Research on the Extraction of OLR Anomaly Prior to Ms 7.5 Sand Point,Alaska Earthquake based on IPI Method

Based on the understanding that the seismic fault system is a nonlinear complex system,Rundle(1995)introduced the nonlinear threshold system used in meteorology to analyze the ocean-atmosphere interface and the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation into the study of seismic activity changes,and then proposed the PI method(Rundle et al.,2000a,b).Wu et al.(2011)modified the Pattern Informatics Method named MPI to extract the ionospheric anomaly by using data from DEMETER satellites which is suitable for 1–3 months short-term prediction.

Preliminary inquiry into the causes of anomaly increase of air temperature by an impending earthquake

In this paper, the causes of the occurrence of the temperature increase by an impending earthquake of low altitude atmosphere and on the ground surface have been preliminarily expounded through several simulative controlexperiments. Air polarized by the anomalous atmospheric static electric field is regarded as the primary factor tocreate air temperature increase to a large degree and over a large area in the sunlight. In addition, another causeis considered as the temperature increase effect of “polluted” air.

Analysis of ionospheric anomaly preceding the Mw7.3 Yutian earthquake

On February 12,2014,a large Mw7. 3 earthquake occurred in Yutian of Xijiang Province,China.We processed the global ionosphere maps provided by CODE（ the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe）and the foF2（ the critical frequency of F2-layer） data of Chongqing ionosonde station to analyze the preearthquake ionospheric anomalies. Solar activities and magnetic storm were checked by the sliding inter quartile range method to remove their effects on the ionosphere. A positive ionospheric anomaly with the large amplitude of 20 TECU was observed near the epicenter on February 3（ 10th day before the earthquake）. In addition,the foF2 at Chongqing station had an unusual increase of more than 40% on the day,which was consistent with the TEC（ Total Electron Content） anomaly. The global disturbance represents that the peak of TEC anomaly didn’t coincide with the vertical projection of epicenter. The TEC anomalous area was closer to the equator,and it mainly occurred from local time 16 ∶ 00 to 20 ∶ 00. An enhancement of TEC with the small amplitude also appeared in the magnetically conjugated region.

Probable satellite thermal infrared anomaly before the Zhangbei M_s=6.2 earthquake on January 10, 1998

This paper used the thermal infrared data of the satellite NOAA-AAVHRR of the north pat of North China (113°~119°E, 38°~42°N), and processed the remote sensing data through radiation adjustment, geometric adjust ment and so on by the software 'The Monitoring and Fast Process System of Earthquake Precursor Thermal Infra red Anomaly', inversed the each surface temperature. Some disturbances effect had been excluded, and thermal infrared temperature anomaly had been extracted by the picture difference method. The Zhangbei M_s=6.2 earth quake is used as the example in the paper, so that in the paper thermal infrared characteristics on time-space before earthquake and the relationship between the anomaly and the earthquake prediction have been summarized. Within more than ten days before the Zhangbei earthquake, the thermal infrared anomaly had emerged widely along Zhangjiakou-Bobal seismic belt, and the anomalous region seemed like a belt and it is also consistent with the tectonic background there; the anomaly expanded from the outside toward the earthquake focus, but the focus lay at the edge of the thermal infrared region. So it is possible to explore a new anomaly observation method for earthquake prediction by observing and studying the satellite thermal infrared anomaly before big earthquakes happen.

Preliminary Study on the Dynamic Variations of the Surface Thermal Flux before and after the M_S5.7 Earthquake of 2005 in Jiujiang City,Jiangxi Province

The temporal and spatial variations of surface latent heat flux(SLHF)and diagnostic air temperature at 2m before and after the M_S5.7 earthquake occurring on November 26,2005 in the area between Ruichang City and Jiujiang City,Jiangxi Province are summarized in this paper.It is found that before the earthquake significant SLHF anomalies and air temperature anomalies occurred in the epicentral area and its vicinity.The air temperature anomalies appeared from the 2nd to the 13th of November,2005 and were concentrated at the epicentral area and in its southern part.Then two days later,that is,from the 4th to the 15th of November 2005,significant SLHF anomalies occurred in the epicentral area and to its northern area where many lakes are distributed along the active faults.During the anomalous period,the SLHF and air temperature at 2m exceeded the sum of average daily value over 26 years and 1.5 times of its mean square deviation.Both anomalies had maintained for 12 days with a peculiar distribution related to the tectonic active zone.It is considered that both of air temperature anomalies and SLHF anomalies are correlated to the movement of thermal flux from underground prior to earthquake.SLHF anomalies occurred over wide regions covered with abundant water,whereas air temperature anomalies occurred over land.

