Earthquake recurrence on whole active fault zones and its relation to that on individual fault-segments

Based on the earthquake data of 11 active intraplate fault zones of the Chinese mainland, we have studied the earthquake recurrence behaviors on entire active fault zones and their relations to those on individual fault-segments. The results show that the earthquake recurrence on entire active fault zones, each of them is made up of multiple segments, displays three types of behavior, i.e., the clustering behavior, the random behavior, and the poor quasi-periodic behavior. The major one is the sparse clustering behavior, its recurrence process often exhibits that clusters (active periods) and gaps (quiescent periods) occur alternatively in varying degrees. The recurrence intervals within and between clusters, the durations of individual clusters, the earthquake number and strength of every cluster are all variable. The recurrence process is non-linear, there is neither the strength-time dependence nor the time-strength dependence. However, the earthquake recurrence processes on individual fault-segments are much more simple, and mainly display either the quasi-periodic or the time-predictable behaviors. Also, this study further discovers that the temporal clustering in earthquake recurrence process on entire fault zones is mainly caused by the rupture 'contagion' on different fault-segments within relatively short periods of time. Along active fault zones, the degree and orientation of rupture 'contagion' may vary with different seismic cycles, and the 'contagion' seems to be able to jump over unbroken 'gaps' on the fault zones.

Basic Characteristics of Active Structures in Western Sichuan and Its Vicinity and Strong Earthquake Recurrence Model

Western Sichuan and its vicinity are located in the juncture of three big active blocks, namely, the Chuandian （Sichuan and Yunnan）, the Bayan Har and the South China blocks, on the eastern margin of the Qinghai-Xizang（Tibet） Plateau. Many groups of active faults that are capable of generating earthquakes are developed there. Because there exist lateral secondary active faults, the Chuandian block can be further divided into the central Yumlan and northwestern Sichuan sub-blocks; while the Longmenshan sub-block can be divided on the east end of the Bayan Har block. Joint exploration of deep crustal structure shows that there exist low-velocity and high-conductivity layers in the crust of the Chuandian and Bayan Har blocks, which are one of the important factors that make the upper crust prone to earthquake. The results of geological study and modern GPS observation show that blocks of different orders all have SE- or SSE-trending sliding, clockwise rotation and upwelling movement; but there are some differences in amplitude. This paper has also given the geological or GPS slip rates of main active fault zones and discussed the main scientific problems still existing now.

Trade space for time for inspecting an earthquake cycle by modern seismological observation: The central-southern part of the Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block

The central-southern part of the eastern border of the Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block provides the research strategy of ‘trade space for time' with an interesting fault system, where the segments have similar focal mechanisms and cover almost continuous spectra of elapse rates. We experiment to study the seismological characteristics of different segments with different elapse rates. We employed the de-clustered earthquake catalog for the calculation of b values for each segment. The analysis revealed that different segments have similar b values,which implies that, although different segments have different periods of earthquake recurrence, the 'natural time' for the whole fault system elapses with a homogeneous pace. We extended the earthquake potential score(EPS)for nowcasting earthquakes to a quasi-EPS(q EPS). It is found that q EPS increases with the increase of elapse rates,albeit for those fault segments whose elapse rates have exceeded 1, q EPS may better reflect the seismic hazard.

Recurrence Behaviors of Earthquakes along the Kefallinia Transform Fault, Ionian Sea, Greece

We examined the whole strong earthquake recurrence behaviors of two fault zones along the Kefallinia Transform, Ionian Sea, Greece, using seismological data and statistical methods. Our data include 29 events with M 〉 5.5 for the period 1636 - 2003. We found different recurrence behaviors for the Kefallinia Fault Zone （clustering and time-predictable recurrence behaviors） and the Letkada Fault Zone （near random and non-slip-predictable or non-time-predictable recurrence nature）. The different modes may be attributed to： （a） segment interaction along-strike （Kefallinia） by static triggering and （b） the influence of fault systems to the north and east on the recurrence on Lefkada. Within the active periods, earthquake recurrence intervals are distributed in a more dispersed fashion, and can be fitted well by a Weibull distribution. In contrast, the distribution of the quiet periods is relatively less dispersed and difficult to describe by suitable probability functions.

