The earthquake magnitude probability distribution is one of the underlying input data for certain earthquake analyses, such as probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Nowadays, the method proposed by McGuire and Arabas...The earthquake magnitude probability distribution is one of the underlying input data for certain earthquake analyses, such as probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Nowadays, the method proposed by McGuire and Arabasz (1990) is commonly used for obtaining the (simulated) earthquake magnitude probability distributions. However, based on the observed earthquake data in 5 regions (Taiwan, Japan, California, Turkey, and Greece), the model did not fit the observation well. Instead, all of the case studies show that using the newly proposed gamma distribution can improve the simulation significantly compared to the conventional method.展开更多
The correlation of the scaled energy,e = Es/ Mo, versus earthquake magnitude, Ms, is studied based on two models: (1) Model 1 based on the use of the time function of the average displacements, with a ω^-2 source ...The correlation of the scaled energy,e = Es/ Mo, versus earthquake magnitude, Ms, is studied based on two models: (1) Model 1 based on the use of the time function of the average displacements, with a ω^-2 source spectrum, across a fault plane; and (2) Model 2 based on the use of the time function of the average displacements, with a ω^-3 source spectrum, across a fault plane. For the second model, there are two cases: (a) As ζ= T, where r is the rise time and T the rupture time, lg(e) - -Ms; and (b) As ζ 〈〈 T, lg(e)- -(1/2)Ms. The second model leads to a negative value of e. This means that Model 2 cannot work for studying the present problem. The results obtained from Model 1 suggest that the source model is a factor, yet not a unique one, in controlling the correlation of e versus Ms.展开更多
By using orthogonal regression method, a systematic comparison is made between body wave magnitudes determined by Institute of Geophysics of China Earthquake Administration (IGCEA) and National Earthquake Information ...By using orthogonal regression method, a systematic comparison is made between body wave magnitudes determined by Institute of Geophysics of China Earthquake Administration (IGCEA) and National Earthquake Information Center of US Geological Survey (USGS/NEIC) on the basis of observation data from China and US seismograph networks between 1983 and 2004. The result of orthogonal regression shows no systematic error between body wave magnitude mb determined by IGCEA and mb (NEIC). Provided that mb (NEIC) is taken as the benchmark, body wave magnitude determined by IGCEA is greater by 0.2-0.1 than the magnitude determined by NEIC for M=3.5-4.5 earthquakes; for M=5.0-5.5 earthquakes, there is no difference; and for M greater than or equal 6.0 earthquakes, it is smaller by no more than 0.2. This is consistent with the result of comparison by IDC (International Data Center).展开更多
By linear regression and orthogonal regression methods, comparisons are made between different magnitudes (local magnitude ML, surface wave magnitudes Ms and MsT, long-period body wave magnitude mB and short-period b...By linear regression and orthogonal regression methods, comparisons are made between different magnitudes (local magnitude ML, surface wave magnitudes Ms and MsT, long-period body wave magnitude mB and short-period body wave magnitude mb) determined by Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, on the basis of observation data collected by China Seismograph Network between 1983 and 2004. Empirical relations between different magnitudes have been obtained. The result shows that: ① As different magnitude scales reflect radiated energy by seismic waves within different periods, earthquake magnitudes can be described more objectively by using different scales for earthquakes of different magnitudes. When the epicentral distance is less than 1000 km, local magnitude ME can be a preferable scale; In case M〈4.5, there is little difference between the magnitude scales; In case 4.5〈M〈6.0, mB〉Ms, i.e., Ms underestimates magnitudes of such events, therefore, mB can be a better choice; In case M〉6.0, Ms〉mB〉mb, both mB and mb underestimate the magnitudes, so Ms is a preferable scale for determining magnitudes of such events (6.0〈M〈8.5); In case M〉8.5, a saturation phenomenon appears in Ms, which cannot give an accurate reflection of the magnitudes of such large events; ② In China, when the epicentral distance is less than 1 000 km, there is almost no difference between ME and Ms, and thus there is no need to convert between the two magnitudes in practice; ③ Although Ms and Ms7 are both surface wave magnitudes, Ms is in general greater than Ms7 by 0.2~0.3 magnitude, because different instruments and calculation formulae are used; ④ mB is almost equal to mb for earthquakes around mB4.0, but mB is larger than mb for those of mB〉4.5, because the periods of seismic waves used for measuring mB and mb are different though the calculation formulae are the same.展开更多
