Climate Changes and Sustainability

Climate change is the phrase used to describe long-term changes in temperatures and weather patterns. Changes in the atmosphere and their interactions with diverse geologic, chemical, biological, and geographic variables are the main contributors to this cyclical adjustment of the Earth’s climate. Such changes may be induced purposefully, because of burning fossil fuels, clearing forests, and raising animals, or they may be natural, brought on by significant volcanic eruptions or variations in the sun’s activity. By significantly increasing the amount of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere, this heightens the greenhouse effect and contributes to global warming. This work includes several additional theoretical and practical explanations of sustainable development. The theoretical work encompasses hundreds of researches that identify requirements for how development routes might satisfy sustainable development (SD) criteria using economic theory, complex systems approach, ecological science, and other techniques. The agreements made by the Parties in various nations across the world will consider a wide range of perspectives about what would be considered undesirable effects on the environment, the climate system, sustainability, economic growth, or food production.

Abrupt Climate Changes of Holocene

This paper is a review of studies of abrupt climate changes(ACCs) during the Holocene published during the past ten years.North Atlantic cold events are indicators of ACCs.As indicated by North Atlantic ice-rafted debris(IRD),there were nine confirmed cold events during the Holocene,occurring at 11.1 kyr,10.3 kyr,9.4 kyr,8.1 kyr,5.9 kyr,4.2 kyr,2.8 kyr,1.4 kyr,and 0.4 kyr respectively according to most representative results from Bond et al.(1997).However,the identification of chronology has been made with some uncertainties.Considerable climatic proxy data have shown that,during the cold events,substantial climate abnormalities have occurred widely across the globe,particularly in the areas surrounding the North Atlantic.These abnormalities were in the form of high-latitude cold in the both hemispheres,expansion of the Westerlies to low latitudes,drought in the monsoon regions,recession of summer monsoons,and intensification of the winter monsoons.Studies have indicated that the four ACCs occurring in the early Holocene may be related to freshwater pulses from ice melting in the northern part of the North Atlantic,and the other five ACCs that occurred during the middle and late Holocene may be related to the decreased solar activity.

Detection and attribution of abrupt climate changes in the last one hundred years

Based on physical backgrounds, the four time series of the Guliya （Tibetan plateau） ice core （GIC） 5180, and three natural factors, i.e. the rotation rate of earth, sunspots, and E1 Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） signals, are decomposed into two hierarchies, i.e. more and less than 10-year hierarchies respectively, and then the running t-test is used to reanalyse the data before and after filtering with the purpose of investigating the contribution of natural factors to the abrupt climate changes in the last one hundred years. The results show that the GIC 5180 evolved with a quasi-period of 7-9 years, and the abrupt climate changes in the early 1960s and in the period from the end of the 1970s to the beginning of the 1980s resulted from the joint effect of the two hierarchies, in other words, the two interdecadal abrupt changes of climate in the last one hundred years were global. The interannual variations of ENSO and sunspots were the important triggering factors for the abrupt climate changes in the last one hundred years. At the same time, the method of Information Transfer （IT） is employed to estimate the contributions of ENSO signals and sunspots activities to the abrupt climate changes, and it is found that the contribution of the interannual variation of ENSO signals is relatively large.

Trends and abrupt changes in surface vapor content over Tarim Basin during the last 50 years

The surface vapor content has a close correlation with the generation of precipitation. Based on the atmospheric circulation data and surface vapor content data from 37 weather stations across the Tarim Basin dur- ing 1961-2010, the paper analyzed the vapor variation trend, period, abrupt changes and their causes. The results show that the increase trend of surface vapor content over the Tarim Basin mostly conforms with the average trend coefficient of 0.48. There were 3 centers displaying a trend of high vapor increase and 3 centers displaying a low vapor increase. These centers were distributed in strips and blocks across the basin from northeast to southwest. Notable inter-decadal variations in annual and seasonal vapor contents occurred in the Tarim Basin during the 50 years of the study period, with more vapor after the mid-1980s and less vapor in the 1960s and the 1970s. The significant increase in vapor content in the 50 year period occurred mostly in the 1980s and the 1990s. The in- creasing trend across the four seasons was strongest in summer, reaching 0.43, and weakest in spring. Great variations existed between the spring trend and the annual, summer, autumn and winter trends. During the 50-year study period, there are distinguishable periods of 4-6 years and 8-10 years in which the annual and seasonal vapor contents varied alternately between low and high concentrations. The annual vapor content and that of the four individual seasons all changed abruptly in about the mid-1980s （a〈0.05）. The west wind circulation, Tibetan Plateau circulation and the annual mean temperatures of the Tarim Basin are the main factors that influenced the surface vapor content over the study area, of which the Tibetan Plateau circulation may be the most important one.

