Structured Multi-Head Attention Stock Index Prediction Method Based Adaptive Public Opinion Sentiment Vector

The present study examines the impact of short-term public opinion sentiment on the secondary market,with a focus on the potential for such sentiment to cause dramatic stock price fluctuations and increase investment risk.The quantification of investment sentiment indicators and the persistent analysis of their impact has been a complex and significant area of research.In this paper,a structured multi-head attention stock index prediction method based adaptive public opinion sentiment vector is proposed.The proposedmethod utilizes an innovative approach to transform numerous investor comments on social platforms over time into public opinion sentiment vectors expressing complex sentiments.It then analyzes the continuous impact of these vectors on the market through the use of aggregating techniques and public opinion data via a structured multi-head attention mechanism.The experimental results demonstrate that the public opinion sentiment vector can provide more comprehensive feedback on market sentiment than traditional sentiment polarity analysis.Furthermore,the multi-head attention mechanism is shown to improve prediction accuracy through attention convergence on each type of input information separately.Themean absolute percentage error(MAPE)of the proposedmethod is 0.463%,a reduction of 0.294% compared to the benchmark attention algorithm.Additionally,the market backtesting results indicate that the return was 24.560%,an improvement of 8.202% compared to the benchmark algorithm.These results suggest that themarket trading strategy based on thismethod has the potential to improve trading profits.

Tree structure and diversity shape the biomass of primary temperate mountain forests

Primary forests are spatially diverse terrestrial ecosystems with unique characteristics,being naturally regenerative and heterogeneous,which supports the stability of their carbon storage through the accumulation of live and dead biomass.Yet,little is known about the interactions between biomass stocks,tree genus diversity and structure across a temperate montane primary forest.Here,we investigated the relationship between tree structure(variability in basal area and tree size),genus-level diversity(abundance,tree diversity)and biomass stocks in temperate primary mountain forests across Central and Eastern Europe.We used inventory data from726 permanent sample plots from mixed beech and spruce across the Carpathian Mountains.We used nonlinear regression to analyse the spatial variability in forest biomass,structure,and genus-level diversity and how they interact with plot-level tree age,disturbances,temperature and altitude.We found that the combined effects of genus and structural indices were important for addressing the variability in biomass across different spatial scales.Local processes in disturbance regimes and uneven tree age support forest hete rogeneity and the accumulation of live and dead biomass through the natural regeneration,growth and decay of the forest ecosystem.Structural complexities in basal area index,supporte d by genus-level abundance,positively influence total biomass stocks,which was modulated by tree age and disturbances.Spruce forests showed higher tree density and basal area than mixed beech forests,though mixed beech still contributes significantly to biomass across landscapes.Forest heterogeneity was strongly influenced by complexities in forest composition(tree genus diversity,structure).We addressed the importance of primary forests as stable carbon stores,achieved through structure and diversity.Safeguarding such ecosystems is critical for ensuring the stability of the primary forest,carbon store and biodiversity into the future.

A Critical Review of the Effects of Stock Returns and Market Timing on Capital Structure

Capital structure is regarded as the combination of debt and equity firms used to finance operations and investments.The choice of capital structure significantly impacts a company’s cost of capital,profitability,and risk profile.Among a series of factors that affect capital structure,this paper focuses on stock returns and market timing.In this review,an array of papers is analyzed to summarize what current research claims regarding the influence of stock returns and market timing on capital structure.This paper centers on the stock return and market timing theories and also discusses other theories like the trade-off theory,the pecking order theory,and the signaling theory.

STUDY OF REENGINEERING THE STOCK EQUITY STRUCTURE IN CHINESE STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISE REFORM

In this paper,it is first briefly described the basic situation and current policies of state owned enterprise reform in China.Then the major issues in the reform process are identified,the possible solutions in terms of reengineering stock equity structure and state share circulation are discussed,and finally some suggestions are made for the further state owned enterprise reform.Basing on the theory on the modern corporation system,relevant experiences of market economy nations and the practice of Chinese enterprise system reform.The approaches to determine the proportion of state share in the future corporations are proposed.Since the public ownership is not ideologically appropriate,the establishment of social security fund and mutual fund investment companies are suggested as new and acceptable pattern of public ownership.It is believed that these companies will be the major institutional shareholders in the future corporations.Their stock equity structure would mainly consist of institutional shareholders,which will be both consistent with international norms of modern corporations and with socialist public ownership with Chinese characteristics.

