葡萄休眠相关基因DAMs的克隆分析及对单氰胺的响应

DAM基因是真核生物转录因子之一,在木本果树的芽休眠中起着重要的调控作用,且在不同物种间数量不同。以‘水晶’葡萄为试材,于冬芽休眠期间采集枝条后均匀涂抹2.5%单氰胺,在处理后的不同时间采集冬芽,用于克隆VvDAMs基因序列,对其进行生物信息学和荧光定量分析,并测定冬芽激素含量。结果表明,克隆获得的VvDAM1、VvDAM2和VvDAM3基因的开放阅读框的长度分别为690、696、702 bp,分别编码229、231、233个氨基酸和1个终止密码子,相对分子量分别为25.96、26.76、25.99 kD,理论等电点分别为7.71、10.49、9.10;三者的二级结构形式均呈现α-螺旋>无规则卷曲>延伸链的规律;VvDAM1、VvDAM2、VvDAM3氨基酸序列上有一定的同一性,VvDAM1与欧洲李PsDAM1、VvDAM2与樱桃李PcDAM2、VvDAM3与李PsDAM3之间的同源性均达到98%以上;此外,冬芽休眠解除期间,VvDAM 1、VvDAM 2、VvDAM 3基因的表达量逐渐下降,IAA、GA3+4、ZR的含量和GA3+4/ABA逐渐上升,ABA含量和IAA/ZR逐渐下降,单氰胺处理后使其变化提前且幅度增大,从而使芽提前萌发,为葡萄冬芽破眠、早熟栽培等提供理论依据和实践意义。

Numerical investigation of hydro-morphodynamic characteristics of a cascading failure of landslide dams

A cascading failure of landslide dams caused by strong earthquakes or torrential rains in mountainous river valleys can pose great threats to people’s lives,properties,and infrastructures.In this study,based on the three-dimensional Reynoldsaveraged Navier-Stokes equations(RANS),the renormalization group(RNG)k-εturbulence model,suspended and bed load transport equations,and the instability discriminant formula of dam breach side slope,and the explicit finite volume method(FVM),a detailed numerical simulation model for calculating the hydro-morphodynamic characteristics of cascading dam breach process has been developed.The developed numerical model can simulate the breach hydrograph and the dam breach morphology evolution during the cascading failure process of landslide dams.A model test of the breaches of two cascading landslide dams has been used as the validation case.The comparison of the calculated and measured results indicates that the breach hydrograph and the breach morphology evolution process of the upstream and downstream dams are generally consistent with each other,and the relative errors of the key breaching parameters,i.e.,the peak breach flow and the time to peak of each dam,are less than±5%.Further,the comparison of the breach hydrographs of the upstream and downstream dams shows that there is an amplification effect of the breach flood on the cascading landslide dam failures.Three key parameters,i.e.,the distance between the upstream and the downstream dams,the river channel slope,and the downstream dam height,have been used to study the flood amplification effect.The parameter sensitivity analyses show that the peak breach flow at the downstream dam decreases with increasing distance between the upstream and the downstream dams,and the downstream dam height.Further,the peak breach flow at the downstream dam first increases and then decreases with steepening of the river channel slope.When the flood caused by the upstream dam failure flows to the downstream dam,it can produce a surge wave that overtops and erodes the dam crest,resulting in a lowering of the dam crest elevation.This has an impact on the failure occurrence time and the peak breach flow of the downstream dam.The influence of the surge wave on the downstream dam failure process is related to the volume of water that overtops the dam crest and the erosion characteristics of dam material.Moreover,the cascading failure case of the Xiaogangjian and Lower Xiaogangjian landslide dams has also been used as the representative case for validating the model.In comparisons of the calculated and measured breach hydrographs and final breach morphologies,the relative errors of the key dam breaching parameters are all within±10%,which verify the rationality of the model is applicable to real-world cases.Overall,the numerical model developed in this study can provide important technical support for the risk assessment and emergency treatment of failures of cascading landslide dams.