Abrupt changes of radiolarian fauna at 600 and 120 ka B. P. in the southern South China Sea and their paleoceanographic implications

Abrupt changes in radiolarian composition are discovered over the last 600 and 120 ka B. P. based on quantitative analyses of radiolarians in ~ 17957 - 2 of the southern South China Sea. The distinct changes at 600 ka B. P. could correspond to the onset of the 100 ka cycle during the glacial and interglacial periods. This abrupt change in the 100 ka cyclicity at 600 ka B. P. occurred also in the magnetic susceptibility signal that is obtained from and paleosol sequences of the China Loss Plateau. The larger amplitude and stronger cyclicity in the susceptibility signal after 600 ka B. P. reflect the prominent change in the intensity of the monsoon, induced by an enhancement of the momsoon circula- tion. Stronger seasonality during the glacial period in the South China Sea, resulted from strengthening of winter monsoon, might lead to the changes in the radiolarian composition at 600 and 120 ka B. P. It can be suggested that only species adapted to a broader temperature range might have been able to live in this environment. Therefore, the abrupt changes in radiolarian composition at 600 and 120 ka B. P. could be attributed to the stronger so differences between summer and winter that were caused by the striking change in the intensity of the monsoon circulation.

Abrupt change of winter temperature over the Mongolian Plateau during 1961-2017

Studying the abrupt change of winter temperature(ACWT)over the Mongolian Plateau(MP,including Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and State of Mongolia)is of great significance for understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and the mechanism of global climate change.Monthly temperature data during 1961–2017was collected,and the abrupt change point was determined by the Mann–Kendall test and sliding ttest,to analyze the characteristics and causes of ACWT.The results showed that(a)The winter temperature has rapidly increased with a trend of 0.41℃/10a,which was significantly higher than that of the rest area of Chinese mainland,indicating that climate change in the MP was more sensitive to global warming.(b)The abrupt change point occurred in 1988,with temperature of-15.5℃and-14.1℃before and after abrupt change,respectively.The ACWT in 50°N was 1–3 years later than that in 40°N,and the isotherms of different temperatures moved northward by 10–200 km,especially-16℃isotherms moved approximately 200 km northward after 1988.(c)The Arctic Oscillation(AO)and Mongolian High(MH)anomaly affects winter temperature over the MP.When the AO is unusually strong,the MH and East Asian winter monsoon are weak,and southerly winds prevail in most regions,which is not conducive to the cold air developing southward,leading to higher winter temperature in the MP.Overwise,abnormally northerly winds prevail and temperature is low.Meanwhile,the abrupt change time of AO occurred in 1987 before winter temperature.It shows that the AO indirectly causes winter temperatures to rise by influencing the MH and is also the main driving factor of ACWT.

EVIDENCE FOR ABRUPT CLIMATIC CHANGES ON NORTHWESTERN MARGIN OF EAST ASIAN MONSOON REGION DURING LAST DEGLACIATION

Based on investigations of the Zhongwei Nanshan aeolian section situated in the southeastern margin of Tengger Desert, carbon-14 and TL (thermoluminescence) dating results and paleoclimatic proxies such as magnetic susceptibility and grain size, we inferred that the northwestern margin of East Asian monsoon region experienced abrupt climatic changes during the last deglaciation. Six oscillation events were identified: Oldest Dryas, Bolling, Older Dryas, Allerod, Intra-Allerod Cold Period (IACP) and Younger Dryas (YD). The summer monsoon was weaker during Oldest Dryas and Younger Dryas when the winter monsoon was stronger. However, during the B/A (Bolling/Allerod) period, the summer monsoon strengthened, reflected by magnetic susceptibility, when the winter monsoon also became strong, which is different from the paleoclimatic pattern established in the East Asian monsoon region. Furthermore, the summer monsoon was nearly in phase with the climate changes inferred from the oxygen isotopic records of Greenland ice cores. It could be speculated that the variations of the sea ice cover in the high latitudes of the North Hemisphere affected the high pressure of Asian continent and the changes of the winter monsoon inland. On the other hand, the sea ice cover variations might have indirectly caused the occurrence of ENSO events that has tightly been related to the summer monsoon in northwest margin of East Asian monsoon region.

