Contrasts of Atmospheric Circulation and Associated Tropical Convection between Huaihe River Valley and Yangtze River Valley Mei-yu Flooding

The significant differences of atmospheric circulation between flooding in the Huaihe and Yangtze River valleys during early mei-yu （i.e., the East Asian rainy season in June） and the related tropical convection were investigated. During the both flooding cases, although the geopotential height anomalies always exhibit equivalent barotropic structures in middle to high latitudes at middle and upper troposphere, the phase of the Rossby wave train is different over Eurasian continent. During flooding in the Huaihe River valley, only one single blocking anticyclone is located over Baikal Lake. In contrast, during flooding in the Yangtze River valley, there are two blocking anticyclones. One is over the Ural Mountains and the other is over Northeast Asia. In the lower troposphere a positive geopotential height anomaly is located at the western ridge of subtropical anticyclone over Western Pacific （SAWP） in both flooding cases, but the location of the height anomaly is much farther north and west during the Huaihe River mei-yu flooding. Fhrthermore, abnormal rainfall in the Huaihe River valley and the regions north of it in China is closely linked with the latent heating anomaly over the Arabian Sea and Indian peninsula. However, the rainfall in the Yangtze River valley and the regions to its south in China is strongly related to the convection over the western tropical Pacific. Numerical experiments demonstrated that the enhanced latent heating over the Arabian Sea and Indian peninsula causes water vapor convergence in the region south of Tibetan Plateau and in the Huaihe River valley extending to Japan Sea with enhanced precipitation; and vapor divergence over the Yangtze River valley and the regions to its south with deficient precipitation. While the weakened convection in the tropical West Pacific results in moisture converging over the Yangtze River and the region to its south, along with abundant rainfall.

The Relation between Atmospheric Intraseasonal Oscillation and Summer Severe Flood and Drought in the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin

The intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) is studied during the severe flood and drought years of the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the precipitation data in China. The results show that the upper-level (200 hPa) ISO pattern for severe flood (drought) is characterized by an anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation over the southern Tibetan Plateau and a cyclonic (anti-cyclonic) circulation over the northern Tibetan Plateau. The lower-level (850 hPa) ISO pattern is characterized by an anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation over the area south of the Changjiang River, the South China Sea, and the Western Pacific, and a cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation from the area north of the Changjiang River to Japan. These low-level ISO circulation patterns are the first modes of the ISO wind field according to the vector EOF expansion with stronger amplitude of the EOF1 time coefficient in severe flood years than in severe drought years. The analyses also reveal that at 500 hPa and 200 hPa, the atmospheric ISO activity over the Changjiang-Huaihe River basin, North China, and the middle-high latitudes north of China is stronger for severe flood than for severe drought. The ISO meridional wind over the middle-high latitude regions can propagate southwards and meet with the northward propagating ISO meridional wind from lower latitude regions over the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin during severe flood years, but not during severe drought years.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE ATMOSPHERIC HEATING SOURCE/SINK ANOMALIES OF ASIAN MONSOON AND FLOOD/DROUGHT IN THE YANGTZE RIVER BASIN IN THE MEIYU PERIOD

NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and a 30-year precipitation dataset of observed daily rainfall from 109 gauge stations are utilized in this paper.Using the REOF we analyzed the spatial distribution of precipitation in the 109 stations in the Yangtze River Basin in Meiyu periods from 1978 to 2007.The result showed that the spatial distribution of precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin can be divided into the south and north part.As a result,relationships between an atmospheric heating source(hereafter called <Q_1>) over the Asian region and the precipitation on the south and north side of Yangtze River in Meiyu periods were separately studied in this paper.The results are shown as follows.The flood/drought to the north of Yangtze River(NYR) was mainly related to the <Q_1> over the East Asia summer monsoon region:when the <Q_1> over the Philippines through Western Pacific and the south China was weakened(strengthened),it would probably result in the flood(drought) in NYR;and the precipitation on the south side of Yangtze River(SYR)was related to the <Q_1> over the east Asia and Indian summer monsoon region:when the <Q_1> over the areas from south China to the northern East China Sea and Yellow Sea and south-eastern Japan was strengthened(weakened),and the <Q_1> over the areas from the Bay of Bengal to south-eastern Tibetan Plateau was weakened(strengthened),it will lead to flood(drought) in SYR.