Impacts of artificial dams on terrestrial water storage changes and the Earth's elastic load response during 1950-2016: A case study of medium and large reservoirs in Chinese mainland

The construction of dams for intercepting and storing water has altered surface water distributions, landsea water exchanges, and the load response of the solid Earth. The lack of accurate estimation of reservoir properties through the land surface and hydrological models can lead to water storage simulation and extraction errors. This impact is particularly evident in many artificial reservoirs in China. The study aims to comprehensively assess the spatiotemporal distribution and trends of water storage in medium and large reservoirs(MLRs) in Chinese mainland during 1950-2016, and to investigate the gravity,displacement, and strain effects induced by the reservoir mass concentration using the load elasticity theory. In addition, the impoundment contributions of MLRs to the relative sea level changes were assessed using a sea-level equation. The results show impoundment increases in the MLRs during1950-2016, particularly in the Yangtze River(Changjiang) and southern basins, causing significant elastic load effects in the surrounding areas of the reservoirs and increasing the relative sea level in China's offshore. However, long-term groundwater estimation trends are overestimated and underestimated in the Yangtze River and southwestern basins, respectively, due to the neglect of the MLRs impacts or the uncertainty of the hydrological model's output(e.g., soil moisture, etc.). The construction of MLRs may reduce the water mass input from land to the ocean, thus slowing global sea level rise. The results of the impact of human activities on the regional water cycle provide important references and data support for improving the integration of hydrological models, evaluating Earth's viscoelastic responses under longterm reservoir storage, enhancing in-situ and satellite geodetic measurements, and identifying the main factors driving sea level changes.

一种S波段雷达通信电子战多功能宽带DAM的设计

本文创新性地提出了一种S波段多功能宽带DAM,首先介绍了该型DAM的顶层架构设计,接着介绍了各个功能组成模块的设计过程,最后给出了该型DAM的指标实现情况。该型DAM可以分时实现雷达、通信及电子战功能,最大瞬时带宽可达200MHz,支持任意波形产生,在多功能综合射频系统中具有良好的应用前景。

Deformation prediction model of concrete face rockfill dams based on an improved random forest model

The unique structure and complex deformation characteristics of concrete face rockfill dams(CFRDs)create safety monitoring challenges.This study developed an improved random forest(IRF)model for dam health monitoring modeling by replacing the decision tree in the random forest(RF)model with a novel M5'model tree algorithm.The factors affecting dam deformation were preliminarily selected using the statistical model,and the grey relational degree theory was utilized to reduce the dimensions of model input variables.Finally,a deformation prediction model of CFRDs was established using the IRF model.The ten-fold cross-validation method was used to quantitatively analyze the parameters affecting the IRF algorithm.The performance of the established model was verified using data from three specific measurement points on the Jishixia dam and compared with other dam deformation prediction models.At point ES-10,the performance evaluation indices of the IRF model were superior to those of the M5'model tree and RF models and the classical support vector regression(SVR)and back propagation(BP)neural network models,indicating the satisfactory performance of the IRF model.The IRF model also outperformed the SVR and BP models in settlement prediction at points ES2-8 and ES4-10,demonstrating its strong anti-interference and generalization capabilities.This study has developed a novel method for forecasting and analyzing dam settlements with practical significance.Moreover,the established IRF model can also provide guidance for modeling health monitoring of other structures.

Characteristics of gully bed scour and siltation between check dams

Check dams are the most commonly used engineering measure for debris flow control worldwide.The scour and siltation characteristics between dams are important factors affecting dam design.In this study,classical dimensional analysis of the variables that influence the development of gully bed scour and siltation was carried out.Flume experiments were conducted to examine the influence characteristics of opening width,flume slope,debris flow density,and opening rate on the characteristics of gully bed scour and siltation.The influential characteristics of variables on the dimensionless scour depth,scour length,siltation length,scour volume and siltation volume were obtained.The experiments showed that,with an increase in the relative opening from 1.5 to 2.5,scour depth increased by 7.4%,scour length decreased by 11.2%,siltation length increased by 22.0%,scour volume decreased by 4.7%and siltation volume increased by 22.0%.With an increase in flume gradient from 0.105 to 0.213,scour depth,siltation length and siltation volume increased by 40.0%,65.9%and 65.9%,respectively,and scour length decreased by 20.1%.With an increase in sediment concentration from 0.303 to 0.545,siltation length and siltation volume increased by 15.4%and 15.4%,respectively,and scour depth,scour length and scour volume decreased by 9.6%,9.1%and 17.8%,respectively.As opening rate increased from 0.08 to 0.32,siltation length and siltation volume increased by 33.3%and 33.3%,respectively,and scour depth,scour length and scour volume decreased by 5.4%,13.7%and 18.4%,respectively.The results showed that the flume gradient was the most influential factor on scour depth,scour length,siltation length and siltation volume,and the sediment concentration was the most influential factor on scour volume.Then,according to the experimental data,some empirical formulas predicting scour depth,scour length,siltation length,scour volume and siltation volume were obtained.The error between the computed values according to the formulas in this paper and the observed values was within±10%.These research results may provide a technological basis for window dam design in debris flow disaster prevention and mitigation.

