Integrated water risk early warning framework of the semi-arid transitional zone based on the water environmental carrying capacity (WECC)

Water risk early warning systems based on the water environmental carrying capacity(WECC)are powerful and effective tools to guarantee the sustainability of rivers.Existing work on the early warning of WECC has mainly concerned the comprehensive evaluation of the status quo and lacked a quantitative prejudgement and warning of future overload.In addition,existing quantitative methods for short-term early warning have rarely focused on the integrated change trends of the early warning indicators.Given the periodicity of the socioeconomic system,however,the water environmental system also follows a trend of cyclical fluctuations.Thus,it is meaningful to monitor and use this periodicity for the early warning of the WECC.In this study,we first adopted and improved the prosperity index method to develop an integrated water risk early warning framework.We also constructed a forecast model to qualitatively and quantitatively prejudge and warn about the development trends of the water environmental system.We selected the North Canal Basin(an essential connection among the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region)in China as a case study and predicted the WECC in 25 water environmental management units of the basin in 2018–2023.We found that the analysis of the prosperity index was helpful in predicting the WECC,to some extent.The result demonstrated that the early warning system provided reliable prediction(root mean square error of 0.0651 and mean absolute error of 0.1418),and the calculation results of the comprehensive early warning index(CEWI)conformed to the actual situation and related research in the river basin.From 2008 to 2023,the WECC of most water environmental management units in the basin had improved but with some spatial differences:the CEWI was generally poor in areas with many human disturbances,while it was relatively good in the upstream regions with higher forest and grass covers as well as in the downstream areas with larger water volume.Finally,through a sensitivity analysis of the indicators,we proposed specific management measures for the sustainability of the water environmental system in the North Canal Basin.Overall,the integrated water risk early warning framework could provide an appropriate method for the water environmental administration department to predict the WECC of the basin in the future.This framework could also assist in implementing corresponding management measures in advance,especially for the performance evaluation and the arrangement of key short-term tasks in the River Chief System in China.

Biological Early Warning and Emergency Management Support System for Water Pollution Accident

Water pollution accidents such as chemical spill and toxicants leach have become a serious issue in the world, which brings great threats to the aquatic ecosystem and drinking water safety. To detect unknown pollutions in time and take proper emergency actions, this study developed a system which integrated an online intelligent water quality monitoring device with a high efficient water quality model. The device is based on water quality probes and biological sensors which use fish motion as indicator. The numerical model is a combination of Euler and Lagrangian approaches. Finite element method is applied to simulate the flow field in an unstructured grid, and the pollutant be- haviours are traced through particle tracking. Oracle is used to manage the basic and monitoring data, and ArcSDE as well as ArclMS technologies are applied to make the system WebGIS-based so as to improve the data receiving and dispatching efficiency. The developed system has been successfully operated in Douhe Reservoir and Taihu Lake, China, where drinking water intakes are installed. It is seen from the applications that the online intelligent water qual- ity monitoring and emergency support system can be of great support to emergency management.

Toxic Algae and Early Warning Management in Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea of China

The research status of toxic algae in Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea are reviewed from the aspects of toxicity characteristics,toxic mechanism and early warning management,and the existing toxic algae and their toxicity in Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea are analyzed in the paper. The early warning level of toxic algae in Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea of China is put forward,and the research direction of shellfish poisoning in future is summarized.

Research on Technology Early-Warning System Based on Dynamic Information Monitoring

Relying on the advanced information technologies, such as information monitoring, data mining, natural language processing etc., the dynamic technology early-warning system is constructed. The system consists of technology information automatic retrieval, technology information monitoring, technology threat evaluation, and crisis response and management subsystem, which implements uninterrupted dynamic monitoring, trace and crisis early-warning to the specific technology. Empirical study testifies that the system improves the accuracy, timeliness and reliability of technology early-warning.