Stable isotopic composition of otoliths in identification of stock structure of small yellow croaker(Larimichthys polyactis) in China

Oxygen and carbon isotope ratios（δ^（18）O and δ^（13）C） in otoliths were used to identify the stock structure of small yellow croaker,Larimichthys polyactis.Otoliths were collected from fish at five locations across the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea representing most of their distributional range and fisheries areas.The significant differences in the isotopic signatures showed that the five locations could be chemically distinguished and clearly separated,indicating stock subdivision.Correlation of δ^（18）O and δ^（13）C values suggested that population of L.polyactis could be divided into the Bohai Sea group,the southern Yellow Sea group and the central Yellow Sea group.Discriminant analysis of δ^（18）O and δ^（13）C values demonstrated a high significant difference with 85.7% classification accuracy.The spatial separation of L.polyactis indicated a complex stock structure across the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea.These results indicate that optimal fisheries management may require a comprehensive consideration on the current spatial arrangements.This study has provided further evidence that measurement of the stable isotopes ratios in otolith can be a valuable tool in the delineation of fishery management units.

Permanence and global attractivity of stage-structured predator-prey model with continuous harvesting on predator and impulsive stocking on prey

We investigate a stage-structured delayed predator-prey model with impulsive stocking on prey and continuous harvesting on predator. According to the fact of biological resource management, we improve the assumption of a predator-prey model with stage structure for predator population that each individual predator has the same ability to capture prey. It is assumed that the immature and mature individuals of the predator population are divided by a fixed age, and immature predator population does not have the ability to attach prey. Sufficient conditions are obtained, which guarantee the global attractivity of predator-extinction periodic solution and the permanence of the system. Our results show that the behavior of impulsive stocking on prey plays an important role for the permanence of the system, and provide tactical basis for the biological resource management. Numerical analysis is presented to illuminate the dynamics of the system.

Evaluation of the performance of alternative assessment configurations to account for the spatial heterogeneity in age-structure: a simulation study based on Indian Ocean albacore tuna

Various population structures or spatial heterogeneities in population distribution have been an important source of model misspecification and have had an impact on estimation performance in fisheries stock assessment.In this study,we simulated the Indian Ocean albacore spatial heterogeneity in age-structure using Stock Synthesis according to the stage-dependent migration rate and region-dependent fishing mortality rate and generated the stock assessment data.Based on these data,we investigated the performances of different spatial configurations,selectivity curves and selections of CPUE(catch per unit effort)indices of the assessment models which were used to account for spatial heterogeneity.The results showed:(1)although the spatially explicit configurations,which exactly matched the operating model,provided unbiased and accurate estimates of relative spawning biomass,relative fishing mortality rate and maximum sustainable yield in all simulation scenarios,their performance may be very poor if there were mismatches between them and the operating model due to gaps in knowledge and data;(2)for spatially explicit assessment configuration,the correct boundary was required,but for non-spatially explicit assessment configuration,it seemed more important for analysts to partition the area to properly reflect the transition in field data and to effectively account for the impacts of ignoring the spatial structure by using the additional spatially referenced parameters;(3)although the areas-as-fleets methods and flexible time-varying selectivity curves could be used as better alternative approaches to account for spatial structure,these configurations could not completely eliminate the impacts of model misspecification and the quality of estimates of different quantities from the same assessment model may be inconsistent or the performance of the same assessment configuration may fluctuate significantly between simulation scenarios;(4)although the worst estimates could generally be avoided by using multiple CPUE indices,there were no best solutions to select or regenerate the CPUE indices to account for the impacts of the ignored spatial structure to obviously improve the quality of stock assessment.Compared with the results of assessment model configurations which are used to account for the spatial structure by different modelers,the performances of the configurations are always casespecific except for spatially explicit configurations which exactly match the operating model.In this sense,our study will not only provide some insights into the current Indian Ocean albacore stock assessment but also enrich existing knowledge regarding the performance of assessment configurations to account for spatial structure.