Study on the Recurrence Probability of Strong Earthquakes of Faults

Based on the physical model of Brownian passage time,the probabilities of recurrence of strong earthquakes on the major active faults in China are calculated in different predictive time spans,based mainly on the analysis of the earthquake preparation process before a strong earthquake occurs. Furthermore,the seismic risks on active faults are studied. The results show that the earthquake probabilities on the Xianshuihe fault,the Altyn Tagh fault,the east Kunlun fault and Xiaojiang fault are significantly greater than other faults in the Chinese mainland,which indicates that the level of stress accumulation on these faults are higher than on other faults. Therefore,these faults may have a seismic risk for strong earthquake in future.

Kinematic features of the seismogenic fault of the Tangshan earthquake and the recurrence period of large earthquakes

By the inversion method of uneven slippage of faults in the depths(Liu et al ., 1995) and using the crustal deformation data of six phases, the movement states of seismic fault of the Tangshan earthquake in five time periods before, during and after that earthquake are computed. The result of computation has revealed the movement process of seismic fault, during which the fault moved at an increasing rate before the quake, slipped suddenly during the quake, and became relaxed, adjusted and stabilized gradually after the quake. Moreover, the recurrence period of earthquakes in Tangshan is computed using the relation that the slippage of seismic fault bears with strain energy.

Earthquake probabilities and magnitude distribution (M≥6.7) along the Haiyuan fault, northwestern China

In recent years, some researchers have studied the paleoearthquake along the Haiyuan fault and revealed a lot of paleoearthquake events. All available information allows more reliable analysis of earthquake recurrence interval and earthquake rupture patterns along the Haiyuan fault. Based on this paleoseismological information, the recur- rence probability and magnitude distribution for M≥6.7 earthquakes in future 100 years along the Haiyuan fault can be obtained through weighted computation by using Poisson and Brownian passage time models and consid- ering different rupture patterns. The result shows that the recurrence probability of MS≥6.7 earthquakes is about 0.035 in future 100 years along the Haiyuan fault.

Seismic characteristics near the epicenter of the 1303 Hongtong M=8 earthquake, Shanxi Province and its implication

In this paper, we calculated the seismic pattern of instrumental recorded small and moderate earthquakes near the epicenter of the 1303 Hongtong M=8 earthquake, Shanxi Province. According to the spatial distribution of small and moderate earthquakes, 6 seismic dense zones are delineated. Temporal distribution of ML2 earthquakes since 1970 in each seismic dense zone has been analyzed. Based on temporal distribution characteristics and historical earthquake activity, three types of seismicities are proposed. The relationship between seismic types and crustal medium is analyzed. The mechanism of three types is discussed. Finity of strong earthquake recurrence is pro-posed. Seismic hazard in mid-long term and diversity of earthquake disaster in Shanxi seismic belt are discussed.

R/S analysis of earthquake time interval

The R/S analysis method of time series was suggested by Hurst in 1965, then it was used tostudy the fractional Brownian motion(FBM) and the self--affinity of natural phenomena (MandeLbrot and Wallis, 1969a 3 Feder, 1988). In this paper, we use R/S analysis method to study thechsnges of Hurst exponent H of time interval sequences Of earthquakes with time variations for 5r%ions as follows: Wuqia (38'--41'N, 73'- 77 'E, M.>3' 5) I Tangshan (38'-41'N,116. 5'-- 119. 5'E, ML 2 3); Longling (23'- 26'N, 97'-- 100'E, ML > 3); Songpan (31'- 34'N,102. 5'- 105. 5'E, ML;3); China and its vicinity (20'- 50'N, 73'-129'E, M,>5), andmake an attempt to find features of anomalous variations of H values before the moderate strongearthquakes.

