长三角城市群经济韧性测度与分析——基于Shift-Share的经济韧性分解

以长三角城市群27个城市为研究对象,测度2008—2010年抵抗期和2010—2019年恢复期城市群经济韧性水平,并进一步运用Shift-Share分解方法探索长三角城市群经济韧性内在影响机制。研究显示:抵抗期和恢复期中长三角城市群经济韧性均值分别为0.309和0.301,均强于全国层面经济韧性水平;Shift-Share分解后发现竞争力分量对各城市经济韧性水平提升起到决定性作用,抵抗期阶段主要由第二、三产业共同作用影响经济韧性水平;恢复期阶段则以第二产业竞争力为主导力量,同时以第三产业竞争力作为辅助力量。通过实证探究长三角城市群经济一体化发展的规律和特点,为增强中国经济韧性提出相关建议,助力中国经济高质量发展。

Pairwise Shared Genealogical Ancestry in Structured Populations

Simulation was used to investigate the effects of population structure and migration on metrics of pairwise shared ancestry. Random and hierarchical structures, or migration geometries, were examined. Compared to panmictic populations, progress to all qualitative metrics of pairwise ancestry is delayed in structured populations. However, unless migration is very low, the time required is generally less than triple and often less than twice that required in a panmictic population of the same total size. Population structure also increases, to a similar degree, the time required for a population-wide most recent common ancestor (MRCA). As a result, the relationships between various qualitative metrics of pairwise shared ancestry and MRCA time are relatively unaffected by population structure. For example, the mean time to most recent shared ancestor (MRSA) with global sampling of pairs is 40% - 50% of the MRCA time for almost all simulated structures and migration levels. Quantitative pairwise genealogical overlap is strongly affected by population structure. With global sampling, pairwise quantitative overlap never approaches 1.0, as it does in panmictic populations;and instead eventually becomes stationary at much lower values. Possible implications of the present results for human pairwise shared ancestry are discussed. For globally sampled pairs, the longest time to most recent shared ancestor (MRSA) for humans is suggested to be approximately 2100 years before the present. If generation time is 30 years, then all humans are 69th, or closer, cousins. For people with recent European ancestry, the MRSA time may be only half as long, about 1000 years.

基于改进Theil指数和Shift-Share模型的2012—2021年中国产业偏离分析

文章首先通过对现有文献的梳理和分析,发现针对产业偏离的测算,传统的产业偏离度E系数、Theil指数及Shift-Share模型均存在一定的缺陷,E系数和Theil指数的缺陷主要体现在计算原理方面,而Shift-Share模型的缺陷主要表现在参照系选择的合理性和数据采集的可行性方面。然后,基于现有模型的基本原理,提出了更为合理和更具可操作性的产业偏离测算方法,再采用实证研究的方法,根据2012—2021年的数据,对中国的产业偏离情况进行具体分析,得出尽管中国存在产业偏离,但产业偏离度在逐渐减小。最后,基于修正模型的计算结果,并结合当前的国际国内环境,提出如下政策建议:1)第一产业要依靠创新和科技引领,促进农村劳动力在城乡间有序转移,实现农业生产的规模化和现代化;2)第二产业要加快产业的升级换代,建立和保持独立、自主、完整的工业体系,加大在基础研究方面的投入,尽早突破美西方的技术封锁;3)第三产业的发展重点应该在金融和科教两个方面,要进一步提升香港地区、上海和北京等城市的世界金融中心地位,依靠金融创新来规避现行国际金融体系的不利约束和影响,同时要将科教兴国战略落到实处,努力探索适合中国国情的从小学到大学各阶段的教育模式。

Effects of Commodity Trade Structure Variations on Labor' s Share of Income in China——An Empirical Study Based on Data of Production Industry Sectors

Proceeding from trade structure variations,this paper provides a new perspective on the study of the share of labor income in China.China's commodity trade structure has experienced a step change in recent years.According to theoretical analysis,trade exerts not only a direct effect on the share of labor income through international division of labor and specialization but also an indirect effect through factor intensity variations and technology progress bias.Empirical study discovered that export has a significant negative effect on the share of China's labor income while import has a positive effect.Import and export have different levels and directions of effect on sectors with different factor intensity.

