A simulation system of seismogeny, occurrence and development of earthquakes

A personal computer processing system for simulation of earthquake seismogeny, occurrence and development is given in this paper. It can automatically process the discontinuous events such as earthquake occurrence during computation. The program can be paused when you want to display the computation results. After you analyze these graphical results the simulation process can be continued.

Measuring ground deformations caused by 2015 Mw7.8 Nepal earthquake using high-rate GPS data

The April 25, 2015 Mw7.8 Nepal earthquake was successfully recorded by Crustal Movement Observation Network of China （CMONOC） and Nepal Geodetic Array （NGA）. We processed the high-rate GPS data （1 Hz and 5 Hz） by using relative kinematic positioning and derived dynamic ground motions caused by this large earthquake. The dynamic displacements time series clearly indicated the displacement amplitude of each station was related to the rupture directivity. The stations which located in the di- rection of rupture propagation had larger displacement amplitudes than others. Also dynamic ground displacement exceeding 5 cm was detected by the GPS station that was 2000 km away from the epicenter. Permanent coseismic displacements were resolved from the near-field high-rate GPS stations with wavelet decomposition-reconstruction method and P-wave arrivals were also detected with S transform method. The results of this study can be used for earthquake rupture process and Earthquake Early Warning studies.

On numerical earthquake prediction

Can earthquakes be predicted？ How should people overcome the difficulties encountered in the study of earthquake prediction？ This issue can take inspiration from the experiences of weather forecast. Although weather forecasting took a period of about half a century to advance from empirical to numerical forecast, it has achieved significant success. A consensus has been reached among the Chinese seismological community that earth- quake prediction must also develop from empirical fore- casting to physical prediction. However, it is seldom mentioned that physical prediction is characterized by quantitatively numerical predictions based on physical laws. This article discusses five key components for numerical earthquake prediction and their current status. We conclude that numerical earthquake prediction should now be put on the planning agenda and its roadmap designed, seismic stations should be deployed and observations made according to the needs of numerical prediction, and theoretical research should be carried out.

Tunnel effect of fractal fault and transient S-wave velocity rupture (TSVR) of in-plane shear fault

Transient S wave velocity rupture (TSVR) means the velocity of fault rupture propagation is between S wave velocity α and P wave velocity β . Its existing in the rupture of in plane ( i.e . strike slip) fault has been proved, but in 2 dimensional classical model, there are two difficulties in transient S wave velocity rupture, i.e ., initialization difficulty and divergence difficulty in interpreting the realization of TSVR. The initialization difficulty means, when v ↑ v R (Rayleigh wave velocity), the dynamic stress strength factor K 2(t) →+0, and changes from positive into negative in the interval ( v R, β ). How v transit the forbidden of ( v R, β )? The divergence difficulty means K 2(t) →+∞ when v ↓ β . Here we introduce the concept of fractal and tunnel effect that exist everywhere in fault. The structure of all the faults is fractal with multiple cracks. The velocity of fault rupture is differentiate of the length of the fault respect to time, so the rupture velocity is also fractal. The tunnel effect means the dynamic rupture crosses over the interval of the cracks, and the coalescence of the intervals is slower than the propagation of disturbance. Suppose the area of earthquake nucleation is critical or sub critical propagation everywhere, the arriving of disturbance triggers or accelerates the propagation of cracks tip at once, and the observation system cannot distinguish the front of disturbance and the tip of fracture. Then the speed of disturbance may be identified as fracture velocity, and the phenomenon of TSVR appears, which is an apparent velocity. The real reason of apparent velocity is that the mathematics model of shear rupture is simplified of complex process originally. The dual character of rupture velocity means that the apparent velocity of fault and the real velocity of micro crack extending, which are different in physics, but are unified in rupture criterion. Introducing the above mentioned concept to the calculation of K 2 (t) , the difficulty of initialization can be overcome, and the integral equation of triggering the initialization of TSVR is given quantitatively. By solving this integral equation, the lower limit of TSVR is 1.105 3 β , not β , and the divergence difficulty is overcome. TSVR is unstable solution, and may degenerate to sub Rayleigh wave velocity rupture immediately where the non critical condition can be measured. The results of this paper show that the initialization and continuum depends on the condition of earthquake nucleation in seismogenic area.