Water vapor transport over China and its relationship with drought and flood in Yangtze River Basin

The characteristics of water vapor transport(WVT) over China and its relationship with precipitation anomalies in the Yangtze River Basin(YRB) are analyzed by using the upper-air station data in China and ECMWF reanalysis data in summer from 1981 to 2002.The results indicate that the first mode of the vertically integrated WVT is significant whose spatial distribution presents water vapor convergence or divergence in the YRB.When the Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH) is strong and shifts southward and westward, the Indian Monsoon Low Pressure(IMLP) is weak, and the northern part of China stands behind the middle and high latitude trough, a large amount of water vapor from the Bay of Bengal(BOB), the South China Sea(SCS) and the western Pacific forms a strong and steady southwest WVT band and meets the strong cold water vapor from northern China in the YRB, thus it is likely to cause flood in the YRB.When WPSH is weak and shifts northward and eastward, IMLP is strong, and there is nearly straight west wind over the middle and high latitude, it is unfavorable for oceanic vapor extending to China and no steady and strong southwest WVT exists in the region south of the YRB.Meanwhile, the cold air from northern China is weak and can hardly be transported to the YRB.This brings on no obvious water vapor convergence, and then less precipitation in the YRB.

Analysis of Causes and Seasonal Prediction of the Severe Floods in Yangtze／Huaihe Basins during Summer 1991

The present paper shows that a seasonal prediction for the large scale flooding and waterlogging of the mid-lower Yangtze/ Huaihe River basins in the summer of 1991 made successfully in early April 1991.The seasonal forecasting method and some predictors are also introduced and analyzed herein. Because the extra extent of the abnormally early onset of the plum rain period in 1991 was unexpected,great efforts have been made to find out the causes of this abnormality. These causes are mainly associated with the large scale warming of SST surrounding the south and east part of Asia during the preceding winter,while the ENSO-like pattern of SSTA occurred in the North Pacific.In addition,the possible influence of strong solar proton events is analyzed.In order to improve the seasonal pre4iction the usage of the predicted SOl in following spring/summer is also introduced.The author believes thatthe regional climate anomaly can be correctly predicted for one season ahead only on the basis of physical understanding of the interactions of many preceding factors.

Development of a Meteorological and Hydrological Coupling Index for Droughts and Floods along the Yangtze River Valley of China

To comprehensively investigate characteristics of summer droughts and floods in the Yangtze River valley, a meteorological and hydrological coupling index （MHCI） was developed using meteorological and hydro- logical data. The results indicate that： （1） in representing drought/flood information for the Yangtze River valley, the MHCI can reflect composite features of precipitation and hydrological observations; （2） compre- hensive analysis of the interannual phase difference of the precipitation and hydrological indices is important to recognize and predict annual drought/flood events along the valley; the hydrological index contributes more strongly to nonlinear and continuity features that indicate transition from long-term drought to flood conditions; （3） time series of the MHCI from 1960-2009 are very effective and sensitive in reflecting annual drought/flood characteristics, i.e. there is more rainfall or typical flooding in the valley when the MHCI is positive, and vice versa; and （4） verification of the MHCI indicates that there is significant correlation between precipitation and hydrologic responses in the valley during summer; the correlation coefficient was found to reach 0.82, exceeding the 0.001 significance level.

A comparative study of the atmospheric circulations associated with rainy-season floods between the Yangtze and Huaihe River Basins

Here we present the results from the composite analyses of the atmospheric circulations and physical quantity fields associated with rainy-season for the selected floods cases over the Yangtze and Huaihe River basins for the 21 years(1990–2010),using the daily rain gauge measurements taken in the 756 stations throughout China and the NCEP/reanalysis data for the rainyseasons(June–July)from 1990 to 2010.The major differences in the atmospheric circulations and physical quantity fields between the Yangtze and Huaihe River basins are as follows:for flooding years of the Yangtze River Basin,the South Asia high center is located further east than normal,the blocking high over the Urals and the Sea of Okhotsk maintains,and the Meiyu front is situated near 30°N whereas for flooding years of the Huaihe River Basin,the South Asia high center is further west than normal,the atmospheric circulations over the mid and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere are of meridional distribution,and the Meiyu front is situated near 33°N.In addition,there are distinct differences in water vapor sources and associated transports between the Yangtze and Huaihe River basins.The water vapor is transported by southwesterly flows from the Bay of Bengal and monsoon flows over the South China Sea for flooding years of the Yangtze River Basin whereas by southeast monsoons from the eastern and southern seas off China and monsoon flows over the South China Sea for flooding years of the Huaihe River Basin.

