Earthquake Magnitude Probability and Gamma Distribution

The earthquake magnitude probability distribution is one of the underlying input data for certain earthquake analyses, such as probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Nowadays, the method proposed by McGuire and Arabasz (1990) is commonly used for obtaining the (simulated) earthquake magnitude probability distributions. However, based on the observed earthquake data in 5 regions (Taiwan, Japan, California, Turkey, and Greece), the model did not fit the observation well. Instead, all of the case studies show that using the newly proposed gamma distribution can improve the simulation significantly compared to the conventional method.

A theoretical study of correlation between scaled energy and earthquake magnitude based on two source displacement models

The correlation of the scaled energy,e = Es/ Mo, versus earthquake magnitude, Ms, is studied based on two models： （1） Model 1 based on the use of the time function of the average displacements, with a ω^-2 source spectrum, across a fault plane; and （2） Model 2 based on the use of the time function of the average displacements, with a ω^-3 source spectrum, across a fault plane. For the second model, there are two cases： （a） As ζ= T, where r is the rise time and T the rupture time, lg（e） - -Ms; and （b） As ζ 〈〈 T, lg（e）- -（1/2）Ms. The second model leads to a negative value of e. This means that Model 2 cannot work for studying the present problem. The results obtained from Model 1 suggest that the source model is a factor, yet not a unique one, in controlling the correlation of e versus Ms.

Comparison between earthquake magnitudes determined by China seismograph network and US seismograph networks (I): Body wave magnitude

By using orthogonal regression method, a systematic comparison is made between body wave magnitudes determined by Institute of Geophysics of China Earthquake Administration (IGCEA) and National Earthquake Information Center of US Geological Survey (USGS/NEIC) on the basis of observation data from China and US seismograph networks between 1983 and 2004. The result of orthogonal regression shows no systematic error between body wave magnitude mb determined by IGCEA and mb (NEIC). Provided that mb (NEIC) is taken as the benchmark, body wave magnitude determined by IGCEA is greater by 0.2-0.1 than the magnitude determined by NEIC for M=3.5-4.5 earthquakes; for M=5.0-5.5 earthquakes, there is no difference; and for M greater than or equal 6.0 earthquakes, it is smaller by no more than 0.2. This is consistent with the result of comparison by IDC (International Data Center).

Comparison between different earthquake magnitudes determined by China Seismo-graph Network

By linear regression and orthogonal regression methods, comparisons are made between different magnitudes （local magnitude ML, surface wave magnitudes Ms and MsT, long-period body wave magnitude mB and short-period body wave magnitude mb） determined by Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, on the basis of observation data collected by China Seismograph Network between 1983 and 2004. Empirical relations between different magnitudes have been obtained. The result shows that： ① As different magnitude scales reflect radiated energy by seismic waves within different periods, earthquake magnitudes can be described more objectively by using different scales for earthquakes of different magnitudes. When the epicentral distance is less than 1000 km, local magnitude ME can be a preferable scale; In case M〈4.5, there is little difference between the magnitude scales; In case 4.5〈M〈6.0, mB〉Ms, i.e., Ms underestimates magnitudes of such events, therefore, mB can be a better choice; In case M〉6.0, Ms〉mB〉mb, both mB and mb underestimate the magnitudes, so Ms is a preferable scale for determining magnitudes of such events （6.0〈M〈8.5）; In case M〉8.5, a saturation phenomenon appears in Ms, which cannot give an accurate reflection of the magnitudes of such large events; ② In China, when the epicentral distance is less than 1 000 km, there is almost no difference between ME and Ms, and thus there is no need to convert between the two magnitudes in practice; ③ Although Ms and Ms7 are both surface wave magnitudes, Ms is in general greater than Ms7 by 0.2～0.3 magnitude, because different instruments and calculation formulae are used; ④ mB is almost equal to mb for earthquakes around mB4.0, but mB is larger than mb for those of mB〉4.5, because the periods of seismic waves used for measuring mB and mb are different though the calculation formulae are the same.