Analysis of the role of branching angle in the dynamic rupture process on a 3-D branching fault system

The fault branching phenomenon,which may heavily influence the patterns of rupture propagation in fault systems,is one of the geometric complexities of fault systems that is widely observed in nature.In this study,we investigate the effect of the branching angle on the rupture inclination and the interaction between branch planes in two-fork branching fault systems by numerical simulation and theoretical analysis based on Mohr’s circle.A friction law dependent on normal stress is used,and special attention is paid to studying how ruptures on the upper and lower branch planes affect the stress and rupture on each other separately.The results show that the two branch planes affect each other in different patterns and that the intensity of the effect changes with the branching angle.The rupture of the lower branch plane has a negative effect on the rupture of the upper branch plane in the case of a small branching angle but has almost no negative effect in the case of a large branching angle.The rupture of the upper branch plane,however,suppresses the rupture of the lower branch plane regardless of whether the branching angle is large or small.

Seismic Deformation and Seismic Resistance Analysis of Shapai Roller Compacted Concrete Arch Dam Based on Field Monitoring and Dynamic Finite Element Method

Shapai Roller Compacted Concrete(RCC) Arch Dam is the highest RCC arch dam of the 20th century in the world with a maximum height of 132m,and it is the only concrete arch dam near the epicentre of Wenchuan earthquake on May 12th,2008.The seismic damage to the dam and the resistance of the dam has drawn great attention.This paper analyzed the response and resistance of the dam to the seismic wave using numerical simulations with comparison to the monitored data.The field investigation after the earthquake and analysis of insitu data record showed that there was only little variation in the opening size at the dam and foundation interface,transverse joints and inducing joints before and after the earthquake.The overall stability of the dam abutment resistance body was quite good except a little relaxation was observed.The results of the dynamic finite element method(FEM) showed that the sizes of the openings obtained from the numerical modeling are comparable with the monitored values,and the change of the opening size is in millimeter range.This study revealed that Shapai arch dam exhibited high seismic resistance and overload capacity in the Wenchuan earthquake event.The comparison of the monitored and simulated results showed that the numerical method applied in this paper well simulated the seismic response of the dam.The method could be useful in the future application on the safety evaluation of RCC dams.

Steadiness and stop of brittle fracture driven by the forces in different distances

Based on the principle of fracture mechanics, the stop criterion of brittle fracture is proposed and the equation of minimal crack stop is given. By using the zero frequency Green function, the steadiness and stop of brittle fracture driven by the concentrated force and simple distributed forces in different locales are analyzed. The critical loading, unsteady boundary line and location of stop points under some typical conditions are calculated. The steady growth caused by the near forces is significant in interpreting the creep and the forming of some tectonics. Whereas the unsteady propagation caused by the forces in different distances from the crack is significant in interpreting the occurring and stop of earthquakes. It is suggested that the strong earthquakes may be the result of compound of the near-field and far-field forces. The results of this paper are also valuable for investigation of the mechanism of induced earthquake.

Static solution of a crack degenerated from dynamic solution of a propagating crack

A two-dimensional planar crack which propagates along its self-plane is taken as the fault model. The static solution of the classic (linear elastic fracture mechanics) model for this study for three types of two-dimensional cracks are obtained by means of degeneration method based on the dynamic solution obtained by Kostrov (1975 ). The degeneration method used in this study has two points of convenience: ① One can obtain the solutions of different types of cracks by using the unified method; ②It is avoided to use displacement potential and stress function which physical meaning is not straight. The results obtained in this paper are just the same as that obtained by previous authors who solved the equilibrium equations by means of integral transform method.It is showed that: ① The static solution cannot be separated from the dynamic one, because the static solution also has the meaning of duration time. ② Both the static and the dynamic solutions of a critical crack must satisfy the same criteria, and the evolution from static to dynamic solution must be associated with some additional disturbance. Particularly, the quantity of disturbance in some form has to be imposed when a critical crack is ready to initiate.