A probability forecast method of earthquake magnitude, based on the earthquake frequency magnitude relation and the model of Bernoulli′s random independent trial, is applied to the earthquake risk assessmen...A probability forecast method of earthquake magnitude, based on the earthquake frequency magnitude relation and the model of Bernoulli′s random independent trial, is applied to the earthquake risk assessment of seismic zones in China's Mainland before A.D.2005 in the paper. The forecasting results indicate that the probabilities of earthquake occurrence with magnitude 5 in seismic zones before 2005 are estimated to be over 0.7 in common and 0.8 in most zones; and from 0.5 to 0.7 with M =6; the maximum probability of earthquake occurrence with magnitude 7 is estimated at 0.858, which is also expected in Shanxi seismic zone. In west China's Mainland, earthquakes with magnitude 6 are expected to occur in most seismic zones with high probability (over 0.9 in general) ; the relatively high probabilities of earthquake occurrence (more than 0.7) with magnitude 7 are expected in the seismic zones surrounding the Qinghai Tibet plateau and south Tianshan seismic zone. A discussion about the result confidence and the relationship between the estimated probability and the possible annual rate of earthquake occurrence is made in the last part of the paper.展开更多
The M_(S)6.9 Menyuan earthquake in Qinghai Province,west China is the largest earthquake by far in 2022.The earthquake occurs in a tectonically active region,with a background b-value of 0.87 within 100 km of the epic...The M_(S)6.9 Menyuan earthquake in Qinghai Province,west China is the largest earthquake by far in 2022.The earthquake occurs in a tectonically active region,with a background b-value of 0.87 within 100 km of the epicenter that we derived from the unified catalog produced by China Earthquake Networks Center since late 2008.Field surveys have revealed surface ruptures extending 22 km along strike,with a maximum ground displacement of 2.1 m.We construct a finite fault model with constraints from In SAR observations,which showed multiple fault segments during the Menyuan earthquake.The major slip asperity is confined within 10 km at depth,with the maximum slip of 3.5 m.Near real-time back-projection results of coseismic radiation indicate a northwest propagating rupture that lasted for~10 s.Intensity estimates from the back-projection results show up to a Mercalli scale of IX near the ruptured area,consistent with instrumental measurements and the observations from the field surveys.Aftershock locations(up to January 21,2022)exhibit two segments,extending to~20 km in depth.The largest one reaches M_(S)5.3,locating near the eastern end of the aftershock zone.Although the location and the approximate magnitude of the mainshock had been indicated by previous studies based on paleoearthquake records and seismic gap,as well as estimated stressing rate on faults,significant surfacebreaching rupture leads to severe damage of the high-speed railway system,which poses a challenge in accurately assessing earthquake hazards and risks,and thus demands further investigations of the rupture behaviors for crustal earthquakes.展开更多
The eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau is characterized by frequent earthquakes; however, research of paleo-earthquakes in the area has been limited^ owing to the alpine topography and strong erosion. Detailed inve...The eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau is characterized by frequent earthquakes; however, research of paleo-earthquakes in the area has been limited^ owing to the alpine topography and strong erosion. Detailed investigations of soft-sediment deformation(SSD) structures are valuable for understanding the trigger mechanisms, deformation processes, and the magnitudes of earthquakes that generate such structures, and help us to understand tectonic activity in the region. To assess tectonic activity during the late Quaternary, we studied a well-exposed sequence of Shawan lacustrine sediments, 7.0 m thick, near Lake Diexi in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River. Deformation is recorded by both ductile structures(load casts, flame structures,pseudonodules, ball-and-pillow structures, and liquefied convolute structures) and brittle structures(liquefied breccia, and microfaults). Taking into account the geodynamic setting of the area and its known tectonic activity, these SSD structures can be interpreted in terms of seismic shocks. The types and forms of the structures,the maximum liquefaction distances, and the thicknesses of the horizons with SSD structures in the Shawan section indicate that they record six strong earthquakes of magnitude 6-7 and one with magnitude >7. A recent study showed that the Songpinggou fault is the seismogenic structure of the 1933 Ms7.5 Diexi earthquake. The Shawan section is located close to the junction of the Songpinggou and Minjiang faults, and records seven earthquakes with magnitudes of ?7. We infer,therefore, that the SSD structures in the Shawan section document deglacial activity along the Songpinggou fault.展开更多