Designing of Commercial Bank Loans Risk Early Warning System Based on BP Neural Networks

According to the index early warning method, a commercial bank loans risk early warning system based on BP neural networks is proposed. The warning signal is mainly involved with the financial situation signal of loaning corporation. Except the structure description of the system structure the demonstration of attemptive designing is also elaborated.

Comparison of two earthquake early warning location methods

According to earthquake catalog records of Fujian Seismic Network, the Tnow method and the fourstation continuous location method put forward by Jin Xing are inspected by using P-wave arrival information of the first four stations in each earthquake. It shows that the fourstation continuous location method can locate more seismic events than the Tnow method. By analyzing the results, it is concluded that the reason for this is that the Tnow method makes use of information from stations without being triggered, while some stations failed to be reflected in earthquake catalog because of discontinuous records or unclear records of seismic phases. For seismic events whose location results can be given, there is no obvious difference in location results of the two methods and positioning deviation of most seismic events is also not significant. For earthquakes outside the network, the positioning deviation may amplify as the epicentral distance enlarges, which may relate to the situation that the seismic stations are centered on one side of epicenter and the opening angle between seismic stations used for location and epicenter is small.

中国农业害虫综合防治研究进展:2018年-2022年

近5年来,我国在害虫变态发育与生殖调控、害虫滞育调控、害虫迁飞、害虫与共生微生物互作、害虫对杀虫剂的抗性、害虫与寄主植物的化学通讯、害虫对植物抗虫性的适应、害虫对作物种植结构调整的响应、害虫对全球气候变化的响应等农业害虫发生新规律新机制解析方面取得了系列重要进展,同时推进了抗虫作物、RNA农药、行为调控和生态调控等害虫防控新技术与新产品的研发;提出迁飞性草地贪夜蛾分区治理、多食性盲蝽区域防控、地下害虫韭蛆绿色防控和抗性麦蚜精准化学防控等害虫绿色防控新模式新体系。根据国内外农业害虫综合防治科技发展趋势和中国农业高质量发展现实需求,我国需进一步重视农业昆虫交叉学科前沿和新兴技术领域,以产业需求为导向,强化害虫防控基础理论创新,创制智能监测预警和绿色防控新技术、新产品,创新集成区域绿色防控和跨区协同治理技术体系,为保障国家粮食安全、助力乡村全面振兴提供强有力的植保科技支撑。

我国主要农作物病害灾变机制与综合防控研究进展:2018年-2022年

2018年以来,我国在主要农作物真菌、卵菌、细菌、病毒和线虫病害的病原菌致病机制解析、寄主植物抗病机理研究、主要农作物病害监测预警及绿色防控关键核心技术研发与应用方面取得了系列重要进展,同时推进了抗病品种、纳米农药、免疫调节和生态调控等病害防控新技术与新产品的研发。根据国内外农作物病害综合防治科技发展趋势和中国农业高质量发展现实需求,我国需进一步重视农作物病害交叉学科前沿和新兴技术领域,聚焦保障国家生物安全和粮食安全的主责主业,强化农作物病害防控理论创新、技术创新,创制智能监测预警和绿色防控新技术、新产品,创新集成区域绿色防控和跨区协同治理技术体系,为实现高水平农业科技自立自强、支撑农业强国建设贡献植保力量。

Review of the 2018 Palu Tsunami: Disaster Behavior and Reflections on Disaster Management

The 2018 Palu M_W7.5 earthquake and tsunami attracted geophysicists' attention for its strike slip focal mechanism and magnitude. We inspected the details of this disaster and discussed its particularity and possible causations. The submarine landslide and special terrain conditions could have contributed to the unusual size of the tsunami. The early warning system and the post disaster response is also reviewed. Efficient social warnings and broadcast systems along with good maintenance is essential. We also found that enhancing publics scientific literacy is the most important way to reduce disaster damage and casualties. Moreover, social conditions and rebuilding difficulties post tsunami are related as reference resources for future disaster management strategies.