Flood risk assessment of check dams in the Wangmaogou watershed on the Loess Plateau of China

Check dams have been widely used in China’s Loess Plateau region due to their effectiveness in erosion and flood control.However,the safety and stability of the check dam decrease with the operation process,which increases the probability of dam failure during flood events and threatens local residents’ life and property.Thus,this study simulated flood process of the check dam failure in the Wangmaogou watershed in Yulin City,Shaanxi Province,China,calculated different types of inundation losses based on the flood inundation area within the watershed,and determined the number of key flood protection check dams by classifying the flood risk levels of the check dams.The results showed that 5 dams in the watershed were subject to overtopping during different rainfall return periods,which was related to their flood discharge capacity.Dam failure flood process showed a rapid growth trend followed by slow decrease,and the time of flood peak advanced with increase in the return period.After harmonization of evaluation scales,the magnitude of flood inundation losses can be ranked as:economic losses(212.409 million yuan) > life losses(10.368 million yuan) > ecological losses(6.433 million yuan).The risk value for both individual dams and the whole dam system decreases as the return period increases.The number of key flood protection check dams in the Wangmaogou watershed was 2,3,3,3,4,and 5 for floods with return periods of 10,20,30,50,100,and 200 years,respectively.The results provided a theoretical basis for the safe operation and risk evaluation of check dams in the Loess Plateau Hills watershed.

Insights into the long-term stability of landslide dams on the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, China——A case study of the Diexi area

Landslide dams,especially long-term stable landslide dams,have been recognized as important contributors to regional geomorphological evolution.Here,the Diexi area,a long-term stable dam-prone area located in upstream of the Minjiang River on the eastern Tibetan Plateau,was adopted to reveal reasons that landslide dams are concentrated in this area and maintain long-term stability via detailed field investigations,landslide dam sampling,unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)images,and digital surface models(DSM).The results show the controlling factors that the slopes are prone to sliding and rock mass structure deterioration including lithological combination mode,slope structure,topographic conditions,a series of NNE-trending radial fissures and hydrological conditions.Fault activities,which have caused many earthquakes,are the main inducing factor.Landslide dams are prone to occurrence in the Diexi area owing to the combined effect of the narrow channels,the large landslide dam volume and the rock fragments.The river flow,and the landslide dam volume,material,structure,and parameters control the stability of landslide dams.The landslide dam consists of various sizes of boulders and all landslide dams exhibit an obvious inverse grading sequence,and this size combination could consume most of the flow energy,and consequently protect the dam from incision.Additionally,a total of seven knickpoints were formed by landslide dams,and the longitudinal gradient upstream of every landslide dam was found to decrease by the action of knickpoint.In the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau,there are numerous landslide dams existed for hundreds or thousands of years.Studies on the long-term stable landslide dams in the Diexi area could provide experience for studying similar kinds of landslide dams in this region.

The damage to model concrete gravity dams subjected to water explosions

Over the past century,the safety of dams has gradually attracted attention from all parties.Research on the dynamic response and damage evolution of dams under extreme loads is the basis of dam safety issues.In recent decades,scholars have studied the responses of dams under earthquake loads,but there is still much room for improvement in experimental and theoretical research on small probability loads such as explosions.In this paper,a 50-m-high concrete gravity dam is used as a prototype dam,and a water explosion model test of a 2.5-m-high concrete gravity dam is designed.The water pressure and the acceleration response of the dam body in the test are analysed.The pressure characteristics and dynamic response of the dam body are assessed.Taking the dam damage test as an example,a numerical model of concrete gravity dam damage is established,and the damage evolution of the dam body is analysed.By combining experiments and numerical simulations,the damage characteristics of the dam body under the action of different charge water explosions are clarified.The integrity of the dam body is well maintained under the action of a small-quantity water explosion,and the dynamic response of the dam body is mainly caused by the shock wave.Both the shock wave and the bubble pulsation cause the dam body to accelerate,and the peak acceleration of the dam body under the action of the bubble pulsation is only one percent of the peak acceleration of the dam body under the action of the shock wave.When subjected to explosions in large quantities of water,the dam body is seriously damaged.Under the action of a shock wave,the dam body produces a secondary acceleration response,which is generated by an internal interaction after the dam body is damaged.The damage evolution process of the dam body under the action of a large-scale water explosion is analysed,and it is found that the shock wave pressure of the water explosion causes local damage to the dam body facing the explosion.After the peak value of the shock wave,the impulse continues to act on the dam body,causing cumulative damage and damage inside the dam body.