On Estimating Magnitude of a Maximum Sequent Earthquake by Viscoelastic Coulomb Stress Change and a Discussion of the Relationship between the M_S7.3 Earthquakes in Yutian 2008 and 2014

On the basis of the previous studies of the layered crustal model in the Yutian area,combined with the field GPS continuous observation data,we roughly estimate the viscous coefficient of each layer. With the viscoelastic horizontal layer model,we calculate the viscoelastic co-seismic Coulomb stress change caused by the Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquakes 2008 and 2014 respectively. Based on the Coulomb stress change,using the calculation method of "direct "aftershock frequency,we come up with the theoretical earthquake frequency directly related to the mainshock and the co-seismic Coulomb stress change in the study area. Then we put forward a method,based on the comparison of theoretical and actual earthquake frequency or the comparison between theoretical and practical earthquake frequency-distance decay curve fitting residuals,to estimate the magnitude of a maximum sequent earthquake,directly related to the mainshock co-seismic Coulomb stress change. Results calculated by different methods show that the maximum follow-up earthquake magnitude caused by the coseismic Coulomb stress change lies from M_S7. 2 to M_S7. 5 following Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquake in 2008; but that of the 2014 Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquake is M_S6. 3. The former is very close to the Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquake in 2014.Because of the same magnitude,relatively close spatial distance,short time interval,the same region of the external force,the strong correlation between two seismic tectonic and a clear stress interaction,we thus consider that the two Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquakes in 2008 and 2014 constitute a pair of generalized double shock type earthquake. This is consistent with the sequence type characteristic of past "double shock"earthquakes in the region. In this paper,the influence of the magnitude lower limit and the b-value in the relationship of G-R on the results is discussed. As a result,when the viscoelastic coseismic Coulomb stress variation is determined,the lower limit of magnitude has little effect on the maximum sequent earthquake magnitude estimation,but b-value of G-R has a greater impact on the results.

Probability forecast of earthquake magnitude in Chinese mainland before A．D． 2005

A probability forecast method of earthquake magnitude, based on the earthquake frequency magnitude relation and the model of Bernoulli′s random independent trial, is applied to the earthquake risk assessment of seismic zones in China's Mainland before A.D.2005 in the paper. The forecasting results indicate that the probabilities of earthquake occurrence with magnitude 5 in seismic zones before 2005 are estimated to be over 0.7 in common and 0.8 in most zones; and from 0.5 to 0.7 with M =6; the maximum probability of earthquake occurrence with magnitude 7 is estimated at 0.858, which is also expected in Shanxi seismic zone. In west China's Mainland, earthquakes with magnitude 6 are expected to occur in most seismic zones with high probability (over 0.9 in general) ; the relatively high probabilities of earthquake occurrence (more than 0.7) with magnitude 7 are expected in the seismic zones surrounding the Qinghai Tibet plateau and south Tianshan seismic zone. A discussion about the result confidence and the relationship between the estimated probability and the possible annual rate of earthquake occurrence is made in the last part of the paper.

Seismic Risk Assessment and Maximum Magnitudes of Potential Earthquakes on Active Faults near Lanzhou City

The Zhuanglang river and Baiyin Baiyangshu river faults are late Quaternary faults near Lanzhou city, which pose a threat to the safety of the city. However, the cause of medium- strong earthquakes along the fault is rather complicated and even uncertain. It is important for us how to assess the magnitudes of maximum potential earthquakes and the seismic risk of the faults. The authors make reference to the method that Wen Xueze, et ai. （2007） developed to assess the magnitudes of maximum potential earthquakes in sub-areas of moderately and weakly active faults in the eastern Chinese Mainland, and brought forward an empirical relationship between the maximum magnitudes Mmax and the at/b values of the sub-areas＇ frequency- magnitude relationships in the Lanzhou area. By using this empirical relationship, the authors have estimated the upper-limits Mu of the Zhuanglang river and Baiyin Baiyangshu river active faults near Lanzhou city as Ms6.9 and 6.3, respectively. In addition, they have assessed the average interval recurrence time and the probabilities of destructive earthquakes on the faults.