Industrial Structure and Competitive Strength of 31 Provincial Districts——A GIS-based Dynamic Shift-Share Analysis

By using the dynamic shift-share analysis, the industrial structure and competitive strength of 31 provincial districts except Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao are studied by taking the GDP of the three industries as the research entrance and the whole nation as the reference district. The industrial structure and competitive strength of each provincial district is measured. Through the analysis of pertinence, the correlation degree of industrial structure and industrial competitive strength to economic growth is analyzed. The results show that the industrial competitive strength is closely related to the economic growth of the 31 provincial districts, but the contribution made by the industrial structure to economic growth is insufficient and the effect of industrial structure does not match with that of industrial competitive strength. According to industrial competitiveness and industrial structure effect, 31 provincial districts of the whole nation are divided into 4 types and the relevant countermeasures of the four types are put forward.

Agricultural Structure in Western China by Comparing with before and after CFFG Based on Shift-share Method

Based on shift-share method,this article employs regional share,structural shift and competitive shift to analyze the structural benefit and competitive position of agricultural structure in western China by comparing with agriculture,foresting,stockbreeding and fishing before and after Conversion of Farmland to Forest and Grassland(CFFG) .Then authors draw following conclusion:while CFFG program has been put in practice,the agricultural structure in western China has some typical characteristics,such as growth faster,structural predominance obvious and more competitive.But the contributiveness from the competition is not too much yet,and the structural benefit of forest estate and stockbreeding are restrained.

Industrial Structure Evolution and Economic Growth in Dingxi City Based on Shift-Share Method and Location Quotient Analysis

According to the statistical data in the years 2004-2008, both Shift-Share Analysis and Location Quotient Analysis are used to compare the economic development status of counties (districts) in Dingxi City in the years 2004 and 2008. Advantages and disadvantages of industrial structure and competitiveness are analyzed, as well as the impacts of existing industrial structure on economic growth. Development direction and development focus of primary, secondary and tertiary industries are found out. Countermeasures for accelerating the economic development of counties (districts) in Dingxi City are put forward, such as increasing the inputs in characteristic agriculture, promoting the development of primary industry, speeding up the construction of large and medium industrial enterprises, enhancing the development of secondary industry, strengthening comprehensive environmental improvement in tourist area, and actively developing tertiary industry.

An Efficient and Secure Multi-Secret Sharing Scheme with General Access Structures

A multiple secret sharing scheme can share a group of secrets in each sharing session, which is very useful especially in sharing large secrets. However, most of the existing multiple secret sharing schemes are （t, n） threshold schemes, so they are fit for only threshold applications and unfit for the applications of general access structures. Due to the fact that a （t, n） threshold scheme could only handle a small fraction of the secret sharing idea, a novel multi-secret sharing scheme is proposed, which is designed based on general access structures. The security of this scheme is the same as that of Shamir＇s threshold secret sharing scheme. Compared with the existing multiple secret sharing schemes, the proposed scheme can provide greater capabilities for many applications because it is able to deal with applications of general access structures.

Empirical Study on Effect of Industrial Structure Change on Regional Economic Growth of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region

Based on the data of gross domestic product(GDP),industrial added value and the proportion of industrial employees from 2000 to 2008,this paper studies the effect of industrial structure change on the regional economic growth of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region in China using the shift-share method.The results show that:1) In the 21st century,the industrial output of three industries,namely,primary,secondary,and tertiary,and the GDP grew rapidly in the study period.The tertiary industry grew the fastest;it had the largest contribution to the GDP and mean-while had become the most competitive industry in the metropolitan region.2) The development of cities within the region was not balanced.Firstly,compared with Tianjin,Beijing,as one of the two core cities,was more rational in the industrial structure.Secondly,the surrounding eight cities,which are Shijiazhuang,Qinhuangdao,Tangshan,Langfang,Baoding,Cangzhou,Zhangjiakou,and Chengde,were all uncompetitive than the two core cities.3) There was a great industrial gradient in the region(especially between the two core cities and the cities of Tangshan,Baoding,Zhangjia-kou,Chengde,Cangzhou,and Langfang).As a result,it is foreseeable that the industry transfer in the Bei-jing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region will be one of the trends in regional development,and the industry transfer is inevitably to promote the regional integration.