In this work a Support Vector Machine Regression(SVMR) algorithm is used to calculate local magnitude(MI) using only five seconds of signal after the P wave onset of one three component seismic station. This algor...In this work a Support Vector Machine Regression(SVMR) algorithm is used to calculate local magnitude(MI) using only five seconds of signal after the P wave onset of one three component seismic station. This algorithm was trained with 863 records of historical earthquakes, where the input regression parameters were an exponential function of the waveform envelope estimated by least squares and the maximum value of the observed waveform for each component in a single station. Ten-fold cross validation was applied for a normalized polynomial kernel obtaining the mean absolute error for different exponents and complexity parameters. The local magnitude(MI) could be estimated with 0.19 units of mean absolute error. The proposed algorithm is easy to implement in hardware and may be used directly after the field seismological sensor to generate fast decisions at seismological control centers, increasing the possibility of having an effective reaction.展开更多
Through the Three Gorges well network, we examine different coseismic changes in water temperature caused by local earthquakes since 2008, and offer a mechanistic explanation.The relations between the coseismic change...Through the Three Gorges well network, we examine different coseismic changes in water temperature caused by local earthquakes since 2008, and offer a mechanistic explanation.The relations between the coseismic changes in water temperature and the parameters of distant and local earthquakes are deduced.展开更多
The 2021 Madoi M7.4 Earthquake in Qinghai is a major earthquake that occurred in the Bajankara Block of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the past 30 years,which spatially filled the seismogenic gap in the eastern section of t...The 2021 Madoi M7.4 Earthquake in Qinghai is a major earthquake that occurred in the Bajankara Block of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the past 30 years,which spatially filled the seismogenic gap in the eastern section of the northern boundary of the block.Here we determined the values of M_(L),M_(S_BB),m_(B),M_(Wp),M_(WW),M_(dt),and M(GNSS)by abundant regional and global seismic and geodetic observations,which is 6.61,7.43,7.18,7.33,7.43,7.38,and 7.4,respectively.To compare the time efficiency and stability of different magnitude scales,we generated a real-time environment,to iteratively determine the magnitudes over elapsed times.Some methods such as m_(B),M_(S_BB),M_(Wp) gave considerable variations of as large as 0.5 units for the determined magnitudes with elapsed time,as more data were included.Others such as M_(WW) and M_(dt) were very stable with increasing data over time.The systematic calculations of various magnitude scales in this study quantitively evaluated the stability and accuracy of those methods,shading light on the adaptability and applicability of different magnitude scales.展开更多
文摘The earthquake magnitude probability distribution is one of the underlying input data for certain earthquake analyses, such as probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Nowadays, the method proposed by McGuire and Arabasz (1990) is commonly used for obtaining the (simulated) earthquake magnitude probability distributions. However, based on the observed earthquake data in 5 regions (Taiwan, Japan, California, Turkey, and Greece), the model did not fit the observation well. Instead, all of the case studies show that using the newly proposed gamma distribution can improve the simulation significantly compared to the conventional method.
基金sponsored by Academia Sinica and the National Science Council(under Grant No.NSC101-2119-M-001-01)
文摘The correlation of the scaled energy,e = Es/ Mo, versus earthquake magnitude, Ms, is studied based on two models: (1) Model 1 based on the use of the time function of the average displacements, with a ω^-2 source spectrum, across a fault plane; and (2) Model 2 based on the use of the time function of the average displacements, with a ω^-3 source spectrum, across a fault plane. For the second model, there are two cases: (a) As ζ= T, where r is the rise time and T the rupture time, lg(e) - -Ms; and (b) As ζ 〈〈 T, lg(e)- -(1/2)Ms. The second model leads to a negative value of e. This means that Model 2 cannot work for studying the present problem. The results obtained from Model 1 suggest that the source model is a factor, yet not a unique one, in controlling the correlation of e versus Ms.
基金Project ″Seismic Data Share″ from China Ministry of Science and Technology.
