Population and housing grid data spatialization hased on 340 grid samples （ 1 kmx 1 kin） is used in- stead of regional statistical data to simulate the population and housing distribution data of Yunnan Province （ ...Population and housing grid data spatialization hased on 340 grid samples （ 1 kmx 1 kin） is used in- stead of regional statistical data to simulate the population and housing distribution data of Yunnan Province （ 1 km×1 kin） for rapid loss assessment ibr the Jinggu Ms6.6 earthquake. The resuhs indicate that the method reflects the actual population and housing distribution and that the assessment results are eredihle. The method can be used to quickly provide spatial orientation disaster information after an earthquake.展开更多
As a result of our ability to acquire large volumes of real-time earthquake observation data, coupled with increased computer performance, near real-time seismic instrument intensity can be obtained by using ground mo...As a result of our ability to acquire large volumes of real-time earthquake observation data, coupled with increased computer performance, near real-time seismic instrument intensity can be obtained by using ground motion data observed by instruments and by using the appropriate spatial interpolation methods. By combining vulnerability study results from earthquake disaster research with earthquake disaster assessment models, we can estimate the losses caused by devastating earthquakes, in an attempt to provide more reliable information for earthquake emergency response and decision support. This paper analyzes the latest progress on the methods of rapid earthquake loss estimation at home and abroad. A new method involving seismic instrument intensity rapid reporting to estimate earthquake loss is proposed and the relevant software is developed. Finally, a case study using the ML4.9 earthquake that occurred in Shun-chang county, Fujian Province on March 13, 2007 is given as an example of the proposed method.展开更多
To estimate human loss in an earthquake-prone area, it is necessary to analyze the role played by the spatiotemporal distribution of the area’s resident population. In order to evaluate earthquake impact, this articl...To estimate human loss in an earthquake-prone area, it is necessary to analyze the role played by the spatiotemporal distribution of the area’s resident population. In order to evaluate earthquake impact, this article focuses on the spatiotemporal distribution of population and five scenario earthquakes that form the basis for loss estimation in the city of Sylhet, Bangladesh. Four temporal contexts(weekday, weekly holiday, the 30 days of Ramadan, and strike days) expand the more typical daytime and nighttime settings in which to examine hazard risk. The population distribution for every 2 hour interval in a day is developed for each type of day. A relationship between the occupancy classes and average space(persons per 100 m^2)is used to distribute people in each building regardless of building locations. A total daytime and nighttime population is obtained for each building and the estimated nighttime population is used to model the population for four temporal scenarios in a year based on different factors and weights. The resulting data are employed to estimate population loss for each of the temporal and earthquake scenarios. This study used building-specific human vulnerability curves developed by the Central American Probabilistic Risk Assessment(CAPRA) to obtain possible loss of life estimates. The results reveal that there is a high positive correlation between the spatiotemporal distribution of population and the potential number of casualties.展开更多
Loss assessment and decision-making are essential for earthquake emergency rescues,and for scientific prediction of seismic damage and determination of rescue objectives.In practice,however,there exist some problems,s...Loss assessment and decision-making are essential for earthquake emergency rescues,and for scientific prediction of seismic damage and determination of rescue objectives.In practice,however,there exist some problems,such as basic data not being precise and rich enough and decision making not having systematic and complete criteria.This paper tries to solve these problems using the method of data indexation by constructing an index system for earthquake emergency loss assessment and decision-making.展开更多