干旱区与湿润区旱涝急转演变特征对比研究

以长江、黄河和淮河流域为研究对象,基于标准化旱涝急转指数,利用趋势分析、变点检验、小波分析、随机森林等方法探究典型干旱区与湿润区旱涝急转演变特征及其驱动因子。结果表明:湿润和半湿润区是极端旱涝急转事件的高频发生区,干旱区是极端旱转涝事件的高频发生区;干旱区的突变发生在1998年,湿润区的突变在1978年,未来干旱区更易发生旱转涝事件,湿润区则相反;气象因子在湿润区对旱涝急转的贡献度更大,大气环流对干旱区的影响突出,旱涝急转与不同驱动因子间存在非线性关系。

Large-scale atmospheric singularities and summer long-cycle droughts-floods abrupt alternation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River

The daily precipitation data at 720 sta- tions over China for the 1957―2003 period during summer (May―August) are used to investigate the summer subseasonal long-cycle droughts-floods abrupt alternation (LDFA) phenomenon and a long-cycle droughts-floods abrupt alternation index (LDFAI) in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYRV) is defined to quantify this phenomenon. The large-scale atmospheric circula- tion features in the anomalous LDFA years are ex- amined statistically. Results demonstrate that the summer droughts-to-floods (DTF) in the MLYRV usually accompany with the more southward western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), negative vorticity, strong divergence, descending movements develop- ing and the weak moisture transport in the low level, the more southward position of the South Asia high (SAH) and the westerly jets in the high level during May―June, but during July―August it is in the other way, northward shift of the WPSH, positive vorticity, strong convergence, ascending movements and strong moisture transport in the low level, and the northward shift of the SAH and the westerly jets in the high level. While for the summer floods-to-droughts (FTD) in the MLYRV it often goes with the active coldair mass from the high latitude, positive vorticity, strong convergence, ascending movement develop- ing and the strong moisture transport in the low level, and the SAH over the Tibetan Plateau in the high level, but during July―August it is often connected with the negative vorticity, strong divergence, de- scending movements developing and the weak moisture transport in the low level, the remarkable northward shift of the WPSH, the SAH extending northeastward to North China and the easterly jets prevailing in the high level over the MLYRV. In addi- tion, the summer LDFA in the MLYRV is of significant relationship with the Southern Hemisphere annual mode and the Northern Hemisphere annual mode in the preceding February, which offers some predictive signals for the summer LDFA forecasting in the MLYRV.

The Diagnostic Study on the Drought and Flood Over the Yangtze River Basin With Weather Satellite Observations

The drought and flood over the Yangtze River basin are closely related to the anomaly of the general circulation. The impacts of the disasters resulting from it on the China national economy are of great importance. Attention is paid to them by meteorologists and forecasters in China. Most of the previous studies on it used the conventional data. Because the weather satellite observation has the advantages of continuity, homogeneous spatial and temporal resolution and global coverage, it greatly makes up the defect of the conventional measurements. The outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) observed from

长江流域旱涝急转演变特征及其社会经济暴露度

旱涝急转是指干旱和洪水之间的快速转变,对农业生产和人类安全造成巨大威胁。本研究基于月尺度的旱涝急转量级指数,分析了长江流域历史和未来四种旱涝急转事件,并通过滑窗法构建了旱涝急转量级的时变函数,揭示了未来旱涝急转风险变化。同时,结合共享社会经济路径量化了人口和经济受旱涝急转风险变化影响的程度。结果显示,历史时期长江流域中下游旱涝急转事件频发,旱–涝和涝–旱事件每10年发生10~12次,而旱–涝–旱和涝–旱–涝事件每10年发生3~4次。未来旱–涝–旱和涝–旱–涝事件预计大幅增加,其中长江上游部分地区增长了约7倍。对于历史基准期50年一遇的旱涝急转事件,未来发生概率将增加5~10倍,给长江流域的人口和经济带来重大影响。

Simulation and Analysis about the Effects of Geopotential Height Anomaly in Tropical and Subtropical Region on Droughts or Floods in the Yangtze River Valley and North China