Evolving Perspectives on Abrupt Seasonal Changes of the General Circulation

Professor Duzheng YE（Tu-cheng YEH） was decades ahead of his time in proposing a model experiment to investigate whether abrupt seasonal changes of the general circulation can arise through circulation feedbacks alone, unrelated to underlying inhomogeneities at the lower boundary. Here, we introduce Professor YEH＇s ideas during the 1950 s and 1960 s on the general circulation and summarize the results and suggestions of Yeh et al.（1959） on abrupt seasonal changes. We then review recent advances in understanding abrupt seasonal changes arising from model experiments like those proposed by Yeh et al.（1959）. The model experiments show that circulation feedbacks can indeed give rise to abrupt seasonal transitions.In these transitions, large-scale eddies that originate in midlatitudes and interact with the zonal mean flow and meridional overturning circulations in the tropics play central roles.

A GCM Study on the Mechanism of Seasonal Abrupt Changes

In this paper the observational studies and some related dynamical and numerical researches on seasonal abrupt changes were reviewed first. Then a speculation that the seasonal variation of insolation and the nonlinear dynamic interaction account for the abrupt changes was put forward and was asserted by a set of GCM sensitivity experiments. The results show that the abrupt changes would exist in case that all the earth surface was grass land and there was no topography. However, many factors may have influences on the abrupt changes. Hence this phenomenon is quite complicated and needs further investigations.

Eternal Climate Change Patterns and the Causes and Countermeasures of Global Climate Change

It is an objective fact that the weather is unpredictable.Even the famous meteorologist,Academician Chu Ko Chen,has only a partial understanding of the changing laws of wind and rain.Even though ancient people summarized the 24 solar terms by observing the annual activities of the sun for a long time,because they ignored the impact of the activities of the moon on the Earth’s climate change on a small scale,the 24 solar terms they summarized often could not accurately predict the change of the Earth’s climate.Therefore,the author studied the influence of lunar activities on the Earth’s climate change,finds out the law of the influence of lunar activities on the Earth’s climate change on a small scale,and summarizes the eternal climate change pattern determined by the activities of the sun and the moon.In addition,the author also reveals the causes and countermeasures of global warming and the frequent occurrence of extreme weather as well as environmental change.

Change Point Analysis to Detect the Effect of Pruning Severity on Tree Growth

The effect of pruning severity on tree growth was analyzed by change point detection using segmented regression. The present study applied this analysis to a well-known published data set including diameter growth response, tree age, pruning severity and pretreatment crown size. First, multiple regression analysis was performed to assess the effect of tree age, pruning severity and pretreatment crown size on diameter growth response. Next, segmented regression analysis was performed to assess the effect of pruning severity on diameter growth response. The results of the multiple regression showed that diameter growth response was significantly influenced by pruning severity and pretreatment crown size. The results of the segmented regression showed that in the whole data set, an abrupt change toward a decrease in diameter growth response was detected at 25% of the live crown removed. However, in the group of fully crowned and open-grown, diameter growth response continuously decreased with increasing pruning severity with no significant abrupt change, whereas in the group of 70% - 90% live crown, diameter growth response did not significantly decrease up to the break point (53% crown removed) and then abruptly decreased. This may be the first study to show the numerical evaluation of the effect of pruning severity on tree growth by change point analysis.

Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Climate Changes in the Urumqi River Basin of Tianshan Mountain over 50 years

Based on the meteorological data during 1959-2008 from five representative weather stations in the Urumqi River Basin and surrounding areas,the regional characteristics of temperature and precipitation in the basin featuring multi-climatic zones were studied by means of some methods including wavelet analysis.As was shown in the results,the temperature in the whole Urumqi River Basin demonstrated a significant upward trend.The temperature increase particularly in autumn and winter made the greatest contribution to the marked ascent.The interdecadal temperature in the basin showed a tendency to decline before the period during 1970s-1980s while it was on the rise after 1990s on the whole.The most concentrated period of temperature mutations was in the late 1990s.At the same time,the precipitation also showed an escalating trend,which experienced a stage of unanimous upward trend after 1990s.The most concentrated period of precipitation mutations was in the early 1990s.

Abrupt Climate Change around 4 ka BP:Role of the Thermohaline Circulation as Indicated by a GCM Experiment

A great deal of palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic evidence suggests that a predominant temperature drop and an aridiflcation occurred at ca. 4.0 ka BP. Palaeoclimate studies in China support this dedution. The collapse of ancient civilizations at ca. 4.0 ka BP in the Nile Valley and Mesopotamia has been attributed to climate-induced aridification. A widespread alternation of the ancient cultures was also found in China at ca. 4.0 ka BP in concert with the collapse of the civilizations in the Old World. Palaeoclimatic studies indicate that the abrupt climate change at 4.0 ka BP is one of the realizations of the cold phase in millennial scale climate oscillations, which may be related to the modulation of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC) over the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, this study conducts a numerical experiment of a GCM with SST forcing to simulate the impact of the weakening of the THC. Results show a drop in temperature from North Europe, the northern middle East Asia, and northern East Asia and a significant reduction of precipitation in East Africa, the Middle East, the Indian Peninsula, and the Yellow River Valley. This seems to support the idea that coldness and aridification at ca. 4.0 ka BP was caused by the weakening of the THC.

