Certainty factors of earthquake precursory anomaly evidences CF(E)

In this paper, we propose the principle, methods and calculating formulas for determining the certainty factors of earthquake precursory anomaly evidences CF (E). Based on the guidebooks for earthquake prediction, we give the methods of determining the CF values of 22 evidences (including seismic gap, belt, b-value, c-value, velocity ratio, strengthen of anomalous activities, quiet of anomalous activities, seismic window, earthquake swarm,earthquake sequence, coda wave, initial motion of P wave, stress drop, geoelectricity, geomagnetism, stress,ground tilt, ground water level, radon and hydrochemistry, gravity, space environment and macroscopic anomalies), and show three examples. The purposes are to use the Expert System for Earthquake Prediction (ESEP) further.

Study on Precursory Features of the Lop M_S6. 0 Earthquake Based on GPS Continuous Observation Data and Mobile Gravity Data

Through calculating and analyzing of GPS continuous observation data and mobile gravity data,the study results from the data are as follows.( 1) The different movement rate of the fault ends provides conditions for stress accumulation.( 2) The high value zone of gravity anomaly appeared in the monitoring area before the earthquake,and gravity variation contour lines are parallel to the strike of fault; and the process of enhancingweakening-enhancing appeared in the regional gravity field before earthquake.

Seismic Sequence Characteristics and Precursory Anomalies of the M_S6.3 and M_S6.4 Da Qaidam Earthquakes in 2008～2009

In this paper,the seismogenic structures of the Da Qaidam strong earthquakes are preliminarily discussed by using the regional seismotectonic data and focal mechanism solutions. Analysis is done on the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the two strong earthquake sequences in Da Qaidam in combination with the sequence distribution characteristics of the M6. 6 earthquake of 2003 and the five strong earthquakes of about M5. 0 in 2004 in Delingha. At the same time,the regional characteristics of the historical seismic activity are also investigated. Preliminary analysis is done on the influence of the two M8. 0 earthquakes in the past 10 years on this region. Precursory anomalies and their characteristics are discussed in combination with the analysis of the precursor observation data of Qinghai Province.

Contaminated Effect of Geomagnetic Storms on Pre-Seismic Atmospheric and Ionospheric Anomalies during Imphal Earthquake

Study of seismo-ionospheric coupling mechanism demands the quiet geomagnetic condition to eliminate any kind of contamination in the lower atmospheric and ionospheric parameters. In this manuscript, we present the effect of back to back two geomagnetic storms before a strong earthquake happened in Imphal, India on January 4, 2016 (M = 6.7). We studied the lower ionospheric irregularities for the duration of 31 days by computing the nighttime fluctuations in Very Low Frequency (VLF) radio signal received transmitter JJI (22.2 kHz) in Japan at Ionospheric and Earthquake Research Centre & Optical Observatory (IERCOO), Sitapur, India. We also studied the presence of Atmospheric Gravity Wave (AGW) in nighttime VLF signal in lower ionospheric heights and the same computed that from SABER/TIMED satellite. Two geomagnetic storms occurred on December 21, and 31, 2015. By the conventional analysis, we found that there is a significant decrease in nighttime trend and an increase in nighttime fluctuations around 15 days before the earthquake and just on the first storm and thus the pre-seismic effects on VLF signal gets contaminated due to the presence of storms. The wave-like structure in VLF fluctuations shows significant increase in intensity by using Fourier and Wavelet analysis before the earthquake. By analysis of SABER data, we found significant enhancement in AGW around 10 days before the earthquake. As the wavelike structures are coming from neutral acoustics reasons from pressure or temperature variations, this paper exhibits a significant example of contamination in ionospheric parameters due to geomagnetic storm where the acoustics parameters remain un-contaminated.

The Characteristics of Earthquake Swarms in and around Jiangsu Province

This paper systematically analyzed 36 earthquake swarms in and around Jiangsu Province, summarized their characteristics and discussed the relationship between earthquske swarms and subsequent strong earthquakes. It also analyzed the judgment criteria for precursory earthquake swarms. Earthquake swarms in Jiangsu Province are concentrated in several areas. Most of them were of magnitude ML2.0～3.9. For most earthquake swarms, the number of earthquakes was less than 30. Time duration for about 55% of earthquake swarms was less than 15 days. The biggest magnitude of one earthquake swarm was not proportional to the number of earthquakes and time duration. There are 78% of earthquake swarms corresponded to the forthcoming earthquakes of M>4.6 in which there're 57% occured in one year, This shows a medium-and short-term criterion. Distance between earthquake swarm and future earthquake was distributed dispersedly. There were no earthquakes occurring in the same location as earthquake swarms. There was no good correlation between the magnitude and the corresponding rate of future earthquakes and the intensity of earthquake swarms. There was also no good correlation between the number of earthquakes in an earthquake swarm and the corresponding rate. The study also shows that it's better to use U-p or whole-combination to determine the type of earthquake swarm.

Study on the Method of Short-Term Synthetic Earthquake Prediction in the North China Region

Based on the extraction and calculation of the short-term seismic precursory information magnitude from the 114 major precursory observations in the North China region, and together with consideration of factors such as geological structure, seismicity, crustal thickness, and in particular, the current geodynamics of the region, the authors studied the time-space evolution characteristics of the short-term earthquake precursory information magnitude and its relationship with earthquakes and proposed the index and method for the short-term synthetic prediction of earthquakes with M S≥5.0 in the North China region. The inspection through R-value shows that the method is effective to a certain extent for earthquake prediction.

Analyses on normal background characteristics about deformation observation data on the basis of wavelet transform method

Wavelet transform method is applied to measure time-frequency distribution characteristics of digital deformation data and noise. Based on the characteristics of primary modulus and stochastic white noise discrimination factor of wavelet decomposition, we analyze the variation rule of normal background and noise data from Shandong digital deformation observation data. The research results indicate that: a) 1/4 daily wave, semi-diurnal tide wave, daily wave and half lunar wave and so on quasi-periodic signal exist in the detail decomposing signal of wavelet when scale are equal to 2, 3 and 4; b) The amplitude of detail decomposing signal is the biggest when scale is equal to 3; c) The detail decomposing signal contains mainly noise corresponding to scale 1 and 5, respectively; d) We may trace the abnormal precursory which is related to earthquake by analyzing non-earthquake wavelet decomposing signal whose scale is specified from digital deformation observation data.