Previous study comes to the conclusion： based on the anomalies of the South Asian high （SAH）, 100-hPa geopotential height, and 100-hPa circulation over tropical and subtropical regions, we can predict precipitation anomaly in the Yangtze River Valley and North China. To test its validity, a series of experiments have been designed and operated, which include controlled experiment, sensitivity experiment （which has added anomalies into 100-hPa geopotential height and wind field）, and four-composite experiments. Experiments based on the composed initial field such as EPR-CF, EPR-CD, EPR-HF, and EPR-HD, can reproduce the floods or droughts in the Yangtze River Valley and North China. It suggests that anomalies of the SAH, 100- hPa geopotential height, and circulation over tropical and subtropical regions may probably imply summer precipitation anomalies in the two regions. Sensitivity experiment results show that anomalies of the SAH, 100-hPa geopotential height, and southwest flow in the previous period is a signal of droughts or floods for the following summer in the Yangtze River Valley and North China. And it is also one of the factors that have impact on summer precipitation anomaly in the two regions. Positive anomaly of 100-hPa geopotential height and the anomalous intensifying of the SAH and southwest flow will induce floods in the Yangtze River Valley and droughts in North China; while negative anomaly of 100-hPa geopotential height and anomalous weakening of the SAH and southwest flow will induce droughts in the Yangtze River Valley and floods in North China.

中国旱涝急转事件时空变化特征

【目的】旱涝急转事件造成的社会经济和生态环境影响严重,是我国发生频繁且广泛的一种复合型事件。明确我国旱涝急转事件发生的时空变化特征,可为地区制定防灾减灾措施提供科学依据。【方法】基于1961—2021年气象观测数据,使用Penman-Monteith模型计算潜在蒸散发,然后计算逐日的标准化降水蒸散指数(daily-SPEI),分流域对中国旱涝急转事件的频次、影响范围和趋势的变化特征进行分析。【结果】结果显示:(1)时间趋势上,1961—2021年中国受旱涝急转事件影响的范围以0.6%/10a的趋势增加,且平均每年有19.8%的范围发生旱涝急转事件。(2)空间分布上,旱涝急转事件主要分布在淮河流域、黄河流域、长江流域和松花江流域,事件发生频次在30次以上地区分别占流域总面积的63.1%、20.7%、15.0%、14.6%,事件频次最高达到53次。(3)中国旱涝急转事件存在明显的季节差异,主要发生在夏季事件发生频次在5次以上的空间范围占中国总面积的一半以上;其次是春季和秋季,事件发生频次在5次以上的空间范围占比均不足15%;冬季发生最少,事件发生频次在5次以下。【结论】结果表明:中国旱涝急转事件的影响范围整体呈增加趋势,中国中东部和东北部是旱涝急转事件发生频繁地区。研究结果可为旱涝急转事件的监测与应对提供科学基础。

守牢水旱灾害防御底线护航长江经济带高质量发展

近年来,随着长江流域防洪抗旱体系的不断完善和应对能力的不断提升,水旱灾害防御工作取得了显著的防灾减灾综合效益,为长江经济带高质量发展提供了水安全保障。文章深入分析建设安澜长江的重大意义,总结长江流域水旱灾害防御的主要措施和手段,提炼主要经验和启示,以及取得的巨大成绩,进一步检视长江流域在蓄滞洪区建设运用、中小河流洪水和山洪灾害防御以及水工程联合调度等方面存在的薄弱环节与不足,提出提升长江流域水旱灾害防御能力的对策思路。

1949-2012年淮河流域的水旱灾害及其成因分析

中华人民共和国成立以后,淮河流域水旱灾害仍时有发生。1949-2012年发生较重水灾的年份有1950年、1954年、1956年、1957年、1963年、1974年、1975年、1991年、2003年、2007年,发生较重旱灾的年份有1959-1961年、1966-1967年、1976-1978年、1986-1988年、1991-1992年、1994年、2000-2001年。其间,水旱灾害呈现出水灾频次减弱而旱灾逐渐加剧、多水旱交替或连年发生、造成的损失巨大、与污染灾害叠加等特点。淮河流域水旱灾害的产生及其多样化特点,系由气候变化、黄河夺淮长期影响等自然因素与不合理的水利兴修、农业垦殖活动以及水事纠纷的扩大等社会因素共同作用的结果。

