A newly unraveled 13.6-year oscillation from GPS displacements and its potential implications for the dynamic reference frame

Numerous practical geodetic and geophysical applications necessitate precise measurements of GNSS displacements at the millimeter or sub-millimeter level. To attain such precision, it is imperative to identify and analyze the unidentified decadal signals inherent in the GPS displacements. In this research, we employ the optimal sequence estimation method to effectively detect an about 13.6-year oscillational signal with an excited amplitude of 3.6±1.2 mm in the U-components of the GPS displacements. It is noteworthy that this signal demonstrates a consistent spatial pattern characterized by the spherical harmonic Y_(2,-2). We conduct a comparative analysis with the 13.6-year oscillation observed in length-of-day variations(and geomagnetic records), finding that they are in reverse phase. After eliminating the Earth's external excitation sources through the utilization of two distinct in-situ hydrological records, we suggest that the 13.6-year GPS signal may come from the internal motions within the Earth. However, the specific excitation source and the detailed physical mechanism remain uncertain. Additionally, we develop a mathematical displacement model to explain the 13.6-year signal. Our findings indicate that this signal can result in displacements of up to 1.37 mm and velocity effects of 0.63 mm/yr(for U-component) at maximum. These results underscore the necessity of incorporating this 13.6-year signal into the construction and maintenance of a dynamic reference frame at the millimeter level.

Application of time series modeling to a national reference frame realization

This paper presents an option for modern dynamic terrestrial reference system realization in Uzbekistan for user needs. An additive model is explored to predict patterns of time series and investigate means of constructing forecast time series models in the future. The main components(trend, periodical, and irregular) of the KIUB(DORIS) and KIT3, TASH, MADK, and MTAL(GNSS) international stations coordinate time series were investigated. It was shown that seasonal nonlinear trends occurred both in the height(U) component of all stations and the east(E) component of high mountainous stations such as MTAL and MADK. The seasonal periodical portion of the time series determined from the additive model has a complicated pattern for all sites and can be explained as both hydrological signals in the region and improvement of observational quality. Amplitudes of the best-fitting sinusoids in the North component ranged between 1.73 and 8.76 mm; the East component ranged between 0.82 and 11.92 mm; and the Up component ranged between 3.11 and 40.81 mm. Regression analysis of the irregular portion of the height component of the two techniques at the Kitab station using tropospheric parameters(pressure and temperature) was confirmed as only 57% of the stochastic portion of the time series.