Dynamically integrated regression model for online auction data

We propose a dynamically integrated regression model to predict the price of online auctions,including the final price.Different from existing models,the proposed method uses not only the historical price but also the information from bidding time.Consequently,the prediction accuracy is improved compared with the existing methods.An estimation method based on B-spline approximation is proposed for the estimation and the inference of parameters and nonparametric functions in this model.The minimax rate of convergence for the prediction risk and large-sample results including the consistency and the asymptotic normality are established.Simulation studies verify the finite sample performance and the appealing prediction accuracy and robustness.Finally,when we apply our method to a 7-day auction of iPhone 6s during December 2015 and March 2016,the proposed method predicts the ending price with a much smaller error than the existing models.

Tidal Level Response to Sea-Level Rise in the Yangtze Estuary

The rise of tidal level in tidal reaches induced by sea-level rise has a large impact on flood control and water supply for the regions around the estuary. This paper focuses on the variations of tidal level response along the tidal reaches in the Yangtze Estuary, as well as the impacts of upstream discharge on tidal level response, due to the sea-level rise of the East China Sea. Based on the Topex/Poseidon altimeter data obtained during the period 1993-2005, a stochastic dynamic analysis was performed and a forecast model was run to predict the sea-level rise of the East China Sea. Two- dimensional hydrodynamic numerical models downscaling from the East China Sea to estuarine areas were implemented to analyze the rise of tidal level along the tidal reaches. In response to the sea-level rise, the tidal wave characteristics change slightly in nearshore areas outside the estuaries, involving the tidal range and the duration of flood and ebb tide. The results show that the rise of tidal level in the tidal reaches due to the sea-level rise has upstream decreasing trends. The step between the stations of Zhangjiagang and Shiyiwei divides the tidal reaches into two parts, in which the tidal level response declines slightly. The rise of tidal level is 1-2.5 mm/a in the upper part, and 4-6 mm/a in the lower part. The stations of Jiangyin and Yanglin, as an example of the upper part and the lower part respectively, are extracted to analyze the impacts of upstream discharge on tidal level response to the sea-level rise. The relation between the rise of tidal level and the upstream discharge can be fitted well with a quadratic fimction in the upper part. However, the relation is too complicated to be fitted in the lower part because of the tide dominance. For comparison purposes, hourly tidal level observations at the stations of Xuliujing and Yanglin during the period 1993-2009 are adopted. In order to uniform the influence of upstream discharge on tidal level for a certain day each year, the hourly tidal level observations are corrected by the correlation between the increment of tidal level and the increment of daily mean upstream discharge. The rise of annual mean tidal level is evaluated. The resulting rise of tidal level at the stations of Xuliujing and Yanglin is 3.0 mm/a and 6.6 mm/a respectively, close to the rise of 5 mm/a according to the proposed relation between the rise of tidal level and the upstream discharge.

Dynamic downscaling of near-surface air temperature at the basin scale using WRF-a case study in the Heihe River Basin, China

The spatial resolution of general circulation models （GCMs） is too coarse to represent regional climate variations at the regional, basin, and local scales required for many environmental modeling and impact assessments. Weather research and forecasting model （WRF） is a nextgeneration, fully compressible, Euler non-hydrostatic mesoscale forecast model with a runtime hydrostatic option. This model is useful for downscaling weather and climate at the scales from one kilometer to thousands of kilometers, and is useful for deriving meteorological parameters required for hydrological simulation too. The objective of this paper is to validate WRF simulating 5 km/ 1 h air temperatures by daily observed data of China Meteorological Administration （CMA） stations, and by hourly in-situ data of the Watershed Allied Telemetry Experimental Research Project. The daily validation shows that the WRF simulation has good agreement with the observed data; the R2 between the WRF simulation and each station is more than 0.93; the absolute of meanbias error （MBE） for each station is less than 2℃; and the MBEs of Ejina, Mazongshan and Alxa stations are near zero, with R2 is more than 0.98, which can be taken as an unbiased estimation. The hourly validation shows that the WRF simulation can capture the basic trend of observed data, the MBE of each site is approximately 2℃, the R2 of each site is more than 0.80, with the highest at 0.95, and the computed and observed surface air temperature series show a significantly similar trend.

Numerical study of the effects of Planetary Boundary Layer structure on the pollutant dispersion within built-up areas

The effects of different Planetary Boundary Layer（PBL） structures on pollutant dispersion processes within two idealized street canyon configurations and a realistic urban area were numerically examined by a Computational Fluid Dynamics（CFD） model. The boundary conditions of different PBL structures/conditions were provided by simulations of the Weather Researching and Forecasting model. The simulated results of the idealized 2D and 3D street canyon experiments showed that the increment of PBL instability favored the downward transport of momentum from the upper flow above the roof to the pedestrian level within the street canyon. As a result, the flow and turbulent fields within the street canyon under the more unstable PBL condition are stronger. Therefore, more pollutants within the street canyon would be removed by the stronger advection and turbulent diffusion processes under the unstable PBL condition. On the contrary, more pollutants would be concentrated in the street canyon under the stable PBL condition. In addition, the simulations of the realistic building cluster experiments showed that the density of buildings was a crucial factor determining the dynamic effects of the PBL structure on the flow patterns. The momentum field within a denser building configuration was mostly transported from the upper flow, and was more sensitive to the PBL structures than that of the sparser building configuration. Finally, it was recommended to use the Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino（MYNN） PBL scheme, which can explicitly output the needed turbulent variables, to provide the boundary conditions to the CFD simulation.