A Study on the Characteristics of Anomalies and Their Dynamic Relationship before the April 14, 2010 M_S 7.1 Yushu Earthquake

The authors studied the seismic activity, precursory anomalies and abnormal animal behavior before the April 14, 2010 Ms 7.1 Yushu earthquake. Analysis showed that anomalies were not rich before the Ms 7.1 Yushu earthquake, but prominent anomalies were observed, such as the long and mid-term trend anomaly characterized by the seismic quiescence of Ms6. 0, MsS. 0 and Ms4.0 earthquakes, and the anomalies in precursor observation of surface water temperature in Yushu and Delingha and electromagnetic measurement in Ping＇an. There were a large number of animal behavior anomalies appearing one week before the earthquake. An M4.7 earthquake occurred 130 minutes before the main shock. In this paper, we studied the dynamic process of the Yushu earthquake preparation using the earthquake focal mechanism solutions on the Bayan Har block boundary since 1996. The results show that the Kalakunlun M7.1 earthquake in 1996, the Mani M7.5 earthquake and the Yushu Ms7.1 earthquake have the same dynamic process. Long and mid-term trend anomalies may be related to the dynamics of evolution of different earthquakes. This paper also discusses the recurrence interval of strong earthquakes, foreshock identification and precursor observation of the Yushu Ms7. 1 earthquake.

Paleo-earthquake studies on the eastern section of the Kunlun fault

Roughly along the Animaqing Maji peak, the Kunlun fault section between the Tuosuo Lake and Kendingna (east Maqin) can be subdivided into two geometric segments: the Huashixia and the Maqin segments. These two segments behave differently in their Holocene slip rates and paleo-earthquake activities, with obviously higher paleo-seismic activity on the Huashixia segment than on Maqin segment. As many as four strong Holocene earthquakes are identified on the Huashixia segment from trenching and geomorphic studies. The recurrent interval for the latest three earthquakes are at about 500 a and 640 a, respectively. On the Maqin segment, at least three paleo-earthquake events can be defined from trenching, with a recurrent interval for the latest two events at about 1000 a. M = 7.5 earthquakes on Huashixia segment recur at every 411 a to 608 a with a characteristic slip at 5.75±0.57 m. Although the Maqin segment is less active, its accumulated strain energy during the long time period since last earthquake occurred (about 1070 a BP) deserves enough notice on its future earthquake probabilities.

The Holocene Activity Evidence of the Yema River-Daxue Mountain Fault in Western Qilian Mountain

Altyn Tagh fault controls the deformation characteristics of the northern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.The sinistral slip rate of the eastern segment of the fault reduces gradually where the reduction transforms into the deformation within Qilian Mountain,forming a series of thrust faults and strike-slip faults.Among them,the Yema River-Daxue Mountain fault is one of the important structural transform faults in the study area.Based on the differences of the geometrical characteristics and activities,the fault is divided into four segments,the Yema River segment,the Shibandun segment,the Liushapo segment and the Baishitougou segment,among which the former three are Holocene active faults,and the Baishitougou segment belongs to late Pleistocene fault.The excavated trenches imply a total of 6 paleoearthquake events,and at least 4 events have occurred during Holocene,whose occurrence times are 8300±700 yr BP,6605±140 yr BP,4540±350 yr BP,2098±47 yr BP,respectively.The recurrence interval is 2600±600 yr BP that is close to the lapsed time of the last one,2098±47 yr BP,which suggests that the Yema River-Daxue Mountain fault is in a high risk of major earthquakes in the future.The vertical coseismic displacements of the four Holocene paleoearthquake events are 100 cm,42 cm,40 cm and 50 cm,respectively,the horizontal coseismic displacements are 5 m,4.5-5.5 m,5-8 m and 4-5.5 m,separately,and then the reference magnitude of the paleoearthquake events is conjectured to be M7.6±0.1.

Long－ and intermediate－termseismic poten－tial of Fen－Wei seismic belt：active fault data application

Recurrence model for strong earthquakes on Fen Wei seismic belt is proposed on the basis of the collection and analysis of fault slip rate, paleoearthquake sequence, maximum displacement of each event etc. on 21 fault segments of the belt, which are active since late Late Pleistocene. And the long and intermediate term seismic potential of the belt has been evaluated through four approaches.