This project is aimed at bridging the three planes,from basic research,through enabling processes,to engineered systems.At the basic research plane,we have been working to improve our collective understanding about ob...This project is aimed at bridging the three planes,from basic research,through enabling processes,to engineered systems.At the basic research plane,we have been working to improve our collective understanding about obstacles to implementing mitigation practices,owner decision processes (in connection with other MCEER projects),and public policy processes.At the level of enabling processes,we have been seeking to develop an understanding of how obstacles to greater mitigation can be overcome by improved policy design and processes.At the engineered systems plane, our work is intended to result in practical guidelines for devising policies and programs with appropriate motivation and incentives for implementing policies and programs once adopted.This phase of the research has been aimed,first,at a thorough,multidisciplinary review of the literature concerning obstacles to implementation.Second,the research has focused on advancing the state of the art by developing means for integrating the insights offered by diverse perspectives on the implementation process from the several social,behavioral,and decision sciences.The research establishes a basis for testing our understanding of these processes in the case of hospital retrofit decisions.展开更多
For meeting the need of rapid development of economy in Shanghai and the protection against earthquake and disaster reduction in the mega city, it is necessary to build a information system for emergence decision on t...For meeting the need of rapid development of economy in Shanghai and the protection against earthquake and disaster reduction in the mega city, it is necessary to build a information system for emergence decision on the protection against earthquake and disaster reduction in the city. In this paper, GIS is applied to 'the information system for emergence decision on the protection against earthquake and disaster reduction in Shanghai City (Baoshan experiment region)'. We introduce to the structure and effect of each functional module in this information system. This information system consists of 7 functional modules:background information of seismology and geology, subsystem for rapid evaluation of damage loss from earthquake, subsystem for the decisive information on earthquake emergence, information query, maintenance and management of system, help, quit. The key parts of this information system are the subsystem for rapid evaluation of damage loss from earthquake and the subsystem for the decisive information on earthquake emergence. Also, this paper introduces to the application of technology of color infra-red aerial photograph remote sensing to this information system.展开更多
ith urban reformation and opening becoming deeper,the work of protection against earthquake and disaster reduction would be more important.In this paper,some ideas are suggested about establishing the information syst...ith urban reformation and opening becoming deeper,the work of protection against earthquake and disaster reduction would be more important.In this paper,some ideas are suggested about establishing the information system for emergency decisions on protection against earthquake and disaster reduction in cities .The information system mainly includes a subsystem for rapid evaluation of damage loss from earthquake (which includes input of seismic information,distribution of earthquake intensity,evaluation of seismic fragility on all social factors and etc.) and a subsystem for the decisive information of seismic emergency(which mainly includes project of disaster relief,project of personnel evacuation,dangerous degree warning for the dangerous articlesstoring places and protection measures against them,assistant decision on fire due to earthquake,location of headquarter for providing disaster relief,and etc.). It is thought that the data investigation and collection about all kinds of buildings(including lifeline engineering)are the most important and difficult work as establishing this system.展开更多
Rapid estimation of post-earthquake building damage and loss is very important in urgent response efforts.The current approach leaves much room for improvement in estimating ground motion and correctly incorporating t...Rapid estimation of post-earthquake building damage and loss is very important in urgent response efforts.The current approach leaves much room for improvement in estimating ground motion and correctly incorporating the uncertainty and spatial correlation of the loss.This study proposed a new approach for rapidly estimating post-earthquake building loss with reasonable accuracy.The proposed method interpolates ground motion based on the observed ground motion using the Ground Motion Prediction Equation(GMPE)as the weight.It samples the building seismic loss quantile considering the spatial loss correlation that is expressed by Gaussian copula,and kriging is applied to reduce the dimension of direct sampling for estimation speed.The proposed approach was validated using three historical earthquake events in Japan with actual loss reports,and was then applied to predict the building loss amount for the March 2022 Fukushima Mw7.3 earthquake.The proposed method has high potential in future emergency efforts such as search,rescue,and evacuation planning.展开更多