Controls on the regional distribution of landslide dams and implications for fluvial landform evolution in Bhutan and its surrounding area

The regional distribution of landslide dams can provide valuable insights into the interactions among various factors,including lithology,topography,climate,and fluvial landforms in tectonically active mountains.Himalayan rivers are frequently impacted by large-scale landslide damming,which profoundly influence fluvial geomorphology.In this study,we identified 1652 landslide dams in four major rivers of Bhutan and its surrounding area by remote sensing interpretation.Notably,approximately 71%of these landslide dams are found in regions composed of quartzite or gneiss.Fault-related tectonic activity plays a significant role in governing the distribution of these landslide dams,as approximately 83%of the mapped landslide dams are found within a 10 km radius of the nearest fault.The majority of the identified landslide dams are situated in areas with relatively modest local relief,ranging from 227 m to 327 m.These dams tend to cluster in the tributaries,and the stream power of almost 95%of them is typically below 1×10^(6) kg m^(2) s^(-3).Our data,combining the erosion rate and kernel density map of the landslide dams,reveals that regions with high erosion rates do not consistently align with the major high-density distribution of landslide dams.It is shown that the distribution of landslide dams is strongly influenced by the valley form.In comparison to U-shaped valleys,V-shaped valleys exhibit a higher density of landslide dams.Intriguingly,we also find a positive correlation between the landslide-dam distribution density and the erosion rate only in relatively arid regions with mean annual rainfall less than 500 mm.Moreover,the length of the upstream reach protected by the knickpoint associated with both lithology and landslide damming is about three times longer than that protected by the knickpoint associated only with landslide damming.

Modeling of breaching parameters for debris flow dams

The debris flow dam is a common type of barrier dams,which shows significant differences from other types of barrier dam such as landslide dam,moraine dam in their formation processes,dam body shapes,and internal compositions.The basic breaching parameters such as flood peak discharge are vital indicators of risk assessment.In this study,we elucidated the failure process of the debris flow dam through the flume experiment,and built the calculation equation of the breaching parameters by selecting critical factors.The result shows that the overtopping failure process of the debris flow dam is capable of forming significantly retrogressive scarps,and the failure process experiences three stages,the formation of the retrogressive scarp,the erosion of the retrogressive scarp,and the decline of the retrogressive scarp.Five factors used for establishing the calculation equations for peak discharge(Qp),final width(Wb)of the breach,and duration(T)of the debris flow dam failure are dam height(h),reservoir capacity(V),the fine grain content(P0.075)of the soil,the nonuniformity coefficient(Cu)of the soil,and the upper limit grain size(D90)of the soil,respectively.In the three equations,the correlation coefficients between Qp,Wb,T and the five factors were 0.86,0.70,0.63,respectively.The equations still need to be modified and verified in actual cases.

Fast clogging problem of open check dams and a new type suggestion:curved footed type open check dam

Driftwood is one of the important physical components in mountainous rivers which causes severe hazards due to the clogging of bridges,culverts,and narrow sections during floods.Therefore,the understanding of driftwood dynamics and mitigation measures are crucial for managing wood in rivers.Open check dams are the most commonly used engineering measure for preventing driftwood from reaching downstream areas.Nevertheless,these open check dams frequently lose their sediment transport function when they are blocked by sediment and driftwood,especially during major flood events.This paper proposes a new type of open check dam for preventing from clogging.Thus,flume experiments were conducted to examine the influence of different types of open check dams on the characteristics of driftwood deposition.For the model with wood length(LWD)=16.5 cm,wood diameter(D)=15 mm,and wood number(N)=172,the highest trapping efficiency was observed with 90.1%and 87.2%retention rates for the classical debris flow breaker and curved footed open check dams,respectively.Laboratory tests showed that through this proposed design,woody debris blockage in a very short time was prevented from the accumulation of woods beside the dam.In addition to this,most of the sediment passed through the check dam and most of the driftwood got trapped.It can be briefly stated that the geometrical design of the structure plays an important role and can be chosen carefully to optimize trapping efficiency.By designing this type of open check dams in mountain river basins,it may provide a better understanding of the driftwood accumulation and basis for the optimal design of these structures.Further development of the solution proposed in this work can pave the way for designing different types of open check dams for effective flood management.