Capital and Labor Allocation Structure and China's Economic Growth

Using sector-specific growth accounting method, this paper investigates the growth effect of inter-industry allocation of capital and labor in China. This paper has found that existing investment data are classified according to investment entities rather than user entities and directly using such data for the measurement of capital inventory of various sectors will seriously overestimate the capital inventory of tertiary industry and lead to distorted conclusions of "structural burden" of capital allocation and its serious violation of the principle of efficiency. By excluding real estate sector, this paper has found that after the 1990 s, inter-industry capital allocation had been generally consistent with the principle of efficiency and the effect of capital allocation structure is not significant. Our estimates also found that the growth effect arising from the inter-industry allocation of labor since reform and opening up averages 0.63 percentage points, which is significantly positively correlated with residual economic growth rate and residual TFP and demonstrates a decade-long "reform cycle." According to the comparative study on the effect of labor allocation structure of 37 other countries and regions, by 2017, the effect of China's labor allocation structure will continue to remain in a relatively high stage; between 2017 and 2023, structural effect will significantly diminish and deceleration pressure will rise swiftly; after 2030, the effect of labor allocation structure will linger in a low level stage, when economy is likely to enter into a stage of low growth rate. These findings will help us better assess future economic growth tendencies.

我国肉鸡饲料价格波动特征及影响因素分析

文章旨在分析肉鸡价格波动特征及影响因素,有利于推动禽类养殖业健康稳定发展。基于2002年1月-2022年12月我国252个肉鸡饲料企业样本数据,在通过平稳性检验后,采用VAR模型和方差分解法,从肉鸡饲料价格、供给和需求方面分析引起我国肉鸡饲料价格波动的主要因素。结果显示,在供给层面,肉鸡饲料价格波动的主要影响因素为玉米存量和豆粕存量,第7期玉米存量和豆粕存量对当月肉鸡饲料价格的影响占比分别是30.78%和20.39%。在需求层面,在第7期农村居民人均可支配收入和可繁殖母鸡存栏量对肉鸡饲料价格的影响占比较高,分别为9.06%和6.87%。研究表明,肉鸡饲料价格波动受肉鸡饲料自身价格影响程度最大,随后依次为玉米存量、豆粕存量、农村居民人均可支配收入、可繁殖母鸡存栏量、鱼虾肉价格、肉鸡存栏量、牛肉价格和城镇居民人均可支配收入。

有效资本存量、供需匹配与中国经济稳定增长

在中国高质量发展不断深化的背景下,有效投资通过优化供给结构可实现供给和需求的进一步匹配,进而克服中国现阶段有效供给不足的问题。本文以不同产业资本效率为权重构建了中国有效资本存量指标体系,相比于以往研究,从理论方面对简单加总的资本存量进行了改进。同时,通过结合不同产业的投资效率以及资本占比得出中国投资结构面临的问题。研究发现:中国投资结构面临的问题是低投资效率的产业获得高份额的投资以及高投资效率的产业没有获得足够的投资份额,进而导致中国有效供给不足和内循环不通畅。因此,需要通过增加有效投资来盘活存量资本和优化供给结构,确保实现经济的稳定增长。

磨盘山落叶阔叶林乔木结构动态

按照CTFS标准和技术规范,于2005年设置5.76 hm^(2)森林动态定位监测大样地,以20 m×20 m样方为单位,利用网格法将其划分为5 m×5 m小样方,调查样方内胸径≥1 cm的木本植物种类、相对位置、胸径、树高、枝下高等,2009、2016、2021年采用同样方法复测调查。基于大样地内木本植物相关数据,研究次生落叶阔叶林乔木群落结构动态变化。结果显示:1)该样地共记录到乔木层植物16科23属33种,共241887株,大多属东亚和北亚温带分布区类型,是温带落叶阔叶林常见树种;2)历次调查树种径级组成均以小径级为主,树种个体主要集中在10 cm径级以下,幼龄树种占绝大多数;3)全林分、主要树种单位面积蓄积量随林龄增加林分蓄积量先减小后增大。主要树种年蓄积量大致分为4类:年蓄积量明显下降;年蓄积量增加幅度逐渐下降;在调查时间内年蓄积量变化不明显;年蓄积量逐年增加。各阶段蓄积量差异较大,主要是由幼苗更新量变化和群落发育阶段各树种生长特性不同导致。