Dynamic evolution of crustal horizontal deformation before the Ms6.4 Menyuan earthquake

An Ms6.4 earthquake occurred in the Menyuan county of Qinghai Province on Jan 21, 2016. In order to recognize the development of horizontal deformation and distinguish precursory deformation anomalies, we obtained coordinates time series, velocity and strain model around the seismic zones from processing of continuous observations from 2010 and 6 times of surveying Global Positioning System （GPS） data since 2009. The results show that, before the earthquake, the eastern segmentation of the Qilian tectonic zone where the Lenglongling Fault located is in strong crustal shortening and compressional strain state with dilatational rates of -15 to -25 ppb. The Lenglongling Fault has a strike-slip rate of 3.1 mm/a and a far-field differential orthogonal rate of 7 mm/a, while differential rate is only 1.2 mm/a near the fault, which reflects its locking feature with strain energy accumulation and high seismic risks. Dynamic evolution of deformation model shows that preevent dilatational rates around the seismic zones increases from 15 ppb/a to -20 ppb/a with its center moving to the source areas. Time series of N components of G337 station, which is 13.7 km away from the Lenglongling Fault, exhibit a 5 mm/a acceleration anomaly. Time series of base-station QHME （in Menyuan） displays a reverse acceleration from the end of Sep. to Dec., 2016 when it comes to a largest deviation, and the accumulative displacement is more than 4 mm and the value reverse till the earthquake. In our results, coseismic displacement of N, E, U components in QHME site are 3.0 mm, 3.0 mm, -5.4 mm, respectively. If we profile these values onto the Lenglongling Fault, we can achieve a 1.1 mm of strike slip and 4.1 mm updip slip relative to the hanging wall.

Study on the Method of Short-Term Synthetic Earthquake Prediction in the North China Region

Based on the extraction and calculation of the short-term seismic precursory information magnitude from the 114 major precursory observations in the North China region, and together with consideration of factors such as geological structure, seismicity, crustal thickness, and in particular, the current geodynamics of the region, the authors studied the time-space evolution characteristics of the short-term earthquake precursory information magnitude and its relationship with earthquakes and proposed the index and method for the short-term synthetic prediction of earthquakes with M S≥5.0 in the North China region. The inspection through R-value shows that the method is effective to a certain extent for earthquake prediction.

Ionospheric disturbances associated with the 2015 M7.8 Nepal earthquake

Based on the total electron content （TEC） derived from Global Positioning System （GPS） observations of the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China （CMONOC） and the Global Ionosphere Map （GIM） from the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe （CODE）, we detected and analyzed the ionospheric variations during the 2015 M7.8 Nepal earthquake （including the pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies and coseismic ionospheric disturbances （CIDs） following the main shock）. The analysis of vertical total electron content （VTEC） time series shows that the large-scale ionospheric anomalies appeared near the epicenter two days prior to the earthquake. Moreover, the pre-earthcluake ionospheric anomalies were also observed in the geomagnetically conjugated region. In view of solar-terrestrial environment, the pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies could be associated with the Nepal earthquake. In addition, we also detected the CIDs through the high-frequency GPS observation stations. The CIDs had obvious oscillated waveforms with the peak-to-peak disturbance amplitudes of about I TECu and 0.4 TECu, which propagated approximately with the horizontal velocities of 877 ±75 m/s and 319 ± 30 m/s, respectively. The former is triggered directly by the acoustic waves which originated from the energy release of the earthquake near the epicenter, while the latter could be stimulated by the acoustic-gravity waves from the partial transformation of the acoustic waves.

Studies on earthquake precursors in China:A review for recent 50 years

Since the 1960s, China has been conducting a persistent and systematic observation and monitoring experiment to falsify the hypothesis of premonitory anomalies and the predictability of earthquakes and the application of the assessment of time-dependent seismic hazard to the reduction of earthquake disaster risk. Such an endeavor, with cases of both successes and failures, provided lessons which are heuristic for the studies in earthquake science and social sustainability. This paper provides the back- ground information of such an endeavor, discussing on the achievements and space for improvements of this lane lastin~ ~ncl cantintrint7 ~ffnrl-

Pre-seismic gravity anomalies before Linkou Ms6.4 earthquake by continuous gravity observation of Crustal Movement Observation Network of China

A Ms6.4 earthquake occurred at Linkou country, Heilongjiang Province （44.8°N, 129.9°E） on January 2, 2016 at a depth of 580 km. Pre-seismic graviW anomalies obtained at a 1 Hz sampling rate from Crustal Movement Observation Network of China （CMONOC） are analyzed after the earthquake. The results show that： （1） different from previous studies, both pre-seismic amplitude perturbation and co-seismic amplitude perturbation are not critical inversely proportional to epicentral distance; （2） unlike shallow earthquake, the pre-seismic and co-seismic amplitude perturbation of gravity illustrate syn- chronous spatial variation characters with decrease of epicentral distance for Linkou earthquake. This may because Linkou earthquake is a deep earthquake and occurred in Pacific Plate subduction zone; （3） compared to basement and semi-basement, cave can provide a better observation environment for gPhone gravimeter to detect pre-seismic gravity anomalies.