Cumulative frequency b value without upper bound magnitude and its regression determination

This paper points out that it is theoretically wrong for the traditional method to determine cumulatiove b value using linear regression and derive earthquake recurrence relation according to probability distribution or density function. As a result, it always systematically overestimated b value so as to underestimate the frequencies of the part of larger earthquakes. The smaller the actual b in the research area, or the smaller the magnitude range of the data in regression, or the smaller the magnitude interval, the larger the above deviation. So for an area with lower upper bound magnitude, if only historic earthquake data are used to determine b value by regression method, the b value will be obviously overestimated and systematic deviation of seismic hazard will be arised because the lower bound magnitude of reliable data is high and the magnitude range of data is small. In this paper, it is suggested to substitude cumulative b value without upper bound magnitude for conventional cumulative b value with upper bound magnitude, and the regression method is devloped to determine b value without upper bound magnitude.

Regularities of Seismicity of Western and Central Uzbekistan (Southwestern Part of Western Tien-Shan Region)

The paper discusses the spatial and temporal distribution of seismic activity in the southwestern part of the Western Tien Shan. The study identifies four groups of strong earthquakes that occurred in Western and Central Uzbekistan. The regularity of redistribution of the accumulated tectonic energy in the form of shuttle migration of seismicity with the recurrence rate of a group of strong earthquakes has been revealed. The synchronicity of periods of seismic activation of the Western Tien Shan (regional structure) and the Asian part of the Mediterranean-Asian seismic belt (structure of a large-regional scale) was found. At the same time, deviations from synchronicity are noted in the form of delays in the periods of seismic activation between the considered structures. The seismicity study revealed a deviation from the regularity of grouping of strong earthquakes in the seismic regime of the region. This was observed in the Gazli earthquakes. The strongest triple Gazli earthquakes of 1976 and 1984 with М = 7.0 - 7.3 were preceded by natural and technogenic triggers. Natural triggers included active fracturing (large fractures up to 100 km in length) in the north of Tamdybulak area, the absence any of tangible earthquakes in the epicentral area of Gazli for more than 40 years, and the appearance of small mud volcanoes—griffins before a strong earthquake. The technogenic triggers included a 40-year gas pumping at the Gazli fields and two underground nuclear explosions in 1966 (#273) and 1968 (#142) produced near the epicenter of the tectonic Gazli earthquakes of 1976 and 1984.

Late-Quaternary strong earthquakes on the seismogenic fault of the 1976 M_s7.8 Tangshan earthquake,Hebei,as revealed by drilling and trenching

Composite borehole profiling combined with trenching is an effective way to acquire evidence of past ruptures of buffed active faults. In this study, three composite borehole profiles and a large-scale trench excavation were carded out across the surface rupture zone of the 1976 Ms7.8 Tangshan earthquake. The following three major conclusions have been reached. （1） The surface rupture zone of the 1976 earthquake extends more than 47 km long to the south of Tangshan city, passing to the west of Sunjialou, to Daodi town in Fengnan County, to Xihe in Fengnan County. （2） The surface rupture zone is divided into south and north branches. The north branch has mainly fight-lateral strike-slip motion, and the vertical displacement of the surface is up on the west and down on the east. On the other hand, the vertical displacement of the south branch is up on the east and down on the west, accompanied by some right-lateral slip. Such a faulting style cannot be explained by the movement of a single normal or reverse fault, but is consistent with the vertical displacement field induced by the fight-lateral strike-slip of the fault belt. The drilling and trenching data from this study verify that such activity continued through the Late Quaternary on the Tangshan Fault. （3） The fault planes exhumed by trenching and the dislocations of strata revealed by the boreholes indicate that multiple faulting events occurred on the Tangshan Fault in the Late Quaternary. The timing of three ruptures prior to the 1976 earthquake was 7.61-8.13, 〉14.57, and 24.21-26.57 ka BP. Counting the earthquake of 1976, the recurrence interval of the four strong events is about 6.7 to 10.8 ka. On one of the three borehole profiles, the Niumaku profile, nine faulting events were detected since 75.18 ka BP with an average interval of 8.4 ka. In addition, this paper also discusses the difference between the Late Quaternary sedimentary environments to the north and south of Tangshan city based on stratum dating.