The seismic design criterion adopted in the existing seismic design codes is reviewed. It is pointed out that the presently used seismic design criterion is not satisfied with the requirements of nowadays social and e...The seismic design criterion adopted in the existing seismic design codes is reviewed. It is pointed out that the presently used seismic design criterion is not satisfied with the requirements of nowadays social and economic development. A new performance-based seismic design criterion that is composed of three components is presented in this paper. It can not only effectively control the economic losses and casualty, but also ensure the building's function in proper operation during earthquakes. The three components are: classification of seismic design for buildings, determination of seismic design intensity and/or seismic design ground motion for controlling seismic economic losses and casualties, and determination of the importance factors in terms of service periods of buildings. For controlling the seismic human losses, the idea of socially acceptable casualty level is presented and the 'Optimal Economic Decision Model' and 'Optimal Safe Decision Model' are established. Finally, a new method is recommended for calculating the importance factors of structures by adjusting structures service period on the base of more important structure with longer service period than the conventional ones. Therefore, the more important structure with longer service periods will be designed for higher seismic loads, in case the exceedance probability of seismic hazard in different service period is same.展开更多
This study achieved the construction of earthquake disaster scenarios based on physics-based methods-from fault dynamic rupture to seismic wave propagation-and then population and economic loss estimations.The physics...This study achieved the construction of earthquake disaster scenarios based on physics-based methods-from fault dynamic rupture to seismic wave propagation-and then population and economic loss estimations.The physics-based dynamic rupture and strong ground motion simulations can fully consider the three-dimensional complexity of physical parameters such as fault geometry,stress field,rock properties,and terrain.Quantitative analysis of multiple seismic disaster scenarios along the Qujiang Fault in western Yunnan Province in southwestern China based on different nucleation locations was achieved.The results indicate that the northwestern segment of the Qujiang Fault is expected to experience significantly higher levels of damage compared to the southeastern segment.Additionally,there are significant variations in human losses,even though the economic losses are similar across different scenarios.Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture,Chuxiong Yi Autonomous Prefecture,Yuxi City,Honghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture,and Wenshan Zhuang and Miao Autonomous Prefecture were identified as at medium to high seismic risks,with Yuxi and Honghe being particularly vulnerable.Implementing targeted earthquake prevention measures in Yuxi and Honghe will significantly mitigate the potential risks posed by the Qujiang Fault.Notably,although the fault is within Yuxi,Honghe is likely to suffer the most severe damage.These findings emphasize the importance of considering rupture directivity and its influence on ground motion distribution when assessing seismic risk.展开更多
基金supported by the Special Scientific Research Fund of China Earthquake Administration(201308018-5,201108002)
文摘Population and housing grid data spatialization hased on 340 grid samples （ 1 kmx 1 kin） is used in- stead of regional statistical data to simulate the population and housing distribution data of Yunnan Province （ 1 km×1 kin） for rapid loss assessment ibr the Jinggu Ms6.6 earthquake. The resuhs indicate that the method reflects the actual population and housing distribution and that the assessment results are eredihle. The method can be used to quickly provide spatial orientation disaster information after an earthquake.
基金National Key Technology R&D Program Granted (No. 2009BAK55B01)
文摘As a result of our ability to acquire large volumes of real-time earthquake observation data, coupled with increased computer performance, near real-time seismic instrument intensity can be obtained by using ground motion data observed by instruments and by using the appropriate spatial interpolation methods. By combining vulnerability study results from earthquake disaster research with earthquake disaster assessment models, we can estimate the losses caused by devastating earthquakes, in an attempt to provide more reliable information for earthquake emergency response and decision support. This paper analyzes the latest progress on the methods of rapid earthquake loss estimation at home and abroad. A new method involving seismic instrument intensity rapid reporting to estimate earthquake loss is proposed and the relevant software is developed. Finally, a case study using the ML4.9 earthquake that occurred in Shun-chang county, Fujian Province on March 13, 2007 is given as an example of the proposed method.