Last Deglacial Soft-Sediment Deformation at Shawan on the Eastern Tibetan Plateau and Implications for Deformation Processes and Seismic Magnitudes

The eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau is characterized by frequent earthquakes; however, research of paleo-earthquakes in the area has been limited^ owing to the alpine topography and strong erosion. Detailed investigations of soft-sediment deformation(SSD) structures are valuable for understanding the trigger mechanisms, deformation processes, and the magnitudes of earthquakes that generate such structures, and help us to understand tectonic activity in the region. To assess tectonic activity during the late Quaternary, we studied a well-exposed sequence of Shawan lacustrine sediments, 7.0 m thick, near Lake Diexi in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River. Deformation is recorded by both ductile structures(load casts, flame structures,pseudonodules, ball-and-pillow structures, and liquefied convolute structures) and brittle structures(liquefied breccia, and microfaults). Taking into account the geodynamic setting of the area and its known tectonic activity, these SSD structures can be interpreted in terms of seismic shocks. The types and forms of the structures,the maximum liquefaction distances, and the thicknesses of the horizons with SSD structures in the Shawan section indicate that they record six strong earthquakes of magnitude 6-7 and one with magnitude >7. A recent study showed that the Songpinggou fault is the seismogenic structure of the 1933 Ms7.5 Diexi earthquake. The Shawan section is located close to the junction of the Songpinggou and Minjiang faults, and records seven earthquakes with magnitudes of ?7. We infer,therefore, that the SSD structures in the Shawan section document deglacial activity along the Songpinggou fault.

Rapid report of the 8 January 2022 M_(S)6.9 Menyuan earthquake,Qinghai,China

The M_(S)6.9 Menyuan earthquake in Qinghai Province,west China is the largest earthquake by far in 2022.The earthquake occurs in a tectonically active region,with a background b-value of 0.87 within 100 km of the epicenter that we derived from the unified catalog produced by China Earthquake Networks Center since late 2008.Field surveys have revealed surface ruptures extending 22 km along strike,with a maximum ground displacement of 2.1 m.We construct a finite fault model with constraints from In SAR observations,which showed multiple fault segments during the Menyuan earthquake.The major slip asperity is confined within 10 km at depth,with the maximum slip of 3.5 m.Near real-time back-projection results of coseismic radiation indicate a northwest propagating rupture that lasted for~10 s.Intensity estimates from the back-projection results show up to a Mercalli scale of IX near the ruptured area,consistent with instrumental measurements and the observations from the field surveys.Aftershock locations(up to January 21,2022)exhibit two segments,extending to~20 km in depth.The largest one reaches M_(S)5.3,locating near the eastern end of the aftershock zone.Although the location and the approximate magnitude of the mainshock had been indicated by previous studies based on paleoearthquake records and seismic gap,as well as estimated stressing rate on faults,significant surfacebreaching rupture leads to severe damage of the high-speed railway system,which poses a challenge in accurately assessing earthquake hazards and risks,and thus demands further investigations of the rupture behaviors for crustal earthquakes.

Determination of reservoir induced earthquake using support vector machine and gaussian process regression

The prediction of magnitude （M） of reservoir induced earthquake is an important task in earthquake engineering. In this article, we employ a Support Vector Machine （SVM） and Gaussian Process Regression （GPR） for prediction of reservoir induced earthquake M based on reservoir parameters. Comprehensive parameter （E） and maximum reservoir depth] （H） are considered as inputs to the SVM and GPR. We give an equation for determination oil reservoir induced earthquake M. The developed SVM and GPR have been compared with] the Artificial Neural Network （ANN） method. The results show that the developed SVM and] GPR are efficient tools for prediction of reservoir induced earthquake M. /

Fast magnitude determination using a single seismological station record implementing machine learning techniques

In this work a Support Vector Machine Regression（SVMR） algorithm is used to calculate local magnitude（MI） using only five seconds of signal after the P wave onset of one three component seismic station. This algorithm was trained with 863 records of historical earthquakes, where the input regression parameters were an exponential function of the waveform envelope estimated by least squares and the maximum value of the observed waveform for each component in a single station. Ten-fold cross validation was applied for a normalized polynomial kernel obtaining the mean absolute error for different exponents and complexity parameters. The local magnitude（MI） could be estimated with 0.19 units of mean absolute error. The proposed algorithm is easy to implement in hardware and may be used directly after the field seismological sensor to generate fast decisions at seismological control centers, increasing the possibility of having an effective reaction.