The Interdecadal Changes of South Pacific Sea Surface Temperature in the Mid-1990s and Their Connections with ENSO

The characteristic changes of South Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） for the period January 1979 to December 2011, during which the 1990s Pacific pan-decadal variability （PDV） interdecadal regime shifts occurred, were examined. Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF） analysis was applied to the monthly mean SSTA for two sub-periods： January 1979 to December 1994 （P 1） and January 1996 to December 2011 （P2）. Both the spatial and temporal features of the leading EOF mode for P1 and P2 showed a remarkable difference. The spatial structure of the leading EOF changed from a tripolar pattern for P 1 （EOF-P 1） to a dipole-like pattern for P2 （EOF-P2）. Besides, EOF-P 1 （EOF-P2） had significant spectral peaks at 4.6 yr （2.7 yr）. EOF-P2 not only had a closer association with E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO）, but also showed a faster response to ENSO than EOF-P1 based on their lead-lag relationships with ENSO. During the development of ENSO, the South Pacific SSTA associated with ENSO for both PI and P2 showed a significant eastward propagation. However, after the peak of ENSO, EOF-P1 showed a stronger persistence than EOF-P2, which still showed eastward propagation. The variability of the SSTA associated with the whole process of ENSO evolution during P1 and the SSTA associated with the development of ENSO during P2 support the existence of ocean-to-atmosphere forcing, but the SSTA associated with the decay of ENSO shows the phenomenon of atmosphere-to-ocean forcing.

Abrupt temperature change and a warming hiatus from 1951 to 2014 in Inner Mongolia, China

An abrupt temperature change and a warming hiatus have strongly influenced the global climate.This study focused on these changes in Inner Mongolia, China. This study used the central clustering method, Mann-Kendall mutation test and other methods to explore the abrupt temperature change and warming hiatus in three different temperature zones of the study region based on average annual data series.Among the temperature metrics investigated, average minimum temperature(Tnav) shifted the earliest,followed by average temperature(Tnv) and average maximum temperature(Txav). The latest change was observed in summer(1990 s), whereas the earliest was observed in winter(1970 s). Before and after the abrupt temperature change, Tnav fluctuated considerably, whereas there was only a slight change in Txav.Before and after the abrupt temperature change, the winter temperature changed more dramatically than the summer temperature. Before the abrupt temperature change, Tnav in the central region(0.322°C/10 a)and west region(0.48°C/10 a) contributed the most to the increasing temperatures. After the abrupt temperature change, Tnav in winter in the central region(0.519°C/10 a) and in autumn in the west region(0.729°C/10 a) contributed the most to the temperature increases. Overall, in the years in which temperature shifts occurred early, a warming hiatus also appeared early. The three temperature metrics in spring(1991)in the east region were the first to exhibit a warming hiatus. In the east region, Txav displayed the lowest rate of increase(0.412°C/a) in the period after the abrupt temperature change and before the warming hiatus,and the highest rate of increase after the warming hiatus.

Early warning signals of abrupt temperature change in different regions of China over the past 50 years

In this paper, the early warning signals of abrupt temperature change in different regions of China are investigated. Seven regions are divided on the basis of different climate temperature patterns, obtained through the rotated empirical orthogonal function, and the signal-to-noise temperature ratios for each region are then calculated. Based on the concept of critical slowing down, the temperature data that contain noise in the different regions of China are preprocessed to study the early warning signals of abrupt climate change. First, the Mann-Kendall method is used to identify the instant of abrupt climate change in the temperature data. Second, autocorrelation coefficients that can identify critical slowing down are calculated. The results show that the critical slowing down phenomenon appeared in temperature data about 5-10 years before abrupt climate change occurred, which indicates that the critical slowing down phenomenon is a possible early warning signal for abrupt climate change, and that noise has less influence on the detection results of the early warning signals. Accordingly, this demonstrates that the model is reliable in identifying the early warning signals of abrupt climate change based on detecting the critical slowing down phenomenon, which provides an experimental basis for the actual application of the method.