Seismites resulting from high-frequency, high-magnitude earthquakes in Latvia caused by Late Glacial glacio-isostatic uplift

Geologically extremely rapid changes in attitude by glacial rebound of the Earth crust after retreat of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet at the end of the last Weichsetian glaciation influenced the patae- ogeography of northern Europe. The up（ift of the Earth crust apparently was not gradual, but shock-wise, as the uplift was accompanied by frequent, high-magnitude earthquakes. This can be deduced from strongly deformed layers which are interpreted as seismites. Such seismites have been described from several coun- tries around the Baltic Sea, including Sweden, Germany and Poland. Now similarly deformed layers that must also be interpreted as seismites, have been discovered also in Latvia, a Baltic country that was covered by an ice sheet during the last glaciation. The seismites were found at two sites： Near Vatmiera in the NE part and near Rakuti in the SE part of the country. The seismites were found in sections of about 7 m and 4.5 m high, respectively, that consist mainly of glaciofluvial and gtaciotacustrine sands and silts. At the Vatmiera site, 7 seismites were found, and at the Rakuti site these were even 12 seismites. The two sections have not been dated precisely up tilt now, but lithological correlations and geomorpho- logical characteristics suggest that the sediments at the Vatmiera site cannot be older than 14.5 ka. Because the accumulation of the section did not take more than about 1000 years, the average recurrence time of the high-magnitude （M≥4.5-5.0） earthquakes must have been maximally only 100-150 years, possibly only 6-7 years. The sediments at Rakuti must also have formed within approx. 1000 years （17-16 ka）, implying a recurrence time of high-magnitude earthquakes of maximaUy once per 100-200 years.

Holocene slip rate and paleoearthquake records of the Salt Lake segment of the Northern Zhongtiaoshan Fault, Shanxi Province

The Northern Zhongtiaoshan Fault is a major deep fault at the southern margin of the Yuncheng Basin. There have been few studies on the fault, and the historical earthquakes are few and weak. However, the intensity of activity on the fault should never be underestimated. Through interpretations of aerial images, topography measurements and excavation of trenches, this paper studied the fault distribution, the surface deformation and the activity of the normal fault south of Salt Lake near the city of Yuncheng. By tracing faults in the three trenches, it was found that there had been at least three large paleoseismic events, at 1–3.5, 3.6–4.4 and 7.4–8.8 ka BP. Employing 14 C dating, we determined the same gravel layers in the uplifted side and downthrown side. Making differential Global Positioning System measurements of the vertical difference and topographic profile, we obtained the mean slip rate of the Northern Zhongtiaoshan Fault since 24.7 ka BP(0.75±0.05 mm/a). Using the results of relevant studies, we calculated the possible vertical fault displacement of one earthquake(2.35 m) and obtained the recurrence interval of characteristic earthquakes as 2940–3360 a after dividing the displacement by the mean slip rate.

Preliminary analysis of earthquake probability based on the synthetic seismic catalog

The analysis of seismic hazards relies on the statistical analysis of historical seismic data and the instrumental seismic catalog to obtain the regional earthquake recurrence interval and earthquake probability.The accuracy of analysis thus depends strongly on the completeness of the seismic data used.However,available seismic catalogs are too short or incomplete for the reliable analysis of the statistical characteristics of earthquakes.If a long-term synthetic seismic catalog can be generated using a physics-based numerical simulation,and the simulation results match the crustal deformation,seismicity,and other observations,then such a synthetic catalog helps us to further understand the characteristics of seismic activity and analyze the regional seismic hazard.In this paper,taking the northeastern Tibetan Plateau as a case study,we establish a three-dimensional visco-elastoplastic finite-element model to simulate earthquake cycles and the spatiotemporal evolution of earthquakes on the model fault system and obtain a seismic catalog on a time scale of tens of thousands of years.On the basis that the model satisfies the regional geodynamics of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau,we analyze seismicity on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau using the simulated synthetic earthquake catalog.The characteristics of earthquake recurrence at different locations and different magnitudes,and the long-term average probability of earthquake occurrence within the fault system on the northeastern Tibetan plateau are studied.The results are a reference for regional seismic hazard assessment and provide a basis for the physics-based numerical prediction of earthquakes.