文摘To estimate human loss in an earthquake-prone area, it is necessary to analyze the role played by the spatiotemporal distribution of the area’s resident population. In order to evaluate earthquake impact, this article focuses on the spatiotemporal distribution of population and five scenario earthquakes that form the basis for loss estimation in the city of Sylhet, Bangladesh. Four temporal contexts(weekday, weekly holiday, the 30 days of Ramadan, and strike days) expand the more typical daytime and nighttime settings in which to examine hazard risk. The population distribution for every 2 hour interval in a day is developed for each type of day. A relationship between the occupancy classes and average space(persons per 100 m^2)is used to distribute people in each building regardless of building locations. A total daytime and nighttime population is obtained for each building and the estimated nighttime population is used to model the population for four temporal scenarios in a year based on different factors and weights. The resulting data are employed to estimate population loss for each of the temporal and earthquake scenarios. This study used building-specific human vulnerability curves developed by the Central American Probabilistic Risk Assessment(CAPRA) to obtain possible loss of life estimates. The results reveal that there is a high positive correlation between the spatiotemporal distribution of population and the potential number of casualties.
基金sponsored by the National Science & Technology Support Program (2012BAK15B06-01)the Special Fund for Basic Scientific Research Operations in Institute of Geology,CEA (IGCEA1109)the National Science and Techonology Support Program,China (2008BAK50B03-07)
文摘Loss assessment and decision-making are essential for earthquake emergency rescues,and for scientific prediction of seismic damage and determination of rescue objectives.In practice,however,there exist some problems,such as basic data not being precise and rich enough and decision making not having systematic and complete criteria.This paper tries to solve these problems using the method of data indexation by constructing an index system for earthquake emergency loss assessment and decision-making.
基金the National Science Foundation,Earthquake Engineering Research Centers Program through MCEER.
文摘This project is aimed at bridging the three planes,from basic research,through enabling processes,to engineered systems.At the basic research plane,we have been working to improve our collective understanding about obstacles to implementing mitigation practices,owner decision processes (in connection with other MCEER projects),and public policy processes.At the level of enabling processes,we have been seeking to develop an understanding of how obstacles to greater mitigation can be overcome by improved policy design and processes.At the engineered systems plane, our work is intended to result in practical guidelines for devising policies and programs with appropriate motivation and incentives for implementing policies and programs once adopted.This phase of the research has been aimed,first,at a thorough,multidisciplinary review of the literature concerning obstacles to implementation.Second,the research has focused on advancing the state of the art by developing means for integrating the insights offered by diverse perspectives on the implementation process from the several social,behavioral,and decision sciences.The research establishes a basis for testing our understanding of these processes in the case of hospital retrofit decisions.
基金Science and Technology Development Fund Item of Shanghai !(962512006).
文摘For meeting the need of rapid development of economy in Shanghai and the protection against earthquake and disaster reduction in the mega city, it is necessary to build a information system for emergence decision on the protection against earthquake and disaster reduction in the city. In this paper, GIS is applied to 'the information system for emergence decision on the protection against earthquake and disaster reduction in Shanghai City (Baoshan experiment region)'. We introduce to the structure and effect of each functional module in this information system. This information system consists of 7 functional modules:background information of seismology and geology, subsystem for rapid evaluation of damage loss from earthquake, subsystem for the decisive information on earthquake emergence, information query, maintenance and management of system, help, quit. The key parts of this information system are the subsystem for rapid evaluation of damage loss from earthquake and the subsystem for the decisive information on earthquake emergence. Also, this paper introduces to the application of technology of color infra-red aerial photograph remote sensing to this information system.
文摘ith urban reformation and opening becoming deeper,the work of protection against earthquake and disaster reduction would be more important.In this paper,some ideas are suggested about establishing the information system for emergency decisions on protection against earthquake and disaster reduction in cities .The information system mainly includes a subsystem for rapid evaluation of damage loss from earthquake (which includes input of seismic information,distribution of earthquake intensity,evaluation of seismic fragility on all social factors and etc.) and a subsystem for the decisive information of seismic emergency(which mainly includes project of disaster relief,project of personnel evacuation,dangerous degree warning for the dangerous articlesstoring places and protection measures against them,assistant decision on fire due to earthquake,location of headquarter for providing disaster relief,and etc.). It is thought that the data investigation and collection about all kinds of buildings(including lifeline engineering)are the most important and difficult work as establishing this system.