Research on Web-Based Product Structure and Configuration Management

An enhanced system architecture of Web-based product structure and configuration management system along with its, functions are is presented. The key techniques, such as construction of object models of product structure and product configuration, hybrid approach method in product configuration management, sharing and integration of heterogeneous product data, integration with other sub-systems, are discussed too. A prototype system is developed by J2EE technology.

Artificial Intelligence,Structural Change and Labor Income Share

Artificial intelligence(AI)is a strategic technology that leads a new round of technological revolution and structural transformation.This paper studies the effects of AI on structural change and factor income shares.As a general purpose technology and new infrastructure,AI may substitute either labor or capital and its application has differential prospects across sectors.With a multi-sector general dynamic equilibrium model,we find that AI services or AI-specific technologies will reallocate factors between sectors.The direction of the reallocation depends on sectoral differences in the output elasticity of AI and in the elasticity of substitution between AI and traditional modes of production.The process of structural change will in turn change the labor income share.This paper presents the theoretical conditions for the direction of these changes and the underlying economic mechanism.We derive policy implications about how to promote high-quality development with AI.

Quantitative Analysis of Contribution of Industrial Structure to Economic Growth in Jiangsu Province

The industrial structure in Jiangsu Province realizes the transformation from "secondary industry-primary industry-tertiary industry" to "tertiary industry-secondary industry-primary industry". However, the effectiveness of this model of industry-dominate industrial structure and the role of industrial structure pattern in promoting regional economic growth are yet to be researched. By using shift-share analysis method, we judge the importance of factors of industrial structure in regional economic growth of Jiangsu Province, and point out that factors of industrial structure are not the dominant forces in economic growth of Jiangsu Province; among the contributions of three industries to economic growth of Jiangsu Province, the contribution of the primary industry is greatest, followed by the contribution of secondary industry and the contribution of tertiary industry successively; real estate industry makes the greatest contribution to economic growth of Jiangsu Province; financial industry and construction industry make relatively small contributions; the potential of industry needs to be further developed. In the process of economic development of Jiangsu Province, the industrial structure is yet to be further optimized so as to give play to the role of industry in promoting the development of Jiangsu Province.

The Industrial Structure Efficiency of Gansu Province since the Start of Reform and Opening up

According to the time series data of relevant industries from 1978 to 2008 in Gansu Province,the industrial structure efficiency of Gansu Province is studied from different perspectives based on the overview of the analysis methods and by applying the analysis models including comparative labor productivity,deviation degree of industrial structure and shift-share analysis model.The results show that,in Gansu Province,the comparative labor productivity is low in the primary and tertiary industries,while that in the second industry is high;the deviation coefficient of industrial structure is big and the industrial structure and employment structure is extremely asymmetric;the proportion of sunrise industry is large and has great contribution to economic growth.However,the competiveness of the three main industries is relatively weak and need further improvement.

Analysis on Features of Agricultural Structure Change and Agricultural Competitiveness in Hubei Province

The output data of crop farming,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery in the Hubei Statistical Yearbook-2009 is used to analyze the features of agricultural structure change in Hubei Province since 1983;according to the relevant data in Hubei Statistical Yearbook and China Statistical Yearbook in 2005 and 2009,and adopting the shift-share analysis model,the difference in agricultural economic growth between Hubei and other provinces in Central China as well as the difference among the 17 regions of Hubei Province during 2004-2008 are analyzed.Results show that,the agriculture in Hubei Province shows significant overall advantages in central China and has stronger competitiveness,but its crop farming and fishery structure are not quite reasonable,and the competitive advantages of its fishery and agricultural services still need to be strengthened;the agricultural structure within Hubei Province sees an obvious regional differences,viewed from the total deviation,Huanggang,Jingmen and Yichang enjoy competitive edge in the whole province,from the viewpoint of industrial sectors,Huanggang is the most competitive in its planting,forestry and animal husbandry,while Jingmen is the strongest in fishery and Xiangfan has a competitive edge over others in its agricultural services.Based on those results above,it is proposed that Hubei Province should fully recognize its natural conditions,resources endowment and current differences in the economic status of each places,work out measures to suit local conditions,take full use of its advantages,extend its production chain and go on the development road with regional characteristics.