Study on the Method of Short-Term Synthetic Earthquake Prediction in the North China Region

Based on the extraction and calculation of the short-term seismic precursory information magnitude from the 114 major precursory observations in the North China region, and together with consideration of factors such as geological structure, seismicity, crustal thickness, and in particular, the current geodynamics of the region, the authors studied the time-space evolution characteristics of the short-term earthquake precursory information magnitude and its relationship with earthquakes and proposed the index and method for the short-term synthetic prediction of earthquakes with M S≥5.0 in the North China region. The inspection through R-value shows that the method is effective to a certain extent for earthquake prediction.

Current Earthquake Early Warning Technology and Its Development in China

Earthquake Early Warning ( EEW) has come to attention,as earthquake prediction is still unreliable. The paper comprehensively illustrates the research status and important issues of EEW from the aspects of concept,composition and method. By analyzing the status of EEW in China,we find that the essential requirements have been met for building earthquake early warning systems in the country in terms of government and social needs, network construction and basic research. The technical difficulties and non-technical challenges in implementing EEW in China are evaluated, and some suggestions are proposed regarding the relevant legal measures,public education and protection against earthquake disasters. so as to bring into full play the role of the EEW system in earthquake disaster prevention and reduction.

Effect of dry density on the liquefaction behaviour of Quaternary silt

Quaternary silt is widely distributed in China and easily liquefies during earthquakes. To identify the influence of the dry density on the liquefaction behaviour of Quaternary silt, 40 cyclic triaxial liquefaction tests were performed on loose silt(dry density rd=1.460 g/cm^3) and dense silt(rd=1.586 g/cm^3) under different cyclic stress ratios(CSRs) to obtain liquefaction assessment criteria, determine the liquefaction resistance, improve the excess pore water pressure(EPWP) growth model and clarify the relationship between the shear modulus and damping ratio. The results indicate that the initial liquefaction assessment criteria for the loose and dense silts are a double-amplitude axial strain of 5% and an EPWP ratio of 1. The increase in the anti-liquefaction ability for the dense silt is more significant under lower confining pressures. The CSR of loose silt falls well within the results of the sandy silt and Fraser River silt, and the dense silt exhibits a higher liquefaction resistance than the sand-silt mixture. The relationships between the CSR and loading cycles were obtained at a failure strain of 1%. The EPWP development in the dense and loose silts complies with the "fast-stable" and "fast-gentle-sharp" growth modes, respectively. The power function model can effectively describe the EPWP growth characteristics of the dense silt. Finally, based on the liquefaction behaviour of silt, a suggestion for reinforcing silt slopes or foundations is proposed.

Analysis of coseismic effect on temperature in the Three Gorges well network

Through the Three Gorges well network, we examine different coseismic changes in water temperature caused by local earthquakes since 2008, and offer a mechanistic explanation.The relations between the coseismic changes in water temperature and the parameters of distant and local earthquakes are deduced.

Determination and Comparison of M_(L),M_(S_BB),m_(B),M_(Wp),M_(WW),M_(dt),and M(GNSS)for the 22 May 2021 M7.4 Madoi,Qianghai,China Earthquake

The 2021 Madoi M7.4 Earthquake in Qinghai is a major earthquake that occurred in the Bajankara Block of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the past 30 years,which spatially filled the seismogenic gap in the eastern section of the northern boundary of the block.Here we determined the values of M_(L),M_(S_BB),m_(B),M_(Wp),M_(WW),M_(dt),and M(GNSS)by abundant regional and global seismic and geodetic observations,which is 6.61,7.43,7.18,7.33,7.43,7.38,and 7.4,respectively.To compare the time efficiency and stability of different magnitude scales,we generated a real-time environment,to iteratively determine the magnitudes over elapsed times.Some methods such as m_(B),M_(S_BB),M_(Wp) gave considerable variations of as large as 0.5 units for the determined magnitudes with elapsed time,as more data were included.Others such as M_(WW) and M_(dt) were very stable with increasing data over time.The systematic calculations of various magnitude scales in this study quantitively evaluated the stability and accuracy of those methods,shading light on the adaptability and applicability of different magnitude scales.