Using Piezocone Tests for Analysis of Phreatic Water Conditions and Prediction of Soil Behavior in Tailing Dams

In this work the possibility of identifying two important aspects in the process of adopting soil parameters for calculating stability analysis models in tailing dams is discussed. The use of commercial computer programs for stability calculations allows obtaining numerically exact results. Its representativeness, however, will be linked to the correct definition of the phreatic regime and to the prediction of volumetric soil behavior during shearing (contractile vs. dilating materials). The theoretical principles for the selection of soils parameters for different failure models are briefly presented. Also, how the incorrect assumptions regarding material behavior can significantly affect the estimation of tailing dams’ stability. The results of CPTu tests for the diagnosis of the phreatic and mechanical condition of the materials are discussed and two examples are presented to remark on the care that should be taken to avoid incorrect soils parameters adoption.

Behavior of traditional concrete dams and three-dimensional printed concrete dams under the debris flow impact

This study investigated the resilience of traditional concrete dams compared to 3D printed concrete dams(3DPC)when subjected to debris flow.Three types of dams,namely check dams,arch dams,and curve dams,were numerically analyzed using a three-dimensional Coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian(CEL)methodology.The research focused on critical factors such as impact force and viscous energy dissipation to compare dam performance.Additionally,the study examined the printing and service phases of 3DPC models,determining potential failure modes and analyzing printing parameters.The results demonstrated that 3DPC dams outperformed traditional concrete dams,with filament deposition orientation,perpendicular to the debris flow direction,identified as a pivotal factor.Infill percentage and pattern were also found to influence the behavior of 3DPC models.Notably,curved dams exhibited superior performance based on dam geometry.These findings have significant potential for advancing the development of resilient dam structures capable of withstanding debris flow impacts.

Comparison of seismic fragility analysis methods for arch dams

This study focuses on the seismic fragility analysis of arch dams.The multiple stripe analysis(MSA),cloud analysis(CLA),and incremental dynamic analysis(IDA)methods are compared.A comprehensive dam-reservoir-foundation rock system,which considers the opening of contraction joints,the nonlinearity of dam concrete and foundation rock,the radiation damping effect of semi-unbounded foundation,and the compressibility of reservoir water,is used as a numerical example.225,80,and 15 earthquake records are selected for MSA,CLA,and IDA,respectively.The results show that MSA provides satisfactory fragility analysis,while both CLA and IDA have assumptions that may lead to deviations.Therefore,MSA is the most reliable method among the three methods and is recommended for the fragility analysis of arch dams.It is also shown that the choice of demand level affects the reliability of fragility curves and the effect of the material uncertainty on the fragility of the dam is not significant.

Breach mechanism and numerical simulation for seepage failure of earth-rock dams

In this study,a numerical model,which can capture the full process of the development of seepage passages,the collapse of dams and the failure due to overtopping,is proposed for earth-rock dams.The critical incipient velocity for the occurrence of seepage failure is derived by analyzing the forces acting on soil particles in the seepage passage.The sediment transport formula is proposed to simulate the erosion process and the evolution of breach within the dam.In this model,the grain size distribution,the compaction density and the strength of dam materials are reasonably accounted for.Furthermore,the influences of the direction of seepage paths,the slope of the dam and the velocity of water flow on the amount of erosion are also taken into consideration.The proposed model and the corresponding numerical programs are employed to simulate the development of breaches and discharge of two typical cases due to seepage failure.The development of breaches,the history of discharge and the peak flood flux predicted by the numerical models are rather comparable to the measured data,which confirms the validity of the proposed model and the feasibility of applying the model in evaluating the disaster consequences and preparing the emergency counter measurements in the case of dam collapse.