Chinese public participation monitoring and warning system for geological hazards

In China,many geological hazards occurred in remote mountainous regions,and it was time-consuming to disseminate disaster information for the responsible parties to make timely judgements.Besides,only relying on professionals to monitor and manage disasters was demanding and costly.The Chinese government created a system to engage residents in the process of disaster risk management,namely’Public Participation Monitoring and Warning’(PPMW),to disseminate timely disaster information and bring down management costs.The objective of this system was to reduce casualties with minimum cost by organizing residents to evacuate from disasters in advance.This paper introduced the PPMW system,including its structure,operation mechanism by reviewing government documents and research articles,and its implementation by a case study of a landslide at Boli village(E 101°01’,N 27°29’),Yanyuan County,Sichuan Province,China on July 19th 2018.Further,this paper analyzed the strengths and limitations of the system and discussed its future development.It had the potential to become an affordable disaster risk management tool for other countries facing similar situations to China.

Management and instant query of distributed oil and gas production dynamic data

The multidimensional analysis engine data management platform is constructed using big data distributed storage and parallel computing,data warehouse modeling technology,realizing the optimal management and instant query of distributed oil and gas production dynamic big data.The centralized management and quick response of the production data of more than 36×10^4 oil,gas and water wells is realized.Multidimensional analysis subject model of oil,gas and water well production is built to pretreat the relevant data.At the level of China National Petroleum Corporation(CNPC),the rapid analysis and applications such as oil and gas production tracking,early production warning of key oilfields,analysis of low production wells and long shutdown wells,classification of reservoir development laws have been realized,and the processing time has been shortened from 1 d to 5 s.The basic unit of oil and gas production analysis is refined from oilfield to single well,making the production management more detailed.The process can be traced step by step according to CNPC,oil field company,field,block and single well,and the oil and gas production performance of each unit can be mastered in real time.

Development of Crisis Management Models Combined with Cloud Computing

Three monitor models of enterprise crisis were introduced,i.e.,the monitoring model of enterprise crisis based on intelligent Meta search,the enterprise crisis management model based on artificial neural network and the combined early-warning model.Combined with the advantages of cloud computing,the prominent crisis management models are improved and more efficient,comprehensive and accurate in enterprise crisis management.Through the empirical study of the models,cloud computing makes the early warning structures of enterprise crisis tend to be more simple and efficient,cloud computing can effectively enhance the recognition ability and learning ability of the crisis management,and cloud computing can keep data information updating and realize the dynamic management of enterprise joint early-warning.At the same time,according to the comparative analysis and the experimental result,the crisis management models based on cloud computing also need some improvements.

长江中下游崩岸险情智能感知预警与防治关键技术研究构想及成果展望

崩岸是长江中下游河道自然演变的常见形式,严重威胁防洪安全、航道畅通及沿江经济基础设施正常运行甚至是人民生命财产安全。三峡工程等水利水电工程建成运行引起长江中下游水沙情势显著改变,近年来,中下游河道持续冲刷、局部河势调整、崩岸频发,造成多方面不利影响。尽管以往已开展了相关研究并进行了治理,但由于影响因素众多,崩岸机理复杂,隐蔽性、突发性和随机性强,预警及治理难度依然很大。本文以“崩岸机理揭示—大范围筛查—介入式监测—多尺度预警—系统化防治”为总体思路开展研究,围绕流-固耦合作用下的崩岸机理与险情智能筛查、河道岸坡土体全要素实时感知及崩岸模拟预警技术、耦合河势控制措施的崩岸系统防治技术等关键科学技术问题,重点研究持续冲刷下河势变化与崩岸动态响应关系,研发多源信息融合的崩岸险情智能筛查技术、河道岸坡全要素一体化智能感知技术、多尺度河道崩岸预测与预警技术,以及耦合河势控制措施的崩岸系统防治技术,旨在揭示持续冲刷条件下长江中下游崩岸发生的驱动因素及内在机理,研发崩岸险情智能感知预警及防治关键技术,实现崩岸险情智能筛查、多要素监测、动态预警与系统防治。研究有望显著提高长江中下游河道崩岸发生的预见性和治理技术水平,促进崩岸从灾后抢护向灾前预防转变,为河道系统治理和水安全保障能力提升提供科技支撑。