Extraction of two tsunamis signals generated by earthquakes around the Pacific rim

As one of the ocean sudden natural disasters,the tsunami is not easily to differentiate from the ocean variation in the open ocean due to the tsunami wave amplitude is less than one meter with hundreds of kilometers wavelength. But the wave height will increases up to tens of meters with enormous energy when the tsunami arrives at the coast. It would not only devastate entire cities near coast,but also kill millions of people. It is necessary to forecast and make warning before the tsunami arriving for many countries and regions around the Pacific rim. Two kinds of data were used in this study to extract the signals of 2011 Tohoku tsunami and 2014Iquique tsunami. Wave undulations from DART（ Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis） buoys and SLA from altimetry could extract the tsunami signals generated by this two earthquake. The signals of Tohoku tsunami were stronger than that of Iquique tsunami probably due to the 2011 Tohoku tsunami was generated by a magnitude 9. 0 earthquake and the 2014 Iquique tsunami was triggered by a magnitude 8. 2 earthquake.

Research on the relationship between geophysical structural features and earthquakes in Mid-Yunnan and the surrounding area

In this study, we analyzed the gravity and, magnetic characteristics, and the occurrence of a fault zone and discussed the relationships between the two locations. The results reveal that the subsurface structures strikes are different compared with those in the research region. In other words, the geophysical advantageous directions from the gravity and magnetic anomalies are not the same as those caused by the surface structures. The local horizontal gradient results from the gravity and magnetic anomalies show that the majority of earthquakes occur along an intense fault zone, which is a zone of abrupt gravity and negative magnetic change, where the shapes match very well. From the distribution of earthquakes in this area, we find that it has experienced more than 11 earthquake events with magnitude larger than Ms7.0. In addition, water development sites such as Jinshajiang, Lancangjiang, and the Red River and Pearl River watersheds have been hit ten times by earthquakes of this magnitude. It is observed that strong earthquakes occur frequently in the Holocene active fault zone.

Numerical simulation of precursors of Gonghe M7.0 earthquake in Qinghai Province

Based on a simplified media model of Gonghe area, the precursor characteristics of Gonghe M 7.0 earthquake in 1990 are simulated in this paper by using the constitutive relationship of binary medium (solid and water). The results show that the simulated state distribution and extension variation of media are identical with the spatial and temporal distribution of reliable anomalies before Gonghe earthquake. The study also suggests that the development of the Gonghe earthquake has experienced a series of processes such as elastic deformation of large scale, early nonelastic dilatation, strain softening and elastic recovery in the neighbour region of Xining, nonelasscale, early nonelastic dilatation, strain softening and elastic recovery in the neighbour region of nonelastic dilatation of high dense block near seismic source and earthquake occurrence. Therefore, it can be concluded that this earthquake development is neither a simple process for fissures developing and linking up with one another, nor a process of nonelastic volume expanion and water flowing into medium around seismic source, conrary, it is a complicated medium saate changing process, and the style of such changing depends on geological structure environment of seismic source and its neighbour region. It is considered that different earthquakes are accompanied by different geological conditions, the spatial and temporal behavior of their precusors are certainly different.

Analysis of foreshock sequence of the 1975 Haicheng earthquake of Ms 7.3

The 'earthquake nucleation' is discussed in this paper. The acceleration is a property of the nucleation phase and is a necessary condition of earthquake instability too. If the acceleration property of this nucleating process is described by the equation dΩ/dt=C/(tf-t)n, the process can be summarized briefly that the rate of cumulative seismic release is proportional to the inverse power of the remaining time to failure. Based on this principle, the foreshock sequence of the 1975 Haicheng earthquake with Ms7.3, was analysed backward. It is stated clearly that the time-to-failure and magnitude of the mainshock can be predicted successfully if the coefficient r2 attains to the maximum. In the estimation of mainshock time, the error can generally be less than, or far less than,one-half the remaining time between the time of the last used data point and the mainshock.