文摘By using orthogonal regression method, a systematic comparison is made between body wave magnitudes determined by Institute of Geophysics of China Earthquake Administration (IGCEA) and National Earthquake Information Center of US Geological Survey (USGS/NEIC) on the basis of observation data from China and US seismograph networks between 1983 and 2004. The result of orthogonal regression shows no systematic error between body wave magnitude mb determined by IGCEA and mb (NEIC). Provided that mb (NEIC) is taken as the benchmark, body wave magnitude determined by IGCEA is greater by 0.2-0.1 than the magnitude determined by NEIC for M=3.5-4.5 earthquakes; for M=5.0-5.5 earthquakes, there is no difference; and for M greater than or equal 6.0 earthquakes, it is smaller by no more than 0.2. This is consistent with the result of comparison by IDC (International Data Center).
基金Special Project on Earthquake from Ministry of Science and Technology of China.
文摘By linear regression and orthogonal regression methods, comparisons are made between different magnitudes (local magnitude ML, surface wave magnitudes Ms and MsT, long-period body wave magnitude mB and short-period body wave magnitude mb) determined by Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, on the basis of observation data collected by China Seismograph Network between 1983 and 2004. Empirical relations between different magnitudes have been obtained. The result shows that: ① As different magnitude scales reflect radiated energy by seismic waves within different periods, earthquake magnitudes can be described more objectively by using different scales for earthquakes of different magnitudes. When the epicentral distance is less than 1000 km, local magnitude ME can be a preferable scale; In case M〈4.5, there is little difference between the magnitude scales; In case 4.5〈M〈6.0, mB〉Ms, i.e., Ms underestimates magnitudes of such events, therefore, mB can be a better choice; In case M〉6.0, Ms〉mB〉mb, both mB and mb underestimate the magnitudes, so Ms is a preferable scale for determining magnitudes of such events (6.0〈M〈8.5); In case M〉8.5, a saturation phenomenon appears in Ms, which cannot give an accurate reflection of the magnitudes of such large events; ② In China, when the epicentral distance is less than 1 000 km, there is almost no difference between ME and Ms, and thus there is no need to convert between the two magnitudes in practice; ③ Although Ms and Ms7 are both surface wave magnitudes, Ms is in general greater than Ms7 by 0.2~0.3 magnitude, because different instruments and calculation formulae are used; ④ mB is almost equal to mb for earthquakes around mB4.0, but mB is larger than mb for those of mB〉4.5, because the periods of seismic waves used for measuring mB and mb are different though the calculation formulae are the same.
文摘A probability forecast method of earthquake magnitude, based on the earthquake frequency magnitude relation and the model of Bernoulli′s random independent trial, is applied to the earthquake risk assessment of seismic zones in China's Mainland before A.D.2005 in the paper. The forecasting results indicate that the probabilities of earthquake occurrence with magnitude 5 in seismic zones before 2005 are estimated to be over 0.7 in common and 0.8 in most zones; and from 0.5 to 0.7 with M =6; the maximum probability of earthquake occurrence with magnitude 7 is estimated at 0.858, which is also expected in Shanxi seismic zone. In west China's Mainland, earthquakes with magnitude 6 are expected to occur in most seismic zones with high probability (over 0.9 in general) ; the relatively high probabilities of earthquake occurrence (more than 0.7) with magnitude 7 are expected in the seismic zones surrounding the Qinghai Tibet plateau and south Tianshan seismic zone. A discussion about the result confidence and the relationship between the estimated probability and the possible annual rate of earthquake occurrence is made in the last part of the paper.
基金supported by China Earthquake Sciences Experiment Site(2018CSES0102)China Earthquake Administration Science for Earthquake Resilience(XH20072)+2 种基金National Key R&D Program of China(No.2018YFC0603500)atural Science Foundation of China(41874062 and 41922025)Youth Science and Technology Fund Project of CENC。
文摘The M_(S)6.9 Menyuan earthquake in Qinghai Province,west China is the largest earthquake by far in 2022.The earthquake occurs in a tectonically active region,with a background b-value of 0.87 within 100 km of the epicenter that we derived from the unified catalog produced by China Earthquake Networks Center since late 2008.Field surveys have revealed surface ruptures extending 22 km along strike,with a maximum ground displacement of 2.1 m.We construct a finite fault model with constraints from In SAR observations,which showed multiple fault segments during the Menyuan earthquake.The major slip asperity is confined within 10 km at depth,with the maximum slip of 3.5 m.Near real-time back-projection results of coseismic radiation indicate a northwest propagating rupture that lasted for~10 s.Intensity estimates from the back-projection results show up to a Mercalli scale of IX near the ruptured area,consistent with instrumental measurements and the observations from the field surveys.Aftershock locations(up to January 21,2022)exhibit two segments,extending to~20 km in depth.The largest one reaches M_(S)5.3,locating near the eastern end of the aftershock zone.Although the location and the approximate magnitude of the mainshock had been indicated by previous studies based on paleoearthquake records and seismic gap,as well as estimated stressing rate on faults,significant surfacebreaching rupture leads to severe damage of the high-speed railway system,which poses a challenge in accurately assessing earthquake hazards and risks,and thus demands further investigations of the rupture behaviors for crustal earthquakes.