2021年山东长岛毗邻海域底层渔业生物监测数据集

近岸岛屿毗邻海域作为陆架边缘海中最具代表性的区域之一,是重要的海-陆过渡区域。在自然环境变动与人类活动的双重影响下,其生态系统具有多样性和复杂性。长岛毗邻海域具有典型的海岛生态环境特征,为渤黄海渔业种类的洄游通道和关键栖息地,对该海域生态系统食物网结构和能流过程具有重要意义。2021年3月至12月,山东长岛近海渔业资源国家野外科学观测研究站在长岛毗邻海域开展10航次,每航次10站的底层渔业生物逐月调查与样品测定。通过对渔获物的生物学测定数据进行计算,获得相对重要性指数(index of relative importance,IRI)、物种更替率、单位捕捞努力量渔获量(catch per unit effort,CPUE)以及包含Margalef丰富度指数(D)、Shannon-Wiener多样性指数(H′)和Pielou均匀度指数(J′)在内的生物多样性指数,构成了本数据集。基于多人全样本交叉复核完成审查与校对过程,确保数据集的规范性与准确性。本数据集可为渤黄海底层渔业生物时空格局和海岛生态系统研究提供数据支撑。

基于Cyt b基因的江苏省湖泊鳙群体遗传多样性和遗传结构研究

为了解江苏省湖泊鳙群体遗传资源现状,科学地开展鳙增殖放流,采用线粒体Cyt b基因,分析了6个湖泊群体、223个个体的遗传多样性和遗传结构。结果表明,223条Cyt b序列共有10个变异位点,定义9个单倍型,单倍型多样性(Hd)和核苷酸多样性(Pi)分别为(0.725±0.017)和(0.00191±0.00080),整个鳙群体呈现出高Hd和低Pi的遗传多样性模式。6个群体的单倍型多样性为(0.625±0.077)~(0.771±0.032),核苷酸多样性为(0.00159±0.00027)~(0.00221±0.00011)。分子方差分析结果显示,遗传变异主要来源于群体内部(97.17%),总遗传分化系数(Fst)为0.0283。群体间Fst为-0.0258~0.0907,遗传距离为0.0016~0.0022,表明6个群体间遗传分化水平较低。中性检验结果和错配分布分析表明,鳙群体保持稳定,未经历群体扩张。指出,鳙群体遗传多样性较低,遗传结构趋于同质化,需要采取措施,提高湖泊鳙群体遗传多样性。

企业社会责任、女性高管与股价同步性——基于信息不对称视角的实证研究

基于中国沪深A股上市公司2003—2022年样本数据,实证考察企业社会责任对股价同步性的影响,并检验企业高管性别特征对上述关系的调节作用。研究发现,企业社会责任与股价同步性间存在显著负向影响关系,女性高管的性别特征能够在一定程度上增强企业社会责任对股价同步性的抑制作用。研究从信息传递对股票价格影响的角度出发,对当前企业社会责任、高管性别特征及其对股价波动影响的研究文献进行拓展,有利于完善资本市场会计信息披露和监管,缓解企业内外部信息不对称,对于投资者了解企业特有信息,降低股价同涨同跌的大幅波动,稳定金融市场秩序具有一定的信号传递作用。