Comparison of performance between rescaled range analysis and rescaled variance analysis in detecting abrupt dynamic change

In the present paper, a comparison of the performance between moving cutting data-rescaled range analysis （MC- R/S） and moving cutting data-rescaled variance analysis （MC-V/S） is made. The results clearly indicate that the operating efficiency of the MC-R/S algorithm is higher than that of the MC-V/S algorithm. In our numerical test, the computer time consumed by MC-V/S is approximately 25 times that by MC-R/S for an identical window size in artificial data. Except for the difference in operating efficiency, there are no significant differences in performance between MC-R/S and MC-V/S for the abrupt dynamic change detection. Mc-R/s and MC-V/S both display some degree of anti-noise ability. However, it is important to consider the influences of strong noise on the detection results of MC-R/S and MC-V/S in practical application

A bruptchanges in an 8000-year precipitationreconst ruction for Nevada,the Western USA

A scanning t-test algorithm for detecting multiple time-scale abrupt changes in the level of a time-series was used to analyze an 8000 year time series of annual precipitation which was reconstructed from tree rings for the Nevada Climate Division 3 in the western USA. The tree ring samples were gathered from eight states in the southwestern USA. Twenty-two change-points were identified by the algorithm and these were used to partition the tree-ring series into twenty-three relatively Wet/Normal/Dry episodes. These twenty-three episodes were collaborated by a coherency analysis of abrupt changes between the precipitation reconstruction series and the TIC/δ^18O records from cored sediments of Pyramid Lake in Nevada, and by comparison with published results from related studies. These episodes were also compared with studies of the global climate change and with records of climate change in China during the same periods. The results suggest that the precipitation reconstruction series is quite valuable for climate-change research on multi-centurial time-scales in the western USA, and that the scanning t-test and coherency detection algorithms may have a wide use for detecting multiple time-scale abrupt changes in a long time series. As the TIC and δ^18O record series are high resolution with unequal sampling intervals ranging between 3 and 14 years, a new algorithm was developed to deal with the unequal time intervals in the series.

A study of the early warning signals of abrupt change in the Pacific decadal oscillation

In recent years, the phenomenon of a critical slowing down has demonstrated its major potential in discovering whether a complex dynamic system tends to abruptly change at critical points. This research on the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO) index has been made on the basis of the critical slowing down principle in order to analyze its early warning signal of abrupt change. The chaotic characteristics of the PDO index sequence at different times are determined by using the largest Lyapunov exponent(LLE). The relationship between the regional sea surface temperature(SST) background field and the early warning signal of the PDO abrupt change is further studied through calculating the variance of the SST in the PDO region and the spatial distribution of the autocorrelation coefficient, thereby providing the experimental foundation for the extensive application of the method of the critical slowing down phenomenon. Our results show that the phenomenon of critical slowing down, such as the increase of the variance and autocorrelation coefficient, will continue for six years before the abrupt change of the PDO index. This phenomenon of the critical slowing down can be regarded as one of the early warning signals of an abrupt change. Through calculating the LLE of the PDO index during different times, it is also found that the strongest chaotic characteristics of the system occurred between 1971 and 1975 in the early stages of an abrupt change(1976), and the system was at the stage of a critical slowing down, which proves the reliability of the early warning signal of abrupt change discovered in 1970 from the mechanism. In addition, the variance of the SST,along with the spatial distribution of the autocorrelation coefficient in the corresponding PDO region, also demonstrates the corresponding relationship between the change of the background field of the SST and the change of the PDO.

THE ABRUPT CHANGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE NUMBER OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC IN THE MID-1990s

Based on the CMA tropical cyclone(TC) best track data as well as the reanalysis datasets from the NCEP/NCAR and NOAA, the variation characteristics of TC number from 1949 to 2013 over the western North Pacific(including the South China Sea) are examined. Notably, the time series of TC number exhibits a significant abrupt change from more to less around 1995. Comparative analysis indicates that the environmental factors necessary to TC formation also change significantly around the mid-1990 s. After 1995, accompanying with anomalous warm sea surface temperature(SST) in western equatorial Pacific, a La Nia-like pattern in tropical Pacific appears obviously. However,compared with the period before 1995, the vertical upward movement decreases, vertical shear of tropospheric zonal wind increases, and sea level pressure(SLP) rises, all of which are unfavorable to TC formation and work together to make TC number reduce markedly after 1995. Furthermore, when the typical interannual more and less TCs years are selected in the two separate stages before and after 1995, the relative importance of oceanic and atmospheric environments in interannual TC generation is also investigated respectively. The results imply that the SST over the tropical Pacific exerts relatively important influence on TC formation before 1995 whereas the atmospheric circulation plays a more prominent role in the generation of TC after 1995.