基金supported by the Scientific Research Fund of the Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration(Grant No.2021B09)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51978634)。
文摘Rapid estimation of post-earthquake building damage and loss is very important in urgent response efforts.The current approach leaves much room for improvement in estimating ground motion and correctly incorporating the uncertainty and spatial correlation of the loss.This study proposed a new approach for rapidly estimating post-earthquake building loss with reasonable accuracy.The proposed method interpolates ground motion based on the observed ground motion using the Ground Motion Prediction Equation(GMPE)as the weight.It samples the building seismic loss quantile considering the spatial loss correlation that is expressed by Gaussian copula,and kriging is applied to reduce the dimension of direct sampling for estimation speed.The proposed approach was validated using three historical earthquake events in Japan with actual loss reports,and was then applied to predict the building loss amount for the March 2022 Fukushima Mw7.3 earthquake.The proposed method has high potential in future emergency efforts such as search,rescue,and evacuation planning.
基金Chinese National Natural Science Foundation with the grant No.59895410the China Basic Research and Development Project:the Mechanism and Prediction of the Strong Earthquake of the Continental under the Grant No.95130603
文摘The seismic design criterion adopted in the existing seismic design codes is reviewed. It is pointed out that the presently used seismic design criterion is not satisfied with the requirements of nowadays social and economic development. A new performance-based seismic design criterion that is composed of three components is presented in this paper. It can not only effectively control the economic losses and casualty, but also ensure the building's function in proper operation during earthquakes. The three components are: classification of seismic design for buildings, determination of seismic design intensity and/or seismic design ground motion for controlling seismic economic losses and casualties, and determination of the importance factors in terms of service periods of buildings. For controlling the seismic human losses, the idea of socially acceptable casualty level is presented and the 'Optimal Economic Decision Model' and 'Optimal Safe Decision Model' are established. Finally, a new method is recommended for calculating the importance factors of structures by adjusting structures service period on the base of more important structure with longer service period than the conventional ones. Therefore, the more important structure with longer service periods will be designed for higher seismic loads, in case the exceedance probability of seismic hazard in different service period is same.
基金supported by the Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Geophysical High-Resolution Imaging Technology (2022B1212010002)Key Special Project for Introduced Talents Team of the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou) (GML2019ZD0203)the Shenzhen Science and Technology Program (KQTD20170810111725321)
文摘This study achieved the construction of earthquake disaster scenarios based on physics-based methods-from fault dynamic rupture to seismic wave propagation-and then population and economic loss estimations.The physics-based dynamic rupture and strong ground motion simulations can fully consider the three-dimensional complexity of physical parameters such as fault geometry,stress field,rock properties,and terrain.Quantitative analysis of multiple seismic disaster scenarios along the Qujiang Fault in western Yunnan Province in southwestern China based on different nucleation locations was achieved.The results indicate that the northwestern segment of the Qujiang Fault is expected to experience significantly higher levels of damage compared to the southeastern segment.Additionally,there are significant variations in human losses,even though the economic losses are similar across different scenarios.Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture,Chuxiong Yi Autonomous Prefecture,Yuxi City,Honghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture,and Wenshan Zhuang and Miao Autonomous Prefecture were identified as at medium to high seismic risks,with Yuxi and Honghe being particularly vulnerable.Implementing targeted earthquake prevention measures in Yuxi and Honghe will significantly mitigate the potential risks posed by the Qujiang Fault.Notably,although the fault is within Yuxi,Honghe is likely to suffer the most severe damage.These findings emphasize the importance of considering rupture directivity and its influence on ground motion distribution when assessing seismic risk.