Analysis of Sacks Body Strain Interference at Beida No.200 Station in Changping and Earthquake Case Study

The relationship between Sacks body strain deformation at Beida No. 200 station in Changping and tidal solids,atmospheric pressure and water level is analyzed in this paper. Sacks body strain deformation data before the M_S8. 0 Wenchuan earthquake is studied based on the analysis of the interference. The short-impending anomaly of the body strain deformation is considered to be reliable. The anomaly characteristics conclude:( 1) The trend anomaly as extensional change of the body strain deformations on a quasi 1 year time scale before the Wenchuan earthquake was recorded, and the accumulative amount was about 4000 × 10^(-9). Correspondingly,the short-term precursor of earthquake was manifested as an extensional abrupt change.( 2) The extensional intermittent anomalous abrupt change was recorded by body strainmeters between March1 and May 7 in 2008.( 3) Four compressional abrupt changes were recorded in the intermittent distortions recorded between April 13 and May 11.( 4) High frequency components were increased in the distortion process in May 1 to 3,5,7,and 9 to 12,caused by slow earthquakes before the Wenchuan earthquake according to wavelet analysis. The abnormal phenomena are summarized and the mechanics discussed in this paper. Strain solid tide distortions in body strain observations,the continuous repeated extensional and compressional abrupt changes accompanying these distortions,and the increase of high frequency components can be regarded as the index of short term and impending earthquake prediction,based on analysis of interference factors such as air pressure and water level.

Possible Thermal Brightness Temperature Anomalies Associated with the Yutian (China) M_S7.3 Earthquake on February 12,2014

In order to analyze the seismic brightness temperature anomalies associated with the Yutian earthquake which occurred at Yutian County, Xinjiang on February 12,2014, daily brightness temperature data was collected from the China Geostationary Meteorological Satellite FY-2E,for the period from May 1,2012 to April 30,2014 and the geographical extent of 30°- 45°N latitude and 70°- 95°E longitude. The continuous wavelet transform method was used to analyze the relative wavelet power spectrum( RWPS) of brightness temperature data for each pixel. And the RWPS time-spatial evolution within the analysis area was obtained. The results showed that the anomaly started to appear at the vicinity of epicentre since October 2013, and anomalous areas gradually enlarged and stretched towards to Altun fault zone and the eastern part of West Kunlun fault zone. Anomalies began to appear at fault zones at Middle Tianshan Mountains, Southern Tianshan Mountains and the western part of the West Kunlun Mountains area which is located at the western margin of Tarim basin,since November 2013. Then anomalous area further enlarged and gathered along fault zones,and eventually,anomalous belts were developed along fault zones around the Tarim basin. The anomaly area and amplitude reached their maximum in late December 2013 and early January 2014. With the impending earthquake,the anomaly area and amplitude dwindled. Anomalies at the vicinity of epicentre disappeared days before the occurrence of the main shock. However, the anomaly at Altun and Middle Tianshan areas still remained. After the main shock,the anomaly attenuated quickly and the whole anomaly disappeared in late February 2014.

Seismic Sequence Characteristics and Precursory Anomalies of the M_S6.3 and M_S6.4 Da Qaidam Earthquakes in 2008～2009

In this paper,the seismogenic structures of the Da Qaidam strong earthquakes are preliminarily discussed by using the regional seismotectonic data and focal mechanism solutions. Analysis is done on the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the two strong earthquake sequences in Da Qaidam in combination with the sequence distribution characteristics of the M6. 6 earthquake of 2003 and the five strong earthquakes of about M5. 0 in 2004 in Delingha. At the same time,the regional characteristics of the historical seismic activity are also investigated. Preliminary analysis is done on the influence of the two M8. 0 earthquakes in the past 10 years on this region. Precursory anomalies and their characteristics are discussed in combination with the analysis of the precursor observation data of Qinghai Province.

Crustal structure beneath Tien Shan orogenic belt and its adjacent regions from multi-scale seismic data

As one of the world's most active intracontinental mountain belts, Tien Shan has posed questions for researchers regarding the formation of different tectonic units and active shallow seismicity. Here, we used a huge data set comprising of 7094 earthquakes from local, regional and teleseismic seismic stations. We used waveform modeling and multi-scale double-difference earthquake relocation technique to better constrain the source parameters of the earthquakes. The new set of events provided us with better initial earthquake locations for further tomographic investigation. We found that reverse-faulting earthquakes dominate the whole study area while the fault plane solutions for earthquakes beneath the northwestern Tarim Basin and the Main Pamir Thrust are diverse. There is a low-velocity anomaly beneath Bashkaingdy at depth of 80 km, and high-velocity anomalies beneath central Tien Shan at shallower depths. These observations are the keys to understand the mechanism of Tien Shan's formation because of Tarim Basin northward and Kazakh Shield's southward subduction in the south and north respectively. Velocities beneath western Tien Shan are relatively high. We thus infer that the Western Tien Shan is relatively less deformed than the eastern Tien Shan primarily due to a relatively brittle mantle.