创意体验及分享行为对网红景点消费意愿的影响研究——以西安为例

随着文化与旅游的深度融合,网红景点打卡受到了越来越多游客的青睐,网红景点消费占文化旅游消费的比重也随之增大,对促进文化旅游消费和区域经济发展具有重要的意义。文章以西安为例,基于旅游体验和计划行为理论,构建文化创意体验对网红景点消费意愿影响的理论模型和结构方程模型,并根据284份有效问卷的调查数据检验研究假设,分析文化创意体验及分享行为对景点消费意愿的影响。研究结果表明:游客文化创意体验对网红景点消费意愿具有显著的直接影响,路径系数为0.231;旅游分享行为对消费意愿影响的路径系数为0.222;行为态度、主观规范和知觉行为控制变量的中介效应显著,分享行为能够通过三个中介变量显著正向影响消费意愿。因此,为实现文化旅游的高质量发展、增强消费意愿,应多渠道宣传、增强网红景点旅游体验质量,以增进游客旅游体验的消费意愿。

人工智能如何影响劳动收入份额——基于产业结构与企业升级的机制探讨

作为一项重要技术变革,人工智能在推动产业智能化的同时,势必对劳动力市场的要素收入分配产生重要影响。本文基于偏向性技术进步理论,运用2010—2021年中国城市与企业层面面板数据,从系统性视角考察人工智能对劳动收入份额的宏微观影响机制。研究结果显示:(1)人工智能应用在宏微观层面均有利于劳动收入份额增加,该结论在经过工具变量法、机器学习法估计等一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。(2)宏观层面,人工智能可通过产业结构高级化增加劳动收入份额。(3)微观层面,人工智能可通过提高创新质量、创新效率与全要素生产率来增加劳动收入份额。(4)人工智能对劳动收入份额的积极影响在城市层面的高人口规模、高市场化水平、高劳动力保护强度、高劳动力技能水平及企业层面的高企业规模、高劳动力技能水平、低劳动要素密集度的样本中尤为明显。研究结论为我国在数智化浪潮中完善收入分配制度、实现共同富裕提供了有益启示。

双重股权结构在公司治理中的应用研究

随着中国经济体制改革的加速,外部投资市场资金的流入给上市公司带来了不少机遇。然而,机遇往往伴随着挑战,如何在吸引外部资金的同时,保障创始人的控制权并确保公司的长期稳定发展成为了一个亟待解决的问题。在这样的背景下,双重股权结构应运而生,成为保障创始人控制权的重要手段。文章阐述了双重股权结构的概念、特征、优势与不足,并结合公司治理对双重股权结构的应用提出了针对性的建议,对促进我国资本市场和企业的健康发展具有重要意义。

企业数字化转型的劳动收入分配效应研究

在数字经济和双循环新发展格局大背景下,基于企业数字化转型视角探究收入分配问题具有重要的意义。借助2007—2021年A股上市公司数据实证检验企业数字化转型对劳动收入份额的影响效应,研究结果表明:第一,企业数字化转型有助于提升劳动收入份额,且该结论具有稳健性;第二,融资约束效应、人力资本结构效应及内部控制效应是企业数字化转型提升劳动收入份额的重要渠道;第三,企业数字化转型的劳动收入分配效应存在行业、所有制、科技属性方面的异质性,且对劳动密集型企业、非国有企业及高科技企业产生明显偏好;第四,企业数字化转型存在劳动收入份额提升与企业高质量发展的双重效应,实现了员工福利与企业发展的互利共赢。研究结论可以在微观层面上提供关于技术进步对劳动收入份额影响的证据,为新时期收入分配结构的优化提供了决策参考。

农村居民健康信息分享行为影响因素研究

文章以TAM模型为基础构建了农村居民健康信息分享行为影响因素模型,借助结构方程模型验证了模型的有效性,并对问卷结果展开实证分析,根据结果提出降低虚假健康信息造成的危害应当要重点保障健康信息的质量,完善农村的信息基础设施建设,加强农村居民个人信息安全的监管,营造良好的社会影响,加强对农村居民的数字素养教育。