金融危机预警情报的失灵与治理

[研究目的]金融安全是国家安全的重要构成部分。金融危机预警作为金融监管的前哨和第一道防线,可将危机扼杀在摇篮中或将灾害损失降到最少。因此,探究金融危机预警情报服务框架,不仅为完善金融风险治理提供新的思路,还有助于提升情报服务金融安全的能力和水平。[研究方法]基于情报学视角,采用访谈和文献调查方法,对金融危机预警情报失灵的根源进行探析,构建了金融危机预警情报框架,并从预警原则、情报感知、分析策略和预警机制等方面进行阐释。[研究结论]研究表明,实施分级分解的分析战略、转变预警方式和强化危机预警机制等手段,有助于在不确定风险中提高危机管理响应效能,减少危机预警情报失灵的发生。

血栓预防操联合预警分级管理在老年髋部骨折患者中的应用

目的探讨血栓预防操联合预警分级管理在老年髋部骨折患者中的应用效果,以期为临床治疗提供参考。方法本研究选取2020年1月—2023年6月成都市龙泉驿区第一人民医院收治的200例老年髋部骨折患者为研究对象。采用随机数字表法将患者分为观察组与对照组,每组100例。对照组患者采用常规健康护理干预,观察组患者在对照组基础上采用血栓预防操联合预警分层管理干预。分别于干预前、出院时比较2组患者深静脉血栓(DVT)健康信念水平、血小板计数(PLT)、血小板体积(MPV)、血小板分布宽度(PDW)、凝血活酶时间(APTT)、凝血酶原时间(PT)、纤维蛋白原(Fbg)水平;比较2组患者住院期间DVT发生率;比较2组患者出院时护理满意度。结果出院时,2组患者DVT健康信念中疾病易得感、疾病严重性、健康行为益处、自我效能评分均高于干预前,且观察组高于对照组,差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。2组患者DVT发生率比较,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。出院时,2组患者MPV和PDW均低于干预前,且观察组低于对照组,差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。2组患者PLT比较,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。出院时,2组患者APTT、PT均长于干预前,且观察组均长于对照组,差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05);出院时,2组患者Fbg水平均低于干预前,且观察组低于对照组,差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。观察组患者护理满意度为96.00%,高于对照组的87.00%,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论实施血栓预防操联合预警分级管理,可增强老年髋部骨折患者健康信念,避免DVT风险的增加,改善血小板功能,纠正机体血凝状态,提高患者在护理过程中的满意度,值得临床推广应用。

基于风险预警的消费品安全政府监管:理论与实践

为保障消费者人身财产安全,政府部门将风险预警作为监管工具之一,在国内外不同产品监管领域中均有应用,而我国消费品安全风险预警机制尚未建立。本文基于预警概念界定和相关理论基础的阐述,比较分析了国内外产品安全风险预警监管体系的运行实践经验。研究发现不同国家不同监管领域中风险预警的定义、类型、特点并不统一,各国风险预警制度与其自身消费品安全监管体系相适应;总结产品安全风险预警的类型,进而分析适合我国消费品安全监管的风险预警制度设计,为开展消费品安全风险预警实践提出了对策与建议。

项目综合管理策略在重症监护病房耐甲氧西林金黄色葡萄球菌感染防控中的应用

目的 探讨项目综合管理策略在重症监护病房(ICU)落实耐甲氧西林金黄色葡萄球菌(methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus,MRSA)感染防控措施中的应用效果,为降低MRSA医院感染发生率提供循证依据。方法 选取2020-01-2021-12月某三甲医院5个ICU中住院患者送检标本并经微生物培养分离出MRSA的患者为研究对象。2020年为基线调查,2021年实施项目综合管理策略。比较干预前后各项防控措施落实执行情况、手卫生依从性、患者MRSA检出情况和MRSA检出科室分布情况。结果 实施项目综合干预管理策略后,MRSA防控措施的落实情况优于干预前,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。各类人员手卫生依从性均有提高,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。干预后患者MRSA检出率由35.71%降至27.73%。MRSA检出科室分布情况显示除呼吸内科ICU持平,其他ICU检出率均下降。结论 项目综合管理策略提高了MRSA感染防控措施的执行力和有效性,降低了MRSA检出率,减少了患者感染MRSA的风险,可保障医疗安全。