2022年长江口夏季咸潮入侵及影响机制研究

2022年长江流域降雨、干支流来水均严重偏少,江湖水位持续走低,发生了1961年有完整记录以来最严重的流域性气象水文干旱。受此影响,2022年8月下旬长江河口就遭遇咸潮入侵,为有咸潮入侵监测记录以来历史最早,随后入侵增强并持续影响长江口。针对2022年长江口罕见的夏秋季节咸潮入侵事件,利用长江口岸基、浮标观测资料,分析了2022年洪季咸潮入侵的变化过程,并结合FVCOM咸潮入侵数值模型,量化分析径流、潮汐及台风事件对咸潮入侵的影响。结果表明:2022年夏季长江径流量为历史极低值,导致长江口咸潮入侵时间提前,入侵频率增加,上溯距离增大,河道北侧盐度显著高于南侧。在低径流情况下咸潮入侵呈现显著的涨落潮、大小周期性变化,其中小潮后期为盐度的快速上升期,大潮至中潮位为盐度缓慢下降时段。除此之外,持续的偏北风会有利于外海水体向海内输送,导致水位抬升,增强咸潮入侵。2022年9月在北向型台风“轩岚诺”和“南玛都”的影响下,随着涨潮流的作用,长江口咸潮入侵程度在9月21日达到最大,上溯至东风西沙水库北部约10 km处。研究成果可为进一步认识长江口咸潮入侵规律及机理提供依据。

长江-淮河流域短时暴雨洪涝灾害危险性预警评估及验证

洪涝灾害危险性预警分析是防灾减灾的重要基础,在灾害发生前进行预警,可以有效减轻灾害带来的影响。本文以2020年6—8月长江-淮河流域洪涝灾害为研究案例,首次利用前3天累计降水量(前期状态),当前时次土壤湿度(当前状态)和预测日降水量(未来状态)作为致灾因子,基于改进的层次分析法建立危险性预警分析模型。通过县域灾情信息验证表明,评估正确率达74.46%,遗漏率仅5.59%,评估结果与实际灾情吻合性好;同时对预警准确性和时相一致性进行评价,最大值(县内最高指数)的预警率达到81.6%;“特大型”暴雨洪涝灾害中的预警达到77.3%以上,且灾害在前3~5天危险性指数普遍提升,存在有效预警。本文方法对于长江—淮河流域短时暴雨洪涝灾害危险性预警有较好的准确性和可靠性,可提供防灾减灾决策依据。

引江济淮工程水源区和受水区干旱遭遇风险

干旱遭遇会严重影响跨流域调水工程的效益发挥,为科学评估引江济淮工程水源区和受水区的干旱遭遇风险,采用标准化降水蒸散指数(standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index,SPEI)和Copula理论构建水源区和受水区干旱指数的联合分布,分析历史和未来两个区域干旱演变规律以及干旱遭遇风险变化。结果表明:1960—2020年水源区和受水区发生干旱的频率分别为27.32%和29.78%;未来情景下两个区域干旱发生频率均有明显增加,尤其高排放情景下特旱发生频率增加超过10%;非汛期水源区和受水区同时发生干旱的概率比汛期高5.49%;未来汛期和全年干旱遭遇频率预计有明显增加,非汛期干旱遭遇频率略有降低;在中高排放情景下(SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5),远期干旱遭遇频率相对更高。干旱遭遇风险增加对跨流域调水工程效益发挥带来了巨大挑战,因此迫切需要制定适应性策略,为调水工程正常运行管理和水资源可持续利用提供保障。

长江流域2022“汛期反枯”现象警示与对策

2022年7—10月,长江流域发生历史罕见“汛期反枯”极端现象,值得警示。建议深入学习贯彻落实习近平生态文明思想、“节水优先、空间均衡、系统治理、两手发力”治水思路,根据水旱灾害统筹防御要求,从主动适应气候变化和提高水旱灾害防御韧性角度,建立长江流域水旱灾害统筹防御协调机制,系统强化防汛抗旱工程体系和流域治理能力非工程措施,进一步完善长江流域水安全保障体系,加强气候变化环境下长江流域水—粮食—生态—能源—航运安全战略研究,全力保障长江经济带高质量发展。

基于径流分析的淮河流域汛期旱涝急转研究

本文基于淮河流域吴家渡水文监测站1950-2007年月径流量资料,通过定义长、短周期径流旱涝急转指数,分析了淮河流域汛期径流旱涝急转现象(分旱转涝和涝转旱两种类型),研究结果表明:1)长周期径流旱涝急转在1986年以前发生次数较多,而1986年以后发生次数相对较少;2)各相邻月间的短周期旱涝急转的年际振荡以6-7月最多,且其长期变化规律与长周期旱涝急转年际振荡变化相似;3)长、短周期旱涝急转频次呈现不断减少的趋势,但全旱和全涝频次则有增加的趋势;4)2000s汛期长周期旱转涝、短周期6-7月旱转涝有逐渐增加的趋势,分析认为这种旱涝急转变化是导致淮河流域汛期径流量增加的主要原因之一.