and severity of hydrological droughts.Under RCP 4.5,an increase in the frequencies of moderate and severe meteorological/hydrological droughts would further affect the Central Desert Basin.Under RCPs 2.6 and 8.5,the frequencies of severe and extreme droughts would increase,but the drought area would be smaller than that under RCP 4.5,demonstrating less severe drought conditions.Due to the shallow depths of most rivers,SDI was found to be more feasible than NDWI in detecting hydrological droughts.©2020 Hohai University.Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V.This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). 展开更多
关键词 climate change River flow PRECIPITATION drought index Standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index Iran
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Advances in the Research of Yunnan’s Arid Climate and Extreme Drought 被引量:1
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作者 Juzhang Ren Wancheng Zhang +1 位作者 Yunxia Wan Yan Chen 《Atmospheric and Climate Sciences》 2017年第1期23-35,共13页
With the global climate change, the extreme drought was increasing. From 2009 autumn to 2010 spring, a hundred-year drought happened in Yunnan province, which caused great local economic losses and widespread attentio... With the global climate change, the extreme drought was increasing. From 2009 autumn to 2010 spring, a hundred-year drought happened in Yunnan province, which caused great local economic losses and widespread attention. So many researches about Yunnan drought were studied. The climatic characteristics of the drought over Yunnan are studied by analyzing the spatial and temporal distribution of some meteorological factors such as precipitation, temperature and sunlight, etc. Some researchers studied the formation mechanism of the drought events in Yunnan. In this paper, by investigating lots of related documents, we had a summarization and commentary about the recent study achievements of Yunnan drought and tried to offer reference to the study on the Yunnan drought in the future. 展开更多
关键词 YUNNAN ARID climate EXTREME drought The ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION Change Characteristic
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Climate Change: Droughts and Increasing Desertification in the Middle East, with Special Reference to Iraq 被引量:1
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作者 Nasrat Adamo Nadhir Al-Ansari +2 位作者 Varoujan Sissakian Khalid Jehad Fahmi Salwan Ali Abed 《Engineering(科研)》 CAS 2022年第7期235-273,共39页
Climate change impacts on Earth’s atmosphere have caused drastic changes in the environment of most regions of the world. The Middle East region ranks among the worst affected of these regions. This has taken forms o... Climate change impacts on Earth’s atmosphere have caused drastic changes in the environment of most regions of the world. The Middle East region ranks among the worst affected of these regions. This has taken forms of increasing atmospheric temperatures, intensive heat waves, decreased and erratic precipitation and general decline in water resources;all leading to frequent and longer droughts, desertification and giving rise to intensive and recurrent (SDS). The present conditions have led to increasing emissions of (GHG) in the earth atmosphere. All future projections especially those using (IPCC) models and emission scenarios indicate that the Middle East will undergo appreciable decrease in winter precipitation with increasing temperature until the end of this century both of which are inductive to increased dryness and desertification. Iraq as one of the countries of this region and due to its geographical location, its dependence mostly on surface water resources originating from neighboring countries, long years of neglect and bad land management put it in the most precarious and unstable position among the other countries of the region. Modelling studies have shown that Iraq is suffering now from excessive dryness and droughts, increasing loss of vegetation cover areas, increasing encroachment of sand dunes on agricultural lands, in addition to severe and frequent (SDS). These negative repercussions and their mitigations require solutions not on the local level alone but collective cooperation and work from all the countries of the region. 展开更多
关键词 climate Change East Mediterranean Region Aridity Indices droughtS DESERTIFICATION Sand and Dust Storms (SDS) Green House Gases (GHG) Intergovermental Panel for climate Change (IPCC)
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Holocene Abrupt Climate Shifts and Mid-Holocene Drought Intervals Recorded in Barkol Lake of Northern Xinjiang of China 被引量:3
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作者 XUE Jibin ZHONG Wei +1 位作者 ZHAO Yinjuan PENG Xiaoying 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2008年第1期54-61,共8页
Study results in this paper have indicated that the Holocene climate in Xinjiang, Northwestem China has been alternating between wet and dry conditions, and was punctuated with a series of abrupt climate shifts. A sed... Study results in this paper have indicated that the Holocene climate in Xinjiang, Northwestem China has been alternating between wet and dry conditions, and was punctuated with a series of abrupt climate shifts. A sediment core taken from Barkol Lake in the northern Xinjiang of Northwest China was analyzed at 1 cm interval for grain-size distribution. Abrupt climate shifts revealed by the grain-size proxy occurred at ca 1.4, 3.0, 4.3, 5.6, 8.0 cal kyr B.E, which were well correlated to both the abrupt shifts recorded in the North Atlantic Ocean (NAO) and the Holocene sea surface temperature (SST) cooling events in the Arabian Ocean. The correlation indicated that the climatic changes in the extreme arid Northwest China were associated with the NAO, probably via the North Atlantic Oscillation-affected westerly winds. The strength and position of westerly winds probably modulated the Siberian-Mongolian high- pressure system (winter monsoon), and played an important role in climate change of Northwest China. Moreover, an evident drought interval during the middle Holocene was also revealed by grain-size proxy. 展开更多
关键词 abrupt climate shifts grain size HOLOCENE Barkol Lake Xinjiang
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