卒中后吞咽障碍临床决策支持系统的构建及应用评价

目的 构建卒中后吞咽障碍临床决策支持系统,并评价其在卒中后吞咽障碍识别与防控管理中的应用效果。方法 将急性缺血性脑卒中患者按入院时间分组,2023年7-9月(系统应用前)收治的患者33例为对照组,2023年10-12月(系统应用后)收治的患者33例为观察组。对照组在常规护理基础上进行改良洼田饮水试验,根据筛查结果进行饮食指导、经口进食安全教育、动态评估吞咽功能。观察组采用卒中后吞咽障碍临床决策支持系统(基于计算机语言和数据库模型构建,包括预警筛查、智能评估、风险警示、决策分析、评价提醒五大模块)筛查和评估患者吞咽障碍情况,并根据评估结果实施护理干预。评价系统应用前后患者吞咽功能筛查率、筛查结果准确率,以及护士吞咽障碍管理知识和行为得分、临床护士应用体验感。结果 观察组吞咽功能筛查率显著高于对照组(P<0.05);系统应用后临床护士吞咽障碍管理知识和行为得分显著高于应用前(均P<0.05);临床护士对系统使用体验感总分为(99.40±4.81)分。结论 构建的卒中后吞咽障碍临床决策支持系统可辅助护士在线决策,规范护士吞咽障碍管理行为,提高卒中患者吞咽功能筛查率,有效实施吞咽障碍防控措施,改善卒中后吞咽障碍管理质量,保证患者安全。

盾构法隧洞工程的施工进度预警方法

隧洞盾构施工投资金额大,施工难度高,项目管理任务复杂,工期延误会带来巨大经济损失,因此,科学有效的施工进度预警能极大地为隧洞工程节省时间和造价成本.首先根据工程实际情况设立施工进度预警指标和警度标准,并建立了施工进度延误预警模型,通过计算当前的工程施工进度延误程度,判断出未来的影响趋势,并根据延误程度的轻重结合警度预报给出不同的预警信号.进一步采用BIM软件构建该隧洞的三维模型,并对隧洞进行4D施工进度模拟,以不同颜色展示警度差异,可实现施工进度预警的可视化管理.将此模型应用到西霞院灌区工程穿沁隧洞典型盾构施工段中,计算出该隧洞已完工部分的施工进度延误程度以及影响趋势,并通过BIM模型直观显示了预警结果.

早期持续被动运动结合预警分级管理模式对髋部骨折术后患者并发症发生情况及髋关节功能的影响

目的 研究早期持续被动运动结合预警分级管理模式对髋部骨折术后患者并发症发生情况及髋关节功能的影响。方法 选取2019年2月至2021年9月收治的84例髋部骨折术后患者为研究对象,以随机数字表法将其分为对照组与观察组,各42例。对照组采用常规护理干预,观察组在对照组基础上采取早期持续被动运动结合预警分级管理模式。比较两组的干预效果。结果 观察组的术后并发症总发生率低于对照组,差异具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。干预后,观察组的双腿周径小于对照组,下肢动脉血流速度大于对照组,D-二聚体水平低于对照组,差异具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。干预后,观察组的Harris髋关节功能评分高于对照组,关节活动度大于对照组,差异具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论 早期持续被动运动结合预警分级管理模式不仅能够改善髋部骨折术后患者的双下肢相关指标,促进髋关节功能恢复,还能减少术后并发症,值得推广。