Laboratory-scale investigation of the material distribution characteristics of landslide dams in U-shaped valleys

Material distribution characteristics during sliding and depositing is particularly significative to investigate the internal structure and spatial variation of landslide dams,which are fundamentally determining the mechanical and hydraulic behavior and the susceptibility to cause dam failure.However,limited by longevity shortages and special geographic environments,the material distribution characteristics and their formation mechanisms are difficult to observe in the field.Therefore,an experimental apparatus modeling a landslide dam was developed in this paper,designing three sampling methods with two valley states.The internal deposit characteristics,void ratio variation and relative content of the particle size range(PSR)were analyzed,and the mechanics of deposit structure were also delicately ascertained.The results indicate that granular material deposited in valley shows a structure of inverse grain size accumulation in both vertical and horizontal directions,exhibiting spatial variability of particle gradation and void ratio.The characteristic PSR decreases from 22-30 mm in the two-dimensional state to 10-14 mm in the threedimensional state.Vibration excitation and vibration sieve are the intrinsic mechanisms of granular flow segregation,intrinsically inducing the formation of inverse grading deposit structures.Consequently,spatial variability in size is mainly trig gered by segregation,whereas coarse particle content and deposition boundaries merely exacerbate the difference degree.

Refined mathematical model for the breaching of concrete-face sand-gravel dams due to overtopping failure

Overtopping is one of the main reasons for the breaching of concrete-face sand-gravel dams(CFSGDs).In this study,a refined mathematical model was established based on the characteristics of the overtopping breaching of CFSGDs.The model characteristics were as follows:(1)Based on the Renormailzation Group(RNG)k-εturbulence theory and volume of fluid(VOF)method,the turbulent characteristics of the dam-break flow were simulated,and the erosion surface of the water and soil was tracked;(2)In consideration of the influence of the change in the sediment content on the dam-break flow,the dam material transport equation,which could reflect the characteristics of particle settlement and entrainment motion,was used to simulate the erosion process of the sand gravels;(3)Based on the bending moment balance method,a failure equation of the concrete face slab under dead weight and water load was established.The proposed model was verified through a case study on the failure of the Gouhou CFSGD.The results showed that the proposed model could well simulate the erosion mode of the special vortex flow of the CFSGD scouring the support body of the concrete face slab inward and reflect the mutual coupling relationship between the dam-break flow,sand gravels,and concrete face slabs.Compared with the measured values,the relative errors of the peak discharge,final breach average width,dam breaching duration,and maximum failure length of the face slab calculated using the proposed model were all less than 12%,thus verifying the rationality of the model.The proposed model was demonstrated to perform better and provide more detailed results than three selected parametric models and three simplified mathematical models.The study results can aid in establishing the risk level and devising early warning strategies for CFSGDs.

3个李品种(系)芽需冷量的研究及休眠相关DAM基因的表达分析

【目的】探究3个李(Prunus)品种(系)的芽休眠和需冷量的差异及DAM基因表达与芽休眠的关系。【方法】调查统计了3个李品种(系)需冷量与萌芽率,采用生物信息学的方法对李的DAM基因进行鉴定,并用qRT-PCR对3个品种(系)李的DAM基因在芽的不同休眠阶段表达分析。【结果】7.2℃模型、0~7.2℃模型、犹他模型下“晚熟羌脆李”的需冷量均高于‘羌脆李’和‘脆红李’,且3个需冷量统计模型下‘羌脆李’和‘脆红李’的需冷量相同。鉴定了6个DAM基因(Pd DAM1、Pd DAM2、Pd DAM3、Pd DAM4、Pd DAM5、Pd DAM6),但花芽与叶芽内休眠期与内休眠解除期(需冷区间)高表达基因都为DAM5,且在休眠解除期DAM基因的相对表达量均呈下降趋势。【结论】揭示了3个李品种(系)的花芽与叶芽需冷量的差异,筛选出与休眠解除最相关的DAM基因,结果为李芽休眠及熟期调节提供理论依据。

Dynamic probability evaluation of safety levels of earth-rockfill dams using Bayesian approach

In order to accurately predict and control the aging process of dams, new information should be collected continuously to renew the quantitative evaluation of dam safety levels. Owing to the complex structural characteristics of dams, it is quite difficult to predict the time-varying factors affecting their safety levels. It is not feasible to employ dynamic reliability indices to evaluate the actual safety levels of dams. Based on the relevant regulations for dam safety classification in China, a dynamic probability description of dam safety levels was developed. Using the Bayesian approach and effective information mining, as well as real-time information, this study achieved more rational evaluation and prediction of dam safety levels. With the Bayesian expression of discrete stochastic variables, the a priori probabilities of the dam safety levels determined by experts were combined wfth the likelihood probability of the real-time check information, and the probability information for the evaluation of dam safety levels was renewed. The probability index was then applied to dam rehabilitation decision-making. This method helps reduce the difficulty and uncertainty of the evaluation of dam safety levels and complies with the current safe decision-making regulations for dams in China. It also enhances the application of current risk analysis methods for dam safety levels.