资本市场开放与企业ESG表现——基于绿色创新的调节效应

随着首批两项国际财务报告可持续披露准则的正式发布,如何提升企业ESG表现以推进可持续发展成为实务界和理论界的热点议题。利用沪深港通交易机制提供的准自然实验环境,构建多时点双重差分模型以实证检验资本市场开放对企业ESG表现的影响机制。研究发现,沪深港通交易机制的实施通过提高标的企业市场关注度和优化投资者结构改善企业ESG表现,该结论在经过一系列稳健性检验后仍成立,且该政策效应在非国有企业和具有较高信息披露质量企业中更明显。此外,企业开展绿色创新活动可强化资本市场开放对企业ESG表现的提升作用。研究丰富了资本市场开放促进企业可持续发展的经验证据,也为当前企业ESG表现影响因素的探究提供了新的视角。

养殖密度对投喂模式下网箱养殖刺参生长、消化酶及肠道菌群的影响

为评估养殖密度对投喂模式下浅海网箱养殖刺参(Apostichopus japonicus)的影响,本研究在辽宁省大连刺参网箱养殖核心区开展了为期42 d的养殖实验,分析了不同养殖密度条件下(10、20、30 kg/箱,标记为F10、F20和F30)刺参的生长、消化酶及肠道菌群结构的差异。结果显示,F10、F20和F30组增重率(WGR)分别为(51.63±4.27)%、(33.21±8.58)%和(23.08±0.24)%。随着养殖密度的增大,刺参的WGR和特定生长率(SGR)显著降低,净产量增加,饵料系数(FCR)升高。F10组的FCR(0.76±0.06)显著低于F30组(1.72±0.03)(P<0.05)。随着养殖密度的增大,刺参肠道胰蛋白酶、淀粉酶和脂肪酶等消化酶活性均呈下降的趋势,F30组的消化酶活性显著低于F10组和F20组(P<0.05)。F10组与F20组的菌群相似性较高,其ACE、Chao1、Shannon和Simpson等多样性指数均显著高于F30组(P<0.05)。优势菌属随着养殖密度的不同存在差异,F10组、F20组和F30组分别显著富集于链球菌属(Streptococcus)、瘤胃球菌UCG_005属和Alkanindiges等菌属。Pearson相关性分析显示,链球菌属、Muribaculaceae和UCG_005属与消化酶活性呈显著正相关。效益估算显示,F20组与F30组养殖效益相差不大,较F10组有大幅提高。研究表明,养殖密度在20~30kg/箱时,可提高养殖净产量,但养殖密度达30 kg/箱时,刺参生长、肠道消化酶活性和微生物多样性显著降低,现有小网箱投喂模式下养殖密度宜提高至20kg/箱。研究结果可为刺参浅海网箱的科学养殖和提质增效提供参考。

结构化最大间隔双支持向量机在股票预测中的应用

股票价格受政策、宏观经济以及公司经营状况等多方因素的影响,且各因素之间存在较高的相关性,因此股票数据存在的高噪声、非平稳等特性使得股票预测充满困难。为了减少数据中存在的噪声对股价预测准确性的影响,基于马氏距离的类间隔可分性,提出了结构化最大间隔双支持向量机,其分别针对正类样本和负类样本,寻找两个非平行的超平面,使每一类样本离本类样本的欧式距离尽可能小,同时离异类超平面的马氏距离尽可能大。8组基准数据集的实验结果表明,该方法在含噪声数据的分类问题上具有稳定的准确率,从而提升了模型的预测性能和抗噪能力。同时将其应用到股票涨跌趋势预测中,通过对上证综指、上证A指、上证380指数以及中国平安等14只股票实证分析的结果表明,相较于其他对比模型,结构化最大间隔双支持向量机表现出了较好的预测结果,具有一定的实用价值。

房地产企业资本结构对股价波动的传递效应分析——基于结构化GARCH模型

中国房地产企业资本结构长期处于高负债、高杠杆状态。在二十余年的房地产高速发展过程中,高杠杆风险长期被忽视,甚至被认为是房地产企业发展的固有模式。在结构化GARCH模型中引入资本结构因素,检验房地产企业资本结构对股价波动的传递与溢出效应。研究发现:中国房地产市场具有结构化特征,杠杆乘数与股价波动具有同步性;过高的负债水平并不会提升房地产企业的规模效应,反而会抑制股票收益率的增长。