基金the joint support by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41807298,41672211,41572346)the Special Project of Fundamental Scientific Research of the Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration(IGCEA1713)
文摘The eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau is characterized by frequent earthquakes; however, research of paleo-earthquakes in the area has been limited^ owing to the alpine topography and strong erosion. Detailed investigations of soft-sediment deformation(SSD) structures are valuable for understanding the trigger mechanisms, deformation processes, and the magnitudes of earthquakes that generate such structures, and help us to understand tectonic activity in the region. To assess tectonic activity during the late Quaternary, we studied a well-exposed sequence of Shawan lacustrine sediments, 7.0 m thick, near Lake Diexi in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River. Deformation is recorded by both ductile structures(load casts, flame structures,pseudonodules, ball-and-pillow structures, and liquefied convolute structures) and brittle structures(liquefied breccia, and microfaults). Taking into account the geodynamic setting of the area and its known tectonic activity, these SSD structures can be interpreted in terms of seismic shocks. The types and forms of the structures,the maximum liquefaction distances, and the thicknesses of the horizons with SSD structures in the Shawan section indicate that they record six strong earthquakes of magnitude 6-7 and one with magnitude >7. A recent study showed that the Songpinggou fault is the seismogenic structure of the 1933 Ms7.5 Diexi earthquake. The Shawan section is located close to the junction of the Songpinggou and Minjiang faults, and records seven earthquakes with magnitudes of ?7. We infer,therefore, that the SSD structures in the Shawan section document deglacial activity along the Songpinggou fault.
文摘In this work a Support Vector Machine Regression(SVMR) algorithm is used to calculate local magnitude(MI) using only five seconds of signal after the P wave onset of one three component seismic station. This algorithm was trained with 863 records of historical earthquakes, where the input regression parameters were an exponential function of the waveform envelope estimated by least squares and the maximum value of the observed waveform for each component in a single station. Ten-fold cross validation was applied for a normalized polynomial kernel obtaining the mean absolute error for different exponents and complexity parameters. The local magnitude(MI) could be estimated with 0.19 units of mean absolute error. The proposed algorithm is easy to implement in hardware and may be used directly after the field seismological sensor to generate fast decisions at seismological control centers, increasing the possibility of having an effective reaction.
基金supported by the China Three Gorges Corporation Research Fund (SXSN/3354)
文摘Through the Three Gorges well network, we examine different coseismic changes in water temperature caused by local earthquakes since 2008, and offer a mechanistic explanation.The relations between the coseismic changes in water temperature and the parameters of distant and local earthquakes are deduced.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2018YFC0603500)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41874062 and 41922025)。
文摘The 2021 Madoi M7.4 Earthquake in Qinghai is a major earthquake that occurred in the Bajankara Block of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the past 30 years,which spatially filled the seismogenic gap in the eastern section of the northern boundary of the block.Here we determined the values of M_(L),M_(S_BB),m_(B),M_(Wp),M_(WW),M_(dt),and M(GNSS)by abundant regional and global seismic and geodetic observations,which is 6.61,7.43,7.18,7.33,7.43,7.38,and 7.4,respectively.To compare the time efficiency and stability of different magnitude scales,we generated a real-time environment,to iteratively determine the magnitudes over elapsed times.Some methods such as m_(B),M_(S_BB),M_(Wp) gave considerable variations of as large as 0.5 units for the determined magnitudes with elapsed time,as more data were included.Others such as M_(WW) and M_(dt) were very stable with increasing data over time.The systematic calculations of various magnitude scales in this study quantitively evaluated the stability and accuracy of those methods,shading light on the adaptability and